AFC Best Case Worst Case Season Outlook July Edition

[corta765]

3 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

I’m not saying I agree or disagree, but you’re saying the Chiefs worst case almost matches everyone else’s best case?

 

At this point they have the best coach and QB in the league. Their division is AFCE mid 2000s bad so even if their down who are you honestly taking at this point. Don't like it but really hard for me to see any way they miss the playoffs.

19 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

You are pretty spot on Corta.  I like that you are interested in the entire NFL.  Do you like college football a lot also?

 

When I saw your worst case for the Chiefs at only 11-6, At first glance I thought that was giving them a little too much love.  Then I looked up their schedule for 2024.  And it does not look that difficult on paper playing their cross over games against the NFC South.  And their division on paper still looks pretty weak.  Denver and Las Vegas don't look like they have much at QB, at least compared to Mahomes.  And the Chargers were crap last year.  And yes Harbaugh is a good coach.  But I am not sold on Herbert as much as some are.  People were always blaming their coach.  And yes he made some questionable decisions.  But Herbert is soft.  And tends to play small in big moments.  And the Chargers secondary was god awful last year.  But every year is a new season.  So maybe KC gets too comfy and cocky.  And Kelce really starts to fall off.  That would be perfect.  

 

As for the Bills.  I like us in the 12-5 range if the defense can stay healthy.  

 

Exactly with the Chiefs. Like truthfully its like the Pats at this point where the best coach and QB in division are so far ahead, the schedule is light, and you need basically injuries to derail it.

 

I follow college football but not like I use to. It has gotten so money heavy and commercialized its lost its luster for me.

Edited July 3 by corta765

[Coach Tuesday]

On 7/3/2024 at 10:56 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Excellent point.

 

I was looking at it from the standpoint of just the season itself and the potential of Josh Allen being reduced by it going forward.   But long term the draft capital could be nice.   Beane has drafted pretty well but he has struggled to find difference makers and that would be a sliver platter opportunity.

 

Trubisky is absolutely terrible though.   If I had to pick THE current veteran QB most likely to go 0-17 if given the opportunity he would be at the top of the list.   He sucks and he's durable.

I would love a situation where Daniel Jones becomes Allen’s more permanent backup.

[Big Turk]

On 7/2/2024 at 11:53 AM, RiotAct said:

good writeups.  I have a hard time seeing Miami winning 13 games with that defense though, even if their offense continues to click on all cylinders.

 

I just have a hard time seeing it because Tua is simply too limited physically and good teams will force him to beat them, and he simply can't. At least not frequently enough to win 13 games. When you have to hide your QB as much as possible, it doesn't say a lot of good things about his actual capabilities. The easiest way to beat the Fins is to force Tua to beat you.

Edited July 5 by Big Turk

[DeepPass]

On 7/3/2024 at 5:39 AM, Doc Brown said:

Always open.

I truly believe the Dolphins are going backwards!

[Zerovoltz]

I didn't realize that the Chiefs offensive line was old?  Travis Kelce is old.  The oline?  

 

Chiefs best case:  The entire starting D line and pretty much all the depth pieces of it are all back, the reconfigured WR Corps clicks and Kc is able to fill the loss of Snead and Willie Gay without a hitch.  They cruise to another AFC West title and make their 3rd consecutive SB with Kelce having another top 3 TE year.  

 

Worst case:  (assuming regular wear and tear for injuries of course)  Kelce falls off cliff.  The WR room isn't better.  Worthy turns out to be made of glass and is out all the time with pulled hammies.  The rest of the mediocre bunch still can't catch....this time KC doesn't overcome it because Snead is missed, Gay is missed and Chris Jones isn't quite the force he's been.  KC goes 10-7.  Makes the playoffs as 4 seed.  Loses in 1st round.  

 

I am BIASED.  I think they've got one more big run in them before we get some attrition due to cap.....going to be rough trying to resign Creed and Trey Smith, Nick Bolton....not going to be able to keep all.  Justin Ried will be FA after this year.  Roster is due for some substantial turnover NEXT YEAR.  They will be motivated to try and get the only NFL 3 peat ever.  WR's almost can't be as bad as last year just by sheer math.  

[corta765]

On 7/5/2024 at 12:29 PM, Big Turk said:

 

I just have a hard time seeing it because Tua is simply too limited physically and good teams will force him to beat them, and he simply can't. At least not frequently enough to win 13 games. When you have to hide your QB as much as possible, it doesn't say a lot of good things about his actual capabilities. The easiest way to beat the Fins is to force Tua to beat you.

 

It is why it is best case scenario. Realistically it isn't happening and right now I have Miami at 9-8/8-9 range. Teams do have season everything is perfect from health, turnover luck, a few things fall their way and you get a dream season.

