sherpa Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 5 minutes ago, rusty shackleford said: I'm not sure why the y-axis is getting cut off on this chart, but it shows the spread between the 2 year and 10 year Treasury yield curves. The solid line just below the dotted line is 0. The spread has been inverted (negative) for over two years now. An inverted yield curve is often cited as an important recession indicator and has historically held up to that expectation. The problem is, the inversion has been dismissed by a lot in the finance field as a "not this time" type of situation because of how long it has been inverted yet no (official) recession has happened. The danger in that thinking is the curve inverting is not the indicator that a recission is about to happen. The real indicator is when the curve snaps back into positive territory quickly, which just happened (5 bps positive right now). It has never been this deeply inverted for this duration before, so it will be very interesting to see how the economy responds over the next few months. All true, but it has been inverted for so long now that I don't think it has any probative value other than bouncing along the bottom. Covid had a bit to do with it, bit the Fed has gotten really good at doing their thing. I wouldn't bet either way. The one thing I would bet on is that 35 trillion in debt is not a long term positive, and will have to be reconciled. We either inflate it away or other, less desirable options occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rusty shackleford Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 2 hours ago, sherpa said: All true, but it has been inverted for so long now that I don't think it has any probative value other than bouncing along the bottom. Covid had a bit to do with it, bit the Fed has gotten really good at doing their thing. I wouldn't bet either way. The one thing I would bet on is that 35 trillion in debt is not a long term positive, and will have to be reconciled. We either inflate it away or other, less desirable options occur. Yeah I wouldn’t bet it either way either, but I’ll at least take it into consideration for risk/reward analysis and make sure to be positioned comfortably in case the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 When they cut rates the same time as the next round of stimulus is released........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeBills Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 3 hours ago, sherpa said: All true, but it has been inverted for so long now that I don't think it has any probative value other than bouncing along the bottom. Covid had a bit to do with it, bit the Fed has gotten really good at doing their thing. I wouldn't bet either way. The one thing I would bet on is that 35 trillion in debt is not a long term positive, and will have to be reconciled. We either inflate it away or other, less desirable options occur. All the Fed printed money that's fed into Private Credit has salved a lot of ills in this Economy (pointedly, pay-as-you-go Consumer loans, etc etc) Bank lending is dead and needs rates to revert back if we're going to have a healthy, normal economy again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Not just us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 RECESSIONS: A recession indicator with a perfect track record has started flashing this week. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-indicator-perfect-track-record-030219790.html Meanwhile, Janet Yellen is still hopeful for a “soft landing” but most Americans might wonder, “A soft landing from what?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Not a recession. Just the patriarchy promoting the gender pay gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 I’m rich (again)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-august-cpi-report-interest-rate-d8c8c65a possibly bigger than the debate. Inflation 2.5 % “teeing up the fed for a rate cut”. I’ll take the WSJ take over unusual whales every time. More good news https://dnyuz.com/2024/09/11/prices-at-the-pump-fall-a-win-for-efforts-to-fight-inflation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 (edited) High inflation and unemployment. Can't wait for October so the next round of fed stimulus is released to a handful of corps Edited September 11 by Tommy Callahan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMB 8888 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: Yes this is such a dumb thing to say, but why didn’t anyone tell Donald to stop running up the defecit when he was in office? We know that Democrats do it, just like all politicians do. stop boot licking. Edited September 12 by GMB 8888 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 8 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: Yes Bump. And it's only going up. Bidens great reset agenda, and all these wars got expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Buy gold and ammo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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