Anonymous NFL Exec: "Josh Allen is one of the more overrated players in the NFL"

[LeGOATski]

13 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Everyone has leaks in their game, but Mahomes' leaks aren't costing him hardware.

Nether do Josh's. He's money in the playoffs.

 

It's other issues that are costing them in the playoffs.

[BullBuchanan]

Which team is that? The Bills have been my #1 team for nearly 40 years. Just because I give you hard truths you don't like doesn't make it trolling sweetie.

 

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re talking to a dedicated troll that roots for another team. 

 

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Which team is that? The Bills have been my #1 team for nearly 40 years. Just because I give you hard truths you don't like doesn't make it trolling sweetie.

 

 

The hard truth is that you and many others give way ro much credit to the QB when it comes to winning football games. A lot of time you forget that there is an offense, defense, ST and coaching staff that all contribute. 

[BullBuchanan]

3 hours ago, DrW said:

 

Have you ever considered that different individuals have different conditions under which they can perform optimally? Some people can work/learn 24/7, and the more time they devote to it, the better the outcome. However, others need a break from time to time to be in their optimal shape when required. There is a reason why European companies require their employees to take vacations.

My wife and I were lucky and have now both tenured faculty positions at a research university ranked around #100 nationwide. We are both successful in our research resulting in publications and grants. My wife is working 24/7, and she would not have it any other way. When our two kids were small, I was actually often charged to take them on a weekend hiking trip so that Mama could work. 

On the other hand, my optimal schedule is quite different. Since my PhD thesis 35 years ago, I have been working all day Monday to Friday; however, I need the weekends to recuperate and do something completely different, such as kayaking, birdwatching, or taking the kids for a hike. There had been occasions, mostly due to deadlines, where I had to also write proposals on the weekend; they were not my best attempts.

 

In this context, there are a few questions I would like to ask you. I should emphasize that I do not expect any answer.

1. Do you think that your own job performance is optimal?

2. If not, would a salary increase improve it?

3. At your work, do you supervise other employees? Do you have to grade their performance? If yes, are you more strict or lenient?

4. Do you have any specific suggestions where you think that Josh should put more effort in?

The problem is Josh is not performing optimally under his current program. He's plateaued over the last 3 seasons and is further from a Super Bowl today than he was then. Unless he gets extremely lucky where both Mahomes and Burrow are out in the same year, he's unlikely to win a Super Bowl with his current level of play - especially as he's getting older and his physical gifts start to decline.

1) My own job performance is far from optimal. I'm currently quiet quitting or "resting and vesting". However, I have performed optimally in the past, but it took 16-18 hours a day of dedication to reach that level. You can't do that forever, which is why it's important to capitalize on the prime years of your mid to late twenties when you have the combination of skills/experience and stamina to make massive strides in short windows. Even these things considered, I would say I'm within the top 5% of my profession and would have been closer to the top 1% when performing optimally.

2)Yes, salary would have a massive impact, but so would prestige and the possibility of accolades. I'm not in a position any longer to become "the face of the franchise" but that is a massive motivator to a lot of people. Some folks chase MVPs, others chase 30 under 30, Nobel Prizes, Industry awards, magazine covers etc.

3) Yes. I consider myself a coach, rather than a "boss". I'm ultimately responsible for an outcome, so I will guide people on how we get to that outcome, but I take their perspectives into account and generally let them try to manage their own processes for how they get there. While we're in the process of building trust, I'll keep tabs on the process and direct if I see issues, again, letting them find their own way unless asked directly. I praise privately and publicly processes that are geared towards finding desirable outcomes, whether or not they do, as we can't control the result of a process, only the planning, execution and analysis of the process itself. If you did everything right, but something still fails due to things outside your control (and you anticipated the ramifications of potential events outside your control), then all you can do is try again. Most of the time though, this doesn't happen. There are rarely events that cannot be planned for, it's just we choose to deprioritize extremely unlikely ones that would take enormous time and expense to mitigate, so we implicitly (or sometimes even explicitly) accept the risk.

4) Yes. I think there are several areas that jump out to me where Allen can improve his game that give his team a significantly enhanced opportunity to win. The most important one is that he needs to learn how to be a game manager 90% of the time, because that's what is takes to win consistently in the NFL. We all know he's one of the best football heroes to ever strap on a pair of cleats, but he's far from one of the best Quarterbacks, because he doesn't manage the game. Guys like Brady, later career Elway, mid-later career Peyton Manning, and Mahomes after his first couple years, figured out that it's easier to win playing boring football, than exciting football, though it's a massive edge to have that in your back pocket if you need it.

