James Cook has less touches than Ray Davis over past 5 seasons

[freddyjj]

I am happy to see that both these RBs are having strong camps so far.  I loved Cook at UGA and Davis last year at Kentucky.  My guess is there will be a 50/35/15 split of touches between Cook, Davis and Johnson.  As Bills under Brady were a top 5 run heavy offense, there will be many carries to split.

 

Which brings us to a possible conundrum next season.  Cook and Davis are the same age - 24 - and both will turn 25 this season, Cook in SEP and Davis in NOV.  Like most fans, i saw the Davis pick as a complement to Cook's game and that Davis could possibly replace Cook at end of 2025 season.  

 

Given that they are the same age, I researched how many touches each has had at the NCAA and NFL in the last 5 seasons.  Cook spent 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons at UGA and 2022 and 2023 with the Bills in the NFL.  In  those 5 years he has amassed 391 touches at the college level and 307 touches as a pro.  So a total of  698 touches for a combined 4487 yards in his last 6 seasons.  Davis spent 2019-2023 seasons all at the collegiate level and amassed 822 touches for 4262 yards.  So he comes in the NFL with over 2 times the amount of touches Cook had when drafted (391 in college for Cook).  

 

If the Bills limit touches as outlined above (50/35/15) and we assume there will be 450 rush attempts by RBs then Cook will have 225 per year and Davis 140 per year.  If Bills throw 100 passes to RBs and we use same split then add another 50 touches per year for Cook and 35 for Davis.  Cook will add 550 touches in next 2 seasons and Davis will have added another 350 touches.

 

So after 2025 season Cook's 7 year odometer will read around 1248 touches.  And Davis' 7 year odometer will read 1172 touches.  Pretty similar mileage.  They will both be 26 at end of 2025 season.  Would you re-sign Cook at that juncture?  While OBD would have 2 years left on Davis' deal, he will have accrued as much mileage as Cook.  I do believe the current game - where RBs platoon versus the Bell Cow days of early 2000s - means both these players could still give another 4 years of production to the Bills or whoever they sign with (in Cook's case if he opts for FA) after the 2025 season.

 

For now, I will just enjoy the show for the next 2 seasons.

[HurlyBurly51]

Davis needs to stop putting the ball on the ground if he wants to see that type of distribution.  Don't think that McD hasn't noticed this camp.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Davis needs to stop putting the ball on the ground if he wants to see that type of distribution.  Don't think that McD hasn't noticed this camp.

I'll be hopefully watching Cook's pass catching improve (4 dropped TD's), and Davis can't fumble or he'll be in McD's doghouse. Touches will be dependent on these two minimizing mistakes.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Interesting stat but wildly irrelevant and as Hurly Burly points out he has to stop the fumbling.

 

A better use of stats that are relevant was how was his fumble ratio in college?

[Malazan]

It's also irrelevant because you don't keep RBs on their 2nd contract. Cook's will be up and he'll likely move on then Davis will still be fairly young and play out his contract and the next RB will come in

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

It's also irrelevant because you don't keep RBs on their 2nd contract. Cook's will be up and he'll likely move on then Davis will still be fairly young and play out his contract and the next RB will come in

I get your point.  In the long run Davis will be 28 when up for 2nd deal which is the witching hour for RBs.  
 

OBD likely envisions having both for 2 years and Davis for 26 and 27 seasons. 

[Breakout Squad]

2 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Davis needs to stop putting the ball on the ground if he wants to see that type of distribution.  Don't think that McD hasn't noticed this camp.

Yeah I was just reading about him fumbling. Turnovers are so costly especially in the modern NFL. Unless the tackler hits the ball with his helmet, the RB has to hold onto the ball. 
 

I think Cook has consistently improved. I hope he gets extended but it’s tough giving out 2nd contracts to RB’s. 

[DCofNC]

It will be interesting to watch how it plays out, Davis is a better prospect out of college as an actual RB and pass catcher, I still have no idea why Beane felt Cook was worth a 2nd, but I digress.  Assuming Davis keeps the ball off the ground, I expect him to overtake the lead role by mid-season.  Cook isn’t a physical runner and it appears that will be a premium.

