AFC Best Case Worst Case Season Outlook July Edition

[corta765]

I started doing this last year and enjoyed it greatly where I looked at each conference and each team with their best case/worst case season wise and kind of kept doing it throughout. The rosters are relatively set and I will do this again in August, but here is where things feel to me at this point:

 

Baltimore

Best: The Ravens win a tight division race at 12-5 as their running game is close to unstoppable and the defense gels in the back end to be a force. 1 seed again and this time they beat KC at home to make the SB

Worst: The defense takes a step back as the losses they've had catch up and the offense regresses while Henry shows his age in a 9-8 non playoff year as the division attrition takes its toll

 

Buffalo

Best: Similar to the Ravens the Bills go 12-5 in a tight division race as the offense truly finds itself in the last 9 games and they get the 1 seed finally. They slay the dragon against KC and go to the SB beating CIN at home in the AFC title.

Worst: The losses on defense add up as the unit takes a real step back, the offense never finds itself requiring Josh to be superman too much, and they stumble to an 9-8 year out of the playoffs

 

Cincinnati

Best: Burrow is healthy on return and they throttle through the division and finish 13-4 with the 1 seed.

Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 and Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN.

 

Cleveland

Best: Watson finally finds his game after all of these years and the Browns win the division at 11-5. They win their first playoff game at home in a century

Worst: The Browns go 6-11 as the luck they had in one score games last year reverses, Watson continues to not show anything at QB, and the team is out of the playoff race by mid December.

 

Denver

Best: In a miracle type situation Bo Nix leads the Broncos to a wild card berth as the AFC log jams the final spots and DEN ends up 2nd best of the AFCW.

Worst: The lack of talent in DEN rears its ugly head as they sink to a 4-13 year and Nix shows nothing in any starts to give any hope he can be the answer long term.

 

Houston

Best: 14-3 dream season as the offense sparkles like everyone hopes and the defense continues to solidify as they get the 1 seed and make their first AFC title game.

Worst: Stroud fails to take another step forward, they lose the tight games they won in 2023, and they fall to 8-9 out of the playoffs as Jacksonville eliminates them week 17 from the playoff race.

 

Indianapolis

Best: The Colts are the surprise AFC South winner at 10-7 as Richardson healthy with Taylor healthy mix into a dynamic rushing attack with some deep passing threats.

Worst: Richardson's promise of 2023 never materializes in any meaningful way in 2024 and the Colts have a down 7-10 season where they never are truly part of the playoff race

 

Jacksonville

Best: The Jags are the team that went 8-3 through the first 11 in 2023 across a full season this time as Lawrence healthy leads the Jags to an 11-5 division crown.

Worst: Lawrence injuries' continue to add up as they trip to another season under .500 at 7-11 and questions on the long term future of coach/qb swirl.

 

Kansas City:

Best: The steamroll continues as they threepeat and face little resistance in the AFC

Worst: The age of the offensive line and Kelce finally shows mixed with suspensions to a few players for this offseason and the Chiefs go 11-6 ending up the fourth seed and lose at home in the first round.

 

LA Chargers

Best: Herbert with competent coaching hits the heights people hold him to and the Chargers make the wild card as a plucky 7th seed.

Worst: The Chargers go 6-11 as the lack of talent on the roster becomes evident and Herbert fails to return to being the player he was in 21/22.

 

Las Vegas

Best: The young players on the Raiders grow big time as the offense turns into a solid unit with one of the QBs providing enough capable QB to keep the team in the playoff hunt late December

Worst: They win too many games finishing with 4-6 wins and miss out on the first overall pick with no clear answer at QB either.

 

Miami

Best: Their offense boat races the AFC as Miami finally finishes the season as hot as they've started the last few years at 13-4 and goes to the AFC title.

Worst: Lack of depth, Tua's limitations, injuries & age to Hill finally catch up as the Phins fall back to 7-11 in a year that forces major questions up the long term future at QB and roster.

 

New England

Best: Drake Maye establishes himself as a quality starter as the Pats go 7-10 as the defense remains stout without BB and the offense comes together setting up a nice springboard for 2025.

