So, let's talk about Warren Sharp's latest tweet, it's a good one

[artmalibu]

Funny how these guys talk about what Allen cant do, but leave out the fact he led the league in total TDs for the last 4 years.  And this is with how many OCs, with one fired mid year....

 

Maybe a good topic would be "how many rings would KC have if Josh was their QB"

 

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

18 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

So, three different OCs, the same ***** results within three yards of the goal line. What's the common denominator, everyone?

 

You make the call.

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this mostly because the fact Josh Allen has 15 rushing TDs? Usually they run it in one way or the other if they’re at the goal line. People always discount his rushing stats to prove their stupid narrative. He’s a dual threat QB. People don’t seem to do the same to Lamar 🤔

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, artmalibu said:

Funny how these guys talk about what Allen cant do, but leave out the fact he led the league in total TDs for the last 4 years.  And this is with how many OCs, with one fired mid year....

 

Maybe a good topic would be "how many rings would KC have if Josh was their QB"

 

 

 

 

Probably one maybe.

[Royale with Cheese]

54 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this mostly because the fact Josh Allen has 15 rushing TDs? Usually they run it in one way or the other if they’re at the goal line. People always discount his rushing stats to prove their stupid narrative. He’s a dual threat QB. People don’t seem to do the same to Lamar 🤔

 

Nate Geary had stats on WGR this morning.  Allen attempted 17 passes inside the 5 yard line with 7 TD passes.  

He did have 15 rushing TD's and you expect the majority of them to be at the goal line.    

This is why I don't think this stat means much.  We still usually scored.  

 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

I would say our RB's have been poor in the short yardage area leading to Sharp's conclusion.  When the ball is in Josh's hands, he can pass, roll out & pass or run or just run it.  My favorite, is spread out the defense and run a QB draw.  Regardless, I don't get nervous when the Bills are in-close.  I'm anticipating a TD. Frankly, I was surprised by Sharp's take/stats.  The Bills offense is a top scoring offense, and we all know they are trying to improve the running game (except for that display against the Bears!).

[MPL]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

19 hours ago, MPL said:

Any time the Bills have a 3rd and 1, I assume they are not going to get it. Doesn't matter where on the field they are. 

Pretty sure the Bills had the highest third down conversion rate in the league last year.

 

2 hours ago, dickleyjones said:

13 hours ago, MPL said:

I think I need whatever anxiety meds you have. 

Yeah they are called Joshallenam

 

Ever since that 4th and 1 vs Dallas my worries have disappeared.

Guys, I'm not saying my thoughts are rational. 

[H2o]

Warren Sharp

[The Jokeman]

21 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Who gives a ****.  We score everywhere else on the field at a high rate.  We have scored the most on average since 2020.  We would be #1 in overall points but we have one less game.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-points-scored-since-2020-nfl-team

Does a TD at the 1 yard line count more than a TD at the 5 or 11 yard line?

 

We can't be great in every single facet or stat on offense.  

 

Cherry picking one stat as if it matters.  The negatives on here will eat this up.

Josh also has the 7th most rushing TDs the last 3 seasons.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Weren’t we very highly rated in red zone offense? Why are we singling out passing plays from the goal line specifically lol 

[todd]

22 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

So, three different OCs, the same ***** results within three yards of the goal line. What's the common denominator, everyone?

 

You make the call.

 

 

So are you saying we should ditch Josh because he hasn't scored from the 1?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, todd said:

 

So are you saying we should ditch Josh because he hasn't scored from the 1?

It's Sharp's tweet, not mine.

 

But I had a pretty detailed plan for a franchise reset at the end of last season that was universally scoffed around here. We'll see how it works out

 

[Nelius]

36 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

It's Sharp's tweet, not mine.

 

But I had a pretty detailed plan for a franchise reset at the end of last season that was universally scoffed around here. We'll see how it works out

 

We’ll see how your insanely awful plan that has no chance of ever happening, works out? What? 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Weren’t we very highly rated in red zone offense? Why are we singling out passing plays from the goal line specifically lol 

 

Since 2020 we've been 12th, 1st, 9th, and 4th in red zone TD percentage. 

 

Sharp is singling out PASSING plays inside the 3 yard line because we are randomly very bad at it. 

 

It's such a narrow stat that a few bad possessions really skew the data. Completely meaningless IMO 

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what so many people miss about what they are doing.  Diggs was a failure in the post season his entire time here where his stats are no where near his regular season.  

 

THANK GOD we won't have to watch another OC call a fade from the 3 yard line to a short Diggs that never works.  

 

 

If you look at his postseason games here against teams not named the Chiefs, he's been damn good.

[Mikey152]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've read some of this thread, and there are two basic points people are making:   Either this stat is meaningful and the Bills need to do something about it, or it's meaningless and it's silly to focus on it.  

 

It reminds me of the stat someone highlighted a week ago or so about the Bills have the best 3rd down conversion rate of any team in the league.  It's the same kind of stat, either meaningful or meaningless, except in that case it was highlighting something good rather than something bad. 

