Allen's Playoff Stats vs Burrow & Jackson Combined - Not "Inflated..."

[Alphadawg7]

52 minutes ago, folz said:

 

This is a bit off-topic from the thread, but you bring up a really good point Alphadawg. We have been a very good team...but more of what we used to call a "finesse" team. Very skilled players, but we weren't very big across the roster, we didn't have a strong/bruising run game (outside of Allen), our defense was always excellent stat-wise but they never put fear into anyone (really hard-hitting, etc.), etc. 

 

We got manhandled by KC in the championship game in 2020 and the Bengals (regardless of all the surrounding circumstances which of course played a huge part) bullied us a bit despite Buffalo probably being the more talented team overall. I think we have had an issue with teams that get physical, especially in bad weather that affected the passing game. Think of the New England wind game. We were such a better team than they were, but when the wind took away our passing game, they out-physicaled us.

 

I see this "transition" year, not as a "rebuilding" year, but as a true transitioning year---we are transitioning from one style of team to another. I think the Bills will look a good bit different from what we have seen the past handful of years. The offense will have a stronger run-focus, more long, sustained drives rather than trying to get lots of chunk plays (though with Josh Allen, those will still be there). Bigger, stronger WRs. Davis brings a toughness to the backfield. As for defense, IF Miller gets back to form, that could help. And as good as Poyer and Hyde were, you worried about trying to beat them, not getting your head taken off by them. Rapp is a bit reckless, but man will he throw his body at folks, and Bishop is a pretty hard-hitter. Maybe that helps too.

 

Of course, getting tougher is partly personnel and partly coaching. Can McDermott, Babich, and Brady bring out the dog in this team? I sure hope so.

 

 

 

As to the topic at hand, all these talking heads need to ask themselves is if their team needed a playoff win, which QB are you actually picking to start?

 

playoff game averages:

Josh: 65% completion, 328.6 yards, 2.5 TDs, 0.4 INTs

Joe: 67.3% completion, 275.3 yards, 1.43 TDs, 0.57 INTs

Lamar: 57.44% completion, 307.5 yards, 1.5 TDs, 1 INTs

 

In 7 of his 10 playoff games, Allen had 3 or more TDs

In 7 of his 10 playoff games, Josh didn't throw an interception 

 

Heck, in Josh's 5 playoff losses, he averaged 335.2 yards/game, 2.2 TDs, and 0.4 INTs. Hard even to use his losses as an argument that he isn't good or has been better than Lamar and Burrow in the playoffs.

 

Agree with all of this, very good follow up post and verbatim how I see it as well.  This is why I said leading up to the draft if people just took the time to listen to Beane all offseason in all his PC's and Interviews, they would have understood this was what Beane was looking to do.  He mentioned so many times about guys with leadership, guys who play with an edge, toughness.  While a lot of our moves had to be done for cap reasons and to get the team younger, the rebuild plan was to bring in guys that had more size, toughness, and an edge to their game.  

 

Now this doesn't mean every move is going to prove to work out perfectly, but there is a purpose to how Beane drafted and the guys he looked at in FA.  And now we will be going into next offseason with cap flexibility and armed with 2 second round picks and 3 fourth round picks for him to continue building towards being a tougher team and better team.  

 

Because Von took a pay cut and not a restructure, we can, and almost certainly will, get out of Vons deal next year.  So I expect Beane to be aggressive either in acquiring a premiere edge rusher in FA or trade, or using some of that draft capital to try and get one in the draft.  We need our own Chris Jones to be able to make the plays when Allen delivers the defense a lead to protect late in playoff games.

[Rampant Buffalo]

9 hours ago, folz said:

Heck, in Josh's 5 playoff losses, he averaged 335.2 yards/game, 2.2 TDs, and 0.4 INTs.

 

Any time your QB is averaging well over 300 yards per game, with 5.5 TDs for every INT, it's completely, 100% unreasonable to expect your defense to keep you in the game. Those five playoff losses were 100% on the offense. The McDermott/Frazier defense did just fine, and didn't let the team down in any, any way.

[Doc Brown]

20 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Any time your QB is averaging well over 300 yards per game, with 5.5 TDs for every INT, it's completely, 100% unreasonable to expect your defense to keep you in the game. Those five playoff losses were 100% on the offense. The McDermott/Frazier defense did just fine, and didn't let the team down in any, any way.

I know this is sarcasm but to really simplify things.

 

-Josh Allen played great in 2 of the 4 playoff losses since he became elite in 2020. 

-The defense was good in 0 of the 4 playoff losses since 2020 and the offense was the only reason they had a chance in two of them.

