Big Blitz Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/18/2024 at 8:19 PM, Backintheday544 said: Expand Annnnnnnnnnnd they’ve abandoned ship on this “firewall” garbage RIP
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 4:50 AM, Big Blitz said: Annnnnnnnnnnd they’ve abandoned ship on this “firewall” garbage RIP Expand He’s not saying it’s wrong he’s saying he’s abandoning it because people like you who don’t understand what a weights poll is bd an unweighted poll are making inaccurate conclusions and it could affect him later: On 10/19/2024 at 9:39 AM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: You have no analysis. You cherry picked a segment of data to prove your point. Your clear pattern ignores everything pre 1980. Have a good day. Expand Al it’s been over 25 hours still waiting on the 70 percent calculation that you said was so easy to see from the bar chart. Please and thanks 1
SCBills Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/19/2024 at 8:03 PM, Big Blitz said: Expand They’re beginning to hate black men as much as they do white men. Black women are starting to flex on them as their matriarchal patience is wearing thin.. 1
ChiGoose Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 4:29 AM, Big Blitz said: Expand MAGA has discovered the stump speech. What will they uncover next, phone banks? Door knockers?
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 11:23 AM, Backintheday544 said: He’s not saying it’s wrong he’s saying he’s abandoning it because people like you who don’t understand what a weights poll is bd an unweighted poll are making inaccurate conclusions and it could affect him later: Al it’s been over 25 hours still waiting on the 70 percent calculation that you said was so easy to see from the bar chart. Please and thanks Expand Calculation? It's a bar graph. Not my fault you can't interpret data.
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 3:54 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Calculation? It's a bar graph. Not my fault you can't interpret data. Expand Please highlight where you get the 70 percent. here is mine. Look at 1980 and onward. The trend is D fav, D Fav, R fav. It’s plain to see in a visualization of a bar graph, which is what bar graphs are good for, visualizing data and trends. Now please enlighten us on how you think there is a 70 percent change the polls will favor D based on the bar graph posted. On 10/20/2024 at 2:44 PM, ChiGoose said: MAGA has discovered the stump speech. What will they uncover next, phone banks? Door knockers? Expand Imagine if she went out and talked about a dead golfers dick size:
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 4:02 PM, Backintheday544 said: Please highlight where you get the 70 percent. here is mine. Look at 1980 and onward. The trend is D fav, D Fav, R fav. It’s plain to see in a visualization of a bar graph, which is what bar graphs are good for, visualizing data and trends. Now please enlighten us on how you think there is a 70 percent change the polls will favor D based on the bar graph posted. Imagine if she went out and talked about a dead golfers dick size: Expand Since 2000 overpollling favored dems by nearly 70 percent. If you can't see that, don't know what to tell you. Furthermore the giant jump in overpolling in the last election would tell you its more than likely this election would lean overpolling by dems again. You just see a pattern that's most likely coincidence. 1
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 4:02 PM, Backintheday544 said: Please highlight where you get the 70 percent. here is mine. Look at 1980 and onward. The trend is D fav, D Fav, R fav. It’s plain to see in a visualization of a bar graph, which is what bar graphs are good for, visualizing data and trends. Now please enlighten us on how you think there is a 70 percent change the polls will favor D based on the bar graph posted. Imagine if she went out and talked about a dead golfers dick size: Expand It's been an hour, just waiting for you to come back and admit you don't know how graphs work.
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 (edited) On 10/20/2024 at 5:20 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: It's been an hour, just waiting for you to come back and admit you don't know how graphs work. Expand Still don’t get you. If you just look at 2000 to 2020 it’s 4 times dem vs 2 times republicans so 66 percent. Not 70. Plus an analysis like that just looks at a single space in time. It doesn’t factor in that Dems were favored the last 2. So if we were to say look at the last 2 and then this one, I’d say we’re due for the Republican to be over sampled. Your selection of 2020-2024 is a smaller data set than 1980-2024. Plus wow, give me an hour and I have you 25+. Plus I’m watching a Bills game. I know it’s not as exciting as your entertainment of watching a elderly man talk about a dead man’s penis size but it’s still entertaining. Edited October 20, 2024 by Backintheday544
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 5:41 PM, Backintheday544 said: Still don’t get you. If you just look at 2000 to 2020 it’s 4 times dem vs 2 times republicans so 66 percent. Not 70. Plus an analysis like that just looks at a single space in time. It doesn’t factor in that Dems were favored the last 2. So if we were to say look at the last 2 and then this one, I’d say we’re due for the Republican to be over sampled. Your selection of 2020-2024 is a smaller data set than 1980-2024. Plus wow, give me an hour and I have you 25+. Plus I’m watching a Bills game. I know it’s not as exciting as your entertainment of watching a elderly man talk about a dead man’s penis size but it’s still entertaining. Expand 66 vs 70? Splitting hairs. Give me a break. Look at you big brain, can't go one post without mentioning Trump.
