So, let's talk about Warren Sharp's latest tweet, it's a good one

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

No, but it counts more than a FG.  This is actually an interesting stat, though.  If anything, it tells me that the Bills have a lot of meat left on the bone offensively despite being one of the highest scoring offenses in the league.  There’s reason to believe they can be even better.

You can move the line anywhere and make stats out of it.  Not great passing within the 3…what about the 5?  Is that still considered meat left on the bone?  
 

This is just passing.  We score a lot.

 

As fans, we have unrealistic expectations sometimes when you have a QB as good as Allen.  He is elite inside the 20 but passing inside the 3 that doesn’t happen that often…we are looking for the negative?
 

We are #1 in the last 5 years in ppg.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

We score a lot

We do.  The problem is that in playoff games the defense lets other teams score more. 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We do.  The problem is that in playoff games the defense lets other teams score more. 

Yes I know but this thread is about a specific offensive stat.

[f0neguy]

Haven’t back read everything but does anyone actually know how many passes were attempted/completed within the three yard area last season?

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

They have been poor inside the 10 yard line for quite some time.  Makes sense 

they are top 5? 10? In the red zone. It’s a pretty specific sliver they are struggling from. 
 

id rather be great in the red zone with a hole passing from the goal line than terrible in the red zone and decent at the 1

[Process]

This seems completely meaningless and something that has nothing to do with why we haven't won a Superbowl?

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I think what @GoBills808 is trying to say is:

 

Eagles sneak a lot/use Hurts rushing because it’s a team strength.

 

The Bills sneak a lot/use Josh rushing because they have to.

I understand his point. That doesn’t make it factual.

 

You see flaws because you want to see flaws. 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

They're very good at scoring within the 10 yard line.  It's a dumb tweet that leads people to this conclusion.

yea, it’s an interesting stat but can be terribly misleading 

 

offense A gets 8 possessions gets to the red zone twice, kicks a fg from the 15 and qb tosses a td from the 2

 

offense b gets 8 touches and in the red zone 6 times, and has 4 td and a fg but passing from the 2 is 0-2 and one of those is a pick

 

clearly you’d love offense b and not even blink. The sample size is growing on passes inside the 3 and I think it’s a bit of play design, a bit of wr skill set and also Josh not being quite as precise as third on the list…. But there’s a difference between a problem, and simply a spot to give some extra practice reps. 
 

I do think this is a spot Brady will excel with scheming matchups with formation and motion in a way that Dorsey struggled. I also think dalton, Coleman and Samuel each fit that niche better than Gabe-diggs-Knox 

[MPL]

4 hours ago, dickleyjones said:

6 hours ago, MPL said:

Any time the Bills have a 3rd and 1, I assume they are not going to get it. Doesn't matter where on the field they are. 

huh, i assume the exact opposite.

I think I need whatever anxiety meds you have. 

[zow2]

6 hours ago, MPL said:

Any time the Bills have a 3rd and 1, I assume they are not going to get it. Doesn't matter where on the field they are. 

 

Pretty bad.    and on the flip side anytime the opponent has a 3rd and 9 from anywhere i assume they will convert on our D

[LeGOATski]

This is considered a good tweet? There's no significance to this.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

This is considered a good tweet? There's no significance to this.

Provocateur with an agenda, which is wrong, but it's gotten six pages and by typing this I contributed to it. I guess I'll have to say a half dozen Hail Marys.

[Shaw66]

I've read some of this thread, and there are two basic points people are making:   Either this stat is meaningful and the Bills need to do something about it, or it's meaningless and it's silly to focus on it.  

 

It reminds me of the stat someone highlighted a week ago or so about the Bills have the best 3rd down conversion rate of any team in the league.  It's the same kind of stat, either meaningful or meaningless, except in that case it was highlighting something good rather than something bad. 

