Lets win the Super Bowl thought Exercise

[Chaos]

Warning - There will be math. 

Chiefs keep winning the Super Bowl. Bills keep bowing out in the first round of playoffs.

It seems the Chiefs have been better at something or some things, than they Bills are. 

Currently the Chiefs are given +500 odds to win the Super Bowl.  This translates to 16.67% for those not familar with betting moneylines>
The Bills are given +1500 odds to win the Super Bowl.  6.25%.   

In real life, no one can simply mathmatcally allocate the responsibilty for winning the championship to on component of a team.   That is why this is a thought exercise. Everyone gets to use their own brain, and their own judgement. 

The question being asked in the polling questions are "if you could swap this ONE element of the Chiefs and the Bills, how much would the odds change for better or worse for the Bills" .   I am not asking for anyone's opinion on how much a line "should" move.  It really is asking your opinion on how much it "would" move. Meaning you have to assess the publics response to the hypothetical change (note- none of these swaps are happening, once again it is a thought exercise)

The table below shols current odds to put in perspective public opinion on the Bills current chances.  Below the table, is a list of the swap choices the polling questions will ask.

 

Swap Head Coaches

Swap QBs
Swap Rosters, other than QBs

 

Edited August 15 by Chaos

[Your Brown Eye]

Remain the same - A year or two ago, I think I would have a different answer. I just think the Bills roster lacks the overall talent for a coach swap to make a huge difference

Bills gap increases - I think Josh Allen would do wonders being on the Chiefs with that team and coaching staff. Arm talent is a push, so I base this on running ability Allen >>>> Mahomes.

Bills close the gap - Again, I think the Chiefs have a better roster, especially on the o-line and defense overall. Skill position is probably equal, could make a case to favor one side slightly more.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

If they swapped coaches today they would have to install a whole new offensive and defensive philosophy 3 weeks before the start of the season. The odds would actually decrease and I’m not sure why this isn’t an option on the poll? 

[GunnerBill]

Right now I think all three would see the Bills odds shorten and the Chiefs odds drift. 

 

As of right here today I think KC has a better Head Coach, a better Quarterback and more top end talent on its overall roster without sacrificing depth. I think in previous years the roster one would have been a coin flip. The Bills were always deeper but with less top end talent. They are not even deeper this year. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think KC has a better Head Coach, a better Quarterback and more top end talent on its overall roster w

Is your conclusion based on what you think, or your perception of what the public thinks? In either case, I would be interested on your estimate of how much the odds would shorten for each scenario.  From =1500 to X and how much you think the Chiefs would lenghten from +500 to Y

[Gregg]

I selected Bills close gap on all three questions.

 

Reid is better than McDermott.

Mahomes always seems to come through in the clutch. He is obviously a big reason they have been to 4 Super Bowls in the last 5 years and won 3 of them.

The Chiefs roster has proven they can win championships. The Bills haven't done that yet.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Chaos said:

Is your conclusion based on what you think, or your perception of what the public thinks? In either case, I would be interested on your estimate of how much the odds would shorten for each scenario.  From =1500 to X and how much you think the Chiefs would lenghten from +500 to Y

 

It is what I think and how I think the public would react, yes. 

 

I think honestly, Quarterback would move the line the most. The overwhelming public perception is that Patrick Mahomes is the heir to Brady and set to dominate the Superbowl for the next decade. Any team he went to would see their Superbowl odds shorten drastically. Quarterbacks are always the piece that moves the moneyline the most. 

 

Personally I think Quarterback might, right now, be where the smallest difference is. But I'm not sure that perception is shared among the wider public. 

[Buffalo Boy]

1. Reid is at least one game, per season better than McD.

2. A wash but:

    If Reid had Josh, wouldn’t his size at the goal line offer Reid an extra offensive wrinkle that Mahomes lacks?

   I think Josh is a hair better but not enough to make an appreciable difference.

3. It’s not how much Reid would get out of a lesser squad, which the Don’t say Rebuilding Bills have this year. It’s about how McD would not properly use/underuse the weapons the Chiefs have. 
In summation, Reid is better than McD by a considerable margin, the Bills are the weakest we’ve seen them roster wise in years and Thank you OP for the stealth McD sucks thread 😜

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Thank you OP for the stealth McD sucks thread 😜

 

It is every thread he starts. How can I come up with another spurious way to try and make people agree with me that McDermott sucks. This one is not a particularly good effort.  

