BananaB Posted July 24 Posted July 24 11 minutes ago, FireChans said: It proves that Allen is overrated or McD is underrated. Probably a little of both. Dude if it wasn’t for Allen McD would be unemployed. 1 Quote
BillsFan130 Posted July 24 Posted July 24 1 minute ago, FireChans said: He’s got great numbers in the fourth Q AND he doesn’t fall victim to McD bumbling the lead away nearly as much as you thought an hour ago. Point proven. There's no point proven at all lol. Bills lost 3 games last year when they had a lead with under 2 to go. That has got to be close to an NFL record lol Quote
FireChans Posted July 24 Posted July 24 (edited) 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Just so we are clear Losing a game where you were ahead in the 4th is statistically unlikely. You are taking the absence of a statistically unlikely event in McDermott's favor Come from behind victories in the 4th quarter are also statistically unlikely. Here you are taking the absence of a statistically unlikely event to Allen's detriment Do you see why you shouldn't try to put these two things in a ratio together One day when I’m not on a beach chair I’ll crunch the numbers down and go through the gauntlet for Patty, Burrow, Lamar etc. on how many times their defense lost them a lead in the fourth, how many times they overcame it vs not, and how many times they failed to take a lead in the fourth. And then I’ll ratio them all up. I think the numbers will be shocking to you. Maybe I’ll do it later. 7 minutes ago, BananaB said: Dude if it wasn’t for Allen McD would be unemployed. you accept your BS remark was wrong, right? Or do you commonly say bullschitt to 100% correct facts? 5 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said: There's no point proven at all lol. Bills lost 3 games last year when they had a lead with under 2 to go. That has got to be close to an NFL record lol I’ll make the point one last time for you and @GoBills808 If I polled TBD today and asked: Which number is higher: Losses where Josh Allen failed to score to take the lead in the 4th Q since 2020 Losses where the defense failed to hold a lead in the 4th Q since 2020 IMO, the vote would be OVERWHELMING for option 2. Like probably 10:1. You may have voted option 2 yourself. Now you of course know thats 100% not true. If that’s not overrating, idk what is Edited July 24 by FireChans 2 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted July 24 Posted July 24 5 minutes ago, FireChans said: One day when I’m not on a beach chair I’ll crunch the numbers down and go through the gauntlet for Patty, Burrow, Lamar etc. on how many times their defense lost them a lead in the fourth, how many times they overcame it vs not, and how many times they failed to take a lead in the fourth. And then I’ll ratio them all up. I think the numbers will be shocking to you. Maybe I’ll do it later. you accept your BS remark was wrong, right? Or do you commonly say bullschitt to 100% correct facts? That would be great Somehow I don't think I'll be surprised but I'm open to it Quote
HappyDays Posted July 24 Posted July 24 (edited) Joe Marino's take for anyone who cares: He spends most of the episode talking about Josh Allen. For a large portion in the middle he specifically discusses the Bills' success with Allen compared to the Chiefs' success with Mahomes. I'm admittedly biased because he echoes everything I've ever said on this topic, but it's amazing how just straightforward and obvious some of his points are when you hear them out loud. Like you can't reasonably disagree with anything he says. Edited July 24 by HappyDays 3 Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted July 24 Posted July 24 On 7/19/2024 at 5:58 AM, njbuff said: I bet this anonymous executive is unemployed. 😁 He's probably the guy who drafted Mayfield or Darnold over Allen and quite possibly the guy who drafted Zach Wilson 2nd overall 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted July 24 Posted July 24 44 minutes ago, FireChans said: One day when I’m not on a beach chair I’ll crunch the numbers down and go through the gauntlet for Patty, Burrow, Lamar etc. on how many times their defense lost them a lead in the fourth, how many times they overcame it vs not, and how many times they failed to take a lead in the fourth. And then I’ll ratio them all up. I think the numbers will be shocking to you. Maybe I’ll do it later. you accept your BS remark was wrong, right? Or do you commonly say bullschitt to 100% correct facts? I’ll make the point one last time for you and @GoBills808 If I polled TBD today and asked: Which number is higher: Losses where Josh Allen failed to score to take the lead in the 4th Q since 2020 Losses where the defense failed to hold a lead in the 4th Q since 2020 IMO, the vote would be OVERWHELMING for option 2. Like probably 10:1. You may have voted option 2 yourself. Now you of course know thats 100% not true. If that’s not overrating, idk what is I would have voted option1 fwiw Because as I have said repeatedly you are statistically much more likely to lose when you trail in the 4th Quote
FireChans Posted July 24 Posted July 24 13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I would have voted option1 fwiw Because as I have said repeatedly you are statistically much more likely to lose when you trail in the 4th You may have, sure. I don’t think TBD at large would. Quote
