Lets win the Super Bowl thought Exercise

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Chaos’ horse is “McD sucks.”

McD does suck.

He keeps riding it.

It angers a bunch of you.

Razumiješ li?

 

 

It doesn’t anger me in the least. I don’t use the ignore feature, I’m pretty good at skimming over nonsense. The guy with the second most wins in the NFL over the last 5 years and the best winning percentage of any Bills coach ever does not suck. He may not have any Super Bowl trophies (yet), but he has the last four AFCE titles. If you think that sucks, your value here is just for the humor. Carry on. 

[Buffalo Boy]

9 minutes ago, Chaos said:

These poll results certainly do not reflect public opinion at large.  But I think identifying the head coach as the biggest gap, in this poll does correctly reflect the broader bettor opinion, which is what is reflected in the odds.  I think the most common assesment is that Reid is HC1 in the NFL.  McDermott is HC7 to 11. While Mahomes is regarded as QB1 and Allen is regarded as QB2.  Bettors generally understand the importance of coaching. 

This is wrong. 

If I have a horse, the horse is that Allen is every bit as good as Mahomes.

Maybe it’s my horse then but it sure seems like you’ve been riding it😜

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Chaos said:

These poll results certainly do not reflect public opinion at large.  But I think identifying the head coach as the biggest gap, in this poll does correctly reflect the broader bettor opinion, which is what is reflected in the odds.  I think the most common assesment is that Reid is HC1 in the NFL.  McDermott is HC7 to 11. While Mahomes is regarded as QB1 and Allen is regarded as QB2.  Bettors generally understand the importance of coaching. 

This is wrong. 

If I have a horse, the horse is that Allen is every bit as good as Mahomes.

 

Top end talent and coaching are similar right now in terms of bigger gap. But it is proven over time it is Quarterbacks that move NFL betting lines more than anything else. And wider public opinion is NOT on your horse. Mahomes would move lines if he moved teams even if the other team was getting Allen or Burrow or Stroud or whoever the other way. 

[Buffalo Boy]

10 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It doesn’t anger me in the least. I don’t use the ignore feature, I’m pretty good at skimming over nonsense. The guy with the second most wins in the NFL over the last 5 years and the best winning percentage of any Bills coach ever does not suck. He may not have any Super Bowl trophies (yet), but he has the last four AFCE titles. If you think that sucks, your value here is just for the humor. Carry on. 

“ You play to win the game.”

McD can’t win the big games. He has lost some of them egregiously.

 

If AFCE crown is enough for you, cool beans. But make no mistake, Without Josh, he has none of even those.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Right now I think all three would see the Bills odds shorten and the Chiefs odds drift. 

 

As of right here today I think KC has a better Head Coach, a better Quarterback and more top end talent on its overall roster without sacrificing depth. I think in previous years the roster one would have been a coin flip. The Bills were always deeper but with less top end talent. They are not even deeper this year. 

Correct.

 

they have the advantage at HC, QB and roster talent going into 2024.

 

a swap of any of them would increase our odds and decrease theirs.

 

The Bills roster is where the gap has gotten larger in 2024. We had clear “guys” in years past. White, Milano, Hyde, Poyer etc etc. Guys who were high level performers for most of their time here and would be no-brainers on a “who are the 7 best Bills players” list.

 

Going into 2024, in light of the Milano injury, who is the second best player on the team? Ed Oliver maybe? Who is the third best? I think it might be Curtis Samuel?

 

2024 is proof positive of the talent dearth facing the Bills. This team needs a few draft picks to really pop to get back to where we were in 2020-21.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Correct.

 

they have the advantage at HC, QB and roster talent going into 2024.

 

a swap of any of them would increase our odds and decrease theirs.

 

The Bills roster is where the gap has gotten larger in 2024. We had clear “guys” in years past. White, Milano, Hyde, Poyer etc etc. Guys who were high level performers for most of their time here and would be no-brainers on a “who are the 7 best Bills players” list.

 

Going into 2024, in light of the Milano injury, who is the second best player on the team? Ed Oliver maybe? Who is the third best? I think it might be Curtis Samuel?

 

2024 is proof positive of the talent dearth facing the Bills. This team needs a few draft picks to really pop to get back to where we were in 2020-21.

 

Totally agree. And yea, Ed is clearly the 2nd best player on the team IMO. It isn't even close.

[US Egg]

Don’t forget too, that the Chiefs have cheerleaders, the Bills don’t.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Totally agree. And yea, Ed is clearly the 2nd best player on the team IMO. It isn't even close.

I wish it wasn’t close because Ed had arrived as an elite pass rusher (not saying he isn’t good but he’s not elite imo).

