GoBills808 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 53 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: You should google circular logic... We are at THE BEGINNING of 2024, not the end. If you compare the receiving options of the Bills on day 1 2024 to the Chiefs on day 1 2023, the Bills win in a landslide. You don't have to look any further than the fact that MVS was a starter for the Chiefs (10 games) and is 5th on the Bills depth chart. By the end of the season, SOMEBODY on the Bills will have a career season and close to 1000 yards, maybe even two or three somebodies. It might be Coleman (who is a better prospect than Rice was) or Shakir (who is a better player than Watson) or Mack Hollins (who clearly beat out MVS in camp). That is to say nothing of the Bills best WR, Curtis Samuel, who is light years better than Hardman/Moore/Toney. And, quite honestly, I don't think the gap between 2023 Kelce and 2024 Kincaid is enough to cover that spread above. Flat out, the Bills are gonna throw 500+ times this year. Josh Allen is gonna pass for 4000 yards and somebody is gonna catch those balls and accumulate those yards. There will be a Rice on this team...it's bad faith to act like there won't be. Odds are it is Shakir or Samuel (or both?). The Chiefs didn't hit on some hidden gem...they gave a guy with decent skills a bunch of targets from a great QB. There are probably 100 WR in the NFL that could do that, including 2 or 3 on the Bills. You don't see any inconsistency in saying 'I don't think the gap between 2023 Kelce and 2024 Kincaid is enough to cover that spread above' while also saying 'we are at the beginning of 2024 and not the end'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey152 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You don't see any inconsistency in saying 'I don't think the gap between 2023 Kelce and 2024 Kincaid is enough to cover that spread above' while also saying 'we are at the beginning of 2024 and not the end'? No? My projections for Kincaid in 2024 are similar to what I would have projected for Kelce in 2023...around 100 catches for 1000 yards and 6-12 TDs. Confidence level on Kelce would obviously be higher, but Kelce is 10 years older than Dalton. I expected regression from Kelce and I expect progression from Dalton, to the point where 2023 Kelce and 2024 Dalton have similar projections. Definitely not so different that it would make up for a clearly inferior receiving core. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, BillsVet said: Hollins...didn't get 2.25M to be a blocker. And he's listed at the top of their depth chart so he'll likely get significant PT. Does it really need to be said that in a post-1960 NFL, your WR2 has to be something of a threat beyond 1.7 catches and 21 yards per game over his last 4 seasons? He's a strong candidate for 2024's version of Harty and Sherfield...on the cheap WR's who won't help Josh much. And a lot of solid TSW posters have observed what I'm saying: that Mack Hollins and MVS are nowhere near the caliber of starting NFL receivers anymore. They shouldn't even be primary depth and especially not when Josh Allen is your QB. You’re saying he’s a WR2. I’m saying what Brady is saying; that they are looking at the WRs as interchangeable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: No? My projections for Kincaid in 2024 are similar to what I would have projected for Kelce in 2023...around 100 catches for 1000 yards and 6-12 TDs. Confidence level on Kelce would obviously be higher, but Kelce is 10 years older than Dalton. I expected regression from Kelce and I expect progression from Dalton, to the point where 2023 Kelce and 2024 Dalton have similar projections. Definitely not so different that it would make up for a clearly inferior receiving core. You said to compare the Bills receiving options day 1 2024 to Chiefs day 1 2023 and the Bills win in a landslide...presumably because you wanted to keep Rice at rookie stat level as a comp for our rookie in Coleman, which is fine but Kincaid day 1 2024 is not a 1000 yard guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 35 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: People don't have any idea what Hollins role this year will be. They see WR2 in a "start of the season depth chart" and think he is going to get 90 targets like Davis got. I damn well guarantee he is not getting 87% of the offensive snaps which is what Davis averaged the last 2 years. Instead of having some patience to see what the O will look like some enjoying ranting and raving before there is anything substantial. No one sees that. What we see is Mack Hollins’ spot on the depth chart and ask, “how the hell is that possible in 2024? How can you have Mack Hollins as a guy playing snaps with Josh Allen as the QB?” That’s where the disconnect is!! It isn’t about Hollins playing 87% of the snaps. It’s about the Bills needing to play a scrub like Hollins at all because they neglected the 2nd (or 3rd) most important position in football. