James Cook has less touches than Ray Davis over past 5 seasons

[Beck Water]

14 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Has Big Ray Ray been fumbling in camp? I only recall the one.

 

I would like to know this as well.

[freddyjj]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Here's the thing, in your assessment you assume that there will be 450 rushing attempts by our RBs.  Is that likely?  

 

The last two seasons our RBs posted 306 and 401 carries collectively.  

 

Here's the thing, people aren't realizing the extent to which Allen, not our RBs, carried our rushing game under Brady.  In the six games other than that outlier Dallas game, our RBs averaged 2.7 yards-per-carry which is abysmal.  We barely eked by the Chargers who were without Herbert and Allen, they're only offensive weapons worth a crap, NE with Mac Jones, and Miami.  

 

We had a lot of carries under Brady but very little accompanying production from our RBs.  But that's McD's forcing a square peg into a round hole in the modern passing oriented NFL era.  But it's understandable since we don't have a QB with a good arm.  (extreme sarcasm)  

 

It's difficult to envision us running our RBs that many times given the averages that they produced, namely poor.  

 

It's also difficult to imagine us running the ball using our RBs significantly more than at anytime during the McD era.  

Some good points made but I will choose to address this one.  I do believe that last year losing Harris and then having Murray fade away in 2nd half forced OBD to run Josh more.  Have to believe this is why they drafted Davis.  The new bundled formations, more use of 12 personnel and our larger WRs will  likely help the run game and McGovern is a huge upgrade over Morse in run blocking.  If they offload 40 to 50% of Josh's carries (especially on 3rd and short and at goal line), then it is not unrealistic that Bills RBs run the ball 450 times.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Some good points made but I will choose to address this one.  I do believe that last year losing Harris and then having Murray fade away in 2nd half forced OBD to run Josh more.  Have to believe this is why they drafted Davis.  The new bundled formations, more use of 12 personnel and our larger WRs will  likely help the run game and McGovern is a huge upgrade over Morse in run blocking.  If they offload 40 to 50% of Josh's carries (especially on 3rd and short and at goal line), then it is not unrealistic that Bills RBs run the ball 450 times.  

 

We'll see, but if that's true, then Davis should fare much better than Singletary or Moss.  

 

As to Harris, your teaching there.  In the games he played he averaged 4.1 ypc and 4 carries a game for about 16 yards. 

 

At the end of the day the elephant on the kitchen table is the fact that our rushing increased under Brady only because of Allen doubling his carries and rushing yardage.  ... While reducing his passing production. 

 

If that's wise then we may be in for a helluva year.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I would like to know this as well.

 

He has fumbled at least twice that I have seen reported. Brady was asked yesterday "apart from the fumbles..." and he started his answer with "yea but the fumbles are big he has to look after the ball." Fair to say I think they are drumming that home already.

[Matt_In_NH]

Most would have guessed this to be the case.  Cook had limited touches in college and as a rookie.  Davis made the rounds to various colleges getting lots of touches. Cook has limitation is pass pro and short yardage situations.  You need a ying to his yang.  Cook will get paid decently as a fa if he stays healthy and productive.  Hopefully not by the bills.  Davis is a different type of back. You need different types of backs.  Davis will likely be here longer than cook and if that happens there will be another new guy to put in the mix.  
 

 

Had not heard an about Davis fumbles. That is concerning.  

Edited August 1 by Matt_In_NH

[Mr. WEO]

we gotta decide which of these guys gets signed 2 years from now?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 7/30/2024 at 6:05 PM, freddyjj said:

I am happy to see that both these RBs are having strong camps so far.  I loved Cook at UGA and Davis last year at Kentucky.  My guess is there will be a 50/35/15 split of touches between Cook, Davis and Johnson.  As Bills under Brady were a top 5 run heavy offense, there will be many carries to split.

 

Which brings us to a possible conundrum next season.  Cook and Davis are the same age - 24 - and both will turn 25 this season, Cook in SEP and Davis in NOV.  Like most fans, i saw the Davis pick as a complement to Cook's game and that Davis could possibly replace Cook at end of 2025 season.  