 

I think that if you're trying to prove the Bills are good or bad, these stats are useless.  They are, as people have pointed out, a sliver of total performance.   Who cares if the Bills are bad scoring inside the five if they are at or near the top of the league in scoring.  Or, who cares if the Bills are great converting third downs; what matters is whether they get a lot of first downs, regardless of whether those first downs come on first, second, third, or fourth down.   These stats don't establish whether the Bills are a good or bad team. 

 

However, if you're the head coach of the Bills, it's very important to know if the Bills are lousy at getting touchdowns inside the five, because as the head coach you're trying to improve on everything.  Clearly, if you're settling for field goals inside the five more than the best teams, if you're scoring fewer touchdowns, that's something you could do better, and something that will make the team better.  It doesn't matter if the Bills already are one of the highest scoring teams; if they're leaving four to seven points on the field every once in a while, that's something they should try to figure out and improve.  Why?  Well, remember the thread that said the Bills hadn't lost by more than six points in two and half seasons?  There's your answer.  I guarantee you that in at least some of those losses by less than six points, the Bills took a field goal or failed on fourth down inside the five, and that in some of those games those four or seven points were the difference between winning and losing. 

 

So, is the stat important?  Of course it is, if you're trying to maximize performance.  Is it a problem that will keep the Bills out of the playoffs unless it is fixed?  Probably not.  I'm not going to think about it, but I bet Joe Brady is thinking about it.  If he isn't, the Bills have the wrong man.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

I understand his point. That doesn’t make it factual.

 

You see flaws because you want to see flaws. 

Um it’s not like we are a flawless football team.

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'm sorry that seems like a cherry picked stat. Goal line passing? When you have one of the best Red Zone running QBs in the league? Why do you care?

 

And congratulations, why do you think we brought on those big bodies?

 

Josh Allen:

 

2020 Red Zone Passing: 5th https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/redzone-passing.htm

2021 Red Zone Passing: 3rd https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/redzone-passing.htm

2022 Red Zone Passing: 2nd https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/redzone-passing.htm

2023 Red Zone Passing: 4th https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/redzone-passing.htm

 

Anyone want to look up team red zone performance?

 

I've already wasted 5 minutes tamping down this stupid topic.

 

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

So, three different OCs, the same ***** results within three yards of the goal line. What's the common denominator, everyone?

 

You make the call.

 

This is a pretty dumb stat.  What’s the point here?  That Josh can’t pass the ball near the goal line.  Who cares when they get in the end zone at a high rate?

[Dr.Sack]

This is due mostly in part to a lack of a goalline short yardage back, and lack of creativity. Either find a bulldozer at RB, or run Allen. I believe Hurts led the NFL in short yardage rushing TDs last year, and far fewer of Allen's 15 rushing TDs came from 1-2 yards or in. That also speaks to a lack of push from the OL. 

 

#1 - lack of elite short yardage / goal-line back

#2 - lack of OL push

#3 - lack of creativity from OC - think KC's shuffle passes to Kelce. 

[Big Turk]

16 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Who gives a ****.  We score everywhere else on the field at a high rate.  We have scored the most on average since 2020.  We would be #1 in overall points but we have one less game.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-points-scored-since-2020-nfl-team

Does a TD at the 1 yard line count more than a TD at the 5 or 11 yard line?

 

We can't be great in every single facet or stat on offense.  

 

Cherry picking one stat as if it matters.  The negatives on here will eat this up.

 

We are #1 overall in points per game which is what they use to measure it.

 

Also #1 in point differential, 3rd down conversions and least punts.

[mannc]

17 hours ago, MPL said:

Any time the Bills have a 3rd and 1, I assume they are not going to get it. Doesn't matter where on the field they are. 

Pretty sure the Bills had the highest third down conversion rate in the league last year.

[dickleyjones]

11 hours ago, MPL said:

I think I need whatever anxiety meds you have. 

Yeah they are called Joshallenam

 

Ever since that 4th and 1 vs Dallas my worries have disappeared.

Edited August 15 by dickleyjones