Worst: Brissett fails to do anything meaningful as starter until Maye starts who has a Bryce Young level bad first year. The defense regresses as BB wizardly is no longer there to cover the holes and the Patriots go 4-13 again but also miss out on a top 3 pick.

 

New York Jets

Best: The stars align as Rodgers has a top 5 caliber QB season which mixed with the Jets defense sees them go 12-5 to win their first division crown in over two decades. The Jets proceed to make it to the AFC title game.

Worst: Rodgers gets beat up and fails to finish the season as age is real. The team with Tyrod cannot finish the season and they again miss the playoffs at 7-10 lamenting what could have been.

 

Pittsburgh

Best: Justin Fields steals the starting spot and leads a resurgent Steeler offense to a top 10 season as they steal the division at 11-5.

Worst: The dreaded under .500 season hits as the Steelers offense has no QB and the division ascends past them as they are out of the playoff hunt by mid December as the brutal schedule finishes the job.

 

Tennessee

Best: Will Levis emerges into a true starter and the youth movement continues as the Titans finish surprisingly close to a playoff spot.

Worst: Levis is not the QB and too shaky, the 2020 all star team they put together shows its age, and the Titans go 2-15 in a rough season with no real brightspots to build off.

[RiotAct]

good writeups.  I have a hard time seeing Miami winning 13 games with that defense though, even if their offense continues to click on all cylinders.

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

good writeups.  I have a hard time seeing Miami winning 13 games with that defense though, even if their offense continues to click on all cylinders.

 They do have a new DC which of course their players are super excited about (#anychangeisgoodchangewithplayers) so I can see their defense geling possibly. They also had a host of serious injuries themselves which took its toll last year. 

 

Honestly I think Miami's most realistic scenario is 8-9 // 9-8 where they flirt with the playoffs but the loss of talent is real, Hill shows a little age, and Tua is what he is. Tua has had years now of help and support and I think he is pretty decent. But at this point it also is what it is and I think they regress in a tougher AFC with less talent to work with. But best case scenario is they finally put it together and finish which is why I have it that way.

Edited July 2 by corta765

[PBF81]

TSW

Best:  We win the division again, there's plenty of see I told ya so's for everyone;  the typical debates emerge after we are unceremoniously ousted in the divisional round, fun and the usual merriment for all.  

Worst:  We don't win the division, don't make the playoffs;  we have to hide all the matches;  have a referral forum for suicide prevention counselors;  hire numerous Crisis Intervention specialists, and have a good supply of Indicas.  

[Billl]

Good post. Not sure I agree that the Dolphins have a best case scenario of 13 wins while the Ravens’ is only 12, but it’s a very fair analysis overall. 

[LABILLBACKER]

....you had me at slay the dragon...

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

I'd agree with the Bills "best case".

 

But the "worst" is Allen getting injured in the opener and Trubisky as the starting QB against that tough schedule.  

 

Drafting #1 overall isn't out of the question in that scenario.

 

They don't have the proven difference makers like the 2-14 Peyton Manning-less 2011 Colts.   Indy still had Freeney/Mathis on D and Wayne/Garcon/Clark on offense.........4 of the 5 of them still had really good seasons.  

 

But overall the Bills roster probably stacks up about equal if you were to remove Allen from the equation like Manning was.

[Saxum]

16 hours ago, corta765 said:

Cincinnati

Best: Burrow is healthy on return and they throttle through the division and finish 13-4 with the 1 seed.

Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 and Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN.

 

Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 AND Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN until last possible week to collect his year's credit.
 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd agree with the Bills "best case".

 

But the "worst" is Allen getting injured in the opener and Trubisky as the starting QB against that tough schedule.  

 

Drafting #1 overall isn't out of the question in that scenario.

 

They don't have the proven difference makers like the 2-14 Peyton Manning-less 2011 Colts.   Indy still had Freeney/Mathis on D and Wayne/Garcon/Clark on offense.........4 of the 5 of them still had really good seasons.  

 

But overall the Bills roster probably stacks up about equal if you were to remove Allen from the equation like Manning was.

I'd rather have the #1 pick than go 9-8 and miss the playoffs so I disagree that's the worst scenario.  You could trade that pick for a King's ransom.  Even if you don't having the top pick and two likely high second rounders should give Allen a great team around him the 2nd half of his career.

