Bills have converted an absurd 49.0% of 3rd downs since 2020

[Big Turk]

People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt.

 

Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.  I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced.  It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway.

 

Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime.

 

Edited July 17 by Big Turk

[Sweats]

That's why i don't put a lot of fluff into the whole JA INT problem......i'd rather see JA lob the ball up on a 3rd down (whether he makes it or not, i really don't care) and just see what happens.

If it's a catch and we get a 1st down, then alright it's game on, however, if it gets intercepted, then who really cares cause at the end of the day, you want JA making plays, not our punters.

 

Now, if he's intercepted on 1st or 2nd down, then yeah, bring out the angry mobs with the torches and pitchforks......but 3rd down for me is a gamble, so just let the boy play and it's game on.

[HOUSE]

Hurdle more and care less

[Mr. WEO]

33 minutes ago, Sweats said:

That's why i don't put a lot of fluff into the whole JA INT problem......i'd rather see JA lob the ball up on a 3rd down (whether he makes it or not, i really don't care) and just see what happens.

If it's a catch and we get a 1st down, then alright it's game on, however, if it gets intercepted, then who really cares cause at the end of the day, you want JA making plays, not our punters.

 

Now, if he's intercepted on 1st or 2nd down, then yeah, bring out the angry mobs with the torches and pitchforks......but 3rd down for me is a gamble, so just let the boy play and it's game on.

 

no on punts on 3rd down...

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

The other thing to note is how him and mahomes have such low sack rates.  Sacks are drive killers as much as interceptions.  

 

Also, why is Tampa not on this list?  I just looked it up for my own sanity (2 good brady years, 1 rough year, and 1 solid mayfield year).  378/896 for 42.2%.  

Edited July 17 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[mushypeaches]

I think that this statistic more than most explains why the Bills are so fun to watch and that Josh Allen is an elite QB

 

On 3rd down, you never feel like the Bills can't convert.  Josh Allen ALWAYS gives them a chance

 

Contrast that to the previous soul-sucking years, especially when you needed LeSean McCoy to break 27 tackles on a screen pass on 3rd & 12 to maybe get close enough for a measurement.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt.

 

Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.  I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced.  It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway.

 

Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime.

 

Bills top 5 in 4DC percentage too.

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt.

 

Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.  I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced.  It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway.

 

Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime.

 

 

#Overrated 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt.

 

Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.  I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced.  It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway.

 

Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime.

 

Many of these conversions - at least during the first part of 2023 were a testament to Josh.  The Brett Kollman video shared how aggressive Buffalo was in the Dorsey offense which often put the often in bad positions.  Yet Josh was able to convert these crazy 3rd downs resulting in a very misleading EPA on offense.  

[njbuff]

All these glorious stats for this team over the years, yet no rings to show for it.

 

Ridiculous, isn’t it?

 

They owe us one…. or more. 😁

[Shaw66]

That's an amazing stat, and the team's 4th down percentage is pretty healthy, too.  

 

I'm not a total stats geek, so I won't - don't even know how to - do the work to figure this out, but I don't think your conclusion why the INTs is almost irrelevant.  I think if one does the statistical analysis, they'd find that third-down conversion isn't as important as a turnover.  A turnover instantly reduces your chance of scoring to near zero and, because of the significant change in field position, a turnover also increases the chances of the opponent scoring as compared to following a punt.  A third-down conversion doesn't increase the Bills' chances of scoring by nearly as much as a turnover improves the other team's chances.  

 

Turnovers cause big changes in the probability of winning, and third down conversions do not correlate to winning in the same way.  That's why pretty much all coaches and commentators talk about the giveaway-takeaway differential and virtually no one tracks third-down conversion differential. .  

[Logic]

They say a quarterback makes his money on third downs and in the 4th quarter.

Based on the Bills' 3rd down percentage numbers and Josh Allen's performance in the clutch, he is arguably the best quarterback in the game today.

At the very worst -- because I respect the "championships and League MVP awards" argument -- Allen is second to Mahomes. But the more I see as time goes on, the more I feel like I'm no longer sure that Patrick Mahomes is actually better than Josh Allen. 

We have an all-timer at quarterback, folks. 

[Matt_In_NH]

I agree this is the best of times in terms of Bills QB play.  Is the 49% really historic, in that chart KC is 0.7% off the pace.  It definitely could be with all the modern rule changes.  Having said all that there is room for JA to reduce turnovers, it is ok to say he is the greatest thing to ever happen to this team and he also has an area he could improve.   All his INT's are not arm punts.   The other great QB's of today also have higher INT% than from a few years back...even Mahomes has just a few less than Allen in recent years...the 2 high shell has had an impact.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

All these glorious stats for this team over the years, yet no rings to show for it.

 

😁

It's because stats like this don't correlate with winning.  As much as we hate to admit it, when Josh turns the ball over, it hurts his team a lot.   

 

What's amazing to me is the difference between the regular season and the playoffs.   I get carried away in these discussions, because I'm sure that Josh's regular-season turnovers hurt the team.   However, it's hard to complain too much about it, because the Bills make the playoffs every season, and in the playoffs, Josh has 21 career playoff TD passes and 4 INTs.   That number alone seems to prove what many people have said here for a long time:  If you're looking for an explanation of why the Bills haven't won it all, don't look at the offense.  It's the other side of the ball that has let the Bills down. 

[njbuff]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's because stats like this don't correlate with winning.  As much as we hate to admit it, when Josh turns the ball over, it hurts his team a lot.   

 

What's amazing to me is the difference between the regular season and the playoffs.   I get carried away in these discussions, because I'm sure that Josh's regular-season turnovers hurt the team.   However, it's hard to complain too much about it, because the Bills make the playoffs every season, and in the playoffs, Josh has 21 career playoff TD passes and 4 INTs.   That number alone seems to prove what many people have said here for a long time:  If you're looking for an explanation of why the Bills haven't won it all, don't look at the offense.  It's the other side of the ball that has let the Bills down. 

 
It’s been 7 years now.

 

It’s about time the defense decides to join the party in the postseason,

[LABILLBACKER]

42 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 
It’s been 7 years now.

 

It’s about time the defense decides to join the party in the postseason,

Yep, we're all sick and tired of waiting around for McD's defense to hold up their end of the bargain. One Taron pic6 in 7 years.  That's it......pretty pathetic. 

[Sweats]

Now, someone throw the stats out here where opposing teams have converted on our D........that, is what actually matters when it comes to 3rd down stats.

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

3rd down crack hits are the best. 

[Brand J]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

People talk about Allen's turnovers, but this is why it's almost irrelevant...because we hardly ever punt.

 

Why? Because Allen converts 3rd downs at likely a rate never seen before in the history of the NFL.  I cannot imagine there has ever been a 4 year period where a QB has converted nearly 50% of third downs his team has faced.  It's an absolutely absurd stat. It's like it's 3rd and 15+, and you just expect Allen to convert it anyway.

 

Never take this era for granted no matter what happens...we are never going to see another player like this on this team in our lifetime.

 

Conventional wisdom says that, as he’s one of the best Bills to ever put the uniform on, but you never know! 

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

I think that this statistic more than most explains why the Bills are so fun to watch and that Josh Allen is an elite QB

 

On 3rd down, you never feel like the Bills can't convert.  Josh Allen ALWAYS gives them a chance

 

Contrast that to the previous soul-sucking years, especially when you needed LeSean McCoy to break 27 tackles on a screen pass on 3rd & 12 to maybe get close enough for a measurement.

Coupled with a defense that seems to frequently give up first downs on third and long, and the games are a roller coaster ride.