GunnerBill Posted August 14 Posted August 14 11 hours ago, msw2112 said: Backups like Reich don't exist anymore. Either you have a veteran guy who can't cut it as a starter (like Mitch) or you have a young, developmental guy, who, if he shows potential, will be signed by another team to be a starter after his rookie contract runs out, or just isn't very good and flames out after bouncing around the league for a few years (like Jake Fromm, who was just signed by someone today). Thus, many teams go with a guy who had a good draft pedigree and got some starting experience, but never quite panned out as a starter. Guys like Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert, Carson Wentz, etc. There were guys like Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold out there who may actually begin the season as starters, and could have been backups for the Bills, but they are well-paid, with Brissett at $8M and Darnold at $10M and the Bills didn't have cap space for them. Plus, is Sam Darnold any better than Trubisky? I'd argue they're about the same. Brissett may be a little bit better, but he's never been able to hold onto a permanent starting job anywhere himself and is pricey at $8M. So I think that Mitch is about as good a fit as anyone. If he played great in Pittsburgh, he'd be starting there this year instead of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. He didn't, and as such, he was available as a veteran backup. Yep in the era of free agency nobody is keeping Frank Reich as a backup for 9 years. Just isn't happening. Your choices now are: 1. The 4 or 5 established bridge/backup guys in the league at any one time who are normally signed to decent contracts by teams with a question mark at the position or who are intending to draft their starter that year: Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton types.... 2. The former starter who hasn't quite established themselves as a reliable backup yet but still feels like a talent worth a punt on but again get decent FA money unless you can snag them while still on a rookie deal: Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Kenny Picket, Mitch Trubisky, Mac Jones... 3. The mid-round guy you drafted, tried as a starter, and now have cheap as a backup still on a rookie deal: Sam Howell, Davis Mills, Desmond Ridder, Kyle Trask.... 4. The bounce around the league guys who go from team to team year on year as backups and normally never see the field and when they do have inconsistent results: Josh Dobbs, Tyrod Taylor, Mike White, Jake Browning... Sometimes you strike lucky with a guy from category 4. The Bengals did last year. But Jake Browning had been in the league for four years without seeing the field. It's not like anyone was ranking him as a top backup. If the Bills are really stuck and Trubisky stinks it up again in pre-season the realistic, logical option I can see is trade with the Falcons for Taylor Heinicke. He is the bounce around the league category too, but looks like being the #3 in Atlanta as things stand. He would only bring a $1.2m cap hit with him and I'm not sure who else is coming that cheap with a chance to be an improvement. I'm not saying he is definitely better than Trubisky, but if it isn't working with him then Heinicke is a viable and attainable alternative IMO. 4 Quote
SoCal Deek Posted August 14 Posted August 14 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Yep in the era of free agency nobody is keeping Frank Reich as a backup for 9 years. Just isn't happening. Your choices now are: 1. The 4 or 5 established bridge/backup guys in the league at any one time who are normally signed to decent contracts by teams with a question mark at the position or who are intending to draft their starter that year: Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton types.... 2. The former starter who hasn't quite established themselves as a reliable backup yet but still feels like a talent worth a punt on but again get decent FA money unless you can snag them while still on a rookie deal: Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Kenny Picket, Mitch Trubisky, Mac Jones... 3. The mid-round guy you drafted, tried as a starter, and now have cheap as a backup still on a rookie deal: Sam Howell, Davis Mills, Desmond Ridder, Kyle Trask.... 4. The bounce around the league guys who go from team to team year on year as backups and normally never see the field and when they do have inconsistent results: Josh Dobbs, Tyrod Taylor, Mike White, Jake Browning... Sometimes you strike lucky with a guy from category 4. The Bengals did last year. But Jake Browning had been in the league for four years without seeing the field. It's not like anyone was ranking him as a top backup. If the Bills are really stuck and Trubisky stinks it up again in pre-season the realistic, logical option I can see is trade with the Falcons for Taylor Heinicke. He is the bounce around the league category too, but looks like being the #3 in Atlanta as things stand. He would only bring a $1.2m cap hit with him and I'm not sure who else is coming that cheap with a chance to be an improvement. I'm not saying he is definitely better than Trubisky, but if it isn't working with him then Heinicke is a viable and attainable alternative IMO. Should there be a Category 5? Most commonly referred to as the Peterman Category. 