[Doc Brown]

17 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Worst: Lawrence injuries' continue to add up as they trip to another season under .500 at 7-11 and questions on the long term future of coach/qb swirl.

 

Worst: Lack of depth, Tua's limitations, injuries & age to Hill finally catch up as the Phins fall back to 7-11 in a year that forces major questions up the long term future at QB and roster.

Always open.

[corta765]

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

....you had me at slay the dragon...

Knew you'd appreciate that big guy

[corta765]

12 hours ago, Billl said:

Good post. Not sure I agree that the Dolphins have a best case scenario of 13 wins while the Ravens’ is only 12, but it’s a very fair analysis overall. 

More schedule related then anything. BAL has a first place schedule and a division where if they win they still cap out at 12. Miami basically has two freebees with NE and if they were to hit their best scenario probably go 3-1 vs NY/BUF. The rest of their schedule I'd say they are favored or even minus SF, GB, HOU so again in a perfect season for them I think 13-4 is plausible.

[stlbills13]

Worst case scenario.

 

17-0.

 

Josh throws 52 touchdowns and adds 18 on the ground for a historical 70 TD season with just under 6000 total yards. James Cook rushes for 1000 yards and Coleman, Shakir, Samuel also have 1000 yard seasons with Coleman already being classified as a top 10 WR in the NFL. Guys like MVS, Claypool, Hollins emerge as legit deep threats and defenses have no idea how to stop the Bills with Kincaid (1000 yard season) and Knox (10 TDs) dominate underneath all season. Ray Davis proves he can be an inexpensive backup with a wildly efficient 6 yards per carry and 750 yard season. The offensive line keeps Josh upright all season to the point where Josh has to play golf on Mondays and Tuesdays to get exercise after barely having to move on Sundays

 

Von Miller rebounds with an 18 sack season including 4 of Mahomes in the 55-3 regular season win for the Bills. Greg Rousseau adds 22 sacks of his own and potentially prices himself out of Buffalo as he's being called the best defensive end in the NFL. Ed Oliver is such a threat with pressure up the middle that opposing offenses run 2 RB formations at all time to help their QB. Epenesa and Solomon get a combined 16 sacks where they're basically untouched. Milano and Bernard are the best LB tandem in the NFL with a combined 30 INT's, sacks, and forced fumbles. The secondary capitalizes on the intense pressure with 20 picks, 8 of which are returned for touchdowns and Elam emerges as a Marcus Peters type big play threat. Cole Bishop becomes one of the best safeties in the NFL and the Bills are known as the most desirable place for all safeties. 

 

Babich and Brady are both on the shortlist for every head coach job in the league and McD silences all critics both in the NFL and within Al Qaeda

 

The Bills, with their 38 point average margin of victory, get ready to host the 5th seeded Ravens (whom they beat 41-6 earlier in the season) in the first round of the playoffs when CBS cuts to the director of the CDC partnering with Roger Goodell announcing the rest of the season has been canceled due to a virus caused by Aaron Rodgers mixing two psychedelic drugs with the fur of Australian sheep covered by the blood of Brazilian beatles. 

[Sweats]

Best case scenario - we finally go to a SB in the McD era and also, the girl with the big jugs working the fry-o-lator at the concession stand finally goes out with me.

 

Worst case scenario - we **** the bed, win nothing and Miami leapfrogs us to finally prove its AFCEast dominance.

[JP51]

21 hours ago, corta765 said:

I started doing this last year and enjoyed it greatly where I looked at each conference and each team with their best case/worst case season wise and kind of kept doing it throughout. The rosters are relatively set and I will do this again in August, but here is where things feel to me at this point:

 

Baltimore

Best: The Ravens win a tight division race at 12-5 as their running game is close to unstoppable and the defense gels in the back end to be a force. 1 seed again and this time they beat KC at home to make the SB

Worst: The defense takes a step back as the losses they've had catch up and the offense regresses while Henry shows his age in a 9-8 non playoff year as the division attrition takes its toll

 

Buffalo

Best: Similar to the Ravens the Bills go 12-5 in a tight division race as the offense truly finds itself in the last 9 games and they get the 1 seed finally. They slay the dragon against KC and go to the SB beating CIN at home in the AFC title.

