Projecting the 53 man roster

[gonzo1105]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’ve been a Bills fan all my life, but this is the first year I’ve been really following the roster creation.  I was fascinated by how Beane was going to extricate the Bills from cap hell and then build a quality team with 60 mill in dead cap. 
 

I’ve been wondering if we should sub-divide our 53 man roster to have a special category for ST primary players like Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Neal, Matekevich, Morris last season.  These guys played 15% or less on offense/defense while playing 70% or more of the ST snaps.  

I’ve come to the conclusion that there are 5 types of players on a roster

1) Starters 

2) Rotational players - who rotate in especially at WR, TE, DT and DE.

3) Backups who don’t play unless needed - usually OL

4) Backups who play on special teams - often LBs, S, CBs, WRs

5) Special teams specialists - LS, Punter, PK, KR, and the aforementioned guys like Gilliam etc…

 

Given the youth on this roster, I think we’ll see more rotational players than usual.  For example, I can see Williams and Deion Jones rotating at LB depending on whether it’s a running play and passing down.  

 

I actually disagree here with the roster structure doesn’t mean I’m right necessarily. I think it’s more likely that the Bills keep cost controlled contracts on their 53 man roster( 4 years)  and try to keep more veterans on the PS especially with the expansion to 17 spots this year and being able to keep 6 unlimited years players on it. Makes me think guys like Jones make more sense like a Klein as insurance while keeping a young LB or two 

[GASabresIUFan]

9 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I actually disagree here with the roster structure doesn’t mean I’m right necessarily. I think it’s more likely that the Bills keep cost controlled contracts on their 53 man roster( 4 years)  and try to keep more veterans on the PS especially with the expansion to 17 spots this year and being able to keep 6 unlimited years players on it. Makes me think guys like Jones make more sense like a Klein as insurance while keeping a young LB or two 

Did you look at last year’s PS before you wrote this?  Last year’s PS contained some vets like Ty Johnson and Isabella, but most were young guys they were looking to develop like Ingram and Shavers but not necessarily Bills draftees.  It doesn’t change the NFL roster categories.  The draftees they keep on the roster are still expected to contribute at least on special teams unless they are OL.  

[gonzo1105]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Did you look at last year’s PS before you wrote this?  Last year’s PS contained some vets like Ty Johnson and Isabella, but most were young guys they were looking to develop like Ingram and Shavers but not necessarily Bills draftees.  It doesn’t change the NFL roster categories.  The draftees they keep on the roster are still expected to contribute at least on special teams unless they are OL.  

 

Sure didn't because this years team and last years team are different. The Bills salary cap is incredibly tight and need to resign some big guys coming up (Rousseau/Brown). By keeping and developing more cost control without the possibility of losing them is paramount.  Plus the difference between their veterans and rookies are negligible. Why would you risk exposing a Ulofoshio or a Spector who is younger and more likely to be picked up on waivers by keeping an aging veteran like Deion Jones. Why keep a Clapp when you can keep a Gouriage who I actually think has outplayed him.

 

The rules state you must keep younger guys, 10, 0-2 years and 6 unlimited years guys. Thats why there are so many young development on PS not because teams choose that route.

 

I don't really think its a huge thing but Deion Jones has been playing in the 4th quarter behind pretty much every healthy LB on the roster and your talking about him rotating with a 2nd year guy they drafted in the 3rd round. Its not going to happen.

[BobbyC81]

I’d definitely take a Garage over the Clapp any day!

 

Baboom ching!

[GASabresIUFan]

The final pre-season game is in the books.  Cut down day is Tuesday.  Given what you saw today, who is in and who is out

 

Specialists (4) - Martin, Bass, Ferguson, Hardy(KR/CB) - I can see Ferguson being cut and then re-signed once someone is put on IR

 

Offense (23)

QB (2) - Allen - Not sure if anyone else has earned a job.  Trubisky is also hurt

RB/FB (4) - Cook, Davis, Johnson, Gilliam (FB/ST) - PS Gore (he certainly helped his cause today)

WR (5) - Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollins, MVS - PS Shavers and Hamler.  Did Hamler's play at RB today up his value?