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Interesting stat but wildly irrelevant and as Hurly Burly points out he has to stop the fumbling.

 

A better use of stats that are relevant was how was his fumble ratio in college?

Wow didn’t realize that Davis never fumbled in college. 

https://thehuddle.com/2024/04/06/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-ray-davis-kentucky/

 

[HurlyBurly51]

10 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Wow didn’t realize that Davis never fumbled in college. 

https://thehuddle.com/2024/04/06/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-ray-davis-kentucky/

 

Exactly, which makes this development in camp all the more surprising. 

[Goin Breakdown]

24 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Exactly, which makes this development in camp all the more surprising. 

I think it may have to do with a couple of things. 
- nerves-  such a weak excuse but ya never know

- expectations of the playing conditions. For example. It's been training camp low contact and they're not trying to bash anyone's face in the ground. Maybe you play a little

more sloppy when your not expecting the nasty hits. Idk. I've never played the game so what do I know. Just guessing. 
 

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Malazan said:

It's also irrelevant because you don't keep RBs on their 2nd contract. Cook's will be up and he'll likely move on then Davis will still be fairly young and play out his contract and the next RB will come in

 

I think @Malazan is exactly right.

 

You can't spend a lot of money on all positions.  So I think, as part of Beane's cap management strategy, he's decided to economize at RB since (1) we're a passing team, and (2) RBs don't age well anyway.  We'll have a revolving door of RBs on rookie contracts (sometimes augmented by cheap FAs) as long as Beane is the GM.  

 

Beane doesn't care about how many touches/wear-and-tear these guys have.  He cares about cost.   I seriously doubt that Cook gets a second contract with the Bills.  Or Davis.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Has Big Ray Ray been fumbling in camp? I only recall the one.

[Nephilim17]

The big stat will be dollars when Cook is a free agent. Unless they get him for a steal, let him go and ride out Davis for another three years. Then let him go and that's the RB cycle we should follow when we have to pay a franchise QB, top edge rushers (I'm assuming in the future) and WRs (ditto).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Beane freed up a bunch of cap space for 2025. Hopefully he doesn’t waste it on a long term deal for Cook. If Rousseau plays well they will need to pay him. Keepimg Cook with the tag like Giants did then letting him walk would be better move.

Edited July 31 by Ethan in Cleveland

[machine gun kelly]

The info is irrelevant and even in Cook’s favor.  The less mileage on Cook means he is still fresh and not worn out from all the miles.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Wow didn’t realize that Davis never fumbled in college. 

https://thehuddle.com/2024/04/06/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-ray-davis-kentucky/

 

I never fumbled in college either 

[BigPappy]

Once you hit the Pro level, collegiate stat's are pointless. They don't amass to anything. You might be able to infer trends based off of habits or whatever, but the Pro level is a completely different animal. It is far more competitive, with harder hits, and RB's get banged around far more in the NFL than they do in college. Because of that, estimating "milage" based off the number of carries alone is utterly pointless. If you are going to base it on milage, you need to factor in how hard those miles were. How many hard hits did he take, how many holes that he popped through where he got banged around a lot. All that said,  as @Malazan said, you don't keep RB's on their second contract, and I agree. The only time that statement isn't true is when they are the elite of the elite. They have to be the best of all RB's and it can't even be a close comparison.

 

Your post also makes a huge assumption seeing as you didn't mention it at all. Injuries. This team is notorious for sustaining significant injuries, and RB's take a ton of hits. Their is just no way to "guess" which player would be the player to keep at this point in their careers. There are just to many factors that come into play between now and then.

[Jaybo71]

10 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Wow didn’t realize that Davis never fumbled in college. 

https://thehuddle.com/2024/04/06/2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-ray-davis-kentucky/

 

It might be semantics, but the article says he "never lost a fumble". He might have fumbled multiple times, but all were recovered by the offense.

[PBF81]

17 hours ago, freddyjj said:

I am happy to see that both these RBs are having strong camps so far.  I loved Cook at UGA and Davis last year at Kentucky.  My guess is there will be a 50/35/15 split of touches between Cook, Davis and Johnson.  As Bills under Brady were a top 5 run heavy offense, there will be many carries to split.