 

Given that they are the same age, I researched how many touches each has had at the NCAA and NFL in the last 5 seasons.  Cook spent 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons at UGA and 2022 and 2023 with the Bills in the NFL.  In  those 5 years he has amassed 391 touches at the college level and 307 touches as a pro.  So a total of  698 touches for a combined 4487 yards in his last 6 seasons.  Davis spent 2019-2023 seasons all at the collegiate level and amassed 822 touches for 4262 yards.  So he comes in the NFL with over 2 times the amount of touches Cook had when drafted (391 in college for Cook).  

 

If the Bills limit touches as outlined above (50/35/15) and we assume there will be 450 rush attempts by RBs then Cook will have 225 per year and Davis 140 per year.  If Bills throw 100 passes to RBs and we use same split then add another 50 touches per year for Cook and 35 for Davis.  Cook will add 550 touches in next 2 seasons and Davis will have added another 350 touches.

 

So after 2025 season Cook's 7 year odometer will read around 1248 touches.  And Davis' 7 year odometer will read 1172 touches.  Pretty similar mileage.  They will both be 26 at end of 2025 season.  Would you re-sign Cook at that juncture?  While OBD would have 2 years left on Davis' deal, he will have accrued as much mileage as Cook.  I do believe the current game - where RBs platoon versus the Bell Cow days of early 2000s - means both these players could still give another 4 years of production to the Bills or whoever they sign with (in Cook's case if he opts for FA) after the 2025 season.

 

For now, I will just enjoy the show for the next 2 seasons.

I feel like people are sleeping on Ty Johnson. He has the advantage of knowing the playbook and has put up proven results in very limited action (37 touches, 10 first downs, 4.4 ypc, 9 yards per rec, 100% catch rate)  People automatically assume rookie RBs are going to pan out, but it’s not automatically a given. I love Davis and especially love his upside as a pass catcher, I am just trying to be a realist. Ty Johnson is a bowling ball out there and I never noticed any drop off in production when on the field. He also has good hands. I am hoping one of these guys can develop into a legit multipurpose back. Most likely will be Davis, but I will definitely keep my eye out on this TC battle. 

[T master]

On 7/30/2024 at 6:27 PM, HurlyBurly51 said:

Davis needs to stop putting the ball on the ground if he wants to see that type of distribution.  Don't think that McD hasn't noticed this camp.

 

Yah that is pretty important ! I have heard of Davis but never saw him play & if they picked up a fumbler then that's not as good a pick up unless he can change his ways & be coached to leave the fumbling back in college ...

[HurlyBurly51]

3 hours ago, T master said:

 

Yah that is pretty important ! I have heard of Davis but never saw him play & if they picked up a fumbler then that's not as good a pick up unless he can change his ways & be coached to leave the fumbling back in college ...

He actually wasn't a fumbler in college, but it's been noticed in camp.  I'm sure it's a point of emphasis and will be corrected, as we know how McD reacts to putting the ball on the ground.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[eball]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:12 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Has Big Ray Ray been fumbling in camp? I only recall the one.

 

He’s been fumbling all over and Bass can’t hit the broad side of a barn.

 

Please keep up.

 

[Sierra Foothills]

 

On 7/30/2024 at 6:37 PM, freddyjj said:

Wow didn’t realize that Davis never fumbled in college. 

https://thehuddle.com/2024/04/06/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-ray-davis-kentucky/

 

 

On 7/31/2024 at 4:56 AM, Jaybo71 said:

It might be semantics, but the article says he "never lost a fumble". He might have fumbled multiple times, but all were recovered by the offense.

 

On 8/1/2024 at 8:54 AM, T master said:

I have heard of Davis but never saw him play & if they picked up a fumbler then that's not as good a pick up unless he can change his ways & be coached to leave the fumbling back in college ...

 

On 8/2/2024 at 7:54 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

Ray Davis had 8 fumbles in 840 touches (carries + receptions) in college. That's 1 fumble every 105 touches.

 

That's very low.

 

Of those 8 fumbles 3 were recovered by the other team.