TE (3) - Kincaid & Knox - Bubble Morris (injury), Davidson, McKitty - Davidson can catch the ball, can they get him to the PS. McKitty is more a blocker than Davidson.  If Morris is hurt we could see McKitty make the initial roster for his blocking and ST play

OL (9) - Brown, Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, Dawkins + Van Denmark, Anderson, SVPG and Grable - Not sure what they do with Clapp and Collins

 

Defense (26)

DE (6) - Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Smoot + Solomon and Jonathan

DT (4) - Oliver, Jones, A Johnson, Carter.  Cut - D. Williams (limited PT could indicate he is in consideration for the 53 man roster)

LB (6) - Williams, Benard, D Jones, Ulofoshio, Spector (IR?), Bubble: Spector, Morrow and Andreessen -  I think Andreessen makes it.  He played ok today and plays ST.  Bills have carried 6 LBs in recent year as Matakevich has played primarily on ST - Andreessen may inherit that role this season.

CB (5) - Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam and Ingram (plus Hardy as CB6/KR & Lewis CB/S/ST).

S (5) - Rapp, Hamlin, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis - Bubble K Jackson

 

Thoughts?

Edited August 25 by GASabresIUFan

[ThunderingHerd]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The final pre-season game is in the books.  Cut down day is Tuesday.  Given what you saw today, who is in and who is out

 

Specialists (4) - Martin, Bass, Ferguson, Hardy(KR/CB) - I can see Ferguson being cut and then re-signed once someone is put on IR

 

Offense (23)

QB (2) - Allen - Not sure if anyone else has earned a job.  Trubisky is also hurt

RB/FB (4) - Cook, Davis, Johnson, Gilliam (FB/ST) - PS Gore (he certainly helped his cause today)

WR (5) - Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollins, MVS - PS Shavers and Hamler.  Did Hamler's play at RB today up his value?

TE (3) - Kincaid & Knox - Bubble Morris (injury), Davidson, McKitty - Davidson can catch the ball, can they get him to the PS. McKitty is more a blocker than Davidson.  If Morris is hurt we could see McKitty make the initial roster for his blocking and ST play

OL (9) - Brown, Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, Dawkins + Van Denmark, Anderson, SVPG and Grable - Not sure what they do with Clapp and Collins

 

Defense (26)

DE (6) - Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Smoot + Solomon and Jonathan

DT (4) - Oliver, Jones, A Johnson, Carter.  Cut - D. Williams (limited PT could indicate he is in consideration for the 53 man roster)

LB (6) - Williams, Benard, D Jones, Ulofoshio, Spector (IR?), Bubble: Spector, Morrow and Andreessen -  I think Andreessen makes it.  He played well again today and plays ST.  Bills have carried 6 LBs in recent year as Matakevich has played primarily on ST - Andreessen may inherit that role this season.

CB (5) - Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam and Ingram (plus Hardy as CB6/KR & Lewis CB/S/ST).

S (5) - Rapp, Hamlin, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis - Bubble K Jackson

 

Thoughts?

Good stuff.  I agree with most of this.  I'd like to see Gore make it to the PS, not sure he clears waivers.  Probably the same with Andreesen if he doesn't make the 53.

[zow2]

I hope Andreesen makes it.  I’ll be kind of irritated if he doesn’t.  This is as raw as he will be and he shows good instincts and ability already…and will only get better. He’s young, inexpensive and hopefully durable (which some of the LBs are not proving to be).

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The final pre-season game is in the books.  Cut down day is Tuesday.  Given what you saw today, who is in and who is out

 

Specialists (4) - Martin, Bass, Ferguson, Hardy(KR/CB) - I can see Ferguson being cut and then re-signed once someone is put on IR

 

Offense (23)

QB (2) - Allen - Not sure if anyone else has earned a job.  Trubisky is also hurt

RB/FB (4) - Cook, Davis, Johnson, Gilliam (FB/ST) - PS Gore (he certainly helped his cause today)

WR (5) - Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollins, MVS - PS Shavers and Hamler.  Did Hamler's play at RB today up his value?

TE (3) - Kincaid & Knox - Bubble Morris (injury), Davidson, McKitty - Davidson can catch the ball, can they get him to the PS. McKitty is more a blocker than Davidson.  If Morris is hurt we could see McKitty make the initial roster for his blocking and ST play

OL (9) - Brown, Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, Dawkins + Van Denmark, Anderson, SVPG and Grable - Not sure what they do with Clapp and Collins

 

Defense (26)

DE (6) - Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Smoot + Solomon and Jonathan

DT (4) - Oliver, Jones, A Johnson, Carter.  Cut - D. Williams (limited PT could indicate he is in consideration for the 53 man roster)

LB (6) - Williams, Benard, D Jones, Ulofoshio, Spector (IR?), Bubble: Spector, Morrow and Andreessen -  I think Andreessen makes it.  He played well again today and plays ST.  Bills have carried 6 LBs in recent year as Matakevich has played primarily on ST - Andreessen may inherit that role this season.