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey152 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You said to compare the Bills receiving options day 1 2024 to Chiefs day 1 2023 and the Bills win in a landslide...presumably because you wanted to keep Rice at rookie stat level as a comp for our rookie in Coleman, which is fine but Kincaid day 1 2024 is not a 1000 yard guy Why not? If you drop week 13 and 14 (he was hurt with a shoulder injury), his last 9 games (basically after the concussion) in the regular season he had 68 targets, 55 catches and 548 yards. Over 17 games, that projects to 128 targets, 103 catches and 1,035 yards. That doesn't even consider he is going into his second year now, and the two targets ahead of him on the depth chart are gone. Edited September 4 by Mikey152 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: No one sees that. What we see is Mack Hollins’ spot on the depth chart and ask, “how the hell is that possible in 2024? How can you have Mack Hollins as a guy playing snaps with Josh Allen as the QB?” That’s where the disconnect is!! It isn’t about Hollins playing 87% of the snaps. It’s about the Bills needing to play a scrub like Hollins at all because they neglected the 2nd (or 3rd) most important position in football. I hear what you guys are saying. No one, foremost Brandon Beane thought anything like this could have happened a year ago. Davis got overpaid AND has not produced near enough to keep on the team. Davis was the 2nd highest paid WR in the FA market. Samuel was the 5th. Diggs went a bit "mental" and really put a knife in Allens back. He could of "eased up" on all of this, but evidently kept it up where Beane had no choice but to dump him for what he could get. Throwing his dead cap on top of the other moves that needed to happen put things in a bad situation. Could Beane have signed another high dollar WR? Some say he should have but he has made the choice to go with Samuel, Hollins and MVS. He got a 1st pick WR in the draft. Evidently not the one most vocal poster seemed to have wanted. Could have drafted another WR in later rounds but I guarantee no matter how that player will play he would be the WR2 on the initial depth chart. What WR FA did you want? Here is the list. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2024/position/wr/sort/contract_average/dir/desc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I hear what you guys are saying. No one, foremost Brandon Beane thought anything like this could have happened a year ago. Davis got overpaid AND has not produced near enough to keep on the team. Davis was the 2nd highest paid WR in the FA market. Samuel was the 5th. Diggs went a bit "mental" and really put a knife in Allens back. He could of "eased up" on all of this, but evidently kept it up where Beane had no choice but to dump him for what he could get. Throwing his dead cap on top of the other moves that needed to happen put things in a bad situation. Could Beane have signed another high dollar WR? Some say he should have but he has made the choice to go with Samuel, Hollins and MVS. He got a 1st pick WR in the draft. Evidently not the one most vocal poster seemed to have wanted. Could have drafted another WR in later rounds but I guarantee no matter how that player will play he would be the WR2 on the initial depth chart. What WR FA did you want? Here is the list. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2024/position/wr/sort/contract_average/dir/desc I might have done an Elam for Dionte Johnson trade (that about equals what Carolina paid), but I'm not sure that would have moved the needle all that much. I probably would have picked Hollywood Brown instead of Samuel, but I think Joe Brady asked for Samuel. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I hear what you guys are saying. No one, foremost Brandon Beane thought anything like this could have happened a year ago. Davis got overpaid AND has not produced near enough to keep on the team. Davis was the 2nd highest paid WR in the FA market. Samuel was the 5th. Diggs went a bit "mental" and really put a knife in Allens back. He could of "eased up" on all of this, but evidently kept it up where Beane had no choice but to dump him for what he could get. Throwing his dead cap on top of the other moves that needed to happen put things in a bad situation. Could Beane have signed another high dollar WR? Some say he should have but he has made the choice to go with Samuel, Hollins and MVS. He got a 1st pick WR in the draft. Evidently not the one most vocal poster seemed to have wanted. Could have drafted another WR in later rounds but I guarantee no matter how that player will play he would be the WR2 on the initial depth chart. What WR FA did you want? Here is the list. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2024/position/wr/sort/contract_average/dir/desc I liked the Samuel addition. I’m on record as saying that they either had to trade for Ayiuk, Higgins, etc.., trade up to draft 1 of the Big 3 or take AT LEAST 2 of the top 10-15 WRs (Coleman MAY have been 1 but had him near 15). They needed a number 1. That was clear as day. Those were the avenues to get 1. They had to get a proven star, 1 of the Big 3, or 2 bites at the apple (McConkey and Mitchell for example). Taking a raw WR, after trading back twice, doesn’t do much to address your biggest hole. I don’t blame the players for not being good enough. I blame the organization for letting it get here. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, Low Positive said: I might have done an Elam for Dionte Johnson trade (that about equals what Carolina paid), but I'm not sure that would have moved the needle all that much. I probably would have picked Hollywood Brown instead of Samuel, but I think Joe Brady asked for Samuel. I agree there were other options but nothing that Beane saw being a big deal. Johnson is a one-year rental for $10M. I'm not saying Beane did a great job with the WR room. I am saying it was a BAD situation he was put in. I also don't think Hollins is the WR2 no matter what the depth chart says. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: No one, foremost Brandon Beane thought anything like this could have happened a year ago. Davis got overpaid AND has not produced near enough to keep on the team. Davis was the 2nd highest paid WR in the FA market. This is factually incorrect. There are lots of folks, myself included, who knew that Davis’ days were certainly numbered and that a replacement for him and Diggs as well needed to be targeted ASAP. The Bills did not do so. i will not cry crocodile tears for a team that had 3 offseason to plan for Davis’ and even Diggs departures, especially when folks like @HappyDays and @GunnerBill and @BADOLBILZ have made several topics spanning years about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I liked the Samuel addition. I’m on record as saying that they either had to trade for Ayiuk, Higgins, etc.., trade up to draft 1 of the Big 3 or take AT LEAST 2 of the top 10-15 WRs (Coleman MAY have been 1 but had him near 15). They needed a number 1. That was clear as day. Those were the avenues to get 1. They had to get a proven star, 1 of the Big 3, or 2 bites at the apple (McConkey and Mitchell for example). Taking a raw WR, after trading back twice, doesn’t do much to address your biggest hole. I don’t blame the players for not being good enough. I blame the organization for letting it get here. I just didn't see any Ayiuk type trade happening. I personally didn't want Beane to trade up into the top 10. Too much for me. I probably would have taken another WR but he didn't. I'm not elated with the WR room, but I can see how it happened. We will see how it works out starting Sunday. 1 minute ago, FireChans said: This is factually incorrect. There are lots of folks, myself included, who knew that Davis’ days were certainly numbered and that a replacement for him and Diggs as well needed to be targeted ASAP. The Bills did not do so. i will not cry crocodile tears for a team that had 3 offseason to plan for Davis’ and even Diggs departures, especially when folks like @HappyDays and @GunnerBill and @BADOLBILZ have made several topics spanning years about it. Dude. I'm giving my thoughts on the situation. You don't have to agree but stop with the "crocodile tears" type comments. Read my other replies above. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I just didn't see any Ayiuk type trade happening. I personally didn't want Beane to trade up into the top 10. Too much for me. I probably would have taken another WR but he didn't. I'm not elated with the WR room, but I can see how it happened. We will see how it works out starting Sunday. Dude. I'm giving my thoughts on the situation. You don't have to agree but stop with the "crocodile tears" type comments. Read my other replies above. Your thoughts are very welcome. I only take issue with the “no one could have seen this coming.” It’s just fundamentally untrue and the proof is written all over TBD. That doesn’t mean that Brandon Beane sucks, but he screwed this up and other folks are on record that he was screwing this up. Hopefully Brady is a genius and can make this group greater than the sum of its parts. We shall see on Sunday! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 minute ago, FireChans said: Your thoughts are very welcome. I only take issue with the “no one could have seen this coming.” It’s just fundamentally untrue and the proof is written all over TBD. That doesn’t mean that Brandon Beane sucks, but he screwed this up and other folks are on record that he was screwing this up. Hopefully Brady is a genius and can make this group greater than the sum of its parts. We shall see on Sunday! Let me put it this way. I do believe both Beane and Josh thought that Diggs could be a member of the team for one more year before free agency. Something really went off the rails with Diggs in March IMO. I like Diggs a lot but I'm sticking with the "knife in the back" thing. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Let me put it this way. I do believe both Beane and Josh thought that Diggs could be a member of the team for one more year before free agency. Something really went off the rails with Diggs in March IMO. I like Diggs a lot but I'm sticking with the "knife in the back" thing. I say they expected at least one more year out of Diggs. He had to stir the pot or shake it up or whatever. He could help us this year under the right circumstances, but he has to want to. I’m glad he’s gone, and I’m thrilled they got a second for him next year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Just now, ColoradoBills said: Let me put it this way. I do believe both Beane and Josh thought that Diggs could be a member of the team for one more year before free agency. Something really went off the rails with Diggs in March IMO. I like Diggs a lot but I'm sticking with the "knife in the back" thing. Diggs was going on 30 my man. His days were numbered as a great NFL player. Nagging injury that ruins a career or just falling off talent-wise has happened to far better receivers than Diggs around that age. Not only that, he has he come out and said he wanted out prior to the 2023 season. I find it hard to believe Beane had no idea prior to the 2024 offseason. Regardless, the chickens came home to roost. Here is a comment from the 2022 off-season. ”People can disagree but I think this deal ends with 2-3 years left and a lot of dead money” - @BADOLBILZ Diggs was a mercurial player with a history of forcing himself off teams. Was it unreasonable for Beane to expect him to play good solider after getting paid? IMO, no. Is it unreasonable to expect Beane to have a better plan than Mack Hollins if he demanded a trade/fell off/got hurt? IMO, no, as well. I don’t want to harp on the WR topic but it’s near and dear