Specifically to Allen, he needs to not only be less aggressive with his throws when the situation doesn't call for it, he needs to make smarter reads. Those reads not only need to factor in the risk of a bad immediate result, such as an interception, but the reverse implied odds of what happens even if he's successful. Most times when we've blamed a defensive collapse for losing or nearly losing a game, Josh Allen had an opportunity to be the last one to touch the ball. Instead he chooses aggressive plays too often that result in scores or turnovers. When he scores as soon as possible, he then gives his opponent an opportunity to do the same.

This happens not just at the end of games, but at the end of halves. While 13 seconds was definitely not his fault, an earlier example in that game had him giving KC the ball back with nearly 40 seconds left in the half, during which Mahomes promptly drove the field and put his team in position for a FG (that was missed). In the game against the Giants last year it's 2:30 left in the first half on 1st down and instead of throwing to a wide open Murray underneath, he chooses Knox with three defenders between him and the ball, which results in a turnover. Against KC in the playoffs, with 1:50 left in the game on 2nd and 9, he locks into Shakir in the end zone instead of a wide open Diggs on the left side of the field, and he gets bumped into by Dawkins/Chris Jones and drills in the dirt. Then on 3rd and 9, he locks onto the deep threat in the endzone instead of seeing a wide open Shakir to the other side that would have given him, at worst, a 4th and 1 and a chance to muscle for a 1st with the downside being an easier FG. Instead he has to throw it away, Bass misses and we blame him for the loss. Of course, we forget that even had he completed the TD to Shakir or Bass made the FG, we'd be giving Mahomes 1:42 left to drive the field, which he statistically was more likely to do than not.

These aren't isolated examples. They happen all the time, have happened his entire career, and aren't just limited to scoring too quickly or throwing risky balls. It also involves not locking into reads, seeing the potential for an open underneath guy with YAC opportunity instead of a flatfooted perimeter WR, building momentum to keep the defense on their toes and tired, and there's more, but that should be enough. I'm fully prepared for this to be met with a "nuh-uh" or for others to rathole on some minutiae here, but hopefully this shares some of my perspective on where I think he needs to get better if he wants a realistic chance at multiple Lombardi's.

I'm rooting for the kid, and I always have been even if I didn't like the draft pick when it happened. I want him to succeed. I just hope I don't want it more than he does.

 

Edited July 21 by BullBuchanan

[ProcessTruster]

love this .. now lets go win it this year .. no expectations, lets go win it now

[Kwai San]

On 7/19/2024 at 7:22 AM, Gugny said:

I am firmly in the “Josh Allen is a top 3 QB” camp. 
 

But I also believe that he could be closer to the best in the NFL if he could keep his head on for an entire season. 
 

I think he lacks maturity and mental strength. My only knocks on him since day one. 
 

That level of maturity and mental toughness is what separates Mahomes from Allen. 
 

Mahomes matured more quickly than Allen. 
 

Hence the rings. 

 

All things considered Gugs, Mahomes had MUCH more support and MUCH better coaching Offensively than JA has EVER had.  Hence, seemingly he "matured" sooner.  Put JA in that offense with Reid and that Defense with Spags.....yeah he would have a few rings too.  IMHO thats a no brainer.  Coaching makes a HUGE difference, that and Pat was mooe polished that JA and had the benefit of sitting for a season watching how it was done.  I believe.  Correct me if I am wrong on that last statement.

[Billy Claude]

15 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Specifically to Allen, he needs to not only be less aggressive with his throws when the situation doesn't call for it, he needs to make smarter reads. Those reads not only need to factor in the risk of a bad immediate result, such as an interception, but the reverse implied odds of what happens even if he's successful.

 

 

Allen definitely needs to be more aware of game situations.

 

Consider the Bills-Dolphins playoff game in 2022.  On the first four possessions, the defense has intercepted Skylar Thompson once and held the Dolphins to 52 yards and two first downs.  The Bills have scored on their first three possessions and are moving in 10 yard chunks in their 4th.  Allen then decides to lob it 50 yards downfield.  Xavien Howard intercepts and returns it 50 yards to give the Dolphins a short field and hope.

 

There is zero chance that Patrick Mahomes would do something like that.  In fact, I doubt any QB would do something that stupid in that situation except for maybe a rookie Zach Wilson.