I read a good piece by Bill Barnwell which explained good teams over the long term are regularly 11-6/12-5 range, hitting 13/14/15 wins truthfully is a lot of luck circumstance and everything falling your way just given the way football is with all of those factors. The Bills 2017 team was decidedly the worst of the 2015-2017 group yet some turnover luck, fortune, better coaching gave them the playoff berth out of that group which combine was a perfect 24-24 over three seasons. Since Tua arrived in 2020 Miami has a record of 39-28 floating a little above .500 but any time they have met resistance they have wilted. I think it is more likely they go 7-10 then 13-4 at this point and last year was the max of this group, but again circumstance and luck has a way sometimes.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

It is why it is best case scenario. Realistically it isn't happening and right now I have Miami at 9-8/8-9 range. Teams do have season everything is perfect from health, turnover luck, a few things fall their way and you get a dream season.

I read a good piece by Bill Barnwell which explained good teams over the long term are regularly 11-6/12-5 range, hitting 13/14/15 wins truthfully is a lot of luck circumstance and everything falling your way just given the way football is with all of those factors. The Bills 2017 team was decidedly the worst of the 2015-2017 group yet some turnover luck, fortune, better coaching gave them the playoff berth out of that group which combine was a perfect 24-24 over three seasons. Since Tua arrived in 2020 Miami has a record of 39-28 floating a little above .500 but any time they have met resistance they have wilted. I think it is more likely they go 7-10 then 13-4 at this point and last year was the max of this group, but again circumstance and luck has a way sometimes.

 

I can accept that reasoning...I mean even Dick Jauron managed to get the Bears to 13-3 with absolutely abysmal QB play due to defense and teams.

[corta765]

17 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I didn't realize that the Chiefs offensive line was old?  Travis Kelce is old.  The oline?  

 

 

I just realized Jaawan Taylor is only 26, I swear he has been in the NFL for like a decade already lol.

 

Your best case and worst case is the same as what I have. Realistically if the worst case for the Chiefs is some parts show some age and they still win a division crown and host a playoff game that is pretty impressive.

 

The one think more then anything working against the Chiefs is their run of AFC title games in a row and statistically they should have an off year. BUT the only two teams that have scared or beaten KC in the post season are CIN whose DEF seems to match Mahomes while Burrow can hold serve and BUF which is basically because Josh somehow goes off yearly against KC before Mahomes beats the Bills defense lol.

 

Who do you think emerges from the WR corp besides Rice at this point? Worhty is new, does Watson have a shot?

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I can accept that reasoning...I mean even Dick Jauron managed to get the Bears to 13-3 with absolutely abysmal QB play due to defense and teams.

 

Exactly. Almost yearly there is a team that comes out of nowhere or exceeds prior expectations to have a year like that. Even that Bears team in 2018 that went 11-5 and ran hot a lot of people thought in 2019 would be better... except they ignored the historically high turnover margin the team had and # of TDs the defense contributed that was due for correction in the following year.

 

Football is weird weird weird, it is why top QBs are what you want and follow and they have the most consistent trajectory.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I just realized Jaawan Taylor is only 26, I swear he has been in the NFL for like a decade already lol.

 

Your best case and worst case is the same as what I have. Realistically if the worst case for the Chiefs is some parts show some age and they still win a division crown and host a playoff game that is pretty impressive.

 

The one think more then anything working against the Chiefs is their run of AFC title games in a row and statistically they should have an off year. BUT the only two teams that have scared or beaten KC in the post season are CIN whose DEF seems to match Mahomes while Burrow can hold serve and BUF which is basically because Josh somehow goes off yearly against KC before Mahomes beats the Bills defense lol.

 

Who do you think emerges from the WR corp besides Rice at this point? Worhty is new, does Watson have a shot?

 

So they weren't scared against the Bills down with 13 seconds left?  That was one of the most improbable wins in playoff history. Same with last year...Bills led almost the entire playoff game.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

So they weren't scared against the Bills down with 13 seconds left?  That was one of the most improbable wins in playoff history. Same with last year...Bills led almost the entire playoff game.

To me once you win the crown you gain another level of confidence and 13 seconds with the way that game was going AND then the proceeding dumb*ss kickoff, no I def would've had confidence in tying if I was KC. Last year they seemed to relish the challenge truthfully and the "underdog" status.

 

BUF-KC has turned into a classic breakthrough battle ala BOS-NYY Manning-Brady OAK-PIT NFL 70s where one team has had the hammer forever but the other is getting close. Now it also could turn into Knicks-Bulls but I am not putting myself mentally into that head place lol

[nuklz2594]

Bills are Forrest Gump. Life is like a box of chocolates...never know what you're gonna get. 

[Billl]

4 hours ago, corta765 said:

Who do you think emerges from the WR corp besides Rice at this point? Worhty is new, does Watson have a shot?

Hollywood Brown seems like the obvious pick there.  I don’t see him setting the world on fire, but I think he can deliver somewhere in the neighborhood of 750 yards and 6 TDs.  Worthy should be good for 600 yards and 5 TDs or so which would put him right around what Mecole Hardman produced as a rookie.  Watson is what he is, a guy who does the little things well but doesn’t provide much in the way of tangible production.  I don’t see that ever changing.