CB (5) - Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam and Ingram (plus Hardy as CB6/KR & Lewis CB/S/ST).

S (5) - Rapp, Hamlin, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis - Bubble K Jackson

 

Thoughts?

DE (-1): Kingsley didn't do enough to justify keeping a 6th DE.  You cut him, Cline, Toohill and hope 1-2 make it back to P/S.

 

LB (-1): First off, Morrow is a lock.  Jones gets cut, hopefully you get him back to P/S, but even if you don't it's OK.  IR Spector and Andreesen makes it to start the season

 

OL (+1): I think Gourage has a legit chance at #10, or it's Collins who has looked serviceable too.  OL depth is a strength, you keep 10 right now

 

WR (+1): This to me is the most difficult decision.  Hamler or Shavers.  Hamler is Curtis Samuel light, also can play in the return game.  Shavers has some untapped potential, big bodied and solid S/T player.  Either of these 2 will likely not dress each week (barring injury).  To me, Shavers gives us more offensive potential (outside) and a young/contract controlled option

 

P/S potential: Dinucci, Evans, Gore, Clapp, Collins, Jones, Kingsley or Cline, Hamler, Cain, Couch, KJ, a new LB, DT Williams, Ankou, Davidson or McKitty, and possibly a K (+ our free P/S player)

 

Note I haven't looked close enough at P/S eligibility rules.

Edited August 25 by MasterStrategist

[billsfan89]

55 minutes ago, ThunderingHerd said:

Good stuff.  I agree with most of this.  I'd like to see Gore make it to the PS, not sure he clears waivers.  Probably the same with Andreesen if he doesn't make the 53.

 

Gore maybe gets claimed, but Andreesen I don't think gets claimed. Lackluster third pre-season game and the fact that he is not a LB that fits too many systems makes me think he is not going to get claimed. The Bills haven't had too many guys get claimed, both guys last year were draft picks from that off-season. 

[ColoradoBills]

22 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

OL (+1): I think Gourage has a legit chance at #10, or it's Collins who has looked serviceable too.  OL depth is a strength, you keep 10 right now

 

Lots of bad talk about Collins BUT he did look pretty good today to me.  Agree that they deep 10-OL, with 6-WR, 3-TE, 4-RB/FB and 2-QB.

Who are the 5 and 6 WRs and 3rd TE (if Morris is hurt enough for IR) are my only questions.

 

I'm going wild with Shavers and Hamlin as 5th and 6th with MVS going to start the season on IR.

[clayboy54]

I wouldn’t be surprised if DiNucci makes it over Trubisky. He looked good today considering he hasn’t been a Bill for 2 weeks yet.

[Nelius]

Why does it feel like Shavers is a McD lock? I feel like it's either him or Hamler, and give me Hamler for general upside

[Pete]

3 hours ago, Nelius said:

Why does it feel like Shavers is a McD lock? I feel like it's either him or Hamler, and give me Hamler for general upside

Shavers is a tough, strong blocking WR that is core special teamer, is healthy.  MVS is not tough, not a strong  blocker, does not play special teams, and is not healthy.

 

Best ability is availability

7 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Lots of bad talk about Collins BUT he did look pretty good today to me.  Agree that they deep 10-OL, with 6-WR, 3-TE, 4-RB/FB and 2-QB.

Who are the 5 and 6 WRs and 3rd TE (if Morris is hurt enough for IR) are my only questions.

 

I'm going wild with Shavers and Hamlin as 5th and 6th with MVS going to start the season on IR.

The problem with Collins- he is a one trick pony.  He can't play T and he can't play C.  Bills prefer versatility, such as Anderson, Clap, SVP, Van der Mark

Edited August 25 by Pete

[Matt_In_NH]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

 

Best ability is availability

The problem with Collins- he is a one trick pony.  He can't play T and he can't play C.  Bills prefer versatility, such as Anderson, Clap, SVP, Van der Mark

Prefer versatility does not mean they always select versatility….they will take the overall best value.  

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, Pete said:

 

The problem with Collins- he is a one trick pony.  He can't play T and he can't play C.  Bills prefer versatility, such as Anderson, Clap, SVP, Van der Mark

 

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Prefer versatility does not mean they always select versatility….they will take the overall best value.  

 

It's a tough choice.  I personally think they keep 10 OL.  If only 9 it's IMO the starting 5 plus Anderson, Van der Mark, VPG and Grable.

If it's 10 than it comes down to Clapp or Collins.  Collins entire $1.5M would be dead money, Clapp is $287k.  If they keep 10 and it's

close they go with Collins.  Another Center would not be needed.