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 (edited) On 10/20/2024 at 5:54 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: 66 vs 70? Splitting hairs. Give me a break. Look at you big brain, can't go one post without mentioning Trump. Expand This is a discussion about polling for a presidential election. Ok ok maybe in your mind Trump shouldn’t be talked about since he’s so old and his dementia is showing that it’ll be Vance as President sooner rather than later if Trump wins. Thats fine, you’re correct. At the end of the day, your splitting hairs is saying you want a 66 percent probability to happen (sorry 70 percent is too generous of a round up). When the last 2 draws were in your favor. Thats like flipping a coin 2 times and its heads and saying you know for sure its heads again the third time. Id also say your basic analysis is flawed since people are involved. Here pollsters poll and adjust. The pattern of adjusting shows it takes 2 polls for pollsters to finally over adjust towards Republicans. We’re on our two times over polling Dems so now a the time for the pollsters to over adjust in favor of the Dems. You may be newer here but maybe ask Irv or Bman how that 2022 red wave went the pollsters called for. Edited October 20, 2024 by Backintheday544 1
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:05 PM, Backintheday544 said: This is a discussion about polling for a presidential election. Ok ok maybe in your mind Trump shouldn’t be talked about since he’s so old and his dementia is showing that it’ll be Vance as President sooner rather than later if Trump wins. Thats fine, you’re correct. At the end of the day, your splitting hairs is saying you want a 66 percent probability to happen (sorry 70 percent is too generous of a round up). When the last 2 draws were in your favor. Thats like flipping a coin 2 times and its heads and saying you know for sure its heads again the third time. Id also say your basic analysis is flawed since people are involved. Here pollsters poll and adjust. The pattern of adjusting shows it takes 2 polls for pollsters to finally over adjust towards Republicans. We’re on our two times over polling Dems so now a the time for the pollsters to over adjust in favor of the Dems. You may be newer here but maybe ask Irv or Bman how that 2022 red wave went the pollsters called for. Expand Seems like your having a nice day. Liberals are always so angry. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:08 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Seems like your having a nice day. Liberals are always so angry. Expand On 10/20/2024 at 6:08 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Seems like your having a nice day. Liberals are always so angry. Expand My liberal job has me watching the game on a liberal Caribbean island so I’m good! let’s go back to your math skills. To calculate the probability of an event happening three times in a row with a 66% chance each time, we multiply the probabilities of each individual event occurring. If the probability of a single event happening is 66%, or 0.66, then the probability of it happening three times in a row is: P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287 So, the probability of it happening three times in a row is approximately 28.7%. So if you’re just looking at bar graphs the odds are actually 28.7 percent, not 70 percent. #learnmathyouconservative
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:18 PM, Backintheday544 said: My liberal job has me watching the game on a liberal Caribbean island so I’m good! let’s go back to your math skills. To calculate the probability of an event happening three times in a row with a 66% chance each time, we multiply the probabilities of each individual event occurring. If the probability of a single event happening is 66%, or 0.66, then the probability of it happening three times in a row is: P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287 So, the probability of it happening three times in a row is approximately 28.7%. So if you’re just looking at bar graphs the odds are actually 28.7 percent, not 70 percent. #learnmathyouconservative Expand So you're trying to say there is going to be at least a 4.0 swing in polling error toward Republicans when there hasn't been that big of a move since 1980? Bold move cotton. On 10/20/2024 at 6:18 PM, Backintheday544 said: My liberal job has me watching the game on a liberal Caribbean island so I’m good! let’s go back to your math skills. To calculate the probability of an event happening three times in a row with a 66% chance each time, we multiply the probabilities of each individual event occurring. If the probability of a single event happening is 66%, or 0.66, then the probability of it happening three times in a row is: P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287P=0.66×0.66×0.66=0.287 So, the probability of it happening three times in a row is approximately 28.7%. So if you’re just looking at bar graphs the odds are actually 28.7 percent, not 70 percent. #learnmathyouconservative Expand Tell you what, let's bet. If the data shows overpolling for this election again in favor of dems you will leave this board forever. If it's in the Republicans favor I'll leave. Deal?
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 (edited) On 10/20/2024 at 6:22 PM, AlBUNDY4TDS said: So you're trying to say there is going to be at least a 4.0 swing in polling error toward Republicans when there hasn't been that big of a move since 1980? Bold move cotton. Tell you what, let's bet. If the data shows overpolling for this election again in favor of dems you will leave this board forever. If it's in the Republicans favor I'll leave. Deal? Expand 2000 wants a look at that +4 thars not a fair deal since you have the snowflake board. If there’s a Dem over polling this election, I’ll leave this board. If there’s a Republican over polling this election, you’ll leave this board and the snowflake board. Edited October 20, 2024 by Backintheday544
JDHillFan Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:18 PM, Backintheday544 said: My liberal job has me watching the game on a liberal Caribbean island so I’m good! Expand Think about what you are doing while watching the game in the Caribbean. Are you? own goal
Backintheday544 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:29 PM, Biden is Mentally Fit said: Think about what you are doing while watching the game in the Caribbean. Are you? own goal Expand not when it’s so common place it’s just another Sunday 1
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 On 10/20/2024 at 6:28 PM, Backintheday544 said: 2000 wants a look at that +4 thars not a fair deal since you have the snowflake board. If there’s a Dem over polling this election, I’ll leave this board. If there’s a Republican over polling this election, you’ll leave this board and the snowflake board. Expand I'm referring to the last election. And yeah that's what I thought.
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