The Quality of Our Opinions

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

So for example, Matt Millen's really bright, much more so than anyone here? 

 

A little closer to home ...

 

Russ Brandon? 

 

Doug Whaley?  

 

 

 

I think you have to separate Millen out a little from the conversation. Sure, he is an example of an incompetent NFL senior exec but we know he was hired for who he was not what he knew. Every now and again those total left field hires from out of the booth etc happen - Millen, John Lynch, Jeff Saturday. They normally (though not always) fail. You have to separate those out from the conversation about the people who come up through the conventional route IMO. 

 

The interesting question is the extent to which the NFL develops coaches and personnel people to be Head Coaches and General Managers and whether that process is identifying and promoting the right people. My view is that broadly it does but like every profession it makes mistakes as well and you occasionally find a total incompetent in a senior position. 

Edited July 17 by GunnerBill

[JP51]

I am pretty sure there are some not many who could contribute in an NFL FO... I know I am not one, I could not scout college kids and translate them into grown NFL players etc... in fact how they do it honestly amazes me. However, there are other facets of observation including team make up, cap maneuvering,  tactical planning etc... where I think a person could be helpful simply because we can observe objectively. That objectivity and knowing what we see not what we want to see can provide value.  Its easy for a GM to fall in love with their players and be clouded, but sometimes the eye test is undeniable.

 

In the end though... it the difference between making the 6 foot putt and making the 6 foot putt to win the masters... something happens... when your job is on the line its much harder to pull the trigger.. we have the luxury of saying Ooops I was wrong on Josh, or Keon isnt that slow etc... they make the wrong call and they live with it. 

Edited July 17 by JP51

[buffaloboyinATL]

21 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I have ambivalent thought about how smart we are.

 

On the one hand, none of us here is as smart about football as professional coaches and personnel guys.  As much as I respect some of you, and I do, we're just not.  Imagine if you worked 50, 60, 70 hours a week for an NFL club.  You spend all your time talking to players, coaches, and personnel guys, getting their insights.  You study reams of tape.  You're at very practice.  You attend seminars, read books & articles, call up the brightest brains you know and pick them.  As smart as you may be right now as a poster, in that environment you'd be so much smarter.  

 

So I pay close attention when NFL coaches and personnel guys talk.  

 

On the other hand, I was reading the ESPN article by Jeremy Fowler where he has execs rate players.  One exec rated Allen as the best QB in the league.  Some others didn't list him in the top five.  And I found myself not really caring because I'm confident in my own evaluation.  I've watched Josh's every throw.  Some execs in the NFC may have only watched a couple of complete games and some highlights.   

 

Now if Bill Belichick got on TV to talk about Josh, I'd hang on every word because he knows football 1,000 better than I do.  And he's studied Josh at a level I probably can't even imagine and knows Josh better too.  But if one of the execs Fowler talked to was Justin Chabot, for example - the 49ers Assistant Director of College Scouting - why should I value his opinion about Josh?  While I'm sure Mr. Chabot knows football far better than I do, I bet I know Josh Allen better than him.  All of us do.

 

Does anyone care about these rankings?  

To paraphrase Joey Tribiani, analyst rankings are like the opinions of a cow; they are moo…

[Beck Water]

On 7/16/2024 at 11:03 AM, boyst said:

i 100% disagree that none of us are as smart as those in professional football.

 

What kind of smart are you talking about?  Life smarts?  Intelligence measured by tests?  Intelligence measured by life accomplishments that require intelligence for success?  Sure, bunch of folks here That Smart by those criteria and more.

 

If you're talking about actual knowledge of the game and football talent evaluation abilities, Pfft.

I mean no disrespect, I know there are guys here who have scouted, coached college and HS ball, played DI ball and who have a deep knowledge of the game.

 

But when it's actually your full time job and you do it to put bread on the table, you're at a different level.

Of course there are many roles in an NFL FO and not all of them require deep football knowledge, so there are probably people in the building some of us would outclass.

Edited July 17 by Beck Water

[hondo in seattle]

13 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Idk I’ve seen people on various Buffalo Bills forums make better mock drafts of guys who would’ve actually been available than numerous GMs. The Whitner/Ngata is the most famous one, but a lot of people HATED the Spiller, EJ Manuel, McGahee, Elam picks including myself. 

 

Here's how I think about that.

 

The draft is a crap shoot.   You may be a scout who studies college players full time for a living but the problem is that you are fully immersed in a world of uncertainty.  You can't know for sure which guys will continue to grow their skillset, which guys will develop emotional problems, who will get life-altering injuries, and so on.  You're in a predictive business and that's a dangerous business to be in.  

 

Imagine a new game at Vegas - if you correctly guess a coin flip, you win $1000.  You and I may go on streaks where we win 5 or 10 times in a row.  But if we keep playing, we'll win about 50% of the time.

 

An NFL scout has expertise and insider knowledge that allows him to win 60% of the time.  Sometimes, when we're on a roll,  we're better than him.  But over the long haul, he'll win thousands of more dollars.  