 

Beane and the money vs the cap is not the main reason BUT it will be considered.

[MikePJ76]

16 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if DiNucci makes it over Trubisky. He looked good today considering he hasn’t been a Bill for 2 weeks yet.

The fine folks at Buffalo Plus said Trubisky was limping around like he is really injured and looked like he will miss at least 4 games.

 

He could be headed to IR.  

 

it seems there will be a new QB brought in for sure.  It just cant be dinucci week 1.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

The fine folks at Buffalo Plus said Trubisky was limping around like he is really injured and looked like he will miss at least 4 games.

 

He could be headed to IR.  

 

it seems there will be a new QB brought in for sure.  It just cant be dinucci week 1.

 

Wow.  Thanks for the info.

[billsfan89]

If I had to project the roster 

 

Offense Total- 25

QB (2)- Josh/Mitch 

RB (3)- Cook/Davis/Ty 

FB (1)- Gilliam

TE (4)- Kincaid/Knox/Morris/Davidson

WR (5)- Shakir/Samuel/Keon/Hollins/MVS

OL (10)- Dawkins/Edwards/McGovern/Torrence/Brown starting five with Van Denmark/Anderson/SVPG/Collins/Grabel as the bench

 

Defense Total- 25

DT (4)- Ed Oliver/Carter/Johnson/D.Jones

DE (5)- Groot/Von/AJE/Solomon/Smoot

LB (5)- Bernard/D.Williams/Morrow/Ulo/Spector (Milano on IR and Morrow initially cut then resigned to his spot) 

CB (6)- Douglas/Benford/Taron/Elam/Hardy/Ingram 

S (5)- Edwards/Rapp/Hamlin/Lewis/Bishop

 

Specialists Total 3 

Bass/Martin/Ferguson

 

The bubble spot is going to be a 4th TE or 6th LB or 6th WR . I do think they will also make a trade getting a late round pick for an offensive linemen either Collins or Gouraige I think could fetch something on the market which is starved for even marginal talent. 

 

The following notable players I think will be on the PS if they clear waivers - Gore Jr, Andresseen, Justin Shorter, Hamler, Anthony Brown, Will Clapp (who is a candidate to not clear waivers), Travis Clayton (17th PS spot international player), Kinglsey Jonathan (another candidate to not clear waivers possibly),  and Te'Cory Couch. That's 9 players out of 17 so not sure how they fill out those last 8 spots. Probably add a TE, OT, G, DT, and S at a minimum and then 3 other players who they see potential in. 

 

 

Edited August 25 by billsfan89

[gonzo1105]

My Last 53 Man Projection

 

QB- Allen, Trubisky (2)

 

Cut: Anthony Brown, Ben Dinucci

 

RB- Cook, Davis, Johnson (3)

 

Cut- Evans(Season IR), Gore Jr

 

FB- Gilliam (1)

 

WR- Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, MVS (5)

 

Cut: Isabella, Cain, Byrd, Shorter, Johnson

 

TE: Kincaid, Knox, McKitty (3)

 

Cut: Davidson

 

OL- Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Brown, Anderson, Van Pran, Grable, VandeMark, Collins (10)

 

Cut: Clayton, Britton, Mike Edwards, Jarvis, Bills,

 

DE- Rousseau, Miller, Epenesa, Smoot, Solomon, Jonathon  (6)

 

Cut: Cline, Bothroyd, Toohill

 

DT- Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Carter (4)

 

Cut: Dean, Ankou, Stevenson

 

LB- Bernard, Williams, Spector, Morrow, Ulofoshio (5)

 

Cut: Simon, Jones

 

CB- Douglas, Benford, Elam, Ingram, Johnson, Hardy (6)

 

Cut: Couch, Brown, Lovely

 

SAF- Rapp, Edwards, Hamlin, Bishop, Lewis (5)

 

Cut: Williamson, Burgess, Delaney, Jackson

 

K-Bass

P- Martin

LS- Ferguson (3)

 

 

IR with return- Milano, Morris

 

I try to put in the locks first to see where I'm at in the roster and had 50 but the last 3 spots were incredibly hard. I also believe they will go with an initial 11 guys in the secondary but I can't see them maintaining that all season which leads me to believe there is going to be a trade of a Safety at some point. Obviously Rapp and Bishop will not be going so at some point one of Hamlin, Lewis, or Edwards is going to be traded in my opinion. The last spots really came down to positions.

