Why Did Tribusky Go #2 Overall?

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, msw2112 said:

If my memory serves me correctly, the Bears were not alone.  Most of the draftniks had him going top-5.  He was considered raw (because he hadn't played that much), but with a very high ceiling.  Here's a pre-draft article about it:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/the-book-on-mitch-trubisky-scouting-polarizing-unc-qb-0ap3000000785960

 

It's too bad for Mitch that it hasn't really worked out in the NFL, but if it had, he wouldn't be with the Bills, he'd be the Bears' franchise QB, and Justin Fields and Caleb Williams would have ended up elsewhere.

 

Chicago has never really had a franchise QB in its history so if you get drafted by then, there is a good chance you will end up like the rest of the QBs they have had over the last 100+ years...on a second contract somewhere else.

[BillsFanForever19]

The right makeup and tools. Just didn't put it together. Many high picked QB's suffer the same fate. He was considered a safer bet than Mahomes, who was thought of as a product of Texas Tech's offense. And DeShaun Watson.... well, gotta imagine there were some character flags there.

[BobbyC81]

11 hours ago, US Egg said:

Some 1st round QB fun facts of late:

 

 https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/11/24103804/how-successful-are-quarterbacks-drafted-in-round-1

 2020 seems to be an outlier with all 4 hits.   2018 and 2021 seem to be the norm.

 

So, chances are that only 2 of the 5 QBs taken in the 2024 first round will be solid starters or better.

 

I saw Caleb Williams struggle under pressure by the upper echelon defenses he played against in college but the Bears gave him one of the best WR groups a rookie QB has ever had.  They already had DJ Moore and then added Keenan Allen and Odunze?  Guys like Josh may be envious.

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

 2020 seems to be an outlier with all 4 hits.   2018 and 2021 seem to be the norm.

 

So, chances are that only 2 of the 5 QBs taken in the 2024 first round will be solid starters or better.

 

I saw Caleb Williams struggle under pressure by the upper echelon defenses he played against in college but the Bears gave him one of the best WR groups a rookie QB has ever had.  They already had DJ Moore and then added Keenan Allen and Odunze?  Guys like Josh may be envious.

 

Yea 2020 was a good class. On Caleb I am pretty confident that he at the very least is going to be a serviceable NFL starting Quarterback. 

[bmur66]

Fools gold

[stuvian]

5 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Who's Tribusky?

 

I think he owns the deli down the street

[amprov56]

I had two close friends/associates, one made it to the final cut in Oakland 1975 and the other had a successful college stint at Nebraska in the late 1990's. They explained that many players, especially QBs have the intelligence, physical attributes and the arm for success in the NFL; the just can't process the gane at NFL speed. Once you leave high school to a major college the speed of the game and players including size and strength is far cry from the varsity, the college world a different planet and the NFL another universe.

[GASabresIUFan]

One other note on NFL QB's, almost all the good one are high draft picks, but not necessarily the 1st over pick.  Stafford is the only 1st overall pick to win a Super Bowl in recent years, although Burrow made it to the Super Bowl.

 

If you had to make a list of the top 10 QBs in the NFL + HOFers still playing (excluding players drafted in 2023 or 2024), your list would likely include Mahomes (10th overall), Allen (7th overall), Tua (5th overall), Love (26th overall), Herbert (6th overall), Goff (1st overall), Stafford (1st overall), Burrow (1st overall), Rodgers (24th overall), and Jackson (32nd overall).  The only guys outside the 1st round are Purdy (262nd), Prescott (135th) and maybe Hurts (53rd).  

 

Even the next layer are mostly 1st rounders; Mayfield (1st overall), Lawrence (1st overall), Watson (when mentally stable -12th overall), Murray (1st overall).  Only Geno Smith (39th overall) is in this tier and he's a surprise.

 

PS I'd add Stroud to these lists (2nd overall), but one year is not enough to establish a trend, but he's off to a great start.

 

So why do guys like Trubisky get drafted high?  Well GM's are desperate for a franchise QB and will do almost anything to get one.  

[prissythecat]

17 hours ago, mannc said:

There was a poster here who went on a six-month crusade for Trubisky leading up to the 2017 draft…I am pretty sure he’s no longer around, or, more likely, changed his name.

 

 

[dorquemada]

17 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

 

 

He wasn't very good in Pittsburgh the last couple of years, but nobody else the Steelers trotted out was any good either, and I think they may all be gone.  Maybe that "Duck" guy is still around?  I know they have Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, two guys who were not very good last year with the teams they were on.

 

Remember when one of the TV smoothbrains said Duck Hodges (??) was already better than Josh Allen?  That had to be nick wright, right?

[NoSaint]

18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

In 2018, he threw for 3,000+ yards in 14 games with a passer rating of 95.4 and a QBR of 71.  He's not entirely devoid of talent.

 

But I heard a scout once explain the poor hit rate with QBs.  According to him, no college QBs are truly NFL-ready.  So you have to guess who will improve their mental skills (schemes, pre-snap reads, leadership, etc.) as well as their physical skills. 

 

Part of this is psychology: Who's going to avoid the distractions that come with fame and money and do the work?  

It's all guesswork.  Educated guesswork, to be sure, but still fraught with uncertainty.   For whatever reason, Chicago seemed to expect more growth from Trubisky than he delivered.  