 

I know I'm beating a dead horse with this take but the only beef with Josh in the wins is the Shakir decision with Diggs wide open underneath given the circumstances of that game.  Low percentage throw even if Chris Jones doesn't impact it.  TERRIBLE situational awareness.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

20 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Obviously...Allen's best game rivals the best in NFL history...the other 2 don't even come close to that.

And people forget New England had the #2 defense that year. Bills had the 1st

[CSBill]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:00 PM, BigDingus said:

So I recently got a bit irritated after hearing a segment that mentioned Allen's playoff stats being "inflated" due to the Pats game... as if that's the reason his stats look so good overall.

 

They were also talking about Burrow & Lamar, but they seem to always get the benefit of the doubt due to Lamar's 2 x MVPs & Burrow's SB appearance & beating the Chiefs. So I decided I'd comb through all their stats & see how "inflated" Allen's stats truly are.

 

Allen (Without Pats Game) - 9 Games:

- 63.2 % Comp. / 2,912 TOT YDS / 323.5 TOT YPG / 22 TDs / 4 INTs / 95.5 RTG / 61.5 QBR

 

Burrow - 7 Games:

- 67.3% Comp. / 1,927 TOT YDS / 275.3 TOT YPG / 9 TDs / 4 INTs / 93.8 RTG / 52.6 QBR

 

Jackson - 6 Games:

- 57.4% Comp. / 1,845 TOT YDS / 307.5 TOT YPG / 9 TDS / 6 INTs / 75.7 RTG / 50.6 QBR

 

*** Burrow has a higher completion percentage, and that's it. Jackson comes in dead last in every category.***

 

 

 

Ok,  now a hater might say "well Josh played 2 more games than Burrow & 3 more than Lamar!" so in that case, I'll combine the 2 and do their average over 13 games, AND I'll do another where I just cherry pick each player's BEST avg stat for each category:

 

 

Burrow + Jackson (Combined Totals & Averages) - 13 Games:

- 62.4% Comp. / 3,772 TOT YDS / 290.2 TOT YPG / 18 Total TDs / 10 Total INTs / 84.8 RTG / 51.6 RTG

 

***In 4 more games, they average less YPG, have less TDs & more than double the INTs***

 

Burrow + Jackson (Cherry Picked BEST Averages):

- 67.3% Comp. / 307.5 TOT YPG / 1.5 TDs Per Game / 0.6 INTs Per Game / 93.8 RTG / 52.6 QBR

 

Allen's Averages for same stats (Without Pats Game):

- 63.2% Comp. / 323.5 TOT YPG / 2.4 TDs Per Game / 0.4 INTs Per Game / 95.5 RTG / 61.5 QBR

 

*** Even when cherry-picking the best stats of both Lamar & Burrow OR using their combined numbers, Josh has more total TDs, more TDs per game, more YPG, less INTs per game, a higher passer rating and a higher QBR!***

 

 

In conclusion, it's clear as day that no matter how you break it down, Allen has played SIGNIFICANTLY better than Jackson & Burrow. Again, this is WITHOUT the Pats game to "inflate" his numbers. That's 5 x TDs, 350+ total yards, a 130 passer rating & 98.8 QBR not accounted for, yet he still out performs Burrow & Jackson's individual and combined totals & averages.

 

The END!

 

Did you send this to them? Surely, they will want to correct themselves and offer a public apology once they get the facts.

[Sweats]

I watched a discussion last night on the NFL network about Lamar Jackson and how dominant he has been since coming into the NFL.......i was like, what?!?

No seriously, what?!?

I just couldn't wrap my head around the discussion.

 

I've always liked Burrow. He was the catalyst that sparked the LSU offense in college and has yet to ignite that powder keg in Cincy, but he's more of what i would call the "wild card"......just never know which Burrow is showing up every week.

 

Now, JA on the other hand and i'm not just saying this cause he's a Bill, but the guy is the whole package. He might not get full credit for what he's doing in the league right now, but people will see it when he's going into the Hall of Fame.

The dude is a "baller".

He is a generational, one-of-a-kind talent.....think about it, who in the history of the league could you make him a comparison to? I honestly can't think of any other person in the history of the NFL that would be comparable to what we see from JA each and every week......not flashes every once in awhile, but consistently every week.

And that alone, should make him the top QB in the league right now and first ballot Hall of Famer.

[BillsVet]

7 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

Any time your QB is averaging well over 300 yards per game, with 5.5 TDs for every INT, it's completely, 100% unreasonable to expect your defense to keep you in the game. Those five playoff losses were 100% on the offense. The McDermott/Frazier defense did just fine, and didn't let the team down in any, any way.