Worst: The losses on defense add up as the unit takes a real step back, the offense never finds itself requiring Josh to be superman too much, and they stumble to an 9-8 year out of the playoffs

 

Cincinnati

Best: Burrow is healthy on return and they throttle through the division and finish 13-4 with the 1 seed.

Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 and Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN.

 

Cleveland

Best: Watson finally finds his game after all of these years and the Browns win the division at 11-5. They win their first playoff game at home in a century

Worst: The Browns go 6-11 as the luck they had in one score games last year reverses, Watson continues to not show anything at QB, and the team is out of the playoff race by mid December.

 

Denver

Best: In a miracle type situation Bo Nix leads the Broncos to a wild card berth as the AFC log jams the final spots and DEN ends up 2nd best of the AFCW.

Worst: The lack of talent in DEN rears its ugly head as they sink to a 4-13 year and Nix shows nothing in any starts to give any hope he can be the answer long term.

 

Houston

Best: 14-3 dream season as the offense sparkles like everyone hopes and the defense continues to solidify as they get the 1 seed and make their first AFC title game.

Worst: Stroud fails to take another step forward, they lose the tight games they won in 2023, and they fall to 8-9 out of the playoffs as Jacksonville eliminates them week 17 from the playoff race.

 

Indianapolis

Best: The Colts are the surprise AFC South winner at 10-7 as Richardson healthy with Taylor healthy mix into a dynamic rushing attack with some deep passing threats.

Worst: Richardson's promise of 2023 never materializes in any meaningful way in 2024 and the Colts have a down 7-10 season where they never are truly part of the playoff race

 

Jacksonville

Best: The Jags are the team that went 8-3 through the first 11 in 2023 across a full season this time as Lawrence healthy leads the Jags to an 11-5 division crown.

Worst: Lawrence injuries' continue to add up as they trip to another season under .500 at 7-11 and questions on the long term future of coach/qb swirl.

 

Kansas City:

Best: The steamroll continues as they threepeat and face little resistance in the AFC

Worst: The age of the offensive line and Kelce finally shows mixed with suspensions to a few players for this offseason and the Chiefs go 11-6 ending up the fourth seed and lose at home in the first round.

 

LA Chargers

Best: Herbert with competent coaching hits the heights people hold him to and the Chargers make the wild card as a plucky 7th seed.

Worst: The Chargers go 6-11 as the lack of talent on the roster becomes evident and Herbert fails to return to being the player he was in 21/22.

 

Las Vegas

Best: The young players on the Raiders grow big time as the offense turns into a solid unit with one of the QBs providing enough capable QB to keep the team in the playoff hunt late December

Worst: They win too many games finishing with 4-6 wins and miss out on the first overall pick with no clear answer at QB either.

 

Miami

Best: Their offense boat races the AFC as Miami finally finishes the season as hot as they've started the last few years at 13-4 and goes to the AFC title.

Worst: Lack of depth, Tua's limitations, injuries & age to Hill finally catch up as the Phins fall back to 7-11 in a year that forces major questions up the long term future at QB and roster.

 

New England

Best: Drake Maye establishes himself as a quality starter as the Pats go 7-10 as the defense remains stout without BB and the offense comes together setting up a nice springboard for 2025.

Worst: Brissett fails to do anything meaningful as starter until Maye starts who has a Bryce Young level bad first year. The defense regresses as BB wizardly is no longer there to cover the holes and the Patriots go 4-13 again but also miss out on a top 3 pick.

 

New York Jets

Best: The stars align as Rodgers has a top 5 caliber QB season which mixed with the Jets defense sees them go 12-5 to win their first division crown in over two decades. The Jets proceed to make it to the AFC title game.

Worst: Rodgers gets beat up and fails to finish the season as age is real. The team with Tyrod cannot finish the season and they again miss the playoffs at 7-10 lamenting what could have been.

 

Pittsburgh

Best: Justin Fields steals the starting spot and leads a resurgent Steeler offense to a top 10 season as they steal the division at 11-5.

