Training Camp 7/30

[Fan in San Diego]

20 hours ago, FLFan said:

Do we expect the Bills/Josh to throw less?  Are we saying that without Diggs and Davis the Bills are going to become a 50/50 run pass team?  I do not expect the Bills to suddenly become the Tennessee Titans.  If not, the targets WiLL go somewhere.  The real question is what percentage of those  targets will be caught and with what production.  Color me not worried about replacing Davis’ mediocre production on the targets and snap percentage he received.  It would be an upset if we were not better at that position in total.  As for Diggs, we can do much better than his late season disinterested production.  

Exactly, Diggs and Gabe had a high drop percentage. The newer receivers have a better catch percentage. We should be better not worse. MVS has the dropsies, so we can cut him IMHO.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, syhuang said:

 

 

 

Justin Simmons is still available......

[chris heff]

3 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I highlighted bernard more for the fact that he didnt compete in the MLB competition cause of injury and he won it still.  So Bishop missing extended time and still winning wouldn't be unprecedented. 

 

I dont think the injury erases all chances he starts for reasons above but it does significant lower his chances.  Seems to be asking a lot for him to be a rookie in a competition (Torrence) and be hurt (Bernard) and then still win.  If it was one then fine but both working out is a lot which i think is your overall point.  

To be clear we’re saying IR after he makes the team right?  If he goes on IR before cut down to 53 i believe hes out for the season.  So we will see the return of the Reid Ferguson BBQ in the parking lot?

There is a rule change this year where they can designate two players to return to the 53, “they are designated to return during the roster cutdown to 53 players after training camp. Teams can designate up to two such players to return.”

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

that's a real drag, sucks for the kid. 

 

 

Combine results for Burgess:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terrell-burgess/32004255-5210-2577-4960-9b8e33e83c2a

 

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Justin Simmons is still available......

Makes one wonder if ? Just possibly ... Bills HAVE been talking to him ?

His price must be much too high for most, and or he wants a certain role.

Not sure anyone is a good walk on for McDermott's insidious defense schemes. Seems to take a while to learn for a fair percentage of new to the Bills players and rookies as well ?

[HiMark]

On 7/30/2024 at 4:02 PM, Beck Water said:

 

It's actually 241 combined targets, so 200 understates it.  May have missed Hamler, Valdez-Scantling, and/or Claypool, or at least one of 'em.

 

I understand your irritation, but while we may hope and believe that between whoever makes the team we have the ability to replace those targets, until someone or several someones step up in actual games, the questions will be there.

Targets come from qb's.  I don't think we will be missing targets, or needing to make up targets.  Make up catches, make up YAC's, make up TD's: those come from receivers.

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Makes one wonder if ? Just possibly ... Bills HAVE been talking to him ?

His price must be much too high for most, and or he wants a certain role.

Not sure anyone is a good walk on for McDermott's insidious defense schemes. Seems to take a while to learn for a fair percentage of new to the Bills players and rookies as well ?

 

Simmons is likely in the Micah Hyde/accomplished vet position of intentionally NOT signing anywhere before the end of camp. The way guaranteed money just evaporates for guys of a certain age, it's no wonder that each offseason we see this impressive list of unsigned vet UFAs playing injury/market chicken with teams who have expressed interest. Goes both ways, I'm sure, for teams and vets, this time of year.

 

We don't know Hyde will ever choose to play football again, but we can assume there is a number in place from the Bills, at the conclusion of camp, that would get him to suit up for one more season. Especially if there is also a hole in the safety depth chart due to injury. Simmons has probably already had similar talks with teams.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, HiMark said:

Targets come from qb's.  I don't think we will be missing targets, or needing to make up targets.  Make up catches, make up YAC's, make up TD's: those come from receivers.

 

I understand your point and it has validity.  A counterpoint is, while you're correct that targets come from QBs, targets require receivers who get open on time thus allowing the QB to target them.  So receivers do impact targets.

 

A possible example of this is, with Josh Allen, if he doesn't see a receiver he can target, he will run.  We know that the offense switched from a predominantly pass offense under Dorsey, to a predominantly rush offense under Brady.   We know that part of that was an increase in Allen running: Allen averaged 4.8 rush attempts per game the first 10 weeks of the season under Dorsey as OC, and 9.1 rush attempts per game.  That's an extra 4.3 rush attempts per game or 73 rush attempts over the course of a season.  

 

How many of those increased rush attempts by Allen reflect coverage situations where no one was open in the correct time window of the reads?  That's harder to quantitate from publicly available data, but hopefully you see my point.  Targets are impacted by coverage, and how well the receivers release and run routes and make themselves available to be targeted.

[Beck Water]

 

[HiMark]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I understand your point and it has validity.  A counterpoint is, while you're correct that targets come from QBs, targets require receivers who get open on time thus allowing the QB to target them.  So receivers do impact targets.

 

A possible example of this is, with Josh Allen, if he doesn't see a receiver he can target, he will run.  We know that the offense switched from a predominantly pass offense under Dorsey, to a predominantly rush offense under Brady.   We know that part of that was an increase in Allen running: Allen averaged 4.8 rush attempts per game the first 10 weeks of the season under Dorsey as OC, and 9.1 rush attempts per game.  That's an extra 4.3 rush attempts per game or 73 rush attempts over the course of a season.  

 

How many of those increased rush attempts by Allen reflect coverage situations where no one was open in the correct time window of the reads?  That's harder to quantitate from publicly available data, but hopefully you see my point.  Targets are impacted by coverage, and how well the receivers release and run routes and make themselves available to be targeted.

I totally see your point.  I just kinda hate targets as a stat, kinda like rb carries is meaningless to me.  WR's love the stat, as do FF players, analytics guys, and WRs' agents.  I'd rather see the catch rate vs those targets, even knowing that the best wrs should ptobably not have the best rates bc of need (see Shakir's great rate compared to Diggs, doesn't make him a better wr...yet)

 

As for Allen running, he was doing plenty of that already, and probably not enough of it in Dorsey's 10 games.  Spreading the ball around will be a gift to Allen if it lets us keep the sticks moving. 

Incidentally, I predict a similar dip in allen's runs/game in the first half this year, and a return to usual league-stomping form in the second half, so that might not have been all about Dorsey.  But Diggs getting so many targets? Definately about Dorsey, IMO.