 

Josh didn't get the memo to score slower so as to protect the defense in those playoff losses.  The good news is, now they have the offense in place which will eat clock, be safe, and therefore reduce turnovers.  The biggest benefit is, this helps keep the defense healthy and we all know defense wins championships when complemented with a plodding, predictable and ultimately safe offense.  It's how teams win in the modern era now: by being safe and risk-averse.    

[Rampant Buffalo]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:00 PM, BigDingus said:

Allen (Without Pats Game) - 9 Games:

 

 

Two potential reasons to throw out the Pats game. 1) You could argue the Pats didn't have a good defense. Except that argument would be wrong, because their defense was ranked #2 in the NFL. 2) Josh Allen received good performances from his OL, his WRs, and his OC. If someone wants to throw out the Pats game out for that reason, fine. But if someone is doing that, that person also needs to throw out any postseason game where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson received good performances from their OL, WRs, and OCs. 

 

There is, however, a playoff game which I believe should be dropped from the stats: the Bills' most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs. In that game, Bills WRs had 160 yards of drops. That's going to mess with a QB's stats, hard core. Like, really pulverize the QB's stats, through no fault of his own. Is there someone reading this thread who believes that 160 yards of drops is a perfectly normal, everyday occurrence? Fine! Let that person step forward, and show me the playoff games where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson had something similar happen to them!

 

Bottom line: Allen's receivers played badly enough in that game, as to make it impossible to meaningfully evaluate Allen's performance.

[DCofNC]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:57 PM, MJS said:

Wait, who made this claim? It is a ridiculous farce of a claim. For one thing, why should a QB have to remove his best game from his stats? That game happened. For another thing, Josh Allen has been incredible in the playoffs almost without fail. Anyone who doesn't know that has not been paying attention.

 

That's one of the indicators that he is indeed an elite QB. He brings his best game in the playoffs, when it matters most.

Have to accept his worst and ignore a dominant game to keep the numbers close, it’s almost like reality doesn’t matter anymore.

[Mikie2times]

I don't think we should do things like subtract games out just better bracket the context. 

 

A higher % of Allen's playoff games have occurred in the wild card round vs any other QB being discussed here. 

 

Burrow 2 of 7 are wild card

Jackson 2 of 6 are wild card

Mahomes 2 of 18 are wild card

Allen 5 of 10 are wild card

 

I posted the stats for the divisional round or later upthread. Not perfect, but better. Jackson is clearly the last one at the table for this. Allen and Burrow is more of a preference in what you want. Mahomes has been better than all of them especially considering his work is so heavily based on even later than the divisional round.   

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Two potential reasons to throw out the Pats game. 1) You could argue the Pats didn't have a good defense. Except that argument would be wrong, because their defense was ranked #2 in the NFL. 2) Josh Allen received good performances from his OL, his WRs, and his OC. If someone wants to throw out the Pats game out for that reason, fine. But if someone is doing that, that person also needs to throw out any postseason game where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson received good performances from their OL, WRs, and OCs. 

 

There is, however, a playoff game which I believe should be dropped from the stats: the Bills' most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs. In that game, Bills WRs had 160 yards of drops. That's going to mess with a QB's stats, hard core. Like, really pulverize the QB's stats, through no fault of his own. Is there someone reading this thread who believes that 160 yards of drops is a perfectly normal, everyday occurrence? Fine! Let that person step forward, and show me the playoff games where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson had something similar happen to them!

 

Bottom line: Allen's receivers played badly enough in that game, as to make it impossible to meaningfully evaluate Allen's performance.

You forgot the most important reason to throw out the Patriots game- it makes our resident chiefs fans feel less insecure

[TheBrownBear]

I'm over it. I really don't give a flip about the national narrative at this point. We know our guy is a generational/GOAT-level talent.  We just need the entire team, particularly the defense and coaching, to sack up and help him get it done in the playoffs for once.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm over it. I really don't give a flip about the national narrative at this point. We know our guy is a generational/GOAT-level talent.  We just need the entire team, particularly the defense and coaching, to sack up and help him get it done in the playoffs for once.

Yep but it is galling to have to defend Allen on a Bills message board from the constant attacks that a small minority of posters throw out there. 

[Rampant Buffalo]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

You forgot the most important reason to throw out the Patriots game- it makes our resident chiefs fans feel less insecure

 

Let's say you get a media talking head, with just a tiny amount of surface knowledge about statistics. That talking head might be a little tempted to throw out the Patriots game. It's going to look like an outlier.

