When is it time for QB under Josh’s wings?

[QCity]

5 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Jimmy Garrapolo was drafted in 2014, Brady’s age 37 season. 

 

Matt Cassel was drafted with a 7th rd pick in 2005 when Brady was 28. Flipped him for a 2nd round pick. Not a bad investment.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Never. It's not the starting QBs job to mentor his replacement. 

I'm fine with drafting a project QB every other year or so and see if you strike gold. 

[NeverOutNick]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd worry about being able to extend him first tbh

100%. Josh is the once in a lifetime QB that can play until he’s 40 for us. Having a QB to groom should be the last thing on our minds. Giving him everything he needs offensively, coaching, FO should be the only priority so that he stays in Buffalo the next 10 years 

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Matt Cassel was drafted with a 7th rd pick in 2005 when Brady was 28. Flipped him for a 2nd round pick. Not a bad investment.

 

People think that happens all the time, but it doesn’t anymore with the QB cost.  Just look at this off season:

Justin Fields 1st round pick - traded for a 6th

Sam Howell - break even 5th round pick - traded for 3rd and 5th, but gave back lower 4th and 6th

Kenny Pickett 1st round pick - traded for a 3rd and 2 7ths, but had to included a 4th

Mac Jones 1st round pick - Traded for a 6th

 

Sam Howell basically cost Washington a 4th, 5th, and 6th to get a 3rd and a 5th.

 

What does still work is trading your very, old and breaking down elite QB to get picks like Russell Wilson to the Broncos, or Rodgers to the Jets, or even Matt Ryan to Indy for a 3rd or Watson to the Browns,

 

So it is no longer near as profitable to draft and trade as you are wasting the short window where QBs are cheap and the only way it works is if your starter is hurt and the young guy plays a lot and then it seems you are much better off trading the older Elite QB away than the young QB.

 

If you want to grab a 5th rounder great, but just don’t expect much from them and expect a more breakeven return than we saw 20 years ago with Cassel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[QCity]

24 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

People think that happens all the time, but it doesn’t anymore with the QB cost.  Just look at this off season:

Justin Fields 1st round pick - traded for a 6th

Sam Howell - break even 5th round pick - traded for 3rd and 5th, but gave back lower 4th and 6th

Kenny Pickett 1st round pick - traded for a 3rd and 2 7ths, but had to included a 4th

Mac Jones 1st round pick - Traded for a 6th

 

Sam Howell basically cost Washington a 4th, 5th, and 6th to get a 3rd and a 5th.

 

What does still work is trading your very, old and breaking down elite QB to get picks like Russell Wilson to the Broncos, or Rodgers to the Jets, or even Matt Ryan to Indy for a 3rd or Watson to the Browns,

 

So it is no longer near as profitable to draft and trade as you are wasting the short window where QBs are cheap and the only way it works is if your starter is hurt and the young guy plays a lot and then it seems you are much better off trading the older Elite QB away than the young QB.

 

If you want to grab a 5th rounder great, but just don’t expect much from them and expect a more breakeven return than we saw 20 years ago with Cassel.

 

 

Ok, but that's not what we're talking about here. Players like Fields and Mac Jones were 1st round picks drafted to be immediate starters. When 1st round picks flame out, you are always going to get pennies on the dollar back.

 

We are talking about late-round picks specifically drafted to be a backup. The Pats didn't draft Cassel to supplant Brady. The best case scenario is you catch lightning in a bottle and get a stud, which is akin to winning the lottery. Worst case is that the player gets cut after 2 years. Most likely outcome is that the player is an adequate backup for 4 years then leaves via free agency. The question is if the gamble is worth it to use 6th and 7th round picks on this approach. 

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, QCity said:

 

Matt Cassel was drafted with a 7th rd pick in 2005 when Brady was 28. Flipped him for a 2nd round pick. Not a bad investment.

Exactly.  That's why I would love for the Bills to take a flyer on a QB in the later rounds of the draft every few years.  Yes, you are grooming a possible replacement in case the worst happens, like an Andrew Luck situation.  However, I think the bigger reason is as an asset.  Having a young unknown QB is the best way for good teams to collect on investment.  Yes, Matt Cassel is an example and if Bellichick hadn't done Garropolo a solid and traded him to SF, he could've gotten a mind for him from Cleveland or a similar team.  Look at what we paid for Rob Johnson, or what the Seahawks paid for Matt Flynn in free agency (and what GB could've gotten for him if they still had him under contract).  Teams fall in love with backups on great teams who appear in pre-season and a few spot regular season games.  It's a great investment.  If Josh goes down, this teams going nowhere so have a backup who you could flip for some picks.  Could you imagine what we could get for Nathan Peterman if he were drafted two years ago?