 

 

 

roll in injury luck, finding a good situation to grow in, etc… there’s a lot that goes into it beyond just talent and hard work 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

Good points made up thread, it just shows what a crapshoot the draft is, potential potential potential 

[BillMafia716ix]

The need for QB’s always drive prospects up the draft board around combine time. You have a good interview and do well in the workouts you could potentially go from an early 2nd round pick to easily a top 10 pick. 

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, amprov56 said:

I had two close friends/associates, one made it to the final cut in Oakland 1975 and the other had a successful college stint at Nebraska in the late 1990's. They explained that many players, especially QBs have the intelligence, physical attributes and the arm for success in the NFL; the just can't process the gane at NFL speed. Once you leave high school to a major college the speed of the game and players including size and strength is far cry from the varsity, the college world a different planet and the NFL another universe.

we use the phrase game of inches all the time but at qb it really comes down to tiny margins on a handful of plays each game. The gap between someone like dak or cousins and say Fitzpatrick isn’t huge and fits to guys that never see the field is a sliver again

Edited August 13 by NoSaint

[amprov56]

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

we use the phrase game of inches all the time but at qb it really comes down to tiny margins on a handful of plays each game. The gap between someone like dak or cousins and say Fitzpatrick isn’t huge and fits to guys that never see the field is a sliver again

Truly is, the ability to make quick and correct decisions - great post!

[Utah John]

Trubisky is the unAllen.  Trubisky started out great for Chicago, and then became very unproductive.  I can only figure that defensive coordinators in his division analyzed his game and figured out how to stop him.  He's been very mediocre since.

 

Josh Allen started out as a raw, inaccurate passer, but he worked his butt off to become a very accurate passer and of course has always been a strong runner and a great leader.  He's continued to improve season after season, although his biggest improvements came in his second and third seasons.  (Not much room to get better when you're as good as he is now.)

[Koufax]

21 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I don’t watch a lot of college football so this is actually a serious question.  Not talking 20/20 hindsight but why him over Mahones and Watson?  His arm looks average. Same with accuracy.  Some mobility but nothing special.  Was it just the Bears screwing the pooch?  If Bears didn’t take him would he have gone top 10?  First round?  Just curious.

 

Such a good example about how imprecise the draft is, and not just when the Patriots took Antwan Harris in the 6th round of the 2000 draft.

 

For Mitch to be QB1 over Mahomes and Watson, or Darnold over Allen.

 

What we can see pretty surely looking back is obviously the importance of QB is so high, and the certainty of any given prospect relatively low, that rolling the dice is always part of the process.

 

There are drafts where there are multiple superstars, and there are drafts where there are zero valuable players, but if you have a top 10 pick and you don't have a franchise quarterback, you have to assess.

 

But scouting misses I think fall into three main areas:

1) Overvaluing less important traits because "Scout". Accuracy, decision making, leadership are the real three traits, and now we are adding a game speed mobility element as the game evolves. Size/strength/hand size and all the lesser things that are more measurable ones often have people imagine what could be.

 

2) Player development. USC Darnold was better than Wyoming Josh as a moment in time QB for a number of reasons. But Josh's stunning improvements in accuracy and decision making and Darnold's inability to process the differences between college and NFL defenses (think the Patriots ghosts game) changed that all pretty quickly. Is there a way to know that / predict that ahead of time with more accuracy than these draft rooms do? I think probably, but the teams that do so don't usually need to try again for 15 years, so it is a small sample skill hard to really know.

 

3) System advantages. Plugging a specific player into two different team settings can certainly change the equation. Would Andy Reid have done a better job with Watson or Trubisky? If Brady went in the 4th round to Jags?

 

For the record I wanted Watson at #10 and was mad when we traded down. I would have passed on Mahomes, and I stayed mad until Josh became Josh.

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, dorquemada said:

 

Remember when one of the TV smoothbrains said Duck Hodges (??) was already better than Josh Allen?  That had to be nick wright, right?

Duck Dodgers of the 24th Century? 

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Duck Dodgers of the 24th Century? 

 

Yeah they really tried to make that a thing

[msw2112]

21 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Dude you lose all credibility saying that after his performance last year for Pittsburgh.  And his performance on Saturday against the Bears.  He has trouble completing any pass more the 8 yards down the field.  
 

Remember Frank Reich.  That was a good back up.  Granted there are not many good ones out there.  But we need to find someone who can light it up some of the time.  

 

Backups like Reich don't exist anymore.  Either you have a veteran guy who can't cut it as a starter (like Mitch) or you have a young, developmental guy, who, if he shows potential, will be signed by another team to be a starter after his rookie contract runs out, or just isn't very good and flames out after bouncing around the league for a few years (like Jake Fromm, who was just signed by someone today).  

 

Thus, many teams go with a guy who had a good draft pedigree and got some starting experience, but never quite panned out as a starter.  Guys like Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert, Carson Wentz, etc.  There were guys like Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold out there who may actually begin the season as starters, and could have been backups for the Bills, but they are well-paid, with Brissett at $8M and Darnold at $10M and the Bills didn't have cap space for them.  Plus, is Sam Darnold any better than Trubisky?  I'd argue they're about the same.  Brissett may be a little bit better, but he's never been able to hold onto a permanent starting job anywhere himself and is pricey at $8M.  So I think that Mitch is about as good a fit as anyone.  If he played great in Pittsburgh, he'd be starting there this year instead of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.  He didn't, and as such, he was available as a veteran backup.