 

A little digging would reveal that Allen received good performances from his WRs, his OL, and his OC in that game. Getting all three things to happen is unquestionably an outlier as far as Josh Allen's career is concerned. But, those things are not an outlier for a guy like Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has received brilliant offensive coaching for each of his playoff games. He's had good to excellent play from his receiving targets, every single time. His OL has certainly played very well during all his playoff games against the Bills, and has played well in many other postseason games also.

 

If someone wants to compare Allen's postseason play to that of Mahomes, I'd argue that the Pats game and the 13 seconds game are the most relevant, the most meaningful. During those two games, the support Allen received was the most similar to the support Mahomes usually gets.

[FireChans]

11 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Let's say you get a media talking head, with just a tiny amount of surface knowledge about statistics. That talking head might be a little tempted to throw out the Patriots game. It's going to look like an outlier.

 

A little digging would reveal that Allen received good performances from his WRs, his OL, and his OC in that game. Getting all three things to happen is unquestionably an outlier as far as Josh Allen's career is concerned. But, those things are not an outlier for a guy like Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has received brilliant offensive coaching for each of his playoff games. He's had good to excellent play from his receiving targets, every single time. His OL has certainly played very well during all his playoff games against the Bills, and has played well in many other postseason games also.

 

If someone wants to compare Allen's postseason play to that of Mahomes, I'd argue that the Pats game and the 13 seconds game are the most relevant, the most meaningful. During those two games, the support Allen received was the most similar to the support Mahomes usually gets.

I’m legit convinced you don’t actually watch other playoff games.

 

oh yes, Mahomes’ OL has just been elite in the playoffs. It was super elite in the 2020 SB where he had the worst game of his career and got obliterated lol.

[Stank_Nasty]

Nobody WILLS his defense to multiple big time postseason stops/turnovers and then drives 19 yds for a game tying/winning FG like Joe Burrow does…. 
 

If only Josh’s name was “Joe” and he wore quirky pregame fits. Then we could naturally attach cool nicknames to him and it would obviously help our defense not be a complete postseason liability. 

Edited July 10 by Stank_Nasty

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Is anybody really doubting Allen in the playoffs? 

I mean even the most staunch McD defenders have to be willing to admit Allen has carried them in the playoffs and the defense has collapsed repeatedly. 

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Two potential reasons to throw out the Pats game. 1) You could argue the Pats didn't have a good defense. Except that argument would be wrong, because their defense was ranked #2 in the NFL. 2) Josh Allen received good performances from his OL, his WRs, and his OC. If someone wants to throw out the Pats game out for that reason, fine. But if someone is doing that, that person also needs to throw out any postseason game where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson received good performances from their OL, WRs, and OCs. 

 

There is, however, a playoff game which I believe should be dropped from the stats: the Bills' most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs. In that game, Bills WRs had 160 yards of drops. That's going to mess with a QB's stats, hard core. Like, really pulverize the QB's stats, through no fault of his own. Is there someone reading this thread who believes that 160 yards of drops is a perfectly normal, everyday occurrence? Fine! Let that person step forward, and show me the playoff games where Mahomes, Burrow, or Lamar Jackson had something similar happen to them!

 

Bottom line: Allen's receivers played badly enough in that game, as to make it impossible to meaningfully evaluate Allen's performance.

 

 

I think we have to acknowledge that the drops in that Chiefs game didn't result in 160 less yards.   The hyperbole about that has gotten a little out of hand.

 

For example, the most egregious example was the dropped deep ball to Diggs on the Bills last drive.    They proceeded to advance much further than that before two poor passes/well defensed plays lead to the game-losing missed field goal.

 

They only had 3 drives the entire game that didn't result in a TD or a FG attempt and they didn't all end because of drops.   They advanced past much of that loss.  There weren't that many more yards actually left on the table from said drops.  

[ganesh]

On 7/8/2024 at 8:10 PM, julian said:

In the playoffs…

 Mahomes is Mahomes

 Burrow has been good

 Lamar has been bad

Allen's TEAM has been an enigma.   Diggs has disappeared in the playoffs.  Gabe was not consistent. Knox disappeared in the playoffs.  The Whole defense was soft in the playoffs.  Coaching was absurd!

[julian]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

Allen's TEAM has been an enigma.   Diggs has disappeared in the playoffs.  Gabe was not consistent. Knox disappeared in the playoffs.  The Whole defense was soft in the playoffs.  Coaching was absurd!

Yup… Allen has been the only consistent level raiser in the playoffs for the Bills.