[fergie's ire]

55 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

People think that happens all the time, but it doesn’t anymore with the QB cost.  Just look at this off season:

Justin Fields 1st round pick - traded for a 6th

Sam Howell - break even 5th round pick - traded for 3rd and 5th, but gave back lower 4th and 6th

Kenny Pickett 1st round pick - traded for a 3rd and 2 7ths, but had to included a 4th

Mac Jones 1st round pick - Traded for a 6th

 

Sam Howell basically cost Washington a 4th, 5th, and 6th to get a 3rd and a 5th.

 

What does still work is trading your very, old and breaking down elite QB to get picks like Russell Wilson to the Broncos, or Rodgers to the Jets, or even Matt Ryan to Indy for a 3rd or Watson to the Browns,

 

So it is no longer near as profitable to draft and trade as you are wasting the short window where QBs are cheap and the only way it works is if your starter is hurt and the young guy plays a lot and then it seems you are much better off trading the older Elite QB away than the young QB.

 

If you want to grab a 5th rounder great, but just don’t expect much from them and expect a more breakeven return than we saw 20 years ago with Cassel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason these players didn't return investment is that they played.  Other teams saw what they were.  When QBs don't play...or better yet appear in just a few games when teams don't know how to prepare for them, people can become convinced they are great....like Gardiner Minchew or Jake Browning.  Daniel Jones threw for over 300 yards in his first game and looked GREAT.  If that game came in a substitute role and he went back to the bench you could end up with teams giving multiple firsts to get him....but once you see enough of him that's when a Matt Cassel becomes meh.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

19 hours ago, JROC INTEL said:

This is my first thread here. I’m wondering what you guys think. QB is obviously such an important position for the success of a franchise. At what point do you tailor a QB under Josh to better transition into the next era. I love how the Packers make an effort to do this and I think it’s very important personally. I know it’s expensive but it’s also a team investment. I also think it makes more sense when you have an elite QB to be a mentor. Maybe I just have PTSD from the 2000’s but I’d hate to see Buffalo without a promising QB. Thoughts?
 

I was hoping the Bills drafted Joe Milton in the later rds he has a cannon of a arm and some running ability. The Pats grabbed him and now he's pretty much in the thick of the QB competition in New England.  

 

The Bills should always be looking to find a QB in the draft to develop and you never know when Allen will get hurt as well . I hate what the Bills been doing at backup recently. 

[FireChans]

20 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd worry about being able to extend him first tbh

Meh, who was the last QB of Josh’s caliber that walked in FA in the middle of their prime?

 

This isn’t the NBA. 
 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, and I think they should do their best to make sure Josh doesn’t second guess sticking around, but it’s pretty unlikely imo. 
 

Guys who are franchise QB’s don’t leave the building in general, especially if the team is contending every year. The Chargers have much more to fear with Herbert next extension, and even he leapt at his first extension in that dysfunctional mess.

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

100%. Josh is the once in a lifetime QB that can play until he’s 40 for us. Having a QB to groom should be the last thing on our minds. Giving him everything he needs offensively, coaching, FO should be the only priority so that he stays in Buffalo the next 10 years 

I don’t think Josh will play til 40, personally but it depends on how the rest of his career goes.

[zevo]

19 hours ago, mrags said:

Probably sooner than later considering Josh will want off this team as soon as he realizes what Diggs realized. He’ll never win a championship here in Buffalo. 

dude, what's the point of even being a fan of the bills with this sentiment?

[mrags]

25 minutes ago, zevo said:

dude, what's the point of even being a fan of the bills with this sentiment?

I’m a realist 

[mrags]

51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Meh, who was the last QB of Josh’s caliber that walked in FA in the middle of their prime?

 

This isn’t the NBA. 
 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, and I think they should do their best to make sure Josh doesn’t second guess sticking around, but it’s pretty unlikely imo. 
 

Guys who are franchise QB’s don’t leave the building in general, especially if the team is contending every year. The Chargers have much more to fear with Herbert next extension, and even he leapt at his first extension in that dysfunctional mess.

I don’t think Josh will play til 40, personally but it depends on how the rest of his career goes.

Well, when he sees that the FO doesn’t want to give him weapons and another team promises to give him top talent at the WR position to play with, I’d imagine it COULD change his mind. 
 

I do believe he wants to be here. I do believe he wants to win a championship here. I do believe that part, or even most of him wants to retire a Bill. But as the time goes by, and the California kid born and raised starts to question weather the people in charge will provide him with what he needs, things MAY change. He lives in SoCal in the off season. His new squeeze is in Hollywood. His family all lives in California. His favorite childhood team growing up was the 49ers. I could easily see the Chargers moving on from Herbert at some point, or the Rams after Stafford retires, or maybe Purdy proves he’s not the guy and it was more about what was around him. 
 

like I said, I think he wants to be here, but how many people have been married and got a divorce? There was once love for that other person, and at some point, feelings changed. Many things could be the cause of it. Time will tell. 
 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well, when he sees that the FO doesn’t want to give him weapons and another team promises to give him top talent at the WR position to play with, I’d imagine it COULD change his mind. 
 

