Buffalo_Stampede Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 58 minutes ago, Sweats said: Now, someone throw the stats out here where opposing teams have converted on our D........that, is what actually matters when it comes to 3rd down stats. Bills defense statistically is great during the regular season. They fall off in the playoffs. From 2019 Bills defense drops from 3rd to 18th in 3rd down % going from regular season to playoffs. Compare that to KC who goes from 11th in the regular season to 6th. Cincinnati goes from 24th to 5th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sweats said: Now, someone throw the stats out here where opposing teams have converted on our D........that, is what actually matters when it comes to 3rd down stats. Since 2020 the Bills have ranked 19th, 1st, 6th, and 18th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed...in other words, far better than most people think. Average ranking over 4 years would be 11th. People who honestly think the Bills are awful on 3rd down simply don't watch much football around the NFL...there are far worse teams than us at allowing 3rd down conversions. And the other 3 years McDermott has been here in 2017-2019 they were 11th, 9th and 9th, which would actually improve their average rating, so they have been above average with McD overall. So if you thought they were going to be terrible, sorry to disappoint you...they aren't. Can't get statmuse to show me defensive ones so I went to another site that only does year by year, so I can't get the aggregate total without having to add all the teams up and compare them which is honestly way too much work. Edited July 17 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 (edited) 4 hours ago, Shaw66 said: That's an amazing stat, and the team's 4th down percentage is pretty healthy, too. I'm not a total stats geek, so I won't - don't even know how to - do the work to figure this out, but I don't think your conclusion why the INTs is almost irrelevant. I think if one does the statistical analysis, they'd find that third-down conversion isn't as important as a turnover. A turnover instantly reduces your chance of scoring to near zero and, because of the significant change in field position, a turnover also increases the chances of the opponent scoring as compared to following a punt. A third-down conversion doesn't increase the Bills' chances of scoring by nearly as much as a turnover improves the other team's chances. Turnovers cause big changes in the probability of winning, and third down conversions do not correlate to winning in the same way. That's why pretty much all coaches and commentators talk about the giveaway-takeaway differential and virtually no one tracks third-down conversion differential. . What's the difference between teams that punt 5 more times a game than the Bills do and Allen turning the ball over 1.5 times a game more? I'd take my chances with that Allen turning the ball over versus punting more. statistically Allen is the most efficient player in the history of the NFL over the past 4 season from an analytics perspective over any 4 year period. Edited July 17 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 6 hours ago, Big Turk said: People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt. Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime. I couldn't agree more with the second bolded statement above. Enjoy this time Bills brethren...it was 21 years between Kelly and Josh. Who knows when we'll get to experience this again. And just for reference, regarding the punts. Over the last 4 years (2020-2023), the Bills have the fewest punts/punts per game. Here is the top 10: Team Total punts Punts/game Bills 189 2.78 Chiefs 204 3.00 Packers 208 3.06 Cowboys 227 3.30 Lions 233 3.42 Eagles 235 3.46 49ers 238 3.50 Cards 241 3.54 Raiders 242 3.56 Colts 245 3.60 Quite a drop-off after the top three...really highlights what a generational QB (Josh, Pat, Aaron) can do for a team. 5 hours ago, mushypeaches said: I think that this statistic more than most explains why the Bills are so fun to watch and that Josh Allen is an elite QB On 3rd down, you never feel like the Bills can't convert. Josh Allen ALWAYS gives them a chance Contrast that to the previous soul-sucking years, especially when you needed LeSean McCoy to break 27 tackles on a screen pass on 3rd & 12 to maybe get close enough for a measurement. To the bolded...yes, the's what it used to feel like with Kelly and the 90s team. It's so nice to finally feel that again with Josh. 2 hours ago, Logic said: They say a quarterback makes his money on third downs and in the 4th quarter. Based on the Bills' 3rd down percentage numbers and Josh Allen's performance in the clutch, he is arguably the best quarterback in the game today. At the very worst -- because I respect the "championships and League MVP awards" argument -- Allen is second to Mahomes. But the more I see as time goes on, the more I feel like I'm no longer sure that Patrick Mahomes is actually better than Josh Allen. We have an all-timer at quarterback, folks. Yes, at this point it is a total toss-up for me with Pat and Josh---they are basically on the exact same level, Mahomes just has had more post-season success. I also have no problem with people putting Pat first because of that. But, Josh is ahead in many stats and is the bigger running threat (and has probably had to do more on his own at times). To put it plainly, if there was an entire league redraft and you had the second pick, you'd be happy as a clam. I don't care which guy I get as along as its one of those two. And then I'll build my team around them appropriately. No one would be crying with that second pick that they're missing out on Mahomes. They would just gladly take Josh second (that is if Josh didn't get picked first, which could happen depending on the team).. