Lets win the Super Bowl thought Exercise

[FireChans]

Just now, Success said:

 

Or, maybe, it's the best QB/coach combo?

 

You're leaving the GOAT coach out of that equation.  

 

The best QB is the first part of the equation.

[Success]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

The best QB is the first part of the equation.

 

But it IS an equation.  And a logical one - most thought it was both that created the success New England had, and made them favorites every year.

 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

“Brady and his team started the season as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times. Brady ended up winning the Super Bowl in those seasons twice (Super Bowls LI and LIII).”

 

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-tom-bradys-career-from-a-sports-betting-perspective

 

Would bet a significant amount of money than no other QB came close during Brady’s career to that number.

The best QB is usually favored to win the Super Bowl. This is obvious to anyone without Josh Allen goggles on.

you people clearly arent gamblers lol

[FireChans]

Just now, Success said:

 

But it IS an equation.  And a logical one - most thought it was both that created the success New England had, and made them favorites every year.

 

Sure. 
 

But two years removed from the last Brady/BB Super Bowl (2020) the Buccaneers were third in the NFL in preseason SB odds. The Pats were 15th.

 

We all know why the Bucs odds jumped and the Pats odds dropped and it sure as hell wasn’t the coach lol

Just now, GoBills808 said:

you people clearly arent gamblers lol

Not true, I’m just a bad gambler.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The best QB is the first part of the equation.

guess who had shortest SB odds as recently as two preseasons ago

[Success]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure. 
 

But two years removed from the last Brady/BB Super Bowl (2020) the Buccaneers were third in the NFL in preseason SB odds. The Pats were 15th.

 

 

 

Well, no one is or was arguing that Brady was a bad QB or anything.  And that was a stacked Bucs team.

 

Kinda moving the goalposts there, though. The point remains - the fact that the Pats were constant faves was not just Brady.

 

Edited August 16 by Success

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Well, no one is or was arguing that Brady was a bad QB or anything.  And that was a stacked Bucs team.

 

Kinda moving the goalposts there, though. The point remains - the fact that the Pats were constant faves was not just Brady.

 

Brady played for the Pats, Pats had great odds.

 

Brady left the Pats for the Bucs, Bucs had great odds, Pats had nothing odds.

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

guess who had shortest SB odds as recently as two preseasons ago

Two Super Bowls ago there was an argument to be had about who was the best QB in football. Someone must’ve changed between now and then but I can’t put my finger on it.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Brady played for the Pats, Pats had great odds.

 

Brady left the Pats for the Bucs, Bucs had great odds, Pats had nothing odds.

Two Super Bowls ago there was an argument to be had about who was the best QB in football. Someone must’ve changed between now and then but I can’t put my finger on it.

Yes, being in/winning SBs tends to better your odds😂😂unless you think Brock purdy is the best QB 

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Yes, being in/winning SBs tends to better your odds😂😂unless you think Brock purdy is the best QB 

 

 

The best QBs are usually in/winning SBs.

 

this argument is so funny. You are basically agreeing the Bills SB odds would be higher if Mahomes was the QB because he has been in and won a bunch of SB’s but not because he’s the best QB.
 

Either way, the odds would be better. You admit it. Congrats, you played yourself 

[Success]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Brady played for the Pats, Pats had great odds.

 

Brady left the Pats for the Bucs, Bucs had great odds, Pats had nothing odds.

 

 

You're not serious w/ this, are you?

 

We're talking about 20 years vs. 1 year.  And Brady joining a stacked team, while Belichick had a team that was clearly on the decline.

 

If you want to move goalposts all over the place to prop up Mahomes, have at it - but the fact remains that the Pats were faves for close to 2 decades because of the QB/coach combo.  

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

The best QBs are usually in/winning SBs.

 

this argument is so funny. You are basically agreeing the Bills SB odds would be higher if Mahomes was the QB because he has been in and won a bunch of SB’s but not because he’s the best QB.
 

Either way, the odds would be better. You admit it. Congrats, you played yourself 

you cant help yourself lol

 

i literally only dropped in this thread to say the statement 'whatever team Mahomes is playing for would have the best SB odds' is categorically false

 

btw the better question would be which team would have the better preseason SB odds- Mahomes on the Bills on Allen on the Chiefs?

