The Bills "Don't have positions" - Joe Brady

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea there seems to be a high degree of disagreement among the various metrics sites. 

You should see my shocked face.

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was on the ESPN thing the other day that had Samuel as only the 136th best separator in the league last year.

 

I guess different people measure separation differently.   According to Cover 1:

 

Curtis Samuel, 5’11” 195 pounds

Signature Stat: Tied for 13th among all WRs in Avg Separation at 3.3 yards.

 

The 3.3 figure may come from NextGenStats.  Here's how they ranked our current and recent receivers for the 2023 season:

 

Kincaid   3.8

Shakir     3.5

Samuel   3.3

Diggs      2.8

Davis      2.8

 

Knox, Hollins and MVS didn't have enough targets in 2023 to qualify for the NextGenStats ranking.  In 2022:

 

Knox:      4.3

Hollins:   3.0

MVS:       2.8

 

According to NextGenStats, neither Diggs nor Davis - both with below average separation - gave Josh many easy completions last year.   Maybe this is part of the reason they're both gone.  

 

www.cover1.net/free-agent-profile-wide-receiver-curtis-samuel/

nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving/2023/REG/all#yards

 

Edited July 28 by hondo in seattle

[syhuang]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm

 

I don't fully understand what the ratings are based on. But for "Open" he is 136th.

ESPN explains this “Open” score in their site and it’s not “separation”:

 

——————————————————-

Open Score: How is it possible to assess untargeted routes?

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing.

——————————————————-

It’s their estimation on the likelihood the receiver is able to make the catch 0.2 seconds before the quarterback release the ball if the ball is to this receiver. But as bold above, the models do not know QB’s progression of the play.

Basically quarterback ability is very important to this Open score. Some of the obvious flaws in this model I can think of is that, it’s possible (bad) quarterbacks missed the open receivers and when the quarterback makes the throw, the actual open window is gone. Or the quarterback passes the ball too prematurely. Or it’s simply the quarterback makes the passes in his first couple reads before the route is developed for other receivers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 28 by syhuang

[hondo in seattle]

43 minutes ago, syhuang said:

ESPN explains this “Open” score in their site and it’s not “separation”:

 

——————————————————-

Open Score: How is it possible to assess untargeted routes?

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing.

——————————————————-

It’s their estimation on the likelihood the receiver is able to make the catch 0.2 seconds before the quarterback release the ball if the ball is to this receiver. But as bold above, the models do not know QB’s progression of the play.

Basically quarterback ability is very important to this Open score. Some of the obvious flaws in this model I can think of is that, it’s possible (bad) quarterbacks missed the open receivers and when the quarterback makes the throw, the actual open window is gone. Or the quarterback passes the ball too prematurely. Or it’s simply the quarterback makes the passes in his first couple reads before the route is developed for other receivers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, the "open" designation is a little wonky because it measures who's open 0.2 seconds before the QB releases the ball.

 

Maybe the X receiver is just breaking open at that point and is thus scored "open."

 

Maybe the Y receiver was already open 0.5 seconds ago as per the design of the play, but now the DB has closed on him so he's scored "not open."  

 

Maybe the Z receiver is running a more time consuming route and hasn't become open yet but would have if given another 0.2 seconds.  

 

[4merper4mer]

The more Joe Brady speaks the more I think thread consolidation is in order.  Perhaps a title of “OC’s Claptrap”.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, syhuang said:

ESPN explains this “Open” score in their site and it’s not “separation”:

 

——————————————————-

Open Score: How is it possible to assess untargeted routes?

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing.

——————————————————-

It’s their estimation on the likelihood the receiver is able to make the catch 0.2 seconds before the quarterback release the ball if the ball is to this receiver. But as bold above, the models do not know QB’s progression of the play.

Basically quarterback ability is very important to this Open score. Some of the obvious flaws in this model I can think of is that, it’s possible (bad) quarterbacks missed the open receivers and when the quarterback makes the throw, the actual open window is gone. Or the quarterback passes the ball too prematurely. Or it’s simply the quarterback makes the passes in his first couple reads before the route is developed for other receivers.

 

 

Agree that stat does seem to be more a combination of receiver and Quarterback on any given play than a pure receiver stat. 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I guess different people measure separation differently.   According to Cover 1:

 

Curtis Samuel, 5’11” 195 pounds

Signature Stat: Tied for 13th among all WRs in Avg Separation at 3.3 yards.

