So, let's talk about Warren Sharp's latest tweet, it's a good one

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

This makes sense.  The Chiefs' DBs are known to take a lot of liberties and get away with it, so maybe the bigger, stronger pass catchers (I use that term, given that Kincaid is technically a TE) can overcome that physicality and still make the plays.

We run a 12 with 2 TE and  a couple big WR's and either we score or the fouls are so flagrant, KC finally gets called on them. Its also why I want Davis to start at RB, bowling ball on the Goal line is a good thing.

[julian]

49 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have won 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls.   The Bills not winning a Super Bowl has nothing to do with being poor at scoring within the 10 yard line.   The Bills havent won the Super Bowl because Josh is playing in an era where the two best Quarterbacks of all time (were) are in the league.

Or because Allen’s defense  continues to comes up small in the post season.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

In 2019, Josh was tied with Mahomes for Passing TDs from inside the 5. (4 to 4)

In 2020, Josh had more passing touchdowns than Mahomes from inside the 5. (14 to 13)

In 2021, Pat had more (13 to 9)

In 2022, Pat had more (16 to 8 )

In 2023, Pat had more (12 to 6)

 

thats 58 for pat and 41 for Josh

 

Over that same period of time Josh has 28 rushing tds from inside the 5 and Mahomes has 6.  In case you were wondering, thats 64 for pat and 69 for Josh

 

K

Not sure where you're going w this

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have won 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls.   The Bills not winning a Super Bowl has nothing to do with being poor at scoring within the 10 yard line.   The Bills havent won the Super Bowl because Josh is playing in an era where the two best Quarterbacks of all time (were) are in the league.

They're very good at scoring within the 10 yard line.  It's a dumb tweet that leads people to this conclusion.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

What's the common denominator, everyone?

 

You make the call.

 

McDermott 

 

Is this a trick question?

[Jerome007]

2 hours ago, MPL said:

Any time the Bills have a 3rd and 1, I assume they are not going to get it. Doesn't matter where on the field they are. 

Seems to me that with Josh, 3rd & 14 or 3rd & 7, same thing. His arm strength makes it as doable, and the Bills have been quite agressive in play selection compared to other teams that run the draw play half the time. But for 3rd and short? It seems the OLine hasn't had the push the best OLines have. Yet they have been much better last year IMO.

 

10 minutes ago, julian said:

Or because Allen’s defense  continues to comes up small in the post season.

Bills' defense, not Allen's dense

But yeah. it's bit of a drag that the D has been quite porous come playoff time. Of course, they face much better teams but they have been a weak point.

Edited August 14 by Jerome007

[Royale with Cheese]

44 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

What a silly thing to say... It's a clear problem, not just some throwaway stat you can shrug off. 

 

Dead last, and you say "who gives a ****?" 

 

Points matter, right? Just because you're successful at other parts of the field, doesn't mean you can ignore one of the most important parts. 

 

You know these embarrassing upsets we have year after year? Losing to the Urban Meyer Jags, blown out at home against the Colts, losing to the Jets without Rodgers, beaten by Mac Jones, etc. etc. etc...

 

Maybe not being dead last in a very important area of the field would help get us some extra points? 

 

Then again, so would not committing so many turnovers, but apparently Josh can't be blamed for that either because "who gives a ****? He's great all the other times!"

 

But isn't the goal to IMPROVE & win a SB? The Chiefs being the #1 offense over that period & Bills being #2 means we're neck & neck, but they've made 4 SBs & we've made zero. Is it all for that reason? Obviously not. 

 

But aside from last year, we've had a higher ranked D & been right there offensively, so... So is it ST? Coaching? Obviously it can't be Josh Allen, so maybe we SHOULD care about "cherry picked" things like this if we're DEAD LAST & see if they can be improved...

Points matter and we are league leaders every year.  Why are you under the assumption we didn’t score?  This is strictly passing.

 

Who said anything about ignoring it?  Didn’t we get bigger at WR?

 

Every team has embarrassing upsets.

Chiefs lost to the Broncos and Raiders last year.  The 49ers lost to the Vikings and PJ Walker led Browns.  They both played in the Super Bowl last year.

 

Allen had 68 pass attempts inside the redzone.  I can’t find stats on it but its obvious you will throw the ball more between the 5-19 yard lines.  Allen probably had 15 throws inside the 3.  That’s not something to make a big deal out of.  It would if we weren’t scoring but we are.

Guess what Allen was inside the 20?  20 TD’s to 1 INT.  Rushing he was 35 carries for 15 TD’s.  I just care we are getting the ball in the endzone.

[3rdand12]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Points matter and we are league leaders every year.  Why are you under the assumption we didn’t score?  This is strictly passing.

 

Who said anything about ignoring it?  Didn’t we get bigger at WR?

 

Every team has embarrassing upsets.

Chiefs lost to the Broncos and Raiders last year.  The 49ers lost to the Vikings and PJ Walker led Browns.  They both played in the Super Bowl last year.

 

Allen had 68 pass attempts inside the redzone.  I can’t find stats on it but its obvious you will throw the ball more between the 5-19 yard lines.  Allen probably had 15 throws inside the 3.  That’s not something to make a big deal out of.  It would if we weren’t scoring but we are.

