THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - A Roster for McDermott to Work With

[BillsVet]

 

2 hours ago, eball said:

I really don’t see the point in comparing the 2017 and 2024 rosters.  The franchise is in a completely different position now.

 

The comparison with 2021 is much more relevant, and I think there is a chance this year’s roster compares favorably when we look back after this season.

 

The keys are going to be which young players step up and which veteran additions meet expectations.

 

 

Comparison really should be 2020 - the team which made the AFC Championship Game. 

 

Still, for those who follow the NFL in general (and clearly not as many on TSW do), the game is evolving rapidly.  What worked a few seasons ago isn't necessarily going to work 4-5 years later, but alas...

 

the 2024 team is not constructed like 2020 nor as talented offensively.  Yes, there were some areas that team was not as good, but the end result is what they should be focusing on achieving and exceeding: winning in the post-season.  

 

Buffalo's big issues above the WR fray is staying offensively with or ahead of their primary AFC competition.  And, doing so as you note using some youth to keep cap spending down.  

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Another Shaw gem.  I would comment on the safety issue.  I think McD knows how to coach DBs extremely well, and when Hyde and Poyer arrived I recall thinking meh- just a couple of guys.  But under McD’s tutelage they became arguably the best safety tandem in the league.  I think he will do similar things with Rapp and Edwards , and eventually Bishop.

 

I’m praying Bishop gets up to speed quickly, because having Rapp out there scares me. Heck, it should probably scare his teammates too. He just seems to be looking to hit something…anything….anywhere and any time.

 

But yes, I trust these coaches to put a good defensive backfield out there. 

 

.

Edited July 5 by Augie

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

I’m praying Bishop gets up to speed quickly, because having Rapp out there scares me. Heck, it should probably scare his teammates too. He just seems to be looking to hit something…anything….anywhere and any time.

 

But yes, I trust these coaches to put a good defensive backfield out there. 

 

.

Yeah, I too worry about Rapp.  I have the same hopes for Bishop.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Another Shaw gem.  I would comment on the safety issue.  I think McD knows how to coach DBs extremely well, and when Hyde and Poyer arrived I recall thinking meh- just a couple of guys.  But under McD’s tutelage they became arguably the best safety tandem in the league.  I think he will do similar things with Rapp and Edwards , and eventually Bishop.

I remember liking Hyde in Green Bay and was happy when the Bills got him.  Not so much Poyer.  My recollection is that some fans had little to say about Hyde but liked Poyer.  Either way, they were two late-round picks whose team did not renew their contracts.  Rapp and Edwards are the same (both higher picks than either Hyde or Poyer), and Bishop sounds like he has real potential.  I think, absent injury, we're going to be seeing some high-end safety play come November.  And although I don't have high hopes, there's even a chance that Hamlin will raise his game. 

[Figster]

5 hours ago, eball said:

I really don’t see the point in comparing the 2017 and 2024 rosters.  The franchise is in a completely different position now.

 

The comparison with 2021 is much more relevant, and I think there is a chance this year’s roster compares favorably when we look back after this season.

 

The keys are going to be which young players step up and which veteran additions meet expectations.

 

I realize we have Josh Allen now, but when you say completely different position. How so? New Coaches at OC and DC and many new faces on the 2024 roster. Bills QB's also lost their number 1 target/WR traded away by Beane.

 

More similarities then you think... 

[Kwai San]

On 7/4/2024 at 11:15 AM, hondo in seattle said:

 

Interesting comparison.  Looking at the '17 roster now, I don't know how McD got that motlely crew into the playoffs.

 

There is so much uncertainty in every offseason but this one more than most.  At this point in the offseason, speculating about the roster is a Rorschak Test.  I learn more about the person sharing their opinion than about the players.   I can see, for example, that Shaw is an open-minded optimist while FireChans is a doomsday curmodgeon.  

 

There's a saying in India, "When a pick-pocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets."  Likewise, when a hungry man in America drives down a street, all he sees is restaurants.  When a horny man drives down a street, all he sees is... well, never mind.

 

The optimists amongst us keep finding reasons to be optimistic.  The pessimist mafiosas keep finding reasons to grumble.  I'm a registered Independent but lean optimist.  I can easily find reasons why this year's receiving corps, OL, LBs, etc will be good.  But, in the end, I really have no freaking idea.  And as smart as all of us are, I think there's going to be some humble pie to eat by season's end.  Each year gives us surprises and this football season will be very interesting.  