 

The 3.3 figure may come from NextGenStats.  Here's how they ranked our current and recent receivers for the 2023 season:

 

Kincaid   3.8

Shakir     3.5

Samuel   3.3

Diggs      2.8

Davis      2.8

 

Knox, Hollins and MVS didn't have enough targets in 2023 to qualify for the NextGenStats ranking.  In 2022:

 

Knox:      4.3

Hollins:   3.0

MVS:       2.8

 

According to NextGenStats, neither Diggs nor Davis - both with below average separation - gave Josh many easy completions last year.   Maybe this is part of the reason they're both gone.  

 

www.cover1.net/free-agent-profile-wide-receiver-curtis-samuel/

nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving/2023/REG/all#yards

 

Knox is the best separator on the team?

[hondo in seattle]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Knox is the best separator on the team?

 

It does seem hard to believe.  Maybe they've done a good job of scheming him open?  Or maybe he's been neglected by defenses?  Or good at finding soft spots in zones?  

 

There's no great way to quantify separation but this is how NextGenStats measures it:

 

Average Separation (SEP)

The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

It does seem hard to believe.  Maybe they've done a good job of scheming him open?  Or maybe he's been neglected by defenses?  Or good at finding soft spots in zones?  

 

There's no great way to quantify separation but this is how NextGenStats measures it:

 

Average Separation (SEP)

The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.

 

It just goes to show the metric is basically useless IMO. Receivers inline or in the slot are going to have an inherent advantage, defensive coverage affects it, offensive scheme, etc. It's too context driven to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

Anyways pure yards of separation is somewhat overrated IMO. A pass catcher's job on a play is to create leverage that gives the QB a throwing window. There is no way to measure that on a computer chip like NextGen tries to do.

[The Frankish Reich]

On 7/25/2024 at 8:53 AM, Big Turk said:

 

 

Sounds like the "Total Football" concept made famous by the great teams in the Netherlands in the mid 70s and 80s under Johan Cruyff and then FC Barcelona...

 

Players don't have a position and are pretty much free to go wherever they want and their teammates are expected to see, react and cover them.  Basically it required great spatial awareness to be able to see openings and both exploit them on offense and cover them on defense.

 

Will be interesting to see what Brady's concepts look like with this transferred to the NFL.

It's the new world.

Look at basketball. What is Nikola Jokic? He brings the ball up the court, leads the team in assists but also in rebounds. A point Center?

Look at baseball. What is Mookie Betts? A fantastic player. Put him in RF and he'll win a gold glove. Or at 2B. (Maybe not at SS long term though.) That's where scouting has gone in baseball - the idea is that a good defensive player is a good defensive player wherever you put him on the diamond.

Or look at NFL defenses. What is Matt Milano? In some ways, a great safety or what some old college teams called a Rover. The best vision/sense of the field who whose talents would be wasted if trapped in a tradition weak side LB role. Or peak Von Miller for that matter.

I like finally having a coach who wants to lead innovation.

[eball]

20 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

They certainly don’t have a backup QB…

 

A problem that has been ignored for years. Years I tell ya!!!

 

[MarlinTheMagician]

On 7/25/2024 at 10:55 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Lol...I was paraphrasing. Madden said it about having two QBs, meaning you don't have a star.

Bills don't have a star WR but you are correct, if designed and executed well the offense can be very difficult to defend. 

You chose an interesting word though. Match-up. At some point the players still need to win one on one match ups. Diggs did that with aplomb. There are multiple guys if positioned well that should be able to win matchups. Shakir should beat most average slot corners. Kincaid and Knox can beat even the best linebackers and probably most safeties. Cook can beat any coverage.  Samuel is a work in progress. 

What I am a little worried about is who is the guy that makes a play when Josh scrambles. That was commonly Diggs and Davis. Josh found them often. Will be interesting to see who he finds when the play breaks down. 

I think match-ups are the key.  Ours will be better than last year.  Diggs either quit on the team or had declining talent due to age - he was simply no good in the second half last year.  And even if he goes off in Houston, it does not mean he would have excelled here.  You may have seen the video clip of Josh the other day addressing exactly what you are talking about - scramble drills need to be a winning play for us.  I believe we will not only be better, but much better than we were last year when a play breaks down.  It is where Coleman's size - the ability to box out and to go up and get it - should really shine, especially with the spatial awareness that comes from his basketball background.  And I think Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid will all run the scramble drill extremely well in that they are smart players thet will work to open space.  And I think they will do it much better than Diggs and Davis did it last year even if we count on nothing from Coleman (but Coleman will give us a lot on the scramble, IMHO).