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted July 24 Posted July 24 59 minutes ago, FireChans said: One day when I’m not on a beach chair I’ll crunch the numbers down and go through the gauntlet for Patty, Burrow, Lamar etc. on how many times their defense lost them a lead in the fourth, how many times they overcame it vs not, and how many times they failed to take a lead in the fourth. And then I’ll ratio them all up. I think the numbers will be shocking to you. Maybe I’ll do it later. you accept your BS remark was wrong, right? Or do you commonly say bullschitt to 100% correct facts? I’ll make the point one last time for you and @GoBills808 If I polled TBD today and asked: Which number is higher: Losses where Josh Allen failed to score to take the lead in the 4th Q since 2020 Losses where the defense failed to hold a lead in the 4th Q since 2020 IMO, the vote would be OVERWHELMING for option 2. Like probably 10:1. You may have voted option 2 yourself. Now you of course know thats 100% not true. If that’s not overrating, idk what is I'm actually interested in how you would count some of these games. Does the 2023 loss to the Jets count as a game our DEF choked because they allowed 2 scoring drives in the 4th Q? Josh and the offense did score a game tying FG on a drive that started with <2 minutes left. Pretty easily Josh's worst game of the season, but a game in which the DEF gave up the lead late and the OFF scored on a 'clutch' drive to tie it late. What about the 2021 loss to the Titans? Strictly speaking the offense failed to score to take the lead late in the 4th Q. However, our DEF did not force a stop after the 1st Q and allowed 6 straight scoring drives. 2022 loss to the Vikings or 2021 loss to the Bucs? Both sides of the ball had clutch and anti-clutch moments in the 4th/OT. FWIW if we're looking at clear cut examples of 1 side of the ball choking the game I'd have this list DEF blew it: 2020: Cardinals 2021: Chiefs (playoffs) 2023: Patriots, Eagles OFF blew it: 2021: Jaguars, Patriots (extreme weather) 2022: Dolphins (extreme weather) The rest of our close losses have joint responsibility in the 4th Q or involve 1 side of the ball playing great for 3+ quarters but not being able to close the game out. Offense has the '21 loss to Titans and '23 (playoffs) loss to Chiefs. Defense has the '23 loss to Broncos Quote
FireChans Posted July 24 Posted July 24 (edited) 24 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said: I'm actually interested in how you would count some of these games. Does the 2023 loss to the Jets count as a game our DEF choked because they allowed 2 scoring drives in the 4th Q? Josh and the offense did score a game tying FG on a drive that started with <2 minutes left. Pretty easily Josh's worst game of the season, but a game in which the DEF gave up the lead late and the OFF scored on a 'clutch' drive to tie it late. What about the 2021 loss to the Titans? Strictly speaking the offense failed to score to take the lead late in the 4th Q. However, our DEF did not force a stop after the 1st Q and allowed 6 straight scoring drives. 2022 loss to the Vikings or 2021 loss to the Bucs? Both sides of the ball had clutch and anti-clutch moments in the 4th/OT. FWIW if we're looking at clear cut examples of 1 side of the ball choking the game I'd have this list DEF blew it: 2020: Cardinals 2021: Chiefs (playoffs) 2023: Patriots, Eagles OFF blew it: 2021: Jaguars, Patriots (extreme weather) 2022: Dolphins (extreme weather) The rest of our close losses have joint responsibility in the 4th Q or involve 1 side of the ball playing great for 3+ quarters but not being able to close the game out. Offense has the '21 loss to Titans and '23 (playoffs) loss to Chiefs. Defense has the '23 loss to Broncos I somehow cannot find my original post on the subject, but my methodology was: Losses where the Bills entered the 4th trailing within 1 score and did not take the lead - Josh loss Losses where the Bills were in the 4th Q with a lead - McD loss the Jets game wouldn’t count under either criteria. There aren’t many losses so it’s kinda quick and easy to go through. Games where we got our doors blown off don’t count. Edited July 24 by FireChans Quote
BullBuchanan Posted July 24 Posted July 24 3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: Under normal circumstances your argument would be true. But we literally left only 13 seconds on the clock. Not even Brady, Mahomes, Elway or Manning would be-grudge Josh for that. I guess there is no multiverse where McD and his pathetic playoff defense is ever held accountable. And neither do I, which is I specifically mentioned that On 7/21/2024 at 3:24 PM, BullBuchanan said: This happens not just at the end of games, but at the end of halves. While 13 seconds was definitely not his fault, an earlier example in that game had him giving KC the ball back with nearly 40 seconds left in the half 6 hours ago, Einstein said: Buchanan appears to have a short memory. He must have already forgotten Brady scoring a TD on 2nd down with 2 minutes to go in the Super Bowl against the Seahawks. hOw dArE hE nOt BlEeD tHe ClOcK That's the game where after he did that, the seahawks promptly marched down to the NE 1 and were a Marshawn Lynch handoff away from being SB Champs, right? Do you have any other of these examples that disprove your own point? It'll save me a lot of time having to pull up data to support my argument. Quote
