JDHillFan Posted January 16 Posted January 16 39 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/mortgage-rates-top-7-for-first-time-since-mid-2024-024b30f8?mod=hp_lead_pos5 Trump Winning Already! You gave Karen Bass a free pass because she had only been in office a few weeks (according to you - 🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♀️🤦🏽). Can’t you be even handed and show the bad orange man some grace*? After all, he has not even been in office a few weeks. Like Bass. *grace - currently trendy with the Newsomes and Norah’s of the world.
rusty shackleford Posted March 13 Posted March 13 On 8/1/2024 at 2:23 PM, mjd1001 said: Not so much politics, but economics... Anyone noticing how similar the sp500 chart is in 2024 to 2007? -Early to mid 2007 many articles were written (you can still look them up) that the economy was great, recessions risks overblown. Early to mid 2024, same thing. -SP500 went up quite a bit early in the year, faltered slightly in the spring, before reaching all time highs in July. 2024, same thing. -During July/August earnings in 2007, a few subtle signs of slowing in earnings emerged, caused market to falter a tiny bit through Early August, but most 'economists' said nothing to worry about. 2024, same thing. -10 year treasury yields peaked in June 2007, starting to fall after that by quite a bit, especially through July/August. This year in 2024 they peaked in April/May, but held at a level close to that and are starting to fall quite a bit at the end of July going into August. -By summer of 2007, It started to look like Fed was going to cut rates in September. It turned out they cut rates more than expected in September (1/2 point). 2024, looking like rates will be cut in September, will we get a surprise 1/2 point cut? -The rest of the story in 2007 was markets rallied off the September rate cut for a bit back to the highs, before faltering at the end of the year, and the bottom dropping out early the following year. Will that be the same story in 2024? It's Eerily similar so far. Certainly we don't have the exact same conditions now as then. This is an election year. We don't have a huge number of houses that are going to have mortgages reset at higher rates like we did back then (but commercial real estate maybe?) Lots of govt spending still sloshing around now. They say history doesn't repeat, but it echoes....I'm just wondering how big of an echo we may have in the next 6-12 months. Indeed there are a lot of things that are ending up looking very similar. Following that sudden market drop and recovery last summer, markets really rallied. Helped by the Fed rate cut, then again with the optimism around the Trump victory. Of course, back in 2007/2008 there was a real catalyst to make the bubble pop and the bottom drop out; starting with the garbage MBS's and impact to the investment banks. So far in 2025, there hasn't been much tangible reasons to the market pullback; just uncertainty around tariffs and other policies. The market does hate uncertainty though, so hopefully concrete direction there will settle things a bit. Also, there has never been a time where a recession wasn't preceded by an inverted yield curve. The rate curve was inverted for over two years and snapped back to positive just a few months ago (depending on your choice of the 2yr/10yr or the 3mo/10yr view). Although, that doesn't spell certainty of a looming recession, it doesn't give a great feeling, all things considered. Oh, and those bad monthly jobs reports we saw all last year with constant downward revisions after the fact, with a lot being in the public sector, doesn't help.
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