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 12 minutes ago, folz said: I couldn't agree more with the second bolded statement above. Enjoy this time Bills brethren...it was 21 years between Kelly and Josh. Who knows when we'll get to experience this again. And just for reference, regarding the punts. Over the last 4 years (2020-2023), the Bills have the fewest punts/punts per game. Here is the top 10: Team Total punts Punts/game Bills 189 2.78 Chiefs 204 3.00 Packers 208 3.06 Cowboys 227 3.30 Lions 233 3.42 Eagles 235 3.46 49ers 238 3.50 Cards 241 3.54 Raiders 242 3.56 Colts 245 3.60 Quite a drop-off after the top three...really highlights what a generational QB (Josh, Pat, Aaron) can do for a team. To the bolded...yes, the's what it used to feel like with Kelly and the 90s team. It's so nice to finally feel that again with Josh. Yes, at this point it is a total toss-up for me with Pat and Josh---they are basically on the exact same level, Mahomes just has had more post-season success. I also have no problem with people putting Pat first because of that. But, Josh is ahead in many stats and is the bigger running threat (and has probably had to do more on his own at times). To put it plainly, if there was an entire league redraft and you had the second pick, you'd be happy as a clam. I don't care which guy I get as along as its one of those two. And then I'll build my team around them appropriately. No one would be crying with that second pick that they're missing out on Mahomes. They would just gladly take Josh second (that is if Josh didn't get picked first, which could happen depending on the team).. Allen also doesn't have a defense that steps up in the postseason like Mahomes and Burrow have...the Bills D goes in the other direction while Allen plays his Super Man role. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 (edited) What is crazy to me is that anytime Josh and the Bills are facing 3rd and 10+ I am as confident that they will get the first down as I am if it was 3rd and 1. Even something like 3rd and 18...I still feel like there is still a good chance he is going to convert it with his arm or legs, or get close enough to where he will get on a 4th down conversion attempt. I can honestly say I have never ever felt that any time in my lifetime while either playing football or watching football. But Josh Allen is just that dude where I feel like long or short makes no difference, he is just as likely to convert it. There is even this little part of me that almost feels more confident on 3rd and long vs something like 3rd and 3 because it is almost like you know you might see a little more Superman energy from Allen on the tougher challenge rather than the short one that may just be some short throw or run that doesn't work. Prior to Allen, 3rd and double digits always felt like a low probability play until he came along and somehow almost normalized it to where now I just have this confidence he will make the play as likely as he would at any other shorter distance. Just one of the many reasons Josh Allen has already supplanted Barry Sanders as my all time favorite player to watch play the game. As an avid sports fan as well, I will go as far to say that Allen is my favorite athlete to watch play at this point. Not only can he just do things no one else can, he often makes them look easy and often does things that just make you marvel at what just happened. He is just a blast to watch, and the fact he is an awesome person and human being as well just makes it that much better. Edited July 17 by Alphadawg7 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 14 minutes ago, Big Turk said: What's the difference between teams that punt 5 more times a game than the Bills do and Allen turning the ball over 1.5 times a game more? I'd take my chances with that Allen turning the ball over versus punting more. statistically Allen is the most efficient player in the history of the NFL over the past 4 season from an analytics perspective over any 4 year period. What's the difference? The difference is you don't know what you're talking about. Last season, the Bills punted 49 times. The Jets led the league with 99. A team that punted five times a game more than the Bills would have had 134 punts, so your example is patently absurd. But even if you're going to talk about a reasonable number, like a team punting ONE more time a game than the Bills, which would mean a little better than the median, and put Allen at one half turnover a game more than the median, the difference is that in half the games, the Bills are giving up about 40 yards in field position. That's like the defense giving up more than 10% more yards for the game. I found the number a couple of weeks ago: On average, a turnover means your team is giving up four points. Two extra first downs a game doesn't get you four points, not even close. Field position is one of the most fundamental keys to success in football, and the lower the total points scored, the more important it becomes. The NFL is in an era where scoring is declining, and that makes turnovers more important. However, I'm interested in your last statement. How do you know that Allen has been more efficient over the past four seasons than any other player over any four-year period? That's an interesting stat. How's efficiency measured? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 4 hours ago, Shaw66 said: It's because stats like this don't correlate with winning. As much as we hate to admit it, when Josh turns the ball over, it hurts his team a lot. What's amazing to me is the difference between the regular season and the playoffs. I get carried away in these discussions, because I'm sure that Josh's regular-season turnovers hurt the team. However, it's hard to complain too much about it, because the Bills make the playoffs every season, and in the playoffs, Josh has 21 career playoff TD passes and 4 INTs. That number alone seems to prove what many people have said here for a long time: If you're looking for an explanation of why the Bills haven't won it all, don't look at the offense. It's the other side of the ball that has let the Bills down. Where do you see it not correlated with winning? A quick google search shows it is. Its less predictive than Turnovers so fair that turnovers are more important, but it definitely seems statistically significant. We could do some simple regressions against record but even the quick eye test from the OP shows the teams with a high winning percent are near the top of 3rd down %. Its def correlated with winning; probably less than turnovers but it is not insignificant like passing yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: What's the difference? The difference is you don't know what you're talking about. Last season, the Bills punted 49 times. The Jets led the league with 99. A team that punted five times a game more than the Bills would have