 

 

 

Well said @hondo in seattle, well said.

[smward8]

Great insight into the difference between starting a rebuild when you have to make big changes to now, where the changes are more focused.  

  As Bills fans, we need to be prepared for 3 phases next season:

1 - Lots of mistakes, some will costs wins as the new guys get familiar

2 - Defense gels and keeps us in games and maybe wins one or two

3 - The whole team gels and we win out

 

This should sound a little like last season. 

 

Also, I suspect Allen's numbers will compare to last year in terms of attempts and completions, but the distribution will be a lot different.  I can see 4 or 5 guys with 40-60 catches each, similar spread on yards and TDs.  We saw this late last year when Allen started really spreading the ball around.   

Can this staff and team come together really quickly?  I hope so

[Rampant Buffalo]

On 7/4/2024 at 9:43 AM, Shaw66 said:

Happy Independence Day!

 

Thinking about whether this is a playoff team and possibly a serious contender, I began to think about the first time McDermott went to the playoffs - 2017.  So, I compared the rosters:-

 

RB      LeSean McCoy*           James Cook

FB      Patrick DiMarco           Reggie Gilliam/Dawson Knox

WR     Kelvin Benjamin           Curtis Samuel/Chase Claypool

WR     Deonte Thompson      Shakir/Keon Coleman/Marquez Valdez-Scantling

TE      Charles Clay            Dalton Kincaid

LT       Dion Dawkins          Deon Dawkins

LG      Richie Incognito*     David Edwards

C        Eric Wood     Connor McGovern

RG     Vlad Ducasse           O'Cyrus Torrence

RT      Jordan Mills     Spencer Brown

                     

LDE    Shaq Lawson            Greg Rousseau

LDT    Kyle Williams           Ed Oliver

RDT   Adolphus Washington           DaQuan Jones

RDE   Jerry Hughes               AJ Epenesa

LLB    Lorenzo Alexander    Taron Johnson

MLB   Preston Brown         Terrel Bernard

RLB    Ramon Humber       Matt Milano

LCB    Tre'Davious White     Rasul Douglas

RCB   E.J. Gaines       Christian Benford

SS      Micah Hyde*    Taylor Rapp

FS      Jordan Poyer     Cole Bishop

 

I like the 2024 roster a lot better.  I’d take Shady, of course, over Cook.  But oline, receivers, dline, I’ll take 2024.  Corners are a wash – White was a rookie, good then, but not yet what he became.  And Hyde and Poyer were in their first season together, first under McDermott – they were no less question marks at the beginning of the season then the current safeties are now.

 

And then, of course, there’s the QB.  If the starting 21 players in 2017 was good enough to make the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at QB, then the starting 21 in 2024 certainly is good enough to go deep into the playoffs with Allen at QB.   

 

I like where the Bills are, rosterwise.  And looking at those two rosters, it reminds me about the reality of the NFL:  Every team, every team, has multiple guys in the lineup where the fans have their fingers crossed, hoping to see the good story and not the bad story.  I've watched a few minutes here and there of games the NFL Network shows in the evening.   Two, three, five, ten years old.  One think I've noticed - how many unrecognizable names there were on good teams.  No teams are loaded with studs; most teams at most positions have guys who are excellent football players fighting every play to execute and stay in the lineup.  A year or two later, they're gone, replaced with a new guy fighting every play. 

 

I’m not here to argue whether the 2024 roster is better or worse than 2017, and I’m not here to argue that the 2024 Bills roster is as good as it needs to be.  Looking at the collection of names, and the skills of the players, the 2024 Bills roster is a collection solid NFL talent and good rookies with a great quarterback.  How far the team goes will depend on how well the team is coached.  It’s a big year for McDermott.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

It's worth remembering here that the Bills had a different kind of offense in 2017. Greg Roman's empire had fallen a year or two earlier, but the Bills were still using Roman's system. (The same system seen more recently in Baltimore, with Lamar Jackson.) Tyrod Taylor ran a 4.4 in the 40. Fast, but not the insanely fast 4.2 that Lamar Jackson ran. But even at 4.4, Taylor had the speed for Roman's offensive system to be implemented as intended.

 

The goal of Roman's system is to use the running speed of the QB to loosen things up for the RB to run the ball. Also, the QB's running speed loosens up the passing game, making completions easier. The Bills were pretty good on the left side of their OL in 2017, with Dion Dawkins at LT, Richie Incognito at LG, and Eric Wood at C. With Shady McCoy at RB, that was a team that could run the ball.