 

The last 3 guys I added were McKitty, Collins, and Jonathon. The Bills are going to add a 3rd TE whether that is putting Morris in the 3rd spot even injured or going Davidson, McKitty. I went with McKitty because he is more of a blocker as well as a pass threat. I then went with Collins because his contract is guaranteed and will be a veteran presence if anything to help school the younger guys around him. That spot will come down to a 10th lineman, or a 6th WR. Just don't see a 6th WR worth keeping at this point who couldn't be stashed on the PS. The other spot came down to keeping a 6th DE(Jonathon) or a 5th DT(Williams) vs a 6th LB(Andreessen).  I thought long and hard about this as its risky going with 5 LB's especially with Morrow and Spector hurt and their only backup being Ulofoshio who was also injured and a rookie. I think they keep Andreessen on the PS and call him up for the first couple of games to make sure they are covered there. The Bills have traditionally kept 10 DL so that is why I ended up at Jonathon.

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

The fine folks at Buffalo Plus said Trubisky was limping around like he is really injured and looked like he will miss at least 4 games.

 

He could be headed to IR.  

 

it seems there will be a new QB brought in for sure.  It just cant be dinucci week 1.

 

They can roster Trubisky and sign a QB to the Practice Squad whether Dinucci or another Veteran and use his callups at the beginning of the season as well.

[djp14150]

4 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

My Last 53 Man Projection

 

QB- Allen, Trubisky (2)

 

Cut: Anthony Brown, Ben Dinucci

 

RB- Cook, Davis, Johnson (3)

 

Cut- Evans(Season IR), Gore Jr

 

FB- Gilliam (1)

 

WR- Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, MVS (5)

 

Cut: Isabella, Cain, Byrd, Shorter, Johnson

 

TE: Kincaid, Knox, McKitty (3)

 

Cut: Davidson

 

OL- Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Brown, Anderson, Van Pran, Grable, VandeMark, Collins (10)

 

Cut: Clayton, Britton, Mike Edwards, Jarvis, Bills,

 

DE- Rousseau, Miller, Epenesa, Smoot, Solomon, Jonathon  (6)

 

Cut: Cline, Bothroyd, Toohill

 

DT- Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Carter (4)

 

Cut: Dean, Ankou, Stevenson

 

LB- Bernard, Williams, Spector, Morrow, Ulofoshio (5)

 

Cut: Simon, Jones

 

CB- Douglas, Benford, Elam, Ingram, Johnson, Hardy (6)

 

Cut: Couch, Brown, Lovely

 

SAF- Rapp, Edwards, Hamlin, Bishop, Lewis (5)

 

Cut: Williamson, Burgess, Delaney, Jackson

 

K-Bass

P- Martin

LS- Ferguson (3)

 

 

IR with return- Milano, Morris

 

I try to put in the locks first to see where I'm at in the roster and had 50 but the last 3 spots were incredibly hard. I also believe they will go with an initial 11 guys in the secondary but I can't see them maintaining that all season which leads me to believe there is going to be a trade of a Safety at some point. Obviously Rapp and Bishop will not be going so at some point one of Hamlin, Lewis, or Edwards is going to be traded in my opinion. The last spots really came down to positions.

 

The last 3 guys I added were McKitty, Collins, and Jonathon. The Bills are going to add a 3rd TE whether that is putting Morris in the 3rd spot even injured or going Davidson, McKitty. I went with McKitty because he is more of a blocker as well as a pass threat. I then went with Collins because his contract is guaranteed and will be a veteran presence if anything to help school the younger guys around him. That spot will come down to a 10th lineman, or a 6th WR. Just don't see a 6th WR worth keeping at this point who couldn't be stashed on the PS. The other spot came down to keeping a 6th DE(Jonathon) or a 5th DT(Williams) vs a 6th LB(Andreessen).  I thought long and hard about this as its risky going with 5 LB's especially with Morrow and Spector hurt and their only backup being Ulofoshio who was also injured and a rookie. I think they keep Andreessen on the PS and call him up for the first couple of games to make sure they are covered there. The Bills have traditionally kept 10 DL so that is why I ended up at Jonathon.

 

I don’t totally disagree with you…

 

just think  the roster is structured slightly differently

 

2QB

4RB

5WR

3TE

9OL

off=23

4DT

5 DE

5 LB

5 CB

4 S

def=23

4 ST K,P,LS, returner 

3 wildcards 

 

with the wildcards it’s about who might get claimed vs PS. Who needs in season IR

 

Milano goes on preseason IR with intent on going back. Another players goes this route ( Morris?)

i think MVS gets cut then to PS or is in the 4 wildcards for in season IR, same with Gore

i also think you coukd see P and LS get cut to protectvthevrostervthen resigned but I don’t know their contract structure.

 

I’m curious if they make a trade.