 

But it isn’t close in 2024 in large part because he honestly has no competition lol. And that’s unique to 2024.

Edited August 15 by FireChans

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Top end talent and coaching are similar right now in terms of bigger gap. But it is proven over time it is Quarterbacks that move NFL betting lines more than anything else. And wider public opinion is NOT on your horse. Mahomes would move lines if he moved teams even if the other team was getting Allen or Burrow or Stroud or whoever the other way. 

We will have to agree to disagree on this.  QB line moves that we can measure are things like Trubisky steps in for Allen.  That is a dramatic move.  I can't even think of a circumstance where there is a situation similar to changing among the top 3 or 4 QBs in the league.  Is there an example you can point too? 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

“ You play to win the game.”

McD can’t win the big games. He has lost some of them egregiously.

 

If AFCE crown is enough for you, cool beans. But make no mistake, Without Josh, he has none of even those.

 

He got into the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at QB. I don’t want to hear he “backed in”. They were in the playoffs, look it up. The “backed in” crowd is just the haters looking for something to whine about. I don’t spend a lot of energy on this hater stuff. He would be on the market for about a minute before another team hired him. 

 

In case you haven’t noticed, the Chiefs are rather formidable. The rest of the league is letting them win Super Bowls, too. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

We will have to agree to disagree on this.  QB line moves that we can measure are things like Trubisky steps in for Allen.  That is a dramatic move.  I can't even think of a circumstance where there is a situation similar to changing among the top 3 or 4 QBs in the league.  Is there an example you can point too? 

 

Whoever Mahomes plays for would be the Superbowl favourites. 

[Success]

Allen & Mahomes are a wash.  People can think Mahomes is better, and many do - but it's not significant enough in terms of the differential.  You could even argue that Allen has played better in most of their matchups.

 

Rosters are a bit of a wash, too - though the Chiefs' D has made more plays when it counts, and in the playoffs.

 

I like McD, but Reid has solidified himself as one of the greatest of his era - in a sport where coaching matters more to winning a title than it does in any of the 3 other major sports.

 

[ghostwriter]

Reid is a better coach than McD, but Allen is a better QB than Mahomes. Rosters are the same.

Edited August 15 by ghostwriter

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whoever Mahomes plays for would be the Superbowl favourites. 

So you have no actual data to support "QB moves change the line more than anything".  Your opinion may be right.  But its only an opinion. 

13 minutes ago, Success said:

Allen & Mahomes are a wash.  People can think Mahomes is better, and many do - but it's not significant enough in terms of the differential.  You could even argue that Allen has played better in most of their matchups.

 

Rosters are a bit of a wash, too - though the Chiefs' D has made more plays when it counts, and in the playoffs.

 

I like McD, but Reid has solidified himself as one of the greatest of his era - in a sport where coaching matters more to winning a title than it does in any of the 3 other major sports.

 

The polling results so far, align exactly with this opinion.  You can take comfort that you are not alone.  Schedules and luck also play a role.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Chaos said:

So you have no actual data to support "QB moves change the line more than anything".  Your opinion may be right.  But its only an opinion. 

 

 

Yes. All the NFL money lines ever. Your point that they are normally pricing in a larger drop off are fair, but what is pretty proven at this stage is almost nothing else moves NFL money lines. It is just QB status. Teams swapping out coaches or losing star pass rushers or star receivers barely registers. It is basically Quarterbacks. That is what moves the lines. 

[BringBackFergy]

Oh brother. 
 

[LeGOATski]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whoever Mahomes plays for would be the Superbowl favourites. 

This isn't even true just based on recent history. The Bills were the favorite in preseason of 2022.

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whoever Mahomes plays for would be the Superbowl favourites. 

yeah no

 

thats not how it works

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yeah no

 

thats not how it works

“Brady and his team started the season as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times. Brady ended up winning the Super Bowl in those seasons twice (Super Bowls LI and LIII).”

 

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-tom-bradys-career-from-a-sports-betting-perspective

 

Would bet a significant amount of money than no other QB came close during Brady’s career to that number.

The best QB is usually favored to win the Super Bowl. This is obvious to anyone without Josh Allen goggles on.

[Success]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

“Brady and his team started the season as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times. Brady ended up winning the Super Bowl in those seasons twice (Super Bowls LI and LIII).”

 

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-tom-bradys-career-from-a-sports-betting-perspective

 

Would bet a significant amount of money than no other QB came close during Brady’s career to that number.

The best QB is usually favored to win the Super Bowl. This is obvious to anyone without Josh Allen goggles on.

 

Or, maybe, it's the best QB/coach combo?

 

You're leaving the GOAT coach out of that equation.