Worst: The dreaded under .500 season hits as the Steelers offense has no QB and the division ascends past them as they are out of the playoff hunt by mid December as the brutal schedule finishes the job.

 

Tennessee

Best: Will Levis emerges into a true starter and the youth movement continues as the Titans finish surprisingly close to a playoff spot.

Worst: Levis is not the QB and too shaky, the 2020 all star team they put together shows its age, and the Titans go 2-15 in a rough season with no real brightspots to build off.

Great writeup...I am agreeing with all you said pretty much... but for fun I would add

 

Baltimore - worse -  Lamar breaking down at the end of the season and despite a great regular season record they make an early exit in the playoffs. 

 

Miami - worse - Tua contract situation persists and causes mayhem in the first half of the season Dolphins find themselves behind the 8 ball early and never recover to be a threat

 

thanks for the post!

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

I’m not saying I agree or disagree, but you’re saying the Chiefs worst case almost matches everyone else’s best case?

[Rubes]

I'd probably stipulate that each team's "worst-case scenario" should exclude the obvious possibility of losing the team's best player (eg, QB) to a season-ending injury early in the season. That's just too easy.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd rather have the #1 pick than go 9-8 and miss the playoffs so I disagree that's the worst scenario.  You could trade that pick for a King's ransom.  Even if you don't having the top pick and two likely high second rounders should give Allen a great team around him the 2nd half of his career.

 

Excellent point.

 

I was looking at it from the standpoint of just the season itself and the potential of Josh Allen being reduced by it going forward.   But long term the draft capital could be nice.   Beane has drafted pretty well but he has struggled to find difference makers and that would be a sliver platter opportunity.

 

Trubisky is absolutely terrible though.   If I had to pick THE current veteran QB most likely to go 0-17 if given the opportunity he would be at the top of the list.   He sucks and he's durable.

[Fleezoid]

Best case: Bills win the Super Bowl

Worst case: Bills make it to the AFCCG and get knocked out by another 13-second type of scenario.

Then we all spend the offseason asking....

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3 by Fleezoid

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 7/2/2024 at 11:40 AM, corta765 said:

I started doing this last year and enjoyed it greatly where I looked at each conference and each team with their best case/worst case season wise and kind of kept doing it throughout. The rosters are relatively set and I will do this again in August, but here is where things feel to me at this point:

 

Baltimore

Best: The Ravens win a tight division race at 12-5 as their running game is close to unstoppable and the defense gels in the back end to be a force. 1 seed again and this time they beat KC at home to make the SB

Worst: The defense takes a step back as the losses they've had catch up and the offense regresses while Henry shows his age in a 9-8 non playoff year as the division attrition takes its toll

 

Buffalo

Best: Similar to the Ravens the Bills go 12-5 in a tight division race as the offense truly finds itself in the last 9 games and they get the 1 seed finally. They slay the dragon against KC and go to the SB beating CIN at home in the AFC title.

Worst: The losses on defense add up as the unit takes a real step back, the offense never finds itself requiring Josh to be superman too much, and they stumble to an 9-8 year out of the playoffs

 

Cincinnati

Best: Burrow is healthy on return and they throttle through the division and finish 13-4 with the 1 seed.

Worst: Burrow's injuries from prior years take their toll as he struggles to regain form and the Bengals slip to 7-10 and Higgins refuses to comeback to CIN.

 

Cleveland

Best: Watson finally finds his game after all of these years and the Browns win the division at 11-5. They win their first playoff game at home in a century

Worst: The Browns go 6-11 as the luck they had in one score games last year reverses, Watson continues to not show anything at QB, and the team is out of the playoff race by mid December.

 

Denver

Best: In a miracle type situation Bo Nix leads the Broncos to a wild card berth as the AFC log jams the final spots and DEN ends up 2nd best of the AFCW.

Worst: The lack of talent in DEN rears its ugly head as they sink to a 4-13 year and Nix shows nothing in any starts to give any hope he can be the answer long term.

 

Houston

Best: 14-3 dream season as the offense sparkles like everyone hopes and the defense continues to solidify as they get the 1 seed and make their first AFC title game.

Worst: Stroud fails to take another step forward, they lose the tight games they won in 2023, and they fall to 8-9 out of the playoffs as Jacksonville eliminates them week 17 from the playoff race.