had 134 punts, so your example is patently absurd. But even if you're going to talk about a reasonable number, like a team punting ONE more time a game than the Bills, which would mean a little better than the median, and put Allen at one half turnover a game more than the median, the difference is that in half the games, the Bills are giving up about 40 yards in field position. That's like the defense giving up more than 10% more yards for the game. I found the number a couple of weeks ago: On average, a turnover means your team is giving up four points. Two extra first downs a game doesn't get you four points, not even close. Field position is one of the most fundamental keys to success in football, and the lower the total points scored, the more important it becomes. The NFL is in an era where scoring is declining, and that makes turnovers more important. However, I'm interested in your last statement. How do you know that Allen has been more efficient over the past four seasons than any other player over any four-year period? That's an interesting stat. How's efficiency measured? Seems it really doesn't matter since now you want to talk about points, but yet the Bills also lead the NFL in points per game over the last 4 years as well. Colin Cowherd mentioned it on his show which they played the clip of today as I was driving, I believe its related to EPA or one of those stats. Edited July 17 by Big Turk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 I'm curious, what is our opponents' 3rd down conversion rate against us... specifically on 3rd & long. Not sure if it's just in my head, but it feels like any time it's 3rd & 7 or even 3rd & 15, it almost feels like an automatic first down against us 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 16 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Seems it really doesn't matter since now you want to talk about points, but yet the Bills also lead the NFL in points per game over the last 4 years as well. Colin Cowherd mentioned it on his show which they played the clip of today as I was driving, I believe its related to EPA or one of those stats. Thanks, I'll see if I can find something. That sounds like an interesting stat. 5 minutes ago, BigDingus said: I'm curious, what is our opponents' 3rd down conversion rate against us... specifically on 3rd & long. Not sure if it's just in my head, but it feels like any time it's 3rd & 7 or even 3rd & 15, it almost feels like an automatic first down against us 😅 Bills were 19th last season. Not pretty. But we sort of knew that, because they were playing hurt all season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaggersEOD Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 10 hours ago, mushypeaches said: I think that this statistic more than most explains why the Bills are so fun to watch and that Josh Allen is an elite QB On 3rd down, you never feel like the Bills can't convert. Josh Allen ALWAYS gives them a chance Contrast that to the previous soul-sucking years, especially when you needed LeSean McCoy to break 27 tackles on a screen pass on 3rd & 12 to maybe get close enough for a measurement. Ugh the Trentative Checkwards years 😩 I recall cheering on 1st downs or when the pass went further than…what…4 or 5 air yards? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills Bud Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Stats need to equate into rings or it’s useless 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 It's because he dually threatens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/40574131 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letsgoteam Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Great point about 2 or 3 plays, and some of those plays he wasn't even on the field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I made a thread about this months ago. The criticism has been insane when it should be directed more towards guys like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 6 hours ago, YattaOkasan said: Where do you see it not correlated with winning? A quick google search shows it is. Its less predictive than Turnovers so fair that turnovers are more important, but it definitely seems statistically significant. We could do some simple regressions against record but even the quick eye test from the OP shows the teams with a high winning percent are near the top of 3rd down %. Its def correlated with winning; probably less than turnovers but it is not insignificant like passing yards. Yeah, I think you state it correctly. It's not that third down percentage is meaningless. However, as you say, turnovers are much more important. And third down percentage really is a minor stat. The more important stat about downs is first downs. What matters is how many first downs you get, regardless of what down you get them on. And in first downs, the Bills were very good but not standout. They were third in the league, but there was very little difference among the top five. That's why you find the top teams have a good third down percentage. Coaches don't sit around trying to figure out how to improve their third down percentage; they sit around trying to figure out how to make their offense better. People do this a lot - they find some random stat and make a big deal about it. Third down percentage is nice, but it isn't all that important. Having a great third down percentage doesn't give you a great offense. It's the other way around: a good offense gets you a good third down percentage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 15 hours ago, Big Turk said: People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt. Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL. I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced. It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway. Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime. This is great information, and I am a true believer, but I am curious what the historical reference is. How does this compare previous QB”s over 4 year stretches, not just current streaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 4 hours ago, Bills Bud said: Stats need to equate into rings or it’s useless I agree, we don’t want moral victories. But its still rather impressive either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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