I do believe he wants to be here. I do believe he wants to win a championship here. I do believe that part, or even most of him wants to retire a Bill. But as the time goes by, and the California kid born and raised starts to question weather the people in charge will provide him with what he needs, things MAY change. He lives in SoCal in the off season. His new squeeze is in Hollywood. His family all lives in California. His favorite childhood team growing up was the 49ers. I could easily see the Chargers moving on from Herbert at some point, or the Rams after Stafford retires, or maybe Purdy proves he’s not the guy and it was more about what was around him. 
 

like I said, I think he wants to be here, but how many people have been married and got a divorce? There was once love for that other person, and at some point, feelings changed. Many things could be the cause of it. Time will tell. 
 

I asked it rhetorically, but when was the last time this happened? 
 

The last I can remember was Peyton Manning but that was more the Colts decision because of major health concerns.

[C.Biscuit97]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd worry about being able to extend him first tbh

Why even waste your time worrying about that? When was the last time an in their prime, franchisee never left their team without some weird injury or situation? 
 

and this is the perfect time to develop a guy.  I’m sure he won’t amount to anything but a guy like Joe Milton would have been a nice developmental guy. He cost basically nothing and has similar attributes as Allen. The Pats spent 2nd and 3rd rounders when they had Brady. As a result, they went 4-0 when he was suspended. I’m so sick of settling for these scrub qbs. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why even waste your time worrying about that? When was the last time an in their prime, franchisee never left their team without some weird injury or situation? 
 

and this is the perfect time to develop a guy.  I’m sure he won’t amount to anything but a guy like Joe Milton would have been a nice developmental guy. He cost basically nothing and has similar attributes as Allen. The Pats spent 2nd and 3rd rounders when they had Brady. As a result, they went 4-0 when he was suspended. I’m so sick of settling for these scrub qbs. 

I hear ya, but the Pats went 3-1 when he got suspended. That was when Rex shut out Jacoby Brissett.

 

Brady was 39 that season. The end was reasonably expected to be near.

 

I don’t see the value in any investment in the backup QB at this point in Josh’s career. It’s a floor raiser, not a ceiling elevator. When Josh is 34 and we aren’t sure when he’s gonna stop, sure. When we are scraping and clawing to win a Super Bowl while he’s in his 20s? Not for me.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why even waste your time worrying about that? When was the last time an in their prime, franchisee never left their team without some weird injury or situation? 
 

and this is the perfect time to develop a guy.  I’m sure he won’t amount to anything but a guy like Joe Milton would have been a nice developmental guy. He cost basically nothing and has similar attributes as Allen. The Pats spent 2nd and 3rd rounders when they had Brady. As a result, they went 4-0 when he was suspended. I’m so sick of settling for these scrub qbs. 

read much😂😂

 

Extending QB1>>worrying about QB2

[Saxum]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This isn't the 70's, 80's, or early 90's. You don't groom a QB for years anymore. You lose your QB? You trade for one or you Draft one and you play them.

 

 

Unless you are Packers who have had three good ones in a row.

[Dr.Sack]

7 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Matt Cassel was drafted with a 7th rd pick in 2005 when Brady was 28. Flipped him for a 2nd round pick. Not a bad investment.

That was a good deal, buy low sell high. B/n Bledsoe & Cassel Pats got great draft capital. Jimmy G was a 2nd rounder, and reports at the time were he was the heir apparent. 

Edited August 17 by Dr.Sack

[peterpan]

I’ve said since at least 2020, that the bills should have a late round QB as backup.  This team should not be wasting salary cap and a higher paid veteran backup.  A late round drafted guy would be real cheap and could end up being a Brock Purdy or J garapolo, who is then traded for a 1st. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I hear ya, but the Pats went 3-1 when he got suspended. That was when Rex shut out Jacoby Brissett.

 

Brady was 39 that season. The end was reasonably expected to be near.

 

I don’t see the value in any investment in the backup QB at this point in Josh’s career. It’s a floor raiser, not a ceiling elevator. When Josh is 34 and we aren’t sure when he’s gonna stop, sure. When we are scraping and clawing to win a Super Bowl while he’s in his 20s? Not for me.

Fair but they took Kevin O’Connell in the 3rd in 2008 and Mallett in the 3rd in 2008. 
 

Guys later in the draft are cheaper than Tribusky, Barkley, or Kyle Allen and are probably better because it won’t take much. Plus, they could be trade pieces in the future. And last year reports were the Bills were in on Tre Lance as well. 

 

we just saw the 49ers nearly when a SB with a 7th rounder. I don’t know we have to settle for passed around garbage. It’s Allen or bust but it’s weird that for being the most important position in sports, some fans just don’t care about backup qbs and are fine settling.