 

Lamar Jackson has been more successful in the regular season than in the playoffs. The same proved true with Tyrod Taylor. With Taylor under center, the Bills offense was held to just 3 points in the playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

There was merit to that 2017 offense. Yet Beane did a very good thing, in deciding to move on from Tyrod Taylor and that offensive system after that year had ended. I'd much rather have Josh Allen for postseason games than Lamar Jackson, let alone a poor man's Lamar in the form of Tyrod Taylor.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I remember liking Hyde in Green Bay and was happy when the Bills got him.  Not so much Poyer.  My recollection is that some fans had little to say about Hyde but liked Poyer.  Either way, they were two late-round picks whose team did not renew their contracts.  Rapp and Edwards are the same (both higher picks than either Hyde or Poyer), and Bishop sounds like he has real potential.  I think, absent injury, we're going to be seeing some high-end safety play come November.  And although I don't have high hopes, there's even a chance that Hamlin will raise his game. 

 

Hyde was the one I was advocating as soon as he was released for I used to follow Packers very closely.  Poyer was a surprise to me since he played for the Browns and as injured or inactive large portion of time.  Hamlin  I am hoping will be traded due to an injury on another team; maybe Bengals will have an injury for I think he would be happy in Cincinnati.

[Don Otreply]

On 7/4/2024 at 9:48 AM, FireChans said:

The “optimists” are invoking the memories of the 2017 roster backing into the playoffs. 
 

We really are doomed in 2024. 
 

This is exhibit A.

You  always come across as never ever liking the Buffalo Bills,  I can’t remember you ever posting that you like the Bills team, an occasional player, yes, the team not so much, its really no big thing it just strikes me as odd, nuthin but luv😁👍

[Rampant Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Punching Bag said:

 

Hyde was the one I was advocating as soon as he was released for I used to follow Packers very closely.  Poyer was a surprise to me since he played for the Browns and as injured or inactive large portion of time.  Hamlin  I am hoping will be traded due to an injury on another team; maybe Bengals will have an injury for I think he would be happy in Cincinnati.

 

Yeah, I'm sure Hamlin would be thrilled to be traded to Cincinnati. I mean, it's not like he has any bad, Bengals-related memories or anything.

[Punching Bag]

48 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Yeah, I'm sure Hamlin would be thrilled to be traded to Cincinnati. I mean, it's not like he has any bad, Bengals-related memories or anything.

He also has good memories there:

 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/2024/07/02/damar-hamlin-cincinnati-trivia-praises-jeff-ruby/74283930007/

[ganesh]

The biggest difference for McDermott will be to have his DL show up in the playoffs.  If they make a few plays here and there and we are probably calling ourselves SB champions in these 5 years.   Mahomes is something like 75% completion in Playoffs against the Bills with 8 TDs to zero turnovers and the same Mahomes was pedestrian against other Playoff teams or even against the Bills in regular season. 

 

That is the only "If" I would want to see change.

[Shaw66]

On 7/4/2024 at 4:06 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Shaw.... better than 2017???? C'mon. The answer to that question is an obvious and emphatic YES!!!! The Bills had, at best, an average roster in the NFL in 2017. 

 

What I'm glad I found within the last year are good, broader NFL podcasts with actual pundits who watch the film rather than "shock jocks" like Cowherd, Nick Wright, Stephen A, Skip Bayless, etc. In listening to these (and that would include Mina Kimes, Nate Tice, Robert Mayes, Brett Kollman, EJ Snyder and all the guests they have on their shows), you discover that these broader NFL experts have a lot of the same natural questions we do about the Bills because of the roster turnover and switch to Joe Brady, but they pretty universally agree that while Buffalo may take a step back from the "true contender" category, they're still a playoff team and the favorites to win the AFC East. (By the way, what's even more universal among them is that Josh Allen is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and is in a tier of his own)

 

I think that assessment is pretty fair. Even the most optimistic among us at the very least are merely projecting how our WRs and Safeties especially will be. But what those varying experts also agree on and have talked about at various times is how bad Buffalo's roster was in Josh Allen’s rookie year. Yes, I realize that's 2018, not 2017... but there was a lot of carryover.

 

I don't think 2017's roster is remotely comparable with 2024's roster, even discounting the QBs.

Hey, I didn't want to let this go by without commenting on it.   I particularly appreciate the list of commentators who have podcasts worth listening to.  I knew they must be out there, but I never know who they are.  