That's how I see the draft.  

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you have to separate Millen out a little from the conversation. Sure, he is an example of an incompetent NFL senior exec but we know he was hired for who he was not what he knew. Every now and again those total left field hires from out of the booth etc happen - Millen, John Lynch, Jeff Saturday. They normally (though not always) fail. You have to separate those out from the conversation about the people who come up through the conventional route IMO. 

 

The interesting question is the extent to which the NFL develops coaches and personnel people to be Head Coaches and General Managers and whether that process is identifying and promoting the right people. My view is that broadly it does but like every profession it makes mistakes as well and you occasionally find a total incompetent in a senior position. 

 

Good post, GB.  I agree with everything you wrote but I think it's hard - though not impossible - for a totally incompetent person to rise to the level of GM or HC.

 

I've been in a lot of organizations, civilian and military, and none of them are perfect in their hiring and promotion processes.  You always see guys get hired or promoted who shouldn't have been.  And capable people, sadly, get passed over.  

 

But most organizations do perform in these areas at an above-random level.  So, generally speaking, good people rise up the ranks.  And let's remember that in the world of NFL coaching - where glory can be found and the income potential is great - there are a lot of talented people vying for the positions.

 

Generally speaking, the best of those get hired as QCs or some other entry level schlep position.

Generally, the best of those become assistant position coaches.

Generally, the best of those  become position coaches.

Generally, the best of those become coordinators.

Generally, the best of those become head coaches.

 

The path for scout-to GM-works the same way.  The morons are being weeded out at every level.

 

But let's say that I'm a young moron - but a very special moron with an angel looking out for me.  So I get hired to work quality control.  With my angel's help, after twenty years I work my way up to a HC position.  In that scenario, I'm probably not a moron any more.  For two decades, I've been immersed in football with access to players and data regular people don't have and countless opportunities to learn from good football minds.  I may not be the best coach but I'm still smarter at this stuff than any fan in the stands.  

[GunnerBill]

57 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good post, GB.  I agree with everything you wrote but I think it's hard - though not impossible - for a totally incompetent person to rise to the level of GM or HC.

 

I've been in a lot of organizations, civilian and military, and none of them are perfect in their hiring and promotion processes.  You always see guys get hired or promoted who shouldn't have been.  And capable people, sadly, get passed over.  

 

But most organizations do perform in these areas at an above-random level.  So, generally speaking, good people rise up the ranks.  And let's remember that in the world of NFL coaching - where glory can be found and the income potential is great - there are a lot of talented people vying for the positions.

 

Generally speaking, the best of those get hired as QCs or some other entry level schlep position.

Generally, the best of those become assistant position coaches.

Generally, the best of those  become position coaches.

Generally, the best of those become coordinators.

Generally, the best of those become head coaches.

 

The path for scout-to GM-works the same way.  The morons are being weeded out at every level.

 

But let's say that I'm a young moron - but a very special moron with an angel looking out for me.  So I get hired to work quality control.  With my angel's help, after twenty years I work my way up to a HC position.  In that scenario, I'm probably not a moron any more.  For two decades, I've been immersed in football with access to players and data regular people don't have and countless opportunities to learn from good football minds.  I may not be the best coach but I'm still smarter at this stuff than any fan in the stands.  

 

I direct the jury to article 1.0 - Jim Tomsula.

 

(Agree generally though, total incompetents may be harsh but guys who are clearly not good enough or incompetent for the level to which they have risen). 

Edited July 17 by GunnerBill

[Saxum]

On 7/16/2024 at 4:03 PM, boyst said:

i 100% disagree that none of us are as smart as those in professional football.

 

I agree if you include the owners who are sticking themselves in the non-money decisions.

 

$nder as example would direct certain players be signed so they could attend his parties.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I direct the jury to article 1.0 - Jim Tomsula.

 

(Agree generally though, total incompetents may be harsh but guys who are clearly not good enough or incompetent for the level to which they have risen). 

 

Tomsula was, um...  different... when he coached in the NFL.  But he's now the coach of the Rhein Fire - the reigning European League Football champs - and went undefeated last year.   

 

He was incompetent at the NFL level but is seemingly talented at the 'ELF' level.  

 

Point taken.  

 

 

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you have to separate Millen out a little from the conversation. Sure, he is an example of an incompetent NFL senior exec but we know he was hired for who he was not what he knew. Every now and again those total left field hires from out of the booth etc happen - Millen, John Lynch, Jeff Saturday. They normally (though not always) fail. You have to separate those out from the conversation about the people who come up through the conventional route IMO. 

 

The interesting question is the extent to which the NFL develops coaches and personnel people to be Head Coaches and General Managers and whether that process is identifying and promoting the right people. My view is that broadly it does but like every profession it makes mistakes as well and you occasionally find a total incompetent in a senior position. 

 

LOL, well, if we start separating people out, ... that's kind of the point.  

 

The NFL has circles from which it hires people such as those that this discussion is about.  They rarely go outside of those circles.  

