Who is your surprise cut this year?

[GASabresIUFan]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The contracts matter. Looking at them and their guarantees is telling when projecting cuts. Usually you just need to follow the money:

 

MVS - 1 year, $2.25M, Fully guaranteed. 

 

Claypool - 1 year, $1.135M, only the $25k signing bonus is guaranteed. 

 

Hamler - 1 year, $1.055M, no guarantees. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/_/year/2024

 

Barring injury or complete disaster, MVS will make the 53 over Claypool and Hamler. 

It's not going to matter.  They have plenty of space to cut him.  Despite a couple of clutch catches last year, he still not good.  His catch% is 50% for his career.  On 42 targets last year he only had 315 yards or about half of Shakir's production with a similar about of targets.  Personally, I think this is Beane's worst signing on the off-season.

[BisonMan]

Bass…but the surprise is that he is still on the roster to be cut.

[njbuff]

Josh Allen. 😁

[GunnerBill]

On 7/12/2024 at 3:44 AM, ghostwriter said:

Deion Jones is my surprise cut.

 

Buffalo decides to take the youthful approach and Milano, Bernard, Dorian and Ulofoshio will be their core LBs going forward.

 

Wouldn't qualify as a surprise in my book. I'd be shocked if Jones makes the roster.

20 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm very excited about Davis, optimistic he'll have a big role. 

 

Cook was 3rd, almost 2nd in scrimmage yards for rbs, top 15 is straight disrespectful.  I agree on the drops but he also made some big time catches, no reason he can't keep progressing and improve in that department, I think he's way closer to top 5 then top 15

 

All his drops were concentration in the redzone when he took his eye off the ball. Between the 20s his hands were very good. It needs fixing but it is an easy fix IMO.

On 7/10/2024 at 10:59 PM, boyst said:

That's why I said surprise cut. He'd have come in lazy, lost, spent. 

 

Von is my answer too. It would be a surprise.... I expect him on the roster.... but if he looks no better in camp reality will dawn on them pretty fast IMO. They won't keep him if he can't play and the last time we saw him on the field he couldn't play.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 7/11/2024 at 12:10 PM, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Ty Johnson would be a surprise for me.  In the absence of another free agent pickup, it would mean that either Davis or one of the UDFA rookies is the backup for Cook.  I would not expect McD to place that much reliance on a first year back.

 

I'll go with this direction.  I was going to post with instead of a surprise cut, was going to go with a surprise of who makes the team and my pick was going going to be Frank Gore Jr.  And likely for him to make the roster, Johnson would become a prime cut candidate.

 

 

21 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The contracts matter. Looking at them and their guarantees is telling when projecting cuts. Usually you just need to follow the money:

 

MVS - 1 year, $2.25M, Fully guaranteed. 

 

Claypool - 1 year, $1.135M, only the $25k signing bonus is guaranteed. 

 

Hamler - 1 year, $1.055M, no guarantees. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/_/year/2024

 

Barring injury or complete disaster, MVS will make the 53 over Claypool and Hamler. 

 

$2.25Mil isn't a huge deal in the NFL so that amount hardly guarantees he makes the roster over someone who outplays him. Good chance MVS is on the team, but doubtful it's because of the contract.

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

$2.25Mil isn't a huge deal in the NFL so that amount hardly guarantees he makes the roster over someone who outplays him. Good chance MVS is on the team, but doubtful it's because of the contract.

 

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

It's not going to matter.  They have plenty of space to cut him.  Despite a couple of clutch catches last year, he still not good.  His catch% is 50% for his career.  On 42 targets last year he only had 315 yards or about half of Shakir's production with a similar about of targets.  Personally, I think this is Beane's worst signing on the off-season.

 

While $2.25M is no guarantee that MVS makes the roster, contracts do matter. They show that the Bills expect MVS to make the team and they’ll give him more opportunity to do so than they will Claypool or Hamler. He’ll also get the benefit of doubt if it’s close since the overall cost of keeping Claypool or Hamler over him would be higher by over $1M.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I think that your argument that the Bills should not have given MVS those guarantees is reasonable. I also think that on a level playing field Claypool - if he’s really gotten himself together - might beat MVS for a roster spot. But it’s not a level playing field. 

[GASabresIUFan]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

While $2.25M is no guarantee that MVS makes the roster, contracts do matter. They show that the Bills expect MVS to make the team and they’ll give him more opportunity to do so than they will Claypool or Hamler. He’ll also get the benefit of doubt if it’s close since the overall cost of keeping Claypool or Hamler over him would be higher by over $1M.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I think that your argument that the Bills should not have given MVS those guarantees is reasonable. I also think that on a level playing field Claypool - if he’s really gotten himself together - might beat MVS for a roster spot. But it’s not a level playing field. 

Yes contracts matter, but not to Beane this season. 

 

Beane cut this off-season White and Diggs among others creating a $61 dead cap charge this season.  Beane isn't keeping a guy who doesn't make the team better.  We have 7.5 mill in cap space, dumping MVS will leave plenty of cap space to operate this season.

 

This thread is about a surprise cut.  Clearly people here would be surprised if Beane cut MVS.  However, I'm not one of them.  The guy just isn't that good and should have never been signed.  Is getting the KC playbook from MVS really worth 2.25?  Maybe! 

 

Edited July 13 by GASabresIUFan

[BarleyNY]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Yes contracts matter, but not to Beane this season. 

