Allen's Playoff Stats vs Burrow & Jackson Combined - Not "Inflated..."

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’m legit convinced you don’t actually watch other playoff games.

 

oh yes, Mahomes’ OL has just been elite in the playoffs. It was super elite in the 2020 SB where he had the worst game of his career and got obliterated lol.

 

???

 

Re-read what Rampant Buffalo posted.

“OL… Played well in many other postseason games also” 

 

Many as in most or large number of but not all.

 

The “every” reference was to the three playoffs games against the Bills which I would say is pretty accurate, seeing as the Bills d-line doesn’t seem to get pressure on Mahomes in the postseason and the Chiefs average like 35 ppg in those contests. 

 

 

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

???

 

Re-read what Rampant Buffalo posted.

“OL… Played well in many other postseason games also” 

 

Many as in most or large number of but not all.

 

The “every” reference was to the three playoffs games against the Bills which I would say is pretty accurate, seeing as the Bills d-line doesn’t seem to get pressure on Mahomes in the postseason and the Chiefs average like 35 ppg in those contests. 

 

 

Many other postseason games except his biggest postseason loss in his career in the Super Bowl then? Ok

[BillsVet]

On 7/9/2024 at 6:09 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

Yep but it is galling to have to defend Allen on a Bills message board from the constant attacks that a small minority of posters throw out there. 

 

I have a friend who, when Josh has a bad play references his contract as though he's never allowed to overthrow a receiver or a pick.  It's just massive cognitive bias.   

 

And, for a fan base that struggled for 25 years to find a franchise QB, it's amazing how quick people are to highlight Josh's mistakes.     

 

For reference, Pat Mahomes had his highest interception % since he began starting in 2018.  It's not a coincidence that he probably had the worst group of receivers to work with either.  

 

There's going to be a lot more wailing and gnashing of teeth this year about Josh.  Nor is he immune from criticism, but the idea that a QB can perform with a sub-par group of receivers will show up early this season.  Inevitably, it'll lead to people criticizing the QB without looking deeper to see the true causes behind lackluster offensive performance.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Many other postseason games except his biggest postseason loss in his career in the Super Bowl then? Ok

which only goes to show he’s human just like Allen and has the same issues when entire units of his team are a no-show.

 

but again, Rampant Buffalo didn’t say anything that wasn’t factually accurate.

[Mr. WEO]

who has ever claimed Lamar Jackson is a better playoff QB than Allen??

 

wtf?

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

who has ever claimed Lamar Jackson is a better playoff QB than Allen??

 

wtf?

 

I'm sure you can always find someone on the internet to say pretty much anything.   However, yeah, its a classic straw man argument.

 

[Alphadawg7]

Someone posted these stat comparisons with Allen and Lamar - And its crazy to think Lamar has 2 MVPs to Allens none.  

• Seasons with 4000 passing yards:
  • Allen - 4 
  • Lamar - 0
• Seasons with 8+ rushing TD's
  • Allen - 4
  • Lamar - 0
• Games with 300 yards + 50 rush yards
  • Allen - 25
  • Lamar - 7
• Games with 2 or more TD passes
  • Allen - 54
  • Lamar - 32
• Games with 3 or more TD passes
  • Allen - 23
  • Lamar - 19
• Games with 2 or more rush TD's
  • Allen - 9
  • Lamar - 6
• Games with 1 passing + 1 rushing TD
  • Allen - 44
  • Lamar -23
• 300 yard passing games
  • Allen - 25
  • Lamar - 4
• AFC Player of the Week
  • Allen - 12
  • Lamar - 10
• Games they scored 0 passing TD's
  • Allen - 14
  • Lamar - 23 (Balt still won FIFTEEN of those games)

 

 

Edited July 12 by Alphadawg7

[Rampant Buffalo]

On 7/10/2024 at 8:30 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think we have to acknowledge that the drops in that Chiefs game didn't result in 160 less yards.   The hyperbole about that has gotten a little out of hand.

 

For example, the most egregious example was the dropped deep ball to Diggs on the Bills last drive.    They proceeded to advance much further than that before two poor passes/well defensed plays lead to the game-losing missed field goal.

 

They only had 3 drives the entire game that didn't result in a TD or a FG attempt and they didn't all end because of drops.   They advanced past much of that loss.  There weren't that many more yards actually left on the table from said drops.  

 

Your post rings true.

 

There are two separate questions here. 1) To what extent did the drops affect the success of the offense? 2) To what extent did the drops affect Allen's numbers for that game?

 

Your post pertains to the first question. You've made solid points with respect to that first question. But, this is a QB comparison thread. Unlike question 1), question 2) is highly relevant to a QB comparison. 160 yards of drops are absolutely going to murder a QB's numbers, especially his yards per attempt and QB rating. Every last yard of those drops is dragging down Allen's numbers. Allen is swimming across a lake, and that game is the 160 pound ball and chain affixed to his ankle. He averaged 4.something yards per attempt that game, which is really bad. Give him back those 160 yards of drops, and guess what? That really bad 4.something number goes completely out the window, and gets replaced with a much better number.