 

I'm gratified to know that they're saying what I've been thinking - there are plenty of questions, but it's a fundamentally good team.  

 

I started getting excited about this year's team a few weeks ago.  I think this will be another edition of McDermott's we do everything well philosophy.  They're going to run, they're going to pass, and when you key on one, they're going to do the other.  They're going to rush the passer and they're going to take the ball away. 

 

It's going to be fun. 

[Ayjent]

The biggest question is really how they use the talent they have.  Ive always thought that the Bills team that ascended to a contender after selecting Josh was a team built for finesse and speed withan absolute physical specimen wrecking ball at QB.  It has always seemed like they didnt have enough physical players that could impose their will on a game. 

 

Its why they struggled with teams like the Titans at their peak that would just dominate the physical aspect of the game. Id say the Bengals presented that problem for the Bills as well with physical running and a defense that exposed the Bills lack of physical play. The Chiefs defense did as well.

 

Im glad this team looks poised to be more physical.  I think that is the offensive philosophy this year and i think it matches our QB better.  Im not as worried about the WR room because of it. This team is built to impose its will with the threat of a strong physical running game with WRs that can block, win contested catches and good receiving backs and TEs. I look at the team and i see a team built to impose their will and built to score in the red zone.  Whether that works out is the main question. 

[ganesh]

On 7/6/2024 at 7:47 AM, Shaw66 said:

Hey, I didn't want to let this go by without commenting on it.   I particularly appreciate the list of commentators who have podcasts worth listening to.  I knew they must be out there, but I never know who they are.  

 

I'm gratified to know that they're saying what I've been thinking - there are plenty of questions, but it's a fundamentally good team.  

 

I started getting excited about this year's team a few weeks ago.  I think this will be another edition of McDermott's we do everything well philosophy.  They're going to run, they're going to pass, and when you key on one, they're going to do the other.  They're going to rush the passer and they're going to take the ball away. 

 

It's going to be fun. 

The Odds makers also think the same.  They have the Bills pegged in between 5th to 7th to lead in many categories including SB appearance in 2024.   And many of those teams in the top 7 are close to each other that a few balls spinning your way could be our ticket to winning the Lombardi.  

 

The Bills have their own weakness just like any of those top 7 teams and will compete not only in the division but also in the conference and in the NFL.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

The Odds makers also think the same.  They have the Bills pegged in between 5th to 7th to lead in many categories including SB appearance in 2024.   And many of those teams in the top 7 are close to each other that a few balls spinning your way could be our ticket to winning the Lombardi.  

 

The Bills have their own weakness just like any of those top 7 teams and will compete not only in the division but also in the conference and in the NFL.

Yeah.  It's all just another way of saying, "If you have Josh Allen, then reasonable talent and reasonable coaching will make you a contender."

 

Coaching will be the difference this season.  On way or the other.

[PBF81]

On 7/4/2024 at 11:15 AM, hondo in seattle said:

Interesting comparison.  Looking at the '17 roster now, I don't know how McD got that motlely crew into the playoffs.

 

Take a closer look.  

 

To start, we had a -57 point-differential, which I believe is the worst of any team in the league ever to have made the playoffs.  As it was, it wasn't even above-average for the drought era where it ranked behind 11th out of 17 other seasons.  

 

Our strength of schedule was easier than all but four of the drought era seasons.  

 

The only two teams with winning records that we beat that season were the 10-6 Chiefs in Mahomes' rookie season, with Alex Smith at QB, and the Falcons with Ryan at QB, and Taylor outplaying both of them in each game.  Remember, McD got significantly less from Taylor than Ryan did.  

 

Otherwise, we beat the 4-12 Colts, the 5-11 Jets, Broncos, and Bucs, and the 6-10 Raiders and Fins (twice).  Then we were beaten by Bortles and Fournette and the Jags in the Wild-Card round in one of McD's worst offensive performances in his 8 seasons here.  

 

We got the tiebreaker over two other 9-7 teams, the Ravens and Chargers, which posted point-differentials of 92 and 83, for swings of 149 and 140, averages of 9.3 and 8.8 points-per-game, and because of the unlikeliest of 4th-and-12 Dalton to Boyd TD plays in a meaningless game for Cincy.  

 

In fairness, neither the Chargers nor Ravens beat much better teams, but the Chargers, led by Rivers and coached by Anthony Lynn, also in his rookie coaching debut, obliterated us 54-24.  

