Economy/economics

[Biden is Mentally Fit]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

Oh, so I guess things weren't so bad after all.

 

Hail Biden! Top 10!

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndorfman/2024/12/30/clinton-remains-stock-market-champ-trump-third-biden-ninth/

 

Ninth is no third but allow me to quote you in some of your earlier Biden excitement - not.bad.at.all

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

Got to be fair.

 

The right move by President Biden

 

(though I doubt it is for any reason other than Union support)

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

Mortgage rates spike up to 6.93%, highest since July.

Explanation: inflationary fears due to expected Trump policies.

[Big Blitz]

12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Mortgage rates spike up to 6.93%, highest since July.

Explanation: inflationary fears due to expected Trump policies.

 

Lol.  
 

This has been the trend the last 3 plus years but ok.  
 

 

Thanks Covidians.   
 

Inflation reduction act doing work lol lol.   

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Big Blitz said:

 

Lol.  
 

This has been the trend the last 3 plus years but ok.  
 

 

Thanks Covidians.   
 

Inflation reduction act doing work lol lol.   

So why have treasury yields spiked since the election?

 

 

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So why have treasury yields spiked since the election?

 

 

 

What were they in January of 2020
 

https://ycharts.com/indicators/5_year_treasury_rate

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

 

What were they in January of 2020
 

https://ycharts.com/indicators/5_year_treasury_rate

Someday someone will explain trends to you.

[Big Blitz]

Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

Someday someone will explain trends to you.

 

I’m not going to stress over an insignificant 3 month trend vs what they’ve done the last 4 years.  
 

Trump was already POTUS.  

 

That’s your problem.  
 

 

I told everyone this the last year plus.  
 

Suddenly Libs are going to care very deeply about the economy in 2025.  They will blame Trump for every single issue their Covid hysteria and 4 years of ***t Biden/Squad policies caused.  
 

He’s not even in office yet - mortgage rates keep climbing.  As they have since 2021 and this is already Trump’s fault.  

 

As I said during your lockdowns.  
 

This is going to be a decade plus of pain.   

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

He’s not even in office yet - mortgage rates keep climbing.  As they have since 2021 and this is already Trump’s fault

Buddy, he just took credit for the rise in the stock market after the election. And yes, that signals that the markets expect him to add fuel to the fire. And with that comes the risk of higher inflation, and in turn, higher interest rates.

You can't have it both ways.

I know he thinks you and yours are too dumb to figure that out, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt here.

[sherpa]

Please.

Interest rates advance for a few reasons:

1. Decreased confidence in the currency.

2. Depreciation of the currency, usually based on bad economic policy or simply printing more. (Recognize that?) Also called inflation.

3. A market determination that the economy is going to advance, creating more demand for money.

 

Some reasons are bad, 1 and 2, and some reasons are good-3.

 

If someone feels strongly about one thing or another, you can make a fortune betting on your view, so do it.

 

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Mortgage rates spike up to 6.93%, highest since July.

Explanation: inflationary fears due to expected Trump policies.

The bond market don't lie 

[OrangeBills]

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Mortgage rates spike up to 6.93%, highest since July.

Explanation: inflationary fears due to expected Trump policies.

 

Very Wrong

 

Inflationary cycles that get spinning last for about a decade.  The Biden administration has destroyed the economy through their inflationary spending, all the secondary effects such as Insurance, etc are now bludgeoning corporate and personal budgets that were already stretched very thin.

 

The bottom line is prices are up dramatically more than the Biden Administration has let on, like +40% vs. their absurd 20% number.  And the Economic data has been much worse, for instance we've been in an Industrial Recession for 2.5 years and the 60% of Americans have been in a Recession all that time as well, day-to-day spending buttressed by Private Equity driven pay-as-you-go lending that will come home to roost.

 

The Trump Presidency will not have time to see positive results, it will be a four-year battle (the Fed won't be able to further reduce IRs as Inflation re-accelerates).

 

What the Fed is saying from here is that, because prices are actually much higher than acknowledge, we actually need prices to go DOWN.  That means a Recession (hopefully not a Depression).

 

Inflation expectations are certainly not yet baking in "Trump policies"

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So why have treasury yields spiked since the election?

 

 

 

Wrong.  Treasury yields initially baked in Fed IR cuts before they did so in September, because Markets assumed the Fed would undergo a rapid rate-cutting cycle because we are really screwed otherwise...

 

However, Bond markets are their own animal, and the biggest danger was that the Fed lost the long-end of the curve, because smart Bond investors don't by the absurd Biden Admin corrupted BLS data that says prices are "up 20% in three years" and the Jobs numbers are fine (boosted monthly by Gov't hiring, but yet they tell us Federal Gov't employment is stagnant with 20 years ago, LOL).

 

So Treasury yields have been driving higher since Sept, around the first Fed Rate cut, because Bond investors realize that Inflationary cycles last more than 3 years, they are 10-year monsters, which is why you should never do what the idiotic Biden Administration has done to us

[Albwan]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Buddy, he just took credit for the rise in the stock market after the election. And yes, that signals that the markets expect him to add fuel to the fire. And with that comes the risk of higher inflation, and in turn, higher interest rates.

You can't have it both ways.

I know he thinks you and yours are too dumb to figure that out, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt here.

Hey brah you still mad