The Quality of Our Opinions

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Agree on information

 

However I submit intelligence is not prerequisite for working in nor following closely enough to have informed opinions of the league at large

 

In fact I'm more of the opinion that  the cumulative IQ of the NFL and its fan base probably falls below average compared to other pro sports leagues

Superior intelligence isn't a prerequisite for working in any industry.  

 

Plenty of NFL execs have little to no football experience prior to taking entry level jobs with a team.  The ability to work 100 hour weeks for $22k a year is what seems to qualify you for a position that can one day lead to running an NFL team.  That or being a coach's son. 

 

But money attracts talent and I also find it hard to believe that a multi billion dollar organization is run by guys who are negligibly more informed than the typical message board dweller despite spending an entire career immersed in the sport.

Edited July 16 by Jauronimo

[FireChans]

46 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Agree on information

 

However I submit intelligence is not prerequisite for working in nor following closely enough to have informed opinions of the league at large

 

In fact I'm more of the opinion that  the cumulative IQ of the NFL and its fan base probably falls below average compared to other pro sports leagues

On the business side? No.

 

on the operations side, you have a point.

 

Look at the NBA for example. Their organizations are FILLED with MIT type guys. Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie (RIP). Guys that are pioneers in pushing the envelopment from an analytical standpoint. 
 

The gold standard for analytics in the NFL for the last 20 years is a guy who went to Wesleyan College and got paid 25 bucks a week to be a coaching assistant.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

This tells me that you have not been in the company of professional coaches and executives.

 

It is a common misconception and one that extends to the c-suite.

 

People often assume: “X person made it to Y level, they must be brilliant”.

 

That is often NOT the case. Much of it is luck, mixed with opportunity, mixed with timing, mixed with attitude, mixed with who you know, mixed with several other factors as well.

 

So I have been in that company on a number of occasions. Some are super smart guys who I definitely felt in awe of. But it is like any profession, it is a mixed bag. And I agree with you, not everyone who makes it makes it because they are brilliant. I'd say more of those at the top are there because of talent than not.... but it is definitely not universal.

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

On the business side? No.

 

on the operations side, you have a point.

 

Look at the NBA for example. Their organizations are FILLED with MIT type guys. Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie (RIP). Guys that are pioneers in pushing the envelopment from an analytical standpoint. 
 

The gold standard for analytics in the NFL for the last 20 years is a guy who went to Wesleyan College and got paid 25 bucks a week to be a coaching assistant.

good point re the business part

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I agree but with the emphasis on "sometimes."   Normally, I think they're smarter than that.  But I remember a lot of talk from OBD about EJ Manuel's big hands, as if that was meaningful.

I remember that talk, too, and I remember thinking at the time that those guys' job was to say something (1) true and (2) positive, and that was all they could come up with.  I think they took Manuel on a wing and a prayer, and they knew it.  

[Jauronimo]

17 minutes ago, eball said:

 

This times 1000.

 

When I was a kid I thought all of these guys must be so smart.  Now I know differently.  There are a lot of morons making important decisions in all walks of life -- professional sports included.

 

True.  But also there aren't nearly as many geniuses mopping the floor as hollywood may have us believe.  

 

As much as we all love the idea of out of touch corporate suits making boneheaded decisions that the grunts on the floor could have easily avoided with their aww shucks hands on chicken fried know how, I don't think thats generally accurate either.  

 

Its the blind leading the blind out there.  But I am more decisive, aggressive, louder and, most importantly, taller so I get to make the lower-upper middle management decisions, as is the natural order of things.   

[muppy]

lol Let me go on he record as saying I read this fan board and the posters I follow to be the most saavy smartest Bills fans around. And even if they don't agree that to me isn't important.

 

What and how they discuss things is rational, clear, reasoned and what they are saying has a large degree of truth AND from many experience. THAT is what is important to me

 

Heck yes I value opinions here. I cherry pick the best of you and I consider myself as well informed as any NFL fan around reading you football IQ heavyweightss. On Bills football.

 

This board RULES

 

and me being the fangirl I am read a Lot Learn a LOT too. YEP!

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

True.  But also there aren't nearly as many geniuses mopping the floor as hollywood may have us believe.  

 

As much as we all love the idea of out of touch corporate suits making boneheaded decisions that the grunts on the floor could have easily avoided with their aww shucks hands on chicken fried know how, I don't think thats generally accurate either.  

 

Its the blind leading the blind out there.  But I am more decisive, aggressive, louder and, most importantly, taller so I get to make the lower-upper middle management decisions, as is the natural order of things.   

Yes

 

I'm not saying there are fewer smarter people in the NFL so much as I am there are more dumber ones everywhere

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes

 

I'm not saying there are fewer smarter people in the NFL so much as I am there are more dumber ones everywhere

"more dumber ones everywhere" is not a good look,  JFYI

[GoBills808]

Got one😂😂

[LABILLBACKER]

Listen,  rankings are arbitrary at best and inaccurate at worst.  There will always be gms, execs, coaches and journalists who rank their guys all over the map. Cowherd opened his show today spending 10 minutes praising Josh's accomplishments over the years despite unfair criticism.  He compared him to Farve & Manning because they had their Mahomes (Brady) to hurdle over.  Patrick & Josh in my eyes will always be 1 & 2. After that I really don't care where you stick Burrow (injuries) or Lamar (playoff failures).  And to wrap up Cowherds show he stressed "don't EVER tell Josh to stop taking risks. The greatest people in history took risks".

[Success]

Just a side note because you mentioned Belichick in the OP - I think that guy loves Allen, kind of how he felt about players like LT & Ed Reed.  I think he sees a pure football player & competitor.

 

I remember him making a bee-line for Josh after some of those games.  