 

Theoretically, Rice’s production on a per game basis should increase by roughly the same amount that Kelce’s tapers off.  The rest of the WRs are bums, so anything they produce is just gravy.  It’s still not deep, but Brown and Worthy should be serious upgrades over MVS and Richie James.

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 7/3/2024 at 1:25 PM, corta765 said:

 

At this point they have the best coach and QB in the league. Their division is AFCE mid 2000s bad so even if their down who are you honestly taking at this point. Don't like it but really hard for me to see any way they miss the playoffs.

 

Exactly with the Chiefs. Like truthfully its like the Pats at this point where the best coach and QB in division are so far ahead, the schedule is light, and you need basically injuries to derail it.

 

I follow college football but not like I use to. It has gotten so money heavy and commercialized its lost its luster for me.

With the conference realignments this year.  (Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC.  USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington to the Big 10, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon to the Big 12, and even SMU (who has a very exciting team) Stanford and Cal to the ACC.)  There will be some very exciting new matchups to watch.  I am a big Michigan guy.  And we play Texas Washington, Oregon, USC and Ohio State this year.  I am so pumped to watch those games.  

 

Give it another try Corta.  You can do it.  And very good reference comparing the current AFC West to the AFC East of the mid 2000's.  A bad memory for us to say the least.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

With the conference realignments this year.  (Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC.  USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington to the Big 10, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon to the Big 12, and even SMU (who has a very exciting team) Stanford and Cal to the ACC.)  There will be some very exciting new matchups to watch.  I am a big Michigan guy.  And we play Texas Washington, Oregon, USC and Ohio State this year.  I am so pumped to watch those games.  

 

Give it another try Corta.  You can do it.  And very good reference comparing the current AFC West to the AFC East of the mid 2000's.  A bad memory for us to say the least.

 

Haha don't worry I still watch and my buddy is a huge UM fan so I pull for them. I am a U Miami guy so its been a bit lol. I am curious with Saban gone how this all shakes out.

[Paup 1995MVP]

6 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Haha don't worry I still watch and my buddy is a huge UM fan so I pull for them. I am a U Miami guy so its been a bit lol. I am curious with Saban gone how this all shakes out.

Good for your buddy.  Did he go to UM, or is he from Michigan?  I went there in the mid 80's when Bo was still coaching and Harbaugh was our QB.  

 

I live in Fort Lauderdale part time, so I follow the Hurricanes some.  They are very popular down there.  They have been exciting the past few years.  But just don't seem to be able to close out games against the good teams.  I will be rooting for them this year again.  Have to try and go see a game.  It is hot at the Hard Rock stadium in the fall for those day games though.  But like I said, I love college football.

[corta765]

13 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Good for your buddy.  Did he go to UM, or is he from Michigan?  I went there in the mid 80's when Bo was still coaching and Harbaugh was our QB.  

 

I live in Fort Lauderdale part time, so I follow the Hurricanes some.  They are very popular down there.  They have been exciting the past few years.  But just don't seem to be able to close out games against the good teams.  I will be rooting for them this year again.  Have to try and go see a game.  It is hot at the Hard Rock stadium in the fall for those day games though.  But like I said, I love college football.

Naw just one of those things he got hooked as a kid and has never stopped.

 

My one dream in life is in one Fall to hit all of the major college football stadiums for the experience, Death Valley, Ole Miss, Big House, The Horseshoe, Golden Dome, Iowa. Literally every weekend Sept-Nov try and just catch a game at each.

[MJS]

On 7/2/2024 at 7:01 PM, Billl said:

Good post. Not sure I agree that the Dolphins have a best case scenario of 13 wins while the Ravens’ is only 12, but it’s a very fair analysis overall. 

The Ravens had to let a lot of talent go. Not a lot of people are talking about that. I think they might surprise people with some early struggles.

[corta765]

48 minutes ago, MJS said:

The Ravens had to let a lot of talent go. Not a lot of people are talking about that. I think they might surprise people with some early struggles.

I have wondered myself if they start slow the first half before getting it together. The AFC North is really interesting as each team has some legit questions:

 

Ravens- roster turned over a lot especially on their D, does it take them a bit to get it together? Is their a let down after failing last year to make the SB and being the 1 seed?

Bengals- Burrow last year took a bit to comeback from injury and this injury is far more critical to his throwing. Is he the same player and how long does it take him to get going if he does return to form?

Browns- They benefited from turnovers, went 6-2 in one score games, and had surprisingly decent QB play that supported the loss of Chubb. With Watson back can he ever find any form of the QB he use to be and when fortune swings back this year with turnovers/one score games who do they respond?

Steelers- Can either QB find enough of a form to lead the offense to middling form? Talent exists for the offense to do some things even with Arthur Smith as OC and the defense is solid, but QB play will sink this team quickly given the division.