THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - A Roster for McDermott to Work With

[Shaw66]

Happy Independence Day!

 

I don’t read or listen to much of what is said about the Bills at this time of year, because there just isn’t that much known about what these Bills are going to do or about how well they’re going to do it.  Questions everywhere, and whatever some expert says is largely speculation.   We Bills fans think we know, but until the real games start, it just isn’t knowable.

 

Think about it.  Run down the roster and ask your self whether you’re sure the Bills are set at position groups.  

 

QB?  Got it.  Of course.

Running back?  Yes, I guess, but I’m not overwhelmed. 

 

Offensive line?  A lot of “should be ok” answers.  Brown should be.  McGovern should be.  Left guard should be.  The line should be pretty good.

 

Receivers?  Lots of great story lines, but which of those stories will have traction?

 

Dline?  Solid, on the brink of great and also on the brink of average.

 

Linebackers?  Ask the doctors and trainers, because no one ever can know whether guys will come back the same.

 

Corners?  Should be fine.  Should be.

 

Safeties?  Maybe good (three young guys drafted in the second and third rounds should be talented enough) but really, no one knows until we see them and see what McDermott can do with them. 

 

All of that is what makes this season a serious test for McDermott.   Starting with good talent with a lot of questions, can he build a team that wins?.  It is, in fact, the kind of team that McDermott coaches best, a team without stars, a team where almost every player has something to prove. 

 

Thinking about whether this is a playoff team and possibly a serious contender, I began to think about the first time McDermott went to the playoffs - 2017.  So, I compared the rosters:-

 

RB      LeSean McCoy*           James Cook

FB      Patrick DiMarco           Reggie Gilliam/Dawson Knox

WR     Kelvin Benjamin           Curtis Samuel/Chase Claypool

WR     Deonte Thompson      Shakir/Keon Coleman/Marquez Valdez-Scantling

TE      Charles Clay            Dalton Kincaid

LT       Dion Dawkins          Deon Dawkins

LG      Richie Incognito*     David Edwards

C        Eric Wood     Connor McGovern

RG     Vlad Ducasse           O'Cyrus Torrence

RT      Jordan Mills     Spencer Brown

                     

LDE    Shaq Lawson            Greg Rousseau

LDT    Kyle Williams           Ed Oliver

RDT   Adolphus Washington           DaQuan Jones

RDE   Jerry Hughes               AJ Epenesa

LLB    Lorenzo Alexander    Taron Johnson

MLB   Preston Brown         Terrel Bernard

RLB    Ramon Humber       Matt Milano

LCB    Tre'Davious White     Rasul Douglas

RCB   E.J. Gaines       Christian Benford

SS      Micah Hyde*    Taylor Rapp

FS      Jordan Poyer     Cole Bishop

 

I like the 2024 roster a lot better.  I’d take Shady, of course, over Cook.  But oline, receivers, dline, I’ll take 2024.  Corners are a wash – White was a rookie, good then, but not yet what he became.  And Hyde and Poyer were in their first season together, first under McDermott – they were no less question marks at the beginning of the season then the current safeties are now.

 

And then, of course, there’s the QB.  If the starting 21 players in 2017 was good enough to make the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at QB, then the starting 21 in 2024 certainly is good enough to go deep into the playoffs with Allen at QB.   

 

I like where the Bills are, rosterwise.  And looking at those two rosters, it reminds me about the reality of the NFL:  Every team, every team, has multiple guys in the lineup where the fans have their fingers crossed, hoping to see the good story and not the bad story.  I've watched a few minutes here and there of games the NFL Network shows in the evening.   Two, three, five, ten years old.  One think I've noticed - how many unrecognizable names there were on good teams.  No teams are loaded with studs; most teams at most positions have guys who are excellent football players fighting every play to execute and stay in the lineup.  A year or two later, they're gone, replaced with a new guy fighting every play. 

 

I’m not here to argue whether the 2024 roster is better or worse than 2017, and I’m not here to argue that the 2024 Bills roster is as good as it needs to be.  Looking at the collection of names, and the skills of the players, the 2024 Bills roster is a collection solid NFL talent and good rookies with a great quarterback.  How far the team goes will depend on how well the team is coached.  It’s a big year for McDermott.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FireChans]

The “optimists” are invoking the memories of the 2017 roster backing into the playoffs. 
 

We really are doomed in 2024. 
 

This is exhibit A.

[Lost]

I'll admit Deon Dawkins has been a huge upgrade over Dion Dawkins.   

[foreboding]

Dline and safeties were a strength then. But I like our Dline now as well, and as you pointed out...we didn't know those two safeties would become what they became.