nedboy7 Posted July 24 Posted July 24 2 hours ago, HappyDays said: Joe Marino's take for anyone who cares: He spends most of the episode talking about Josh Allen. For a large portion in the middle he specifically discusses the Bills' success with Allen compared to the Chiefs' success with Mahomes. I'm admittedly biased because he echoes everything I've ever said on this topic, but it's amazing how just straightforward and obvious some of his points are when you hear them out loud. Like you can't reasonably disagree with anything he says. he’s extremely logical. Probably why certain people don’t like him. Quote
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted July 24 Posted July 24 28 minutes ago, FireChans said: I somehow cannot find my original post on the subject, but my methodology was: Losses where the Bills entered the 4th trailing within 1 score and did not take the lead - Josh loss Losses where the Bills were in the 4th Q with a lead - McD loss the Jets game wouldn’t count under either criteria. There aren’t many losses so it’s kinda quick and easy to go through. Games where we got our doors blown off don’t count. Did you look at wins with the same criteria as well? For example the Giants game this year saw our offense score TWO go-ahead TDs in the 4th Q. While our DEF allowed a lead-losing FG drive in the 4th Q. I'm cherry picking here to illustrate how deceiving it can be to only look at the 4th Q. 1 Quote
FireChans Posted July 24 Posted July 24 13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said: Did you look at wins with the same criteria as well? For example the Giants game this year saw our offense score TWO go-ahead TDs in the 4th Q. While our DEF allowed a lead-losing FG drive in the 4th Q. I'm cherry picking here to illustrate how deceiving it can be to only look at the 4th Q. I only looked at losses because the argument at the time was that McD causes a lot of our losses in the 4th. Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted July 24 Posted July 24 I don’t quite understand why @FireChans is choosing to die on this hill. As @GoBills808 pointed out, it is statistically unlikely to win a game you trail in the 4th quarter. Likewise, statistically unlikely to lose a game you lead in the 4the quarter. Breaking news, Bills have few wins when they trail to start the 4th quarter! Fire Chans logic= Allen overrated Breaking now as well, Bills have few losses when they lead entering the 4th quarter! Fire Chans logic= McD underrated 1 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted July 24 Posted July 24 4 hours ago, FireChans said: It’s 100% true. I can post you the data if you’d like. umm, yes. you haven’t given us the actual facts on this. And now you say you can’t seem to find them. not that it matters because we all know teams fail to win more often when they trail. but you mocked @BillsFan130 for not proving data when they actually did so it would be nice if you could actually give us the hard numbers. 3 Quote
SaulGoodman Posted July 24 Posted July 24 On 7/22/2024 at 10:29 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: key words “if things were equal” Thought it was about results. Things have been pretty equal the last few years. Not sure that will be the case again this year though. Quote
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted July 24 Posted July 24 Feels like selective criticism…I’m sure he misses things pre snap but every qb does. He attempts some throws into traffic and yea some are reckless but a majority of the time his receivers just didn’t have the separation Quote
FireChans Posted July 24 Posted July 24 (edited) 10 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I don’t quite understand why @FireChans is choosing to die on this hill. As @GoBills808 pointed out, it is statistically unlikely to win a game you trail in the 4th quarter. Likewise, statistically unlikely to lose a game you lead in the 4the quarter. Breaking news, Bills have few wins when they trail to start the 4th quarter! Fire Chans logic= Allen overrated Breaking now as well, Bills have few losses when they lead entering the 4th quarter! Fire Chans logic= McD underrated 14 hours ago, FireChans said: I’ll make the point one last time for you and @GoBills808 If I polled TBD today and asked: Which number is higher: Losses where Josh Allen failed to score to take the lead in the 4th Q since 2020 Losses where the defense failed to hold a lead in the 4th Q since 2020 IMO, the vote would be OVERWHELMING for option 2. Like probably 10:1. You may have voted option 2 yourself. Now you of course know thats 100% not true. If that’s not overrating, idk what is Tried to make it as simple and easy to understand as possible for you. Lol. I do love the idea of “dying on the hill” of reality. I know it’s hard for some to accept! Edited July 24 by FireChans Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted July 24 Posted July 24 55 minutes ago, FireChans said: Tried to make it as simple and easy to understand as possible for you. Lol. I do love the idea of “dying on the hill” of reality. I know it’s hard for some to accept! great detective work by you Fire Chans. Go ahead and provide the data to support your claims. You can’t require it from others while giving yourself a pass. Quote
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