 

The Bills defense then holds the Dolphins to field goals after short fields from the interception and a long punt return.  With 50 seconds left in the half, Allen throws an interception that is returned 30 yards to the Bills 18.   Miami finally gets a TD and the score is 20-17 at the half even though the defense has given up just six first downs and under 100 yards.

 

Allen fumbles on the Bills' first offensive play of the 2nd half.  It is returned for a TD and the Dolphins take the lead. That's three turnovers in about a quarter of playing time leading to 17 Dolphin points. Allen tends to get flustered.  When he makes a mistake there is often more coming until he can settle himself down.

 

Given that, the statement that Allen is one of the most overrated player is ridiculous.   I think he is underrated in the poll - I feel Burrows is rated higher because they probably ignore all the sacks that Burrows takes as well as Allen's elite running ability.

 

Edited July 22 by Billy Claude

[JP51]

Josh will deal with this just like Kelly did until he wins one... (which never happened so he still deals with it) But Elway, Peyton etc... went thru the same... 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

It was probably one of our own to motivate him. Just like I’m sure the Bills leaked the tweets before the draft so josh would fall to us.

[SaulGoodman]

On 7/19/2024 at 12:30 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Even if all those things are true, at the end of the day it is about results. Allen has proven both on the stat sheet and win/loss column that he is undoubtably a top 3 QB in the league. You don't play at a top 3 QB level for four straight seasons by accident. 

 

Underdeveloped at the line of scrimmage. Umm okay, we know he isn't Brady or Peyton at the line. 

If it’s about results, why do so many here rate Allen higher than Mahomes?

[BullBuchanan]

21 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Allen has 221 total touchdowns in his career and he just turned 28.. Dan Fouts had 254 in his entire career. Josh is a lock for the Hall of Fame.  Since Dan literally has even worse playoff stats than Josh and the same amount of Super Bowl rings and appearances. 

Lol at passing stats comparisons from 50 years ago.

When Fouts retired he was 2nd all-time in passing. Allen is currently 97th and 78th in passing TDs. Of course he has a great chance to finish in the top 10, but I never said he wouldn't be a Hall of Famer at the end of his career, just that he definitely isn't one if he never plays another snap.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, SaulGoodman said:

If it’s about results, why do so many here rate Allen higher than Mahomes?

Maybe that NFL exec reads TBD comments. 

[Einstein]

20 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Against KC in the playoffs, with 1:50 left in the game on 2nd and 9, he locks into Shakir in the end zone instead of a wide open Diggs on the left side of the field, and he gets bumped into by Dawkins/Chris Jones and drills in the dirt. 

 

 

Horse penis.

 

That was the right read by Josh and i’ll defend this hill forever.

 

Allen had Shakir, wide open, in the endzone, for the go-head score. You take that EVERY TIME. If Allen isn’t hit by Chris Jones, it’s a Touchdown.

 

Those who wanted him to hit Diggs underneath and then bleed the clock and then score are living in a fantasy land where bad snaps, fumbles, tipped passes, etc don’t happen.

 

For example: What if Allen hits Diggs instead of Shakir and then on the next play we fumble the ball to KC. Was foregoing the TD still the right call? 

 

How about if Allen hits Diggs and then two plays later the ball is tipped at the line and KC intercepts it. Was it still smart to ignore the open guy in the endzone?

 

Allen made the right read. He went for the jugular with a minute and change remaining, and with a guy wide open in the endzone and I hope he continue to make that same read every freaking time.

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Horse penis.

 

That was the right read by Josh and i’ll defend this hill forever.

 

Allen had Shakir, wide open, in the endzone, for the go-head score. You take that EVERY TIME. If Allen isn’t hit by Chris Jones, it’s a Touchdown.

 

Those who wanted him to hit Diggs underneath and then bleed the clock and then score are living in a fantasy land where bad snaps, fumbles, tipped passes, etc don’t happen.

 

For example: What if Allen hits Diggs instead of Shakir and then on the next play we fumble the ball to KC. Was foregoing the TD still the right call? 

 

How about if Allen hits Diggs and then two plays later the ball is tipped at the line and KC intercepts it. Was it still smart to ignore the open guy in the endzone?

 

Allen made the right read. He went for the jugular with a minute and change remaining, and with a guy wide open in the endzone and I hope he continue to make that same read every freaking time.