[Buffalo Boy]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is every thread he starts. How can I come up with another spurious way to try and make people agree with me that McDermott sucks. This one is not a particularly good effort.  

He is a middling coach who has been blessed to have a multi generational QB hide his various warts.

This roster is not very good nor is it deep.

Josh deserves better than this and I am really starting to feel sorry for him.

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Buffalo Boy said:

He is a middling coach who has been blessed to have a multi generational QB hide his various warts.

This roster is not very good nor is it deep.

Josh deserves better than this and I am really starting to feel sorry for him.

 

 

None of which relates to the fact every thread the OP starts is the same. But thanks for playing. 

[nedboy7]

Was this topic which has been discussed ad nauseam presented again so the same few folks who pretend to root for the team can take another ***** on the forum this am?  Get a ***** grip. 

[hondo in seattle]

I like and respect McD.  But Reid is probably a better offensive mind than McD is a defensive mind.   Both are pretty good at offseason preparation, building teamwork, getting a team to execute, etc.

 

Where Reid has a big advantage is with the coordinator on the other side of the ball.  McD is on his 4th OC, still searching for the right guy.  Hopefully, Brady proves to be the one. 

 

Reid and Spags are a dynamic duo.  Both are strong at what they do.  Best 1-2 coaching pairing in the league.    The Reid-Spags-Mahomes combo is (sadly) special.   We'd have a Lombardi by now if not for them.  

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Was this topic which has been discussed ad nauseam presented again so the same few folks who pretend to root for the team can take another ***** on the forum this am?  Get a ***** grip. 

 

……but he went to a lot of trouble this time with a big poll and everything, so there’s that.   

[Buffalo Boy]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

None of which relates to the fact every thread the OP starts is the same. But thanks for playing. 

When you have a winning horse, why not keep riding it? Especially, when most others don’t want to bet on it because they don’t like the ugliness of it🤷‍♂️

[dpberr]

IMO, it's the coaching, but it's not just the head coaches, it's also the lieutenants.  McDermott is more or less Andy Reid pre-Steve Spagnuolo, who joins KC in 2019.

 

Reid's coaching record:

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Right now I think all three would see the Bills odds shorten and the Chiefs odds drift. 

 

As of right here today I think KC has a better Head Coach, a better Quarterback and more top end talent on its overall roster without sacrificing depth. I think in previous years the roster one would have been a coin flip. The Bills were always deeper but with less top end talent. They are not even deeper this year. 

This ^^^, sad to say this as a Bills fan, but Mahomes sees the field better than Josh does, couple that with a better receiver group, is why they beat us at the most important part of the season…, the playoffs.  Iirc, we are 3-3 with KC, in the last six games, but all of their wins are in the post season…, 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

 When you have a winning horse, why not keep riding it? Especially, when most others don’t want to bet on it because they don’t like the ugliness of it🤷‍♂️

 

What, exactly, has your horse won?

[Buffalo Boy]

9 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

What, exactly, has your horse won?

Chaos’ horse is “McD sucks.”

McD does suck.

He keeps riding it.

It angers a bunch of you.

Razumiješ li?

 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is what I think and how I think the public would react, yes. 

 

I think honestly, Quarterback would move the line the most. The overwhelming public perception is that Patrick Mahomes is the heir to Brady and set to dominate the Superbowl for the next decade. Any team he went to would see their Superbowl odds shorten drastically. Quarterbacks are always the piece that moves the moneyline the most. 

 

Personally I think Quarterback might, right now, be where the smallest difference is. But I'm not sure that perception is shared among the wider public. 

These poll results certainly do not reflect public opinion at large.  But I think identifying the head coach as the biggest gap, in this poll does correctly reflect the broader bettor opinion, which is what is reflected in the odds.  I think the most common assesment is that Reid is HC1 in the NFL.  McDermott is HC7 to 11. While Mahomes is regarded as QB1 and Allen is regarded as QB2.  Bettors generally understand the importance of coaching. 

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Chaos’ horse is “McD sucks.”

McD does suck.

He keeps riding it.

It angers a bunch of you.

Razumiješ li?

 

This is wrong. 

If I have a horse, the horse is that Allen is every bit as good as Mahomes.