Why Did Tribusky Go #2 Overall?

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

In 2018, he threw for 3,000+ yards in 14 games with a passer rating of 95.4 and a QBR of 71.  He's not entirely devoid of talent.

 

But I heard a scout once explain the poor hit rate with QBs.  According to him, no college QBs are truly NFL-ready.  So you have to guess who will improve their mental skills (schemes, pre-snap reads, leadership, etc.) as well as their physical skills. 

 

Part of this is psychology: Who's going to avoid the distractions that come with fame and money and do the work?  

It's all guesswork.  Educated guesswork, to be sure, but still fraught with uncertainty.   For whatever reason, Chicago seemed to expect more growth from Trubisky than he delivered.  

 

 

 

That was his one and only good season(2018). He put up decent numbers in 2020 but way below 18'. Like many here have said, if we need him for more than a couple games, then the season is already over. I thought Milton would've been a very cheap player you could develop as a solid backup to Josh. But we keep signing these vet "retreads" like Barkley, Keenum,  Kyle A or Trubisky.  When in theory we should've already drafted a good 5th/6th round backup.

 

Oh well?

[Paup 1995MVP]

56 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

Trubisky is a good backup for the current Bills team.  If he were without his flaws, he'd be a starter somewhere else.  He's got a lot of NFL starting experience and has played well in spots.  He's got a live arm and some mobility.  He appears to be a team-first kind of guy who will support Allen and be a good influence in the QB room.  I believe that he could be a serviceable starter for the Bills if he got a full week of reps with the first team offense.  Will he be Josh Allen?  No.  Will he be a superstar QB, worthy of his draft status?  No (that ship has sailed).  Is he going to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs?  No.  Could he win a couple games as a starter, if the Bills had a semblance of a running game and played solid defense and special teams?  Yes. 

 

He wasn't very good in Pittsburgh the last couple of years, but nobody else the Steelers trotted out was any good either, and I think they may all be gone.  Maybe that "Duck" guy is still around?  I know they have Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, two guys who were not very good last year with the teams they were on.

Dude you lose all credibility saying that after his performance last year for Pittsburgh.  And his performance on Saturday against the Bears.  He has trouble completing any pass more the 8 yards down the field.  
 

Remember Frank Reich.  That was a good back up.  Granted there are not many good ones out there.  But we need to find someone who can light it up some of the time.  

[ghostwriter]

59 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

They call the draft a crap shoot for a reason. True for every position in every round, but you need to get that QB right. That is increasingly the #1 rule in the NFL. 

Especially at QB. I don’t think anyone thought of Mitch as a generational talent, but if you need a QB and you’re picking in the top 10 you go for it. You miss every shot you don’t take.

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I don’t watch a lot of college football so this is actually a serious question.  Not talking 20/20 hindsight but why him over Mahones and Watson?  His arm looks average. Same with accuracy.  Some mobility but nothing special.  Was it just the Bears screwing the pooch?  If Bears didn’t take him would he have gone top 10?  First round?  Just curious.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2017-nfl-draft-deshone-kizer-mitch-trubisky-top-qb-prospects-0ap3000000787378
 

 

[Augie]

How did EJ Manuel go #16? 

 

Somebody decided they needed a QB and in a panic got it wrong. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I don’t watch a lot of college football so this is actually a serious question.  Not talking 20/20 hindsight but why him over Mahones and Watson?  His arm looks average. Same with accuracy.  Some mobility but nothing special.  Was it just the Bears screwing the pooch?  If Bears didn’t take him would he have gone top 10?  First round?  Just curious.

The answer is simple. The team that drafted him thought he was their best shot at a franchise QB.

 

the reality of the NFL is that you have to chase QB’s. If there is a guy you like and believe in the first round and you don’t have a QB of the future, you draft him. If he’s up high, you go after him. 

 

You will get most wrong. Everyone does.

 

You will talk yourself into a guy you shouldn’t. Everyone does.

 

It’s like the opposite of War Games. The only way to win is to play the game.

 

The Bills had regime after regime that was PETRIFIED to take a QB. It’s probably the single biggest reason we had the longest playoff drought in football. Now, they had lots of reasons, “we didn’t like any of the QBs enough” etc but it’s a losing strategy.

 

It’s really simple, and even NFL people know this, they are just mostly self-serving and don’t want to be catastrophically wrong so they can keep their jobs.

 

Look at us now. We are rooting for the Dolphins to keep Tua, because he’s not the answer and we don’t want them to chase a QB again and get it right. The Pats taking a big swing on a QB is much worse for us than if they took a great WR or OT prospect and kept Mac Jones or brought in some journeyman. 
 

All you have to ask is “what do your rivals want you to do,” and do the opposite.

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

How did EJ Manuel go #16? 

 

Somebody decided they needed a QB and in a panic got it wrong. 

This is the kind of take that is so frustrating. There was nothing wrong with the decision to take EJ, except that it didn’t work. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I don’t watch a lot of college football so this is actually a serious question.  Not talking 20/20 hindsight but why him over Mahones and Watson?  His arm looks average. Same with accuracy.  Some mobility but nothing special.  Was it just the Bears screwing the pooch?  If Bears didn’t take him would he have gone top 10?  First round?  Just curious.

Because the Bears are gonna bear.  Same reason they took an over rated @** clown #1 this year. 

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

This is the kind of take that is so frustrating. There was nothing wrong with the decision to take EJ, except that it didn’t work. 

 

My son went to FSU during EJ’s days. He was at every home game.  My son was a good HS QB who was POY in his Conference, First Team All Area despite a team up the road being #1 in the country that year, etc. He declined college offers. He knows a bit of football, and he told me EJ was hot garbage. Nice guy, but he’ll never be a good NFL QB. 