1 1 Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted August 14 Posted August 14 On 8/12/2024 at 10:53 PM, Freddie's Dead said: Who's Tribusky? On 8/13/2024 at 4:27 AM, stuvian said: I think he owns the deli down the street He owns a bunch of delis in lower Manhattan... below Canal Street. On 8/12/2024 at 11:48 PM, Big Turk said: Chicago has never really had a franchise QB in its history so if you get drafted by then, there is a good chance you will end up like the rest of the QBs they have had over the last 100+ years...on a second contract somewhere else. To the bolded, not in the modern era but they do have a HOF QB. On 8/13/2024 at 1:20 AM, BobbyC81 said: 2020 seems to be an outlier with all 4 hits. 2018 and 2021 seem to be the norm. So, chances are that only 2 of the 5 QBs taken in the 2024 first round will be solid starters or better. To the bolded all 5 seem to be off to really impressive starts. 23 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said: One other note on NFL QB's, almost all the good one are high draft picks, but not necessarily the 1st over pick. Stafford is the only 1st overall pick to win a Super Bowl in recent years, although Burrow made it to the Super Bowl. If you had to make a list of the top 10 QBs in the NFL + HOFers still playing (excluding players drafted in 2023 or 2024), your list would likely include Mahomes (10th overall), Allen (7th overall), Tua (5th overall), Love (26th overall), Herbert (6th overall), Goff (1st overall), Stafford (1st overall), Burrow (1st overall), Rodgers (24th overall), and Jackson (32nd overall). The only guys outside the 1st round are Purdy (262nd), Prescott (135th) and maybe Hurts (53rd). Even the next layer are mostly 1st rounders; Mayfield (1st overall), Lawrence (1st overall), Watson (when mentally stable -12th overall), Murray (1st overall). Only Geno Smith (39th overall) is in this tier and he's a surprise. PS I'd add Stroud to these lists (2nd overall), but one year is not enough to establish a trend, but he's off to a great start. So why do guys like Trubisky get drafted high? Well GM's are desperate for a franchise QB and will do almost anything to get one. 18 hours ago, Koufax said: Such a good example about how imprecise the draft is, and not just when the Patriots took Antwan Harris in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. For Mitch to be QB1 over Mahomes and Watson, or Darnold over Allen. What we can see pretty surely looking back is obviously the importance of QB is so high, and the certainty of any given prospect relatively low, that rolling the dice is always part of the process. There are drafts where there are multiple superstars, and there are drafts where there are zero valuable players, but if you have a top 10 pick and you don't have a franchise quarterback, you have to assess. But scouting misses I think fall into three main areas: 1) Overvaluing less important traits because "Scout". Accuracy, decision making, leadership are the real three traits, and now we are adding a game speed mobility element as the game evolves. Size/strength/hand size and all the lesser things that are more measurable ones often have people imagine what could be. 2) Player development. USC Darnold was better than Wyoming Josh as a moment in time QB for a number of reasons. But Josh's stunning improvements in accuracy and decision making and Darnold's inability to process the differences between college and NFL defenses (think the Patriots ghosts game) changed that all pretty quickly. Is there a way to know that / predict that ahead of time with more accuracy than these draft rooms do? I think probably, but the teams that do so don't usually need to try again for 15 years, so it is a small sample skill hard to really know. 3) System advantages. Plugging a specific player into two different team settings can certainly change the equation. Would Andy Reid have done a better job with Watson or Trubisky? If Brady went in the 4th round to Jags? For the record I wanted Watson at #10 and was mad when we traded down. I would have passed on Mahomes, and I stayed mad until Josh became Josh. Excellent posts. Having played organized sports I've seen one determinant of success that hasn't been mentioned yet... I'll call it politics... particularly as it relates to draft position. While I do believe that high stakes pro sports is pretty close to a meritocracy, guys that are drafted higher are more heavily inested in as far as money, emotions, egos of the decision makers, etc. Therefore these chosen few have a longer leash, more doubling-down in investment, and more time and opportunities to fulfill their promise. If you're drafted higher you're more likely to get 2nd and 3rd chances. For QBs trying to adjust to the speed of the pro game that's a big advantage. There are many players at all levels of sports that are not given (or know they won't be given) the same opportunity and choose to walk away. So a part of success is a self-fulfilling prophecy... based on the politics of draft position. 17 hours ago, dorquemada said: Yeah they really tried to make that a thing Kind of like the Tommy DeVito thing with the Giants. 1 1 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted August 14 Posted August 14 4 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said: Excellent posts. Having played organized sports I've seen one determinant of success that hasn't been mentioned yet... I'll call it politics... particularly as it relates to draft position. While I do believe that high stakes pro sports is pretty close to a meritocracy, guys that are drafted higher are more heavily inested in as far as money, emotions, egos of the decision makers, etc. Therefore these chosen few have a longer leash, more doubling-down in investment, and more time and opportunities to fulfill their promise. If you're drafted higher you're more likely to get 2nd and 3rd chances. For QBs trying to adjust to the speed of the pro game that's a big advantage. There are many players at all levels of sports that are not given (or know they won't be given) the same opportunity and choose to walk away. So a part of success is a self-fulfilling prophecy... based on the politics of draft position. I'm not sure I agree with this 100%. 