 

I think that if you're trying to prove the Bills are good or bad, these stats are useless.  They are, as people have pointed out, a sliver of total performance.   Who cares if the Bills are bad scoring inside the five if they are at or near the top of the league in scoring.  Or, who cares if the Bills are great converting third downs; what matters is whether they get a lot of first downs, regardless of whether those first downs come on first, second, third, or fourth down.   These stats don't establish whether the Bills are a good or bad team. 

 

However, if you're the head coach of the Bills, it's very important to know if the Bills are lousy at getting touchdowns inside the five, because as the head coach you're trying to improve on everything.  Clearly, if you're settling for field goals inside the five more than the best teams, if you're scoring fewer touchdowns, that's something you could do better, and something that will make the team better.  It doesn't matter if the Bills already are one of the highest scoring teams; if they're leaving four to seven points on the field every once in a while, that's something they should try to figure out and improve.  Why?  Well, remember the thread that said the Bills hadn't lost by more than six points in two and half seasons?  There's your answer.  I guarantee you that in at least some of those losses by less than six points, the Bills took a field goal or failed on fourth down inside the five, and that in some of those games those four or seven points were the difference between winning and losing. 

 

So, is the stat important?  Of course it is, if you're trying to maximize performance.  Is it a problem that will keep the Bills out of the playoffs unless it is fixed?  Probably not.  I'm not going to think about it, but I bet Joe Brady is thinking about it.  If he isn't, the Bills have the wrong man.

I think you need to read the stat again...

 

The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline...it is about passing touchdowns from the goal line. 

 

Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in 2023 with 12 touchdown passes from inside the 5 yard line. Josh only had 6. But Josh also had 8 rushing TDs from inside the 5 compared to Mahomes 0.

 

Josh Allen accounted for the second most TDs (passing/rushing) from inside the 5 in the NFL last year (14). He was second to Jalen Hurts. Inside the 20, He had 33 total, and the next closest guy was Hurts with 28.

 

I will say this...our RBs didn't contribute jack squat in the RZ. It's the Josh Allen show. 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

25 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Since 2020 we've been 12th, 1st, 9th, and 4th in red zone TD percentage. 

 

Sharp is singling out PASSING plays inside the 3 yard line because we are randomly very bad at it. 

 

It's such a narrow stat that a few bad possessions really skew the data. Completely meaningless IMO 

 

 

Are we randomly bad at it?

 

Or are we bad at it?

 

Randomness is one possible explanation. There are plenty of others.

2 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I think you need to read the stat again...

 

The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline...it is about passing touchdowns from the goal line. 

 

Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in 2023 with 12 touchdown passes from inside the 5 yard line. Josh only had 6. But Josh also had 8 rushing TDs from inside the 5 compared to Mahomes 0.

 

Josh Allen accounted for the second most TDs (passing/rushing) from inside the 5 in the NFL last year (14). He was second to Jalen Hurts. Inside the 20, He had 33 total, and the next closest guy was Hurts with 28.

 

I will say this...our RBs didn't contribute jack squat in the RZ. It's the Josh Allen show. 

 

 

 

 

Yes and no.

 

The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline ... but it also is not about passing touchdowns from the goalline.

 

It's about the success percentage on attempted passes from the goalline, or more specifically from the 3 and in. Success percentage, not total numbers.

[Mikey152]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Are we randomly bad at it?

 

Or are we bad at it?

 

Randomness is one possible explanation. There are plenty of others.

 

 

Yes and no.

 

The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline ... but it also is not about passing touchdowns from the goalline.

 

It's about the success percentage on attempted passes from the goalline, or more specifically from the 3 and in. Success percentage, not total numbers.

That actually works in JA's favor

 

Josh was 9/14 with 6 tds from inside the 5. He also scored 8 Tds on 14 carries.

 

Mahomes was 16/19 with 12 Tds from inside the 5, and scored 0 TDs on 6 carries.

 

So, Josh was 14/28 (50%) and Mahomes was 12/25 (48%)

 

 

 

Jordan Love was 10/15 total, Hurts was 17/26 and Purdy was 9/15. Everyone else was 50% or less or was so far down the total list I didn't bother with the math.

 

What it does show is the Bills put the ball in their QBs hands, run or pass, more than any team in the league inside the 5 last year (aside from Tua, who threw it 28 TIMES!!!! but mostert also ran it a bunch because he failed so often)

Edited August 15 by Mikey152

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I think you need to read the stat again...

 

The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline...it is about passing touchdowns from the goal line. 

 

 

I don't think it matters.  If you're ineffective scoring from inside the five in either category, from McDermott's perspective that you want to improve.  In particular, if teams know how to stop you throwing from the five, it gets easier for them to stop you running from the five.  

 

The objective is to be a threat passing AND running from that distance.  

 

However, as I said, from my point of view, it's just a random stat.  There are all kinds of these miniscule stats that I don't think are useful in terms of a broader perspective about the team.  

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, artmalibu said:

Funny how these guys talk about what Allen cant do, but leave out the fact he led the league in total TDs for the last 4 years.  And this is with how many OCs, with one fired mid year....

 

Maybe a good topic would be "how many rings would KC have if Josh was their QB"

 

 

 

 

Good point . I’d say the same or + - 1  allowing for variables that may have affected  the final outcome of the games. 

[stuvian]

Offseason is clickbait season. With sport stalk shows screaming on every network every story must be exaggerated and conflated for effect