 

Beane cut this off-season White and Diggs among others creating a $61 dead cap charge this season.  Beane isn't keeping a guy who doesn't make the team better.  We have 7.5 mill in cap space, dumping MVS will leave plenty of cap space to operate this season.

 

This thread is about a surprise cut.  Clearly people here would be surprised if Beane cut MVS.  However, I'm not one of them.  The guy just isn't that good and should have never been signed.  Is getting the KC playbook from MVS really worth 2.25?  Maybe! 

 

 

$7.5M is not adequate cap space to go through the season. OTC has it at $10M, which would be about the minimum the team would need. The Bills still have to move to a 53 man roster (~$2M), add a practice squad (~$4M) and make in-season moves ($4M-$5M minimum). There really isn’t any wiggle room unless they create some more space - and there are precious few ways for them to do that.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

While $2.25M is no guarantee that MVS makes the roster, contracts do matter. They show that the Bills expect MVS to make the team and they’ll give him more opportunity to do so than they will Claypool or Hamler. He’ll also get the benefit of doubt if it’s close since the overall cost of keeping Claypool or Hamler over him would be higher by over $1M.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I think that your argument that the Bills should not have given MVS those guarantees is reasonable. I also think that on a level playing field Claypool - if he’s really gotten himself together - might beat MVS for a roster spot. But it’s not a level playing field. 

 

The problem there is likely if the Bills didn't give him that some other team would have.  One thing I think the Bills and most NFL teams are very good (unlike many poster here) is gauging a players worth and knowing how much to pay someone if they want that player, whether it be re-signing their own or signing a FA, they know what to offer as do most teams.

[BarleyNY]

26 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The problem there is likely if the Bills didn't give him that some other team would have.  One thing I think the Bills and most NFL teams are very good (unlike many poster here) is gauging a players worth and knowing how much to pay someone if they want that player, whether it be re-signing their own or signing a FA, they know what to offer as do most teams.

 

Sure. That’s how the league valued MVS. The league also valued Claypool at minimum salary plus $25k and Hamler at minimum salary. That should tell you which WR the league consider the best of the three and is the most likely to make the team. 

[hondo in seattle]

On 7/10/2024 at 10:20 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree, Mitch would be a surprise, you don't see a lot of good teams mess with the QB room late in the offseason very often unless they are a team that clearly needs a better backup. That is just because it's the position that takes the most time to learn.  Between the playbook, lingo, reps with receivers, etc it's just a tall ask to get a new QB up to speed while you are prepping the team for the start of the season. 

 

That is even more true for the Bills since the whole offense is learning a new system as well.  So for me, I think it's a low probability (although not impossible by any means) that Mitch is cut for those reasons and also given they know him, resigned him, and he and Allen are tight.  I think they would have to really want the other QB to make that change just before the season starts.  

 

 

 

I agree that its a low probability for all the reasons you stated.  And it's not a move I'd necessarily like.   But cutting Mitch was, in my mind, the highest probability of the possibilities that would qualify as a surprise.

 

Cutting Von, Knox, Elam or Edwards would be surprises too, for example, but even a lower probability than cutting Mitch.   

 

Cutting Hamlin, for example, is more probable than cutting Mitch but wouldn't count as a surprise.  

 

There's a lot of flux and uncertainty this year.   It'll be interesting to see what roster decisions McD makes and what the WR depth chart ends up looking like.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Prospector]

On 7/10/2024 at 11:16 AM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

All of these players are good. That's why it would be a surprise.  

I'm fine putting the best five out there.  I never thought Morse lived up to his contract. He was 10-15 guy at best never a top 5 guy even though at one point he was paid top dollar.  So I have no issue with them moving McGovern to C or giving the rookie a shot.  However if Van Pran is good enough to start 3 years in the SEC, he might be a long term answer at C. And if that happens that opens up all kinds of possibilities for the roster. 

Jonny Smythe 

[Don Otreply]

I’ve reconsidered my previous post on this topic and I think the surprise cuts will be Firechans and Bado, they will either be cut or traded to Houston for late round picks…,  🤣🍸🚬

 

nuthin but luv guys,  GO BILLS!!!

[GASabresIUFan]

5 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The problem there is likely if the Bills didn't give him that some other team would have.  One thing I think the Bills and most NFL teams are very good (unlike many poster here) is gauging a players worth and knowing how much to pay someone if they want that player, whether it be re-signing their own or signing a FA, they know what to offer as do most teams.

Teams are terrible at contracts. Jax gave Gabe Davis 24 million in guarantees.  We gave the ancient Von Miller an absurd contract.  The Knox contract was nearly as bad.  It's how we got into cap hell in the first place.  I'm saying this and I have great respect for Beane.  IMHO MVS's contract is one of Beane's mistakes.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Teams are terrible at contracts. Jax gave Gabe Davis 24 million in guarantees.  We gave the ancient Von Miller an absurd contract.  The Knox contract was nearly as bad.  It's how we got into cap hell in the first place.  I'm saying this and I have great respect for Beane.  IMHO MVS's contract is one of Beane's mistakes.

 

That's not my point.  My point is teams are good at gauging what another team will pay for player.  So they either need to sign him for an "absurd" amount or they may lose him.  You either pay what other teams are willing to pay or lose the player.

 

There's also the other side of this, in the past there were players who were FA and Beane waited them out until was able to sign him for what the Bills and other felt he was worth.  They waited until he came down to their level and were able to do that without fear of losing him as others also didn't value him any higher.