Guess what Allen was inside the 20?  20 TD’s to 1 INT.  Rushing he was 35 carries for 15 TD’s.  I just care we are getting the ball in the endzone.

that is. All of It it .

in a nutshell

Bolded

 well said Cheese

[Mikey152]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

K

Not sure where you're going w this

Josh scores more than Pat from inside 5 yards.  I didn't do that math, but just based on where Josh ranked each year...he probably scores more than every other QB in the NFL inside the 5.

 

Splitting hairs about HOW he does that and using to bash Josh, the receivers or the Oline seems silly. Almost as silly as using as a way to explain why the Chiefs win more.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I assume that's one of the reasons they drafted a big WR who can win contested catches (Coleman) versus a small speedy guy (Worthy).  And last year, their top pick was big pass catcher in Kincaid.  These guys should be able to "win" on fades and jump balls in the end zone.  I have not followed camp that closely, but I do recall seeing a lot of those types of plays in the recaps.

Yup....inside the 5, I'm targeting Kincaid or Coleman every time. This obvious long term issue is why we rely on Josh running it in so much.

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Josh scores more than Pat from inside 5 yards.  I didn't do that math, but just based on where Josh ranked each year...he probably scores more than every other QB in the NFL inside the 5.

 

Splitting hairs about HOW he does that and using to bash Josh, the receivers or the Oline seems silly. Almost as silly as using as a way to explain why the Chiefs win more.

 

I agree w this

 

I'm not trying to bash anyone... I'm trying to explain that I think this particular not-totally-useful stat is probably correlated to a larger and previously existing issue

[WotAGuy]

This whole thing wouldn’t be an issue if James Hardy did what he was drafted to do. I blame him. 

[Mikey152]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I agree w this

 

I'm not trying to bash anyone... I'm trying to explain that I think this particular not-totally-useful stat is probably correlated to a larger and previously existing issue

Maybe. But to be fair, Our #1 RB the last 5 seasons hasn't exactly been a big back, and they aren't really downhill runners either.

 

As for the passing, I think the Bills and Chiefs have gone opposite directions. Once upon a time, Josh didn't turn the ball over in the RZ...then all of a sudden he did. We threw it alot in 2020. He also got really good at sneaks. 

 

Conversely, Mahomes is not a big guy and got hurt on a running play...so the Chiefs moved away from sneaks (and running in general) inside the 5. They use Mahomes legs to create TDs, just in a different way.

 

But at the end of the day, both teams play to their strengths and the Bills works better. For what it is worth, I think Josh would do better passing from inside the 5 than Pat would do running if you flipped the attempts.

 

 

Edited August 14 by Mikey152

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Maybe. But to be fair, Our #1 RB the last 5 seasons hasn't exactly been a big back, and they aren't really downhill runners either.

 

As for the passing, I think the Bills and Chiefs have gone opposite directions. Once upon a time, Josh didn't turn the ball over in the RZ...then all of a sudden he did. We threw it alot in 2020. He also got really good at sneaks. 

 

Conversely, Mahomes is not a big guy and got hurt on a running play...so the Chiefs moved away from sneaks (and running in general) inside the 5. They use Mahomes legs to create TDs, just in a different way.

 

But at the end of the day, both teams play to their strengths and the Bills works better. For what it is worth, I think Josh would do better passing from inside the 5 than Pat would do running if you flipped the attempts.

 

 

I think what @GoBills808 is trying to say is:

 

Eagles sneak a lot/use Hurts rushing because it’s a team strength.

 

The Bills sneak a lot/use Josh rushing because they have to.

[Rubes]

The Bills ran a play against the Pats**** a couple years ago down at the goal line that was brilliant, and almost undefendable.

 

IIRC, there were two receivers to the left, one was Dawson Knox. Each was man covered. Josh rolled to the left, and the defenders had to choose between stopping a Josh run or staying on their man. It was a losing proposition. Stay on your man, Josh runs it in. Leave your man, Josh hits the guy you left.

 

One left Knox, and Josh sidearmed it to him. Easy peasy.

 

Never saw that play again.

 

[4th&long]

It’s talking about passing. That’s cause Josh and the backs, mainly Josh run it in! 

[cale]

The way this video has been edited, he is making the point that the problem is our QB. Why we don't ever go power formation when we need 1 yard and then have Josh run a bootleg is beyond me.

[MJS]

Don't the Bills just sneak it on the goalline? They don't attempt many passing plays from there.

 

This seems like a cherry picked stat to just trash the Bills. Plus it doesn't even give the Chiefs ranking, which would be nice since they are making a comparison. Instead they compare our goalline passing to their superbowls.

[Captain Caveman]

Yeah, 4th in TD Scoring % in the red zone last year (and Chiefs were 19th?)

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

9th in 2022

1st in 2021

 

If you're going to say Josh is the problem are you not going to give him credit for his red zone rushing TDs?

[Billl]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Does a TD at the 1 yard line count more than a TD at the 5 or 11 yard line?

No, but it counts more than a FG.  This is actually an interesting stat, though.  If anything, it tells me that the Bills have a lot of meat left on the bone offensively despite being one of the highest scoring offenses in the league.  There’s reason to believe they can be even better.