[Success]

We played like the best team in the league last year at times, but in the end, we had simply lost too many players to injury.

 

A lot of fans - here & around the league - think we lost too many key players in the offseason, and will take a step back.  I just see us getting younger & faster.  

 

The player I think I'm most excited about is Ray Davis.  His skillset seems to complement Cook's perfectly.  This could be the best running game we've had in the JA era, and will open up the passing game more than we've seen.

[Beast]

McDermott’s going to keep a close eye on the safety’s and have Micah Hyde on speed dial if need be.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

McDermott’s going to keep a close eye on the safety’s and have Micah Hyde on speed dial if need be.

For the past several months, I've always come back to the safeties looking like the weak part of the lineup.  Assuming the linebackers are back to good health, the success of the defense will depend on the safeties. 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Happy Independence Day!

 

I don’t read or listen to much of what is said about the Bills at this time of year, because there just isn’t that much known about what these Bills are going to do or about how well they’re going to do it.  Questions everywhere, and whatever some expert says is largely speculation.   We Bills fans think we know, but until the real games start, it just isn’t knowable.

 

...

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Interesting comparison.  Looking at the '17 roster now, I don't know how McD got that motlely crew into the playoffs.

 

There is so much uncertainty in every offseason but this one more than most.  At this point in the offseason, speculating about the roster is a Rorschak Test.  I learn more about the person sharing their opinion than about the players.   I can see, for example, that Shaw is an open-minded optimist while FireChans is a doomsday curmodgeon.  

 

There's a saying in India, "When a pick-pocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets."  Likewise, when a hungry man in America drives down a street, all he sees is restaurants.  When a horny man drives down a street, all he sees is... well, never mind.

 

The optimists amongst us keep finding reasons to be optimistic.  The pessimist mafiosas keep finding reasons to grumble.  I'm a registered Independent but lean optimist.  I can easily find reasons why this year's receiving corps, OL, LBs, etc will be good.  But, in the end, I really have no freaking idea.  And as smart as all of us are, I think there's going to be some humble pie to eat by season's end.  Each year gives us surprises and this football season will be very interesting.  

 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 04:45 PM by hondo in seattle

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

There is so much uncertainty in every offseason.

 

There was a lot of uncertainty every offseason with the Patriots, too.  The difference was they had Brady and Belichick.  

 

The Bills have Allen.  It's time for McDermott to show he can win. 

[CSBill]

3 hours ago, Lost said:

I'll admit Deon Dawkins has been a huge upgrade over Dion Dawkins.   

 

Well, 2024 Dion is better than 2017 Dion.

[Ballhawk]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 " And Hyde and Poyer were in their first season together, first under McDermott – they were no less question marks at the beginning of the season then the current safeties are now.

 

I recognize that Hyde and Poyer were new entities in Buffalo in 2017, but they were established vets in the league. With Cole Bishop we have no idea (Rapp compares similarly to 2017 Hyde and Poyer). Nonetheless, I think there are a lot more question marks about our safeties in 2024 than there were in 2017. The good news, I think this is one of McDermott's strengths, but am still expecting a drop off from this unit.

[Let's Go Buffalo]

Good call as always, Shaw66! Happy Independence Day as well! Go Bills!

[Doctor Duck]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Looking at the '17 roster now, I don't know how McD got that motlely crew into the playoffs.

 

He didn't, Bengals got us in. However good analysis and it is a better roster than '17

Happy 4th!

[transplantbillsfan]

Shaw.... better than 2017???? C'mon. The answer to that question is an obvious and emphatic YES!!!! The Bills had, at best, an average roster in the NFL in 2017. 

 

What I'm glad I found within the last year are good, broader NFL podcasts with actual pundits who watch the film rather than "shock jocks" like Cowherd, Nick Wright, Stephen A, Skip Bayless, etc. In listening to these (and that would include Mina Kimes, Nate Tice, Robert Mayes, Brett Kollman, EJ Snyder and all the guests they have on their shows), you discover that these broader NFL experts have a lot of the same natural questions we do about the Bills because of the roster turnover and switch to Joe Brady, but they pretty universally agree that while Buffalo may take a step back from the "true contender" category, they're still a playoff team and the favorites to win the AFC East. (By the way, what's even more universal among them is that Josh Allen is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and is in a tier of his own)

 

I think that assessment is pretty fair. Even the most optimistic among us at the very least are merely projecting how our WRs and Safeties especially will be. But what those varying experts also agree on and have talked about at various times is how bad Buffalo's roster was in Josh Allen’s rookie year. Yes, I realize that's 2018, not 2017... but there was a lot of carryover.