How about if Allen hits Diggs and we bleed the clock like everyone apparently wants to, then proceed to miss the tying FG...like what actually happened😂😂

 

Arguing for passing up the TD there is just not a thing

[LarryMadman]

On 7/19/2024 at 10:28 AM, FireChans said:

Josh Allen doesn’t come in second in total TO’s last year and I think he wins MVP going away tbh. 

Championing that Allen has way too many turnovers and that is why the Bills lose and he sucks is bunk.

 

List of QBs TOs, int and fumbles only not lost fumbles.

 

Allen 18/7

Jackson 7/11

Wilson 8/10

Goff 12/6

Purdy 11/6

Love 11/9

Mahomes 14/5

Mayfield 10/8

Tua 14/13

Hurts 15/9

Prescott 9/4

Lawrence 14/12

 

In the end they all have the same relative amount of turnovers, not one sticks out as more harmful to their team that anyone else. It's not like Josh or anyone had 40 turnovers andthe rest were at 15, throw a blanket over all of them as they are all the same, TDs on the other hand is a totally different story as a TD is a TD whereas a TO doesn't necessarily mean point against.

 

Sick of everyone unjustly trashing Josh, he's the best QB in the league and all some here want to do is pick him apart about everything daily! We're so lucky to have and would have won something by now with some better coaches.  

[Cray51]

47 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Horse penis.

 

That was the right read by Josh and i’ll defend this hill forever.

 

Allen had Shakir, wide open, in the endzone, for the go-head score. You take that EVERY TIME. If Allen isn’t hit by Chris Jones, it’s a Touchdown.

 

Those who wanted him to hit Diggs underneath and then bleed the clock and then score are living in a fantasy land where bad snaps, fumbles, tipped passes, etc don’t happen.

 

For example: What if Allen hits Diggs instead of Shakir and then on the next play we fumble the ball to KC. Was foregoing the TD still the right call? 

 

How about if Allen hits Diggs and then two plays later the ball is tipped at the line and KC intercepts it. Was it still smart to ignore the open guy in the endzone?

 

Allen made the right read. He went for the jugular with a minute and change remaining, and with a guy wide open in the endzone and I hope he continue to make that same read every freaking time.

100% agree.  Allen made the right read, and his line let him down (with that said, Chris Jones is an absolute monster of a defensive force.  I wish we had him)

[FireChans]

54 minutes ago, LarryMadman said:

Championing that Allen has way too many turnovers and that is why the Bills lose and he sucks is bunk.

 

List of QBs TOs, int and fumbles only not lost fumbles.

 

Allen 18/7

Jackson 7/11

Wilson 8/10

Goff 12/6

Purdy 11/6

Love 11/9

Mahomes 14/5

Mayfield 10/8

Tua 14/13

Hurts 15/9

Prescott 9/4

Lawrence 14/12

 

In the end they all have the same relative amount of turnovers, not one sticks out as more harmful to their team that anyone else. It's not like Josh or anyone had 40 turnovers andthe rest were at 15, throw a blanket over all of them as they are all the same, TDs on the other hand is a totally different story as a TD is a TD whereas a TO doesn't necessarily mean point against.

 

Sick of everyone unjustly trashing Josh, he's the best QB in the league and all some here want to do is pick him apart about everything daily! We're so lucky to have and would have won something by now with some better coaches.  

Huh?

 

Like it or not, turnovers matter. He can still be awesome and be a top 2 QB. 
 

No one says Mahomes’ TO’s are good, they are bad, just like Josh’s are bad. There’s no reason to pretend otherwise lol

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

On 7/19/2024 at 2:40 AM, Mike in Horseheads said:

I don't put much value in anonymous comments.

100% this….this guy doesn’t want his name attached to this hottest of hot takes. So much so that he made this comment from the surface of the sun. It’s a fire starter comment probably from Nick Wrights only NFL contact. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Cray51 said:

Allen made the right read, and his line let him down

 

I don't blame Dawkins at all. Chris Jones lined up 1v1 in the 4Q against 95% of offensive linemen is an immediate advantage to the defense. I just have no clue how that 1v1 matchup was allowed to happen. I think all other 31 coaching staffs wouldn't let their opponent's best pass rusher end up 1v1 on the most critical play of the game. Ours did. So here we are having to pretend that turning down TDs is somehow an arguable decision.

[Fan in San Diego]

So has Mahome's never locked onto a WR and missed someone wide open?