 

While many people have certain experience(s), the Peter Principle comes into play quite often.  

 

I can put my past drafting analyses up against most of our GMs, and there's no comparison, and I'm technically not an "expert" as is often decried.  I don't follow your analyses closely enough, until this year, so I don't know whether you fall into the same category, but it's ridiculous to claim that anyone in a position that we're discussing, is automatically competent.  

 

I notice that you didn't mention Brandon or Whaley, who were anything but competent in their personnel decisions, particularly regarding the Drafts.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, well, if we start separating people out, ... that's kind of the point.  

 

The NFL has circles from which it hires people such as those that this discussion is about.  They rarely go outside of those circles.  

 

While many people have certain experience(s), the Peter Principle comes into play quite often.  

 

I can put my past drafting analyses up against most of our GMs, and there's no comparison, and I'm technically not an "expert" as is often decried.  I don't follow your analyses closely enough, until this year, so I don't know whether you fall into the same category, but it's ridiculous to claim that anyone in a position that we're discussing, is automatically competent.  

 

I notice that you didn't mention Brandon or Whaley, who were anything but competent in their personnel decisions, particularly regarding the Drafts.  

 

 

 

The point is Millen was from outside the circles of where general managers come from. So he isn't proof of anything one way or another. He got a GM job with zero personnel experience. 

 

Brandon was a GM in name only. He did no more than turn in the card. Tom Modrak was the Bills decision maker in those two drafts and FA periods (he was actually the Bills real GM for 4 years between 2006 and 2009 but because he worked pretty much the entire time from home in Florida presentationally they knew they couldn't give him the title so Marv and Brandon had the title but did none of the job).  Whaley was not a great general manager. No question. 

 

And I am not arguing anyone in those jobs is automatically competent. Not at all. I am saying like most industries a share of those that get to the top are duds. But I think the NFL gets it more right than wrong overall when it relies on elevating guys who have been good assistants to the top jobs.

Edited July 17 by GunnerBill

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And I am not arguing anyone in those jobs is automatically competent. Not at all. 

 

Sounds as if we're in agreement then on the OP's point.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sounds as if we're in agreement then on the OP's point.  

 

 

Yes, all I was saying was Millen is a bad example to use to try and prove the point. Because he was from the start an anomoly in his appointment to the role.

 

[Fleezoid]

 

[boyst]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

What kind of smart are you talking about?  Life smarts?  Intelligence measured by tests?  Intelligence measured by life accomplishments that require intelligence for success?  Sure, bunch of folks here That Smart by those criteria and more.

 

If you're talking about actual knowledge of the game and football talent evaluation abilities, Pfft.

I mean no disrespect, I know there are guys here who have scouted, coached college and HS ball, played DI ball and who have a deep knowledge of the game.

 

But when it's actually your full time job and you do it to put bread on the table, you're at a different level.

Of course there are many roles in an NFL FO and not all of them require deep football knowledge, so there are probably people in the building some of us would outclass.

I mean all knowledge but football knowledge in general. HC know a whole lot about football but they're also great managers, too. 

 

Further, staffing folks in positions etc can be rivaled by people here. 

 

Front office folks, they're easy to pick off.

 

Not all of the NFL has all stars in the office and sidelines. ... But there are some low hangers that we could rival. 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes, all I was saying was Millen is a bad example to use to try and prove the point. Because he was from the start an anomoly in his appointment to the role.

 

 

Perhaps the OP should have qualified his post somewhat then rather than characterizing all people in these positions as experts.  

 

And BTW, the list hardly stops there, with him, Whaley, and Brandon, as you know.  

 

It's nonsense to consider for even a NY second that they all know more than anyone that isn't in such a position, at any of varying levels of many things throughout the country.  It doesn't seem to me that too many in those roles possess above-average analytical skills, which are incredibly valuable in those roles.  

 

 

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

On 7/16/2024 at 12:22 PM, hondo in seattle said:

I'm not sure how some of them finished college with their poor grammar

 

 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Perhaps the OP should have qualified his post somewhat then rather than characterizing all people in these positions as experts.  

 

And BTW, the list hardly stops there, with him, Whaley, and Brandon, as you know.  

 

It's nonsense to consider for even a NY second that they all know more than anyone that isn't in such a position, at any of varying levels of many things throughout the country.  It doesn't seem to me that too many in those roles possess above-average analytical skills, which are incredibly valuable in those roles.  

 

 

 

It doesn't stop with them, no. But there are far more guys who do know a lot more about what they are doing than the average fan in the street does. As I say, there are always duds, but that isn't the majority.

[TBBills Fan]

I feel all of my opinions are high quality. 

 

I would guess most of you feel the same about yours!

[MikePJ76]

Honestly I have heard reporters talk about how jeremy fowler just makes things up and espn knows he does it.  

 

So I don't really have any interest in what he says.  Not really a fan of any national reporters anymore since everything

got skip bayless'd and stephen a smith'd.