 

I don't think 2017's roster is remotely comparable with 2024's roster, even discounting the QBs.

[transient]

If I'm interpreting your system correctly then I think you owe Jerry Hughes an asterisk.

 

The 2017 team was in the middle of a tear down and making the playoffs was an unexpected bonus. 2024 had better be a better team or Beane will have some serious 'splainin' to do.

[stuvian]

It's as good as we can expect with Josh in his prime earning years

[LeGOATski]

42 minutes ago, transient said:

If I'm interpreting your system correctly then I think you owe Jerry Hughes an asterisk.

 

The 2017 team was in the middle of a tear down and making the playoffs was an unexpected bonus. 2024 had better be a better team or Beane will have some serious 'splainin' to do.

Tre White and Lorax were lights out too

[Gunsgoodtime]

TBD=Homerville.   I mean the majority of people here voted the Bills to make the SB this year while most of the predictions I have saw outside of TBD has us finishing 2nd or 3rd in the division.  But on TBD we are guaranteed to win the division and make the playoffs.  Take what you read on TBD with a bottle of salt

[DeepPass]

3 hours ago, Doctor Duck said:

He didn't, Bengals got us in. However good analysis and it is a better roster than '17

Happy 4th!

I agree.  We have a great roster with a lot of experienced NFL players.  The old group couldn't get us to a Super Bowl and now there is hope that the new guys can!

[folz]

I think another interesting comparison might be with the 2021 roster. Despite not making it to the Championship game (as they did in 2020), I think 2021 was the year that we all thought they could/should go on to win it all...probably the best team in the McDermott era to date.

 

Pos             2021                      2024

QB       Allen, Trubisky        Allen, Trubisky

RB      Singletary, Moss      Cook, Davis

WRs          Diggs                    Shakir

                Sanders                  Samuel

                  Davis                    Coleman

           Duke Wiliams           Claypool, MVS

         Kumerow, Hodgins    Hollins, Hamler

TE             Knox                   Kincaid. Knox

LT            Dawkins                 Dawkins

LG           Feliciano                 Edwards    

C               Morse                   McGovern    

RG             Ford                      Torrence

RT          Williams                     Brown 

 

So, quarterback is a push. I'm taking Cook and Davis over Singletary and Moss. Diggs wins the #1 WR battle for the 2021 squad, but from there down, I'm taking the 2024 WRs over the 2021 WR corps. Kincaid/Knox is better than Knox/no one. Dawkins is a push. Not much difference between Feliciano and Edwards probably. As of now, Morse wins the center position, but I'm taking Torrence and Brown over Ford and Williams on the right side (although Williams played well in 2021). 

 

Pos             2021                      2024

LDE          Addison                Rousseau

NT           Lotulelei                   Jones

DT            Oliver                      Oliver

RDE         Hughes              Epenesa/Miller

WLB         Milano                     Milano

MLB        Edmunds                Bernard

SCB        Johnson                  Johnson

CB        White/Jackson          Douglas

CB          Wallace                   Benford

SS           Poyer                       Rapp

FS           Hyde                        Bishop

 

I'm taking Rousseau over Addison, and Daquan over Star. Oliver, Milano, and Taron are all pushes (provided Milano is back to form). I'm taking Epenesa and Miller over Hughes for two reasons, where Jerry was in his career at the time and the hope that Von returns to form---but I could see someone taking the other side on that to. I'm taking Bernard over Edmunds at Mike. And Benford gets the nod over Wallace. Obviously, Hyde and Poyer win the safety battle easy. Then there is Tredavious vs. Rasul. I would give the nod to Tre, but he missed the last 6 games of the year and the two playoff games in 2021, so I'm taking a healthy Rasul over 2021 Tre/Jackson.

 

I honestly do not see any reason why we can't still go on a deep playoff run. The only players I picked from the 2021 squad over the 2024 squad were Diggs, Morse, Poyer, and Hyde. I don't think center will be a problem or that big a drop-off. So, to me, the only major question marks (personnel-wise in comparison to 2021) are can McDermott get the younger safeties up-to-speed? I don't expect them to have the knowledge and rapport of Hyde and Poyer, but are they good enough to keep the drop-off to a minimum and hold their own? And, developing DBs does seem to be a strength for McD, so crossing my fingers. And then, without Diggs, how will the rest of the WR corps handle things? But, with Kincaid in the mix, way better depth, Shakir maturing, and Josh Allen distributing the ball, I really do think we will be fine without Diggs (just mo).