[Mikie2times]

If we had Spags I would think it's closer to even money. That would never be what we see in the market but it's what I think would happen. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

i literally only dropped in this thread to say the statement 'whatever team Mahomes is playing for would have the best SB odds' is categorically false

This can’t be true. I know this because my good friend just said:

 

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes, being in/winning SBs tends to better your odds

Unless I’ve missed something, has Patrick Mahomes not been in/won SB’s? Wouldn’t that better his odds?

 

Is there an active QB in the NFL who has played in more Superbowls? Won more Superbowls? I’m blanking.

[GoBills808]

I don't want to be in this conversation anymore

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

This isn't even true just based on recent history. The Bills were the favorite in preseason of 2022.

 

I meant to type one of the favourites. My point was he would cut the odds of any team other than the Chiefs that he was traded to. In this "thought exercise". Let's say he signed now for Denver or Atlanta or Seattle.... they would jump into the top 3 or 4 in the betting instantly. If that team was already in the top 6 of favourites they'd jump to the top. 

 

But I accept I worded that carelessly. 

Edited August 16 by GunnerBill

[Thrivefourfive]

The only way that #3 doesn’t go our way is because we didn’t switch head coaches. 
 

with any combination of Mahomes/Allen, roster/roster, Reid>McDermott is the determine factor for success. 
 

The gap between COACHING STAFFS is far greater than between QBs and rosters. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

The only way that #3 doesn’t go our way is because we didn’t switch head coaches. 
 

with any combination of Mahomes/Allen, roster/roster, Reid>McDermott is the determine factor for success. 
 

The gap between COACHING STAFFS is far greater than between QBs and rosters. 

 

I am not sure I agree this year. I think the gap between rosters is pretty wide too. That hasn't been the case in previous years. 

 

To give some sense of scale (not talking betting odds now) I'd say the gap between Quarterbacks is 1 to 2 points in the Chiefs favour. The gap between coaching and rosters are both in the 5 to 6 point range in their favour this year. Go back two seasons I'd have had roster a point or two in the Bills favour. 

[Bill from NYC]

On 8/15/2024 at 10:07 AM, Buffalo Boy said:

Reid is better than McD by a considerable margin

In other news, water is wet.

Edited August 18 by Bill from NYC

[Thrivefourfive]

On 8/16/2024 at 10:42 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure I agree this year. I think the gap between rosters is pretty wide too. That hasn't been the case in previous years. 

 

To give some sense of scale (not talking betting odds now) I'd say the gap between Quarterbacks is 1 to 2 points in the Chiefs favour. The gap between coaching and rosters are both in the 5 to 6 point range in their favour this year. Go back two seasons I'd have had roster a point or two in the Bills favour. 

All things considered, I’m still going with the Reid led Bills this year over the McD led Chiefs. Wonder what Chiefs fan think about that.. 

 

I’ll even let the Bills into Arrowhead for the AFCCG. I just can’t feel confident with McDermott in that situation, or any playoff situation. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Thrivefourfive said:

All things considered, I’m still going with the Reid led Bills this year over the McD led Chiefs. Wonder what Chiefs fan think about that.. 

 

I’ll even let the Bills into Arrowhead for the AFCCG. I just can’t feel confident with McDermott in that situation, or any playoff situation. 

 

If you just swapped coaches in 2021 or 2022 or maybe even last year, sure. For the Bills to knock Mahomes and the Chiefs this year even under Andy Reid? Nah. Not for me. Indeed in all Andy Reid's coaching career I can only find two examples where you can argue he won a playoff game against a team with a better Quarterback than his (not just played better on the day but overall regarded to be better). 2003 Divisional round McNabb over Farve and 2008 Divisional round McNabb over Eli. Now I get it the Mahomes to Allen gap isn't huge so maybe he can overcome and I get it that McDermott is 0fer in terms of beating teams with top level Quarterbacks in the playoffs let alone teams with better than Josh (there is only one and he is 0-3). But I dunno... this year the gap isn't just Andy to Sean. Their roster is objectively a step up on ours. 

Edited August 18 by GunnerBill