 

That's how.   

 

We weren't a good team, we were 21st in the league in PD, had a 22nd ranked Scoring Offense, 29th ranked Yardage Offense, an 18th ranked Scoring D, and a 26th ranked Yardage D.   

 

It was largely luck, unprecedented luck.  

 

 

[LeGOATski]

41 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Take a closer look.  

 

To start, we had a -57 point-differential, which I believe is the worst of any team in the league ever to have made the playoffs.  As it was, it wasn't even above-average for the drought era where it ranked behind 11th out of 17 other seasons.  

 

Our strength of schedule was easier than all but four of the drought era seasons.  

 

The only two teams with winning records that we beat that season were the 10-6 Chiefs in Mahomes' rookie season, with Alex Smith at QB, and the Falcons with Ryan at QB, and Taylor outplaying both of them in each game.  Remember, McD got significantly less from Taylor than Ryan did.  

 

Otherwise, we beat the 4-12 Colts, the 5-11 Jets, Broncos, and Bucs, and the 6-10 Raiders and Fins (twice).  Then we were beaten by Bortles and Fournette and the Jags in the Wild-Card round in one of McD's worst offensive performances in his 8 seasons here.  

 

We got the tiebreaker over two other 9-7 teams, the Ravens and Chargers, which posted point-differentials of 92 and 83, for swings of 149 and 140, averages of 9.3 and 8.8 points-per-game, and because of the unlikeliest of 4th-and-12 Dalton to Boyd TD plays in a meaningless game for Cincy.  

 

In fairness, neither the Chargers nor Ravens beat much better teams, but the Chargers, led by Rivers and coached by Anthony Lynn, also in his rookie coaching debut, obliterated us 54-24.  

 

That's how.   

 

We weren't a good team, we were 21st in the league in PD, had a 22nd ranked Scoring Offense, 29th ranked Yardage Offense, an 18th ranked Scoring D, and a 26th ranked Yardage D.   

 

It was largely luck, unprecedented luck.  

 

 

Luck is simply being prepared for the opportunity. 

 

9-7 was the ceiling for that 2017 team and they got themselves there despite the lack of talent and lack of points. That's all coaching. 

 

Just like the 6-0 run to take the division last year was all coaching.

 

There's zero doubt that McDermott knows how to get to the playoffs. It's the championship run that he hasn't figured out.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 7/5/2024 at 3:25 PM, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

It's worth remembering here that the Bills had a different kind of offense in 2017. Greg Roman's empire had fallen a year or two earlier, but the Bills were still using Roman's system. (The same system seen more recently in Baltimore, with Lamar Jackson.) Tyrod Taylor ran a 4.4 in the 40. Fast, but not the insanely fast 4.2 that Lamar Jackson ran. But even at 4.4, Taylor had the speed for Roman's offensive system to be implemented as intended.

 

The goal of Roman's system is to use the running speed of the QB to loosen things up for the RB to run the ball. Also, the QB's running speed loosens up the passing game, making completions easier. The Bills were pretty good on the left side of their OL in 2017, with Dion Dawkins at LT, Richie Incognito at LG, and Eric Wood at C. With Shady McCoy at RB, that was a team that could run the ball.

 

Lamar Jackson has been more successful in the regular season than in the playoffs. The same proved true with Tyrod Taylor. With Taylor under center, the Bills offense was held to just 3 points in the playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

There was merit to that 2017 offense. Yet Beane did a very good thing, in deciding to move on from Tyrod Taylor and that offensive system after that year had ended. I'd much rather have Josh Allen for postseason games than Lamar Jackson, let alone a poor man's Lamar in the form of Tyrod Taylor.

 

Roman's offense has complicated terminology, and always seems to struggle to get play calls in.  There's little to no pre-snap motion unless its a jet motion play.  Uses a ton of condensed formations.  ajority of routes are flys, outs, comebacks, hitches.  There isn't a ton of over the middle throws there because they are the most turnover worthy plays.  The QB athleticism is used for read-option looks, but also to extend plays with scrambles.  Every QB in a roman offense will be near the top of the league in sack% because plays take time to develop vs. the quick read offenses of today.  

 

The 3-point playoff game was the rick dennison offense (kubiak tree) - so a lot out outside zone and play action.  Forcing tyrod to be a pocket passer was never a smart move, and resulted in his worst season as a starter in buffalo.  It also wasn't a particularly good scheme for a back like shady as his strength is not as a one-cut back.