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

I have a good friend that works in the NFL (not the Bills).  When we discuss football I realize that his quality and quantity of information sources is much different than the information available to fans through the media and available film.  He has told me on multiple occasions not to accept much of what we read in the sports media.  He believes local news coverage is always better for their home team than any national media coverage of those teams.  He also says to watch the games and really pay attentions to what you see and trust your eyes.  The outcome of a particular play doesn't always indicate how every player executed their assignment. He also has said that coaches really do learn more about their players from practice than they do from most of their games.  My point is that several things he predicted about players that the Bills either drafted or otherwise acquired was spot on (both good and bad).  Example are Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis, Edmunds, Sammy Watkins, and Zay Jones. Several people that post routinely on this site have been spot on with their predictions on some of these same players over the years.  As a result, I do pay close attention to posts by certain people because they have proven to be a good source of information.

[WideNine]

On 7/16/2024 at 8:54 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

The "rankings" and that article is just offseason fodder. ESPN has milked Fowlers article for 2 days of morning talk, and will likely talk about it tomorrow too. It's all just subjective BS.

 

From what I've seen, Josh ended up #3 on the list in the article, but was #2 on a lot of the talking heads' lists.

 

Either way, I'm just thrilled that the Bills have a QB in that top 3-5 discussion.

 

With regards to the quality of our opinions vs the professionals, I was very interested in watching the Giants Offseason Hard Knocks to see the real discussions that go on while building a team. Turns out, they are VERY similar to discussions here and that I have with my buddies. The only difference is they have more access to the players. Not sure if that makes me feel better, or worse (that I'm not making $1M/year for my TBD posting).

 

Some "hot takes" on players  I remember from this board.

 

Not that I think folks are wishing for any players we pickup to struggle.

 

Edmunds was very replaceable at LB.

 

Cody Ford was going to struggle with foot speed and subsequently his balance and leverage in pass pro. Kromer may have been able to coach him up more and get more out of him as a run game mauler that I think he was better suited to.

 

Humphrey at center was a better bet than Basham.

 

I think this board universally hated on Kelvin Benjamin and questioned his work ethic and effectiveness the moment he refused to warm up and catch passes with our young QB Josh Allen before a game. He did not pan out here or anywhere else.

 

We are overpaying for Star.

 

The list goes on and on and to be fair of course the times when there were different opinions and I like that too... folks to challenge opinions.

 

I loved his aggressive playing style but argued that Taron Johnson would never stay healthy enough to be a solid contributor. Apologies to Taron who has turned in many great seasons and is recognized as one of the premier slot corners in the league.

 

I wanted Hokenson or the TE the Jags drafted over Knox. Folks here argued you don't take a TE that high. Oliver has outshined Hockenson and that Jags TE tore himself up in training camp and ended up on IR his first 2 seasons. I think he is now on the Vikings and is considered a blocking TE. Looks like he ate that guy who was drafted.

I was worried going into last season with Bernard who looked so overwhelmed as a rookie in 2022. The Bills can coach these guys up if they have the athletic ceiling. It is too funny that the national media has labeled him as a breakout player this year - what was last year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 17 by WideNine

[Sierra Foothills]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 I remember a lot of talk from OBD about EJ Manuel's big hands, as if that was meaningful.

It is meaningful depending on the industry.

 

11 hours ago, dpberr said:

Journalism is so lazy today.   90% of it is just shotgunned freelance content for content's sake or journalists who'd rather be columnists so all their energy… 

Most of it isn’t journalism… it’s simply “content.”

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

12 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I have ambivalent thought about how smart we are.

 

On the one hand, none of us here is as smart about football as professional coaches and personnel guys.  As much as I respect some of you, and I do, we're just not.  Imagine if you worked 50, 60, 70 hours a week for an NFL club.  You spend all your time talking to players, coaches, and personnel guys, getting their insights.  You study reams of tape.  You're at very practice.  You attend seminars, read books & articles, call up the brightest brains you know and pick them.  As smart as you may be right now as a poster, in that environment you'd be so much smarter.  

 

So I pay close attention when NFL coaches and personnel guys talk.  

 

On the other hand, I was reading the ESPN article by Jeremy Fowler where he has execs rate players.  One exec rated Allen as the best QB in the league.  Some others didn't list him in the top five.  And I found myself not really caring because I'm confident in my own evaluation.  I've watched Josh's every throw.  Some execs in the NFC may have only watched a couple of complete games and some highlights.   

 

Now if Bill Belichick got on TV to talk about Josh, I'd hang on every word because he knows football 1,000 better than I do.  And he's studied Josh at a level I probably can't even imagine and knows Josh better too.  But if one of the execs Fowler talked to was Justin Chabot, for example - the 49ers Assistant Director of College Scouting - why should I value his opinion about Josh?  While I'm sure Mr. Chabot knows football far better than I do, I bet I know Josh Allen better than him.  All of us do.

 

Does anyone care about these rankings?  

Idk I’ve seen people on various Buffalo Bills forums make better mock drafts of guys who would’ve actually been available than numerous GMs. The Whitner/Ngata is the most famous one, but a lot of people HATED the Spiller, EJ Manuel, McGahee, Elam picks including myself. 

[PBF81]

So for example, Matt Millen's really bright, much more so than anyone here? 

 

A little closer to home ...

 

Russ Brandon? 

 

Doug Whaley?  

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

Was hoping this would be a poll. 

 

Was gonna vote no.

[ghostwriter]

It’s even worse during the regular season. Coming to this place after a loss is brutal.

[Richard Noggin]

7 minutes ago, ghostwriter said:

It’s even worse during the regular season. Coming to this place after a loss is brutal.

 

Reads like Twitter after a loss. The toxicity spikes.