 

I repeat: the WRs played badly enough in that game, that Allen's performance cannot be meaningfully evaluated. That game should be dropped from any numbers-based QB comparison.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Your post rings true.

 

There are two separate questions here. 1) To what extent did the drops affect the success of the offense? 2) To what extent did the drops affect Allen's numbers for that game?

 

Your post pertains to the first question. You've made solid points with respect to that first question. But, this is a QB comparison thread. Unlike question 1), question 2) is highly relevant to a QB comparison. 160 yards of drops are absolutely going to murder a QB's numbers, especially his yards per attempt and QB rating. Every last yard of those drops is dragging down Allen's numbers. Allen is swimming across a lake, and that game is the 160 pound ball and chain affixed to his ankle. He averaged 4.something yards per attempt that game, which is really bad. Give him back those 160 yards of drops, and guess what? That really bad 4.something number goes completely out the window, and gets replaced with a much better number.

 

I repeat: the WRs played badly enough in that game, that Allen's performance cannot be meaningfully evaluated. That game should be dropped from any numbers-based QB comparison.

 

 

I very much agree with the general premise that the WR sucked in that game and that it impacts Allen's statistical performance.

 

But it's not the bulk yards.   That's misleading data.   They made much of that back and it didn't impact them on the scoreboard the way it makes it sound.

 

That should be the punctuation of the statistical argument not the opener.

 

You are correct in the above post,  that it's really the efficiency data that gets skewed by the WR poor performance.  That's where the argument should go.   But all people want to bring up is the bulk yardage and that opens the door to argue against that.   

 

It sort of reminds me of the narratives about "not passing for 300 yards" back in 2015 and 2016 when the Bills were leading the NFL both in big plays and rushing and were scoring well.    You can't pass for a TD when you've already run the ball for said TD.   But people would argue that those offense's were bad.   They were actually the best offense's the Bills had since the early 1990's.

[Rampant Buffalo]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I very much agree with the general premise that the WR sucked in that game and that it impacts Allen's statistical performance.

 

But it's not the bulk yards.   That's misleading data.   They made much of that back and it didn't impact them on the scoreboard the way it makes it sound.

 

That should be the punctuation of the statistical argument not the opener.

 

You are correct in the above post,  that it's really the efficiency data that gets skewed by the WR poor performance.  That's where the argument should go.   But all people want to bring up is the bulk yardage and that opens the door to argue against that.   

 

It sort of reminds me of the narratives about "not passing for 300 yards" back in 2015 and 2016 when the Bills were leading the NFL both in big plays and rushing and were scoring well.    You can't pass for a TD when you've already run the ball for said TD.   But people would argue that those offense's were bad.   They were actually the best offense's the Bills had since the early 1990's.

 

Well said.

 

I agree with you that you can't just add back 160 bulk yards to Allen's stats. On the other hand, he probably deserves at least some of those bulk yards. Also, when calculating yards per attempt or QB rating, I'd argue he should get back every last one of those 160 yards of drops.

 

Statistically adjusting that game to account for the drops could lead to debates about the proper methodology. Better just to drop that game before doing any comparison.

[GoBills808]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Someone posted these stat comparisons with Allen and Lamar - And its crazy to think Lamar has 2 MVPs to Allens none.  

• Seasons with 4000 passing yards:
  • Allen - 4 
  • Lamar - 0
• Seasons with 8+ rushing TD's
  • Allen - 4
  • Lamar - 0
• Games with 300 yards + 50 rush yards
  • Allen - 25
  • Lamar - 7
• Games with 2 or more TD passes
  • Allen - 54
  • Lamar - 32
• Games with 3 or more TD passes
  • Allen - 23
  • Lamar - 19
• Games with 2 or more rush TD's
  • Allen - 9
  • Lamar - 6
• Games with 1 passing + 1 rushing TD
  • Allen - 44
  • Lamar -23
• 300 yard passing games
  • Allen - 25
  • Lamar - 4
• AFC Player of the Week
  • Allen - 12
  • Lamar - 10
• Games they scored 0 TD's
  • Allen - 14
  • Lamar - 23 (Balt still won FIFTEEN of those games)

 

 

that last stat doesnt seem possible for either player

[MRW]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

that last stat doesnt seem possible for either player

 

For Allen specifically, the offense was terrible his first year and scraping its way up toward average in his second, so I can definitely believe it. Even over the past 4 years when the offense has been great there have been bad stretches.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, MRW said:

 

For Allen specifically, the offense was terrible his first year and scraping its way up toward average in his second, so I can definitely believe it. Even over the past 4 years when the offense has been great there have been bad stretches.

Im having a very hard time believing Allen has 14 games w no TDs

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 7/9/2024 at 9:10 AM, Sweats said:

I watched a discussion last night on the NFL network about Lamar Jackson and how dominant he has been since coming into the NFL.......i was like, what?!?