to my heart because I have been banging on the table for the Bills to dedicate serious assets to the position for almost 4 years. So it’s really frustrating to watch at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 minute ago, Augie said: I say they expected at least one more year out of Diggs. He had to stir the pot or shake it up or whatever. He could help us this year under the right circumstances, but he has to want to. I’m glad he’s gone, and I’m thrilled they got a second for him next year. I agree. The timeline fits it. The early FA signings were to replace Davis and the draft this year (and next) would have set up Diggs replacement. Diggs seen the handwriting and had a fit about it. I believe he forced Beane to trade him. It's all water under the bridge now and I am interested to see what Josh and Brady can do with the WRs and TEs. Wouldn't it be "poetic justice" to lift a Lombardi without Diggs. 5 minutes ago, FireChans said: Diggs was going on 30 my man. His days were numbered as a great NFL player. Nagging injury that ruins a career or just falling off talent-wise has happened to far better receivers than Diggs around that age. Not only that, he has he come out and said he wanted out prior to the 2023 season. I find it hard to believe Beane had no idea prior to the 2024 offseason. Regardless, the chickens came home to roost. Here is a comment from the 2022 off-season. ”People can disagree but I think this deal ends with 2-3 years left and a lot of dead money” - @BADOLBILZ Diggs was a mercurial player with a history of forcing himself off teams. Was it unreasonable for Beane to expect him to play good solider after getting paid? IMO, no. Is it unreasonable to expect Beane to have a better plan than Mack Hollins if he demanded a trade/fell off/got hurt? IMO, no, as well. I don’t want to harp on the WR topic but it’s near and dear to my heart because I have been banging on the table for the Bills to dedicate serious assets to the position for almost 4 years. So it’s really frustrating to watch at this point. All that being said I can't believe Beane wanted to trade Diggs this spring and eat all that cap. But that's me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 26 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Let me put it this way. I do believe both Beane and Josh thought that Diggs could be a member of the team for one more year before free agency. Something really went off the rails with Diggs in March IMO. I like Diggs a lot but I'm sticking with the "knife in the back" thing. Nah I'm sorry. We know not just from what I have heard from sources within the Bills but what others have said too that the Diggs issue has its roots in the middle of the 2022 season and was fundamentally a breakdown in his relationship with Josh (I liken it to that romantic relationship we have all had that was always testy and vibrant and the sex was amazing but that we deep down knew was burning too bright and would burn out quickly). If the Bills were not at least planning for the possibility a year hence that Diggs could be done here after 2023 then they were foolish in the extreme. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: All that being said I can't believe Beane wanted to trade Diggs this spring and eat all that cap. But that's me. It's not just you. It strains my belief. I think 2 things happened: 1) Diggs made it clear in January that he didn't want to be here, was not gonna be doing any "fence mending" work in the off-season, and would raise a dust if he didn't get his targets during the Bills 2023 season 2) the Diggs camp did some calling and came up with a 2nd round pick (next year, but still) as comp to trade him somewhere he wanted to go Unless you have inside knowledge, I disbelieve any new "knife in the back" theory of Spring 2023. I mean, what even would that be? Diggs and Allen were both saying all the right things in interviews, they weren't in the same place at the same time.... Someone here with some insider connections said it was an "open secret" at the Senior Bowl that the Bills were willing to trade Diggs for the right price, but the going rate for a high-paid WR older than 30 with a crap 2nd half of the season was like a 4th, less than the Bills would accept. I believe the Houston trade was a "make me move" offer after the Bills had decided to coexist with Diggs for another season. Edited September 4 by Beck Water 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Nah I'm sorry. We know not just from what I have heard from sources within the Bills but what others have said too that the Diggs issue has its roots in the middle of the 2022 season and was fundamentally a breakdown in his relationship with Josh (I liken it to that romantic relationship we have all had that was always testy and vibrant and the sex was amazing but that we deep down knew was burning too bright and would burn out quickly). If the Bills were not at least planning for the possibility a year hence that Diggs could be done here after 2023 then they were foolish in the extreme. It is known there was strain with Diggs. It's who he is. Beane converted $6.7M signing bonus in March of 2023. If he (and anyone else in the organization) KNEW he was gone at the end of the year that wouldn't have happened Imo. That would have set up way too much dead cap being planned. IMO Beane and Josh believed Diggs would be a mature man and play one more year. Diggs is nothing but emotion. He did/said something in March that ended it with Josh and Beane. That's how I see it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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