1st rd picks, especially in the NHL and NFL, certainly get the benefit of the doubt and multiple opportunities (especially QBs) even if the crap out at their 1st team. However, once they hit the practice field, coaches and GMs want to put the best team on the field. It's why Cousins beat out RG3. It's why Benford beat our Elam here in Buffalo. There are plenty of other examples. Certainly $ invested in a player matter. Dead cap is a serious issue in the NFL and teams try to avoid it. Would the Bills had kept Elam around to develop if he was a 6th rd pick vs a 1st rd pick. Maybe not. Will MVS make the team because of his dead cap hit if released? Probably, but Beane has been more aggressive in dumping players regardless of cost. (See Diggs and White). In fact the Bills dead cap this season is over 61 million, the 2nd largest in the league. Quote
Sierra Foothills Posted August 14 Posted August 14 25 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said: Excellent posts. Having played organized sports I've seen one determinant of success that hasn't been mentioned yet... I'll call it politics... particularly as it relates to draft position. While I do believe that high stakes pro sports is pretty close to a meritocracy, guys that are drafted higher are more heavily inested in as far as money, emotions, egos of the decision makers, etc. Therefore these chosen few have a longer leash, more doubling-down in investment, and more time and opportunities to fulfill their promise. If you're drafted higher you're more likely to get 2nd and 3rd chances. For QBs trying to adjust to the speed of the pro game that's a big advantage. There are many players at all levels of sports that are not given (or know they won't be given) the same opportunity and choose to walk away. So a part of success is a self-fulfilling prophecy... based on the politics of draft position. 7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said: I'm not sure I agree with this 100%. 1st rd picks, especially in the NHL and NFL, certainly get the benefit of the doubt and multiple opportunities (especially QBs) even if the crap out at their 1st team. However, once they hit the practice field, coaches and GMs want to put the best team on the field. It's why Cousins beat out RG3. It's why Benford beat our Elam here in Buffalo. There are plenty of other examples. Certainly $ invested in a player matter. Dead cap is a serious issue in the NFL and teams try to avoid it. Would the Bills had kept Elam around to develop if he was a 6th rd pick vs a 1st rd pick. Maybe not. Will MVS make the team because of his dead cap hit if released? Probably, but Beane has been more aggressive in dumping players regardless of cost. (See Diggs and White). In fact the Bills dead cap this season is over 61 million, the 2nd largest in the league. "While I do believe that high stakes pro sports is pretty close to a meritocracy, guys that are drafted higher are more heavily invested in as far as money, emotions, egos of the decision makers, etc." "So a part of success is a self-fulfilling prophecy... based on the politics of draft position." Quote
Big Turk Posted August 14 Posted August 14 (edited) 4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said: He owns a bunch of delis in lower Manhattan... below Canal Street. To the bolded, not in the modern era but they do have a HOF QB. To the bolded all 5 seem to be off to really impressive starts. Excellent posts. Having played organized sports I've seen one determinant of success that hasn't been mentioned yet... I'll call it politics... particularly as it relates to draft position. While I do believe that high stakes pro sports is pretty close to a meritocracy, guys that are drafted higher are more heavily inested in as far as money, emotions, egos of the decision makers, etc. Therefore these chosen few have a longer leash, more doubling-down in investment, and more time and opportunities to fulfill their promise. If you're drafted higher you're more likely to get 2nd and 3rd chances. For QBs trying to adjust to the speed of the pro game that's a big advantage. There are many players at all levels of sports that are not given (or know they won't be given) the same opportunity and choose to walk away. So a part of success is a self-fulfilling prophecy... based on the politics of draft position. Kind of like the Tommy DeVito thing with the Giants. Yeah but back in the day, HOF level play at QB was only throwing 5 more INTs than TDs instead of 20 more and completing 50% of your passes instead of 40% . Essentially these players would have a QB rating of like 50. Edited August 14 by Big Turk Quote
stuvian Posted August 14 Posted August 14 (edited) The Bears best QBs were from the silent film era Edited August 14 by stuvian Quote
Dan Darragh Posted August 15 Posted August 15 When you think of the fact that 5 of the top 10 picks in the 2006 draft played for the Bills (to no apparent success), it makes you wonder. #1 Mario Williams #2 Reggie Bush #3 Vince Young #8 Donte Whitner #10 Matt Leinart Quote
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