No seriously, what?!?

I just couldn't wrap my head around the discussion.

 

I've always liked Burrow. He was the catalyst that sparked the LSU offense in college and has yet to ignite that powder keg in Cincy, but he's more of what i would call the "wild card"......just never know which Burrow is showing up every week.

 

Now, JA on the other hand and i'm not just saying this cause he's a Bill, but the guy is the whole package. He might not get full credit for what he's doing in the league right now, but people will see it when he's going into the Hall of Fame.

The dude is a "baller".

He is a generational, one-of-a-kind talent.....think about it, who in the history of the league could you make him a comparison to? I honestly can't think of any other person in the history of the NFL that would be comparable to what we see from JA each and every week......not flashes every once in awhile, but consistently every week.

And that alone, should make him the top QB in the league right now and first ballot Hall of Famer.

I think a lot of the hate for Josh Allen that comes from other fans is simply jealousy. I’ve noticed KC fans actually have the most respect for him because they already have their guy and it is must-see TV when these 2 teams play. They see what Josh can do when all cylinders are firing and know he had Mahomes beat in the playoffs if not for the biggest defensive collapse in post-season history and Tyler Bass doing his best Scott Norwood impression.
 

Baltimore fans have to be getting frustrated at this point. Lamar is probably the best running QB of all time (Josh is the best dual threat…fight me) but if Lamar doesn’t DRASTICALLY improves as a passer, he isn’t going to be nearly the threat he is now when he gets up there in age. I think he is what he is at this point. Baltimore’s best chance is to run him into the ground the next 3-4 years and hopefully get a title out of it. 

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, MRW said:

 

For Allen specifically, the offense was terrible his first year and scraping its way up toward average in his second, so I can definitely believe it. Even over the past 4 years when the offense has been great there have been bad stretches.

 

I would bet (haven't actually checked, just a guess) that the majority of those games for Allen were in his first 2 seasons when the roster was weak and he was ascending still.  

[DrBob806]

Why do people get worked up about this stuff?

 

There's 32 teams, and about 10-12 standout QBs, just like always. 

9 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I think he is what he is at this point. Baltimore’s best chance is to run him into the ground the next 3-4 years and hopefully get a title out of it. 

What? 

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would bet (haven't actually checked, just a guess) that the majority of those games for Allen were in his first 2 seasons when the roster was weak and he was ascending still.  

You'd bet that the QB who is tops in the league for generating TDs has almost an entire season's worth of games where he didn't score a single one? I'd take that action

[MRW]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You'd bet that the QB who is tops in the league for generating TDs has almost an entire season's worth of games where he didn't score a single one? I'd take that action

 

Looks like I was way off on my thinking on this one, even in those first 2 years before Allen emerged he scored a TD in almost all his games. Maybe you get to this number if you only look at passing TDs (there were several games where he had no passing TDs but 1+ rushing TDs) or erroneously include games where he was out injured and Peterman/Barkley/Anderson were filling in for him. So now I'm curious as to where this number actually comes from and if it is just plain wrong or misinterpreted.

 

Under the most generous reading:

2018: Ravens (Allen didn't start but did play)

Packers

Texans (Allen started but got knocked out of the game)

 

2019: Jets (season finale, Allen got the "start")

 

2020: Jets

 

2021: Jaguars

 

2022: None

 

2023: None

 

So that's 6, and a couple of those are a stretch as to whether they should even count. So yeah, no idea where that 14 number comes from.

[Alphadawg7]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You'd bet that the QB who is tops in the league for generating TDs has almost an entire season's worth of games where he didn't score a single one? I'd take that action

Literally now what I said.  Assuming the stat is accurate, I said I would bet those games mostly accrued in his first 2 seasons.  
 

If you have an issue with the stat, then either go check yourself or take it up with the person who published these stats that I just simply shared here.

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, MRW said:

 

Looks like I was way off on my thinking on this one, even in those first 2 years before Allen emerged he scored a TD in almost all his games. Maybe you get to this number if you only look at passing TDs (there were several games where he had no passing TDs but 1+ rushing TDs) or erroneously include games where he was out injured and Peterman/Barkley/Anderson were filling in for him. So now I'm curious as to where this number actually comes from and if it is just plain wrong or misinterpreted.

 

Under the most generous reading:

2018: Ravens (Allen didn't start but did play)

Packers

Texans (Allen started but got knocked out of the game)

 

2019: Jets (season finale, Allen got the "start")

 

2020: Jets

 

2021: Jaguars

 

2022: None

 

2023: None

 

So that's 6, and a couple of those are a stretch as to whether they should even count. So yeah, no idea where that 14 number comes from.

I count 4

 

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Literally now what I said.  Assuming the stat is accurate, I said I would bet those games mostly accrued in his first 2 seasons.  
 

If you have an issue with the stat, then either go check yourself or take it up with the person who published these stats that I just simply shared here.

Just did and it's not even close to accurate