 

I will always wish him well. 

[notpolian]

EJ Manuel played for FSU around the time when they started their long slow slide into mediocrity.  They are just now finally out of it.   No one has ever been worried about playing against EJ Manuel.  He was surrounded by pretty good talent in a fairly weak ACC.  The day they drafted him was pretty depressing.  Wasn't he Bruce Smith's nephew or something?  That Bills regime were not the smartest guys in the room.

[Teddy KGB]

He was amazing at UNC 

 

 

[thenorthremembers]

He had good size, great athleticism and very good production.      Draft is an absolute crap shoot.   Like most drafts the QBs drafted that year about 30% made a career out of it.   Just looks a lot worse because Mahomes was in his class.   

[Yobogoya!]

30 minutes ago, notpolian said:

EJ Manuel played for FSU around the time when they started their long slow slide into mediocrity.  They are just now finally out of it.   No one has ever been worried about playing against EJ Manuel.  He was surrounded by pretty good talent in a fairly weak ACC.  The day they drafted him was pretty depressing.  Wasn't he Bruce Smith's nephew or something?  That Bills regime were not the smartest guys in the room.

Drafting a him in a supremely weak QB draft was one thing, but imagine cutting Ryan Fitzpatrick right afterward because you assumed EJ was going to beat him out for starter. 
 

Those were some good times, lol. 

[DapperCam]

Didn't it come out that Trubisky couldn't throw to his left? I think in general he's been a QB where if his first read isn't open then he's screwed. That was okay in college, but not in the NFL. Also seems like his accuracy can be really wonky sometimes.

I kind of wonder how Drake Maye will do. Seems like he had a similar college career, and he just got picked #3 overall.

[MJS]

Because he was a serious 1st round QB prospect. That's what the draft is like. It is a big gamble.

 

That being said, Trubisky has pretty good stats. He is 31-26 as a starter. 64% completion percentage. 72 TD's to just 48 INT's. 12,000 passing yards. Career 85.5 passer rating. Plus, he has some mobility. He also made the pro bowl in 2018. On paper, he is a good backup. Heck, those are excellent backup stats.

 

I'll admit that his trajectory has been down the last couple of years. Still, I think you are overreacting to just one preseason game.

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I don’t watch a lot of college football so this is actually a serious question.  Not talking 20/20 hindsight but why him over Mahones and Watson?  His arm looks average. Same with accuracy.  Some mobility but nothing special.  Was it just the Bears screwing the pooch?  If Bears didn’t take him would he have gone top 10?  First round?  Just curious.

A lot of analysts had him as the top QB in the draft.  Even Jeremy White on WGR was pining for “Money Mitch.”

 

There were questions about him as pro - as there were about other highly rated QB’s in DeShaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.  
 

Trubisky has a pretty good season in 2018 and there was reason for optimism but he peaked in Year 2.

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That was his one and only good season(2018). He put up decent numbers in 2020 but way below 18'. Like many here have said, if we need him for more than a couple games, then the season is already over. I thought Milton would've been a very cheap player you could develop as a solid backup to Josh. But we keep signing these vet "retreads" like Barkley, Keenum,  Kyle A or Trubisky.  When in theory we should've already drafted a good 5th/6th round backup.

 

Oh well?

 

You may be right.  Maybe Milton would have been a better choice - if he was available.  

 

But Trubisky had three mediocre 3,000+ yard seasons.   In other words, he's got a lot of NFL gametime experience.  And that's good because the 2nd stringer isn't going to get as  many reps as the QB1.  So you want someone who can take the field in the middle of a game without a lot of practice and take control without a gallon of jitters.  

 

I also think an experienced vet has more value on the sideline and in meeting rooms than a rookie.  

 

If Josh misses an entire season, we're cooked.  But if he misses, let's say, four games, we may be able to win two with Mitch - enough to keep us in the playoff race.  

 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Because he was a serious 1st round QB prospect. That's what the draft is like. It is a big gamble.

 

That being said, Trubisky has pretty good stats. He is 31-26 as a starter. 64% completion percentage. 72 TD's to just 48 INT's. 12,000 passing yards. Career 85.5 passer rating. Plus, he has some mobility. He also made the pro bowl in 2018. On paper, he is a good backup. Heck, those are excellent backup stats.

 

I'll admit that his trajectory has been down the last couple of years. Still, I think you are overreacting to just one preseason game.

Yeah Trubisky has had some good success in the league. I think he’s been more successful than guys like Darnold who would be a similar option for the Bills. 
 

Personally, I’d rather have a guy like Trubisky backing up Josh than Keenum or Kyle Allen for example. Trubisky has a great skill set, has started a lot of game and  is a good athlete. If he’s starting 8 games, I think he wins 5. That’s better than most backups 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

But we keep signing these vet "retreads" like Barkley, Keenum,  Kyle A or Trubisky.  When in theory we should've already drafted a good 5th/6th round backup.

 

Oh well?

 

Actually the Bills drafted Jake Fromm in the 5th round 2 years after drafting Josh Allen.

 

Coincidentally the Lions signed Fromm just today.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/lions-sign-qb-jake-fromm

 

[MJS]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That was his one and only good season(2018). He put up decent numbers in 2020 but way below 18'. Like many here have said, if we need him for more than a couple games, then the season is already over. I thought Milton would've been a very cheap player you could develop as a solid backup to Josh. But we keep signing these vet "retreads" like Barkley, Keenum,  Kyle A or Trubisky.  When in theory we should've already drafted a good 5th/6th round backup.

 

Oh well?

How many 5th/6th round developmental QB's are good backups around the league? I honestly do not know, so can you give me some successful examples from this approach?

[Freddie's Dead]

Who's Tribusky?