 

Which brings us to a possible conundrum next season.  Cook and Davis are the same age - 24 - and both will turn 25 this season, Cook in SEP and Davis in NOV.  Like most fans, i saw the Davis pick as a complement to Cook's game and that Davis could possibly replace Cook at end of 2025 season.  

 

Given that they are the same age, I researched how many touches each has had at the NCAA and NFL in the last 5 seasons.  Cook spent 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons at UGA and 2022 and 2023 with the Bills in the NFL.  In  those 5 years he has amassed 391 touches at the college level and 307 touches as a pro.  So a total of  698 touches for a combined 4487 yards in his last 6 seasons.  Davis spent 2019-2023 seasons all at the collegiate level and amassed 822 touches for 4262 yards.  So he comes in the NFL with over 2 times the amount of touches Cook had when drafted (391 in college for Cook).  

 

If the Bills limit touches as outlined above (50/35/15) and we assume there will be 450 rush attempts by RBs then Cook will have 225 per year and Davis 140 per year.  If Bills throw 100 passes to RBs and we use same split then add another 50 touches per year for Cook and 35 for Davis.  Cook will add 550 touches in next 2 seasons and Davis will have added another 350 touches.

 

So after 2025 season Cook's 7 year odometer will read around 1248 touches.  And Davis' 7 year odometer will read 1172 touches.  Pretty similar mileage.  They will both be 26 at end of 2025 season.  Would you re-sign Cook at that juncture?  While OBD would have 2 years left on Davis' deal, he will have accrued as much mileage as Cook.  I do believe the current game - where RBs platoon versus the Bell Cow days of early 2000s - means both these players could still give another 4 years of production to the Bills or whoever they sign with (in Cook's case if he opts for FA) after the 2025 season.

 

For now, I will just enjoy the show for the next 2 seasons.

 

You might want to pump the brakes on this a bit.  

 

To start, both Moss and Singletary were more accomplished coming out of college.  

 

Secondly, Davis' posted only a few notable games, one of which was against 4-8 Ball St.  His huge game against was against Florida which also wasn't good at 5-7 and whose rushing D wasn't good.  

 

He only had more than 17 carries three times, once unimpressively vs. Miss St.  At his age he should have been a man amongst boys, but he wasn't, and his collegiate YPC average is less than Singletary's or Moss' were.  

 

Here's the thing, in your assessment you assume that there will be 450 rushing attempts by our RBs.  Is that likely?  

 

The last two seasons our RBs posted 306 and 401 carries collectively.  

 

Here's the thing, people aren't realizing the extent to which Allen, not our RBs, carried our rushing game under Brady.  In the six games other than that outlier Dallas game, our RBs averaged 2.7 yards-per-carry which is abysmal.  We barely eked by the Chargers who were without Herbert and Allen, they're only offensive weapons worth a crap, NE with Mac Jones, and Miami.  

 

We had a lot of carries under Brady but very little accompanying production from our RBs.  But that's McD's forcing a square peg into a round hole in the modern passing oriented NFL era.  But it's understandable since we don't have a QB with a good arm.  (extreme sarcasm)  

 

It's difficult to envision us running our RBs that many times given the averages that they produced, namely poor.  

 

It's also difficult to imagine us running the ball using our RBs significantly more than at anytime during the McD era.  

 

If the success of the Brady era under the McD Way is to succeed, presumably it will be with Allen running the ball more than he ever has.  

 

There isn't much difference, if anything positive even, between Davis and Singletary/Moss with whom McD didn't do anything with.  

 

Davis also played two seasons at Temple and another at Vandy, hardly great schools for proving how good he might be in the NFL.  After that huge Florida game in which he had 26 carries for 280 yards in a blowout of the Gators, his YPC average was a mere 4.9 in his other 12 games which is incredibly unimpressive.  

 

So we'll see, but it's a lot of firsts that need to happen here for your vision to even approach unfolding.  

 

 

Edited July 31 by PBF81