 

Indianapolis

Best: The Colts are the surprise AFC South winner at 10-7 as Richardson healthy with Taylor healthy mix into a dynamic rushing attack with some deep passing threats.

Worst: Richardson's promise of 2023 never materializes in any meaningful way in 2024 and the Colts have a down 7-10 season where they never are truly part of the playoff race

 

Jacksonville

Best: The Jags are the team that went 8-3 through the first 11 in 2023 across a full season this time as Lawrence healthy leads the Jags to an 11-5 division crown.

Worst: Lawrence injuries' continue to add up as they trip to another season under .500 at 7-11 and questions on the long term future of coach/qb swirl.

 

Kansas City:

Best: The steamroll continues as they threepeat and face little resistance in the AFC

Worst: The age of the offensive line and Kelce finally shows mixed with suspensions to a few players for this offseason and the Chiefs go 11-6 ending up the fourth seed and lose at home in the first round.

 

LA Chargers

Best: Herbert with competent coaching hits the heights people hold him to and the Chargers make the wild card as a plucky 7th seed.

Worst: The Chargers go 6-11 as the lack of talent on the roster becomes evident and Herbert fails to return to being the player he was in 21/22.

 

Las Vegas

Best: The young players on the Raiders grow big time as the offense turns into a solid unit with one of the QBs providing enough capable QB to keep the team in the playoff hunt late December

Worst: They win too many games finishing with 4-6 wins and miss out on the first overall pick with no clear answer at QB either.

 

Miami

Best: Their offense boat races the AFC as Miami finally finishes the season as hot as they've started the last few years at 13-4 and goes to the AFC title.

Worst: Lack of depth, Tua's limitations, injuries & age to Hill finally catch up as the Phins fall back to 7-11 in a year that forces major questions up the long term future at QB and roster.

 

New England

Best: Drake Maye establishes himself as a quality starter as the Pats go 7-10 as the defense remains stout without BB and the offense comes together setting up a nice springboard for 2025.

Worst: Brissett fails to do anything meaningful as starter until Maye starts who has a Bryce Young level bad first year. The defense regresses as BB wizardly is no longer there to cover the holes and the Patriots go 4-13 again but also miss out on a top 3 pick.

 

New York Jets

Best: The stars align as Rodgers has a top 5 caliber QB season which mixed with the Jets defense sees them go 12-5 to win their first division crown in over two decades. The Jets proceed to make it to the AFC title game.

Worst: Rodgers gets beat up and fails to finish the season as age is real. The team with Tyrod cannot finish the season and they again miss the playoffs at 7-10 lamenting what could have been.

 

Pittsburgh

Best: Justin Fields steals the starting spot and leads a resurgent Steeler offense to a top 10 season as they steal the division at 11-5.

Worst: The dreaded under .500 season hits as the Steelers offense has no QB and the division ascends past them as they are out of the playoff hunt by mid December as the brutal schedule finishes the job.

 

Tennessee

Best: Will Levis emerges into a true starter and the youth movement continues as the Titans finish surprisingly close to a playoff spot.

Worst: Levis is not the QB and too shaky, the 2020 all star team they put together shows its age, and the Titans go 2-15 in a rough season with no real brightspots to build off.

You are pretty spot on Corta.  I like that you are interested in the entire NFL.  Do you like college football a lot also?

 

When I saw your worst case for the Chiefs at only 11-6, At first glance I thought that was giving them a little too much love.  Then I looked up their schedule for 2024.  And it does not look that difficult on paper playing their cross over games against the NFC South.  And their division on paper still looks pretty weak.  Denver and Las Vegas don't look like they have much at QB, at least compared to Mahomes.  And the Chargers were crap last year.  And yes Harbaugh is a good coach.  But I am not sold on Herbert as much as some are.  People were always blaming their coach.  And yes he made some questionable decisions.  But Herbert is soft.  And tends to play small in big moments.  And the Chargers secondary was god awful last year.  But every year is a new season.  So maybe KC gets too comfy and cocky.  And Kelce really starts to fall off.  That would be perfect.  

 

As for the Bills.  I like us in the 12-5 range if the defense can stay healthy.