How close is Allen to Mahomes if all things were equal?

[Alphadawg7]

I think it's safe to say that if you polled the coaches, GM's, and players that Allen would be QB2 behind Mahomes by the end of that poll.  And I think the vote would be pretty decisively Mahomes 1 and Allen 2.  In the media, amongst fans, social media, etc he would probably still finish QB2 but likely by a narrower margin as he has a larger group of detractors there then the people who play against him.  

 

But what do the numbers say?  Well I think they may surprise some...

 

The QB's job is to score points, and right off the bat we know he has the most TD's in NFL history for a players first 6 seasons.  Now the detractors will come back and say that is only because Mahomes sat his first year...well that isn't accurate, Mahomes played 1 game and Allen missed 6 games.  So Allen only played 9 games more his rookie year and did so throwing to Benjamin as his lead WR without the luxury of sitting a year behind a quality vet.  But...lets remove this argument all together and just focus on since 2020 when Allen arrived as a top tier QB.

 

• Since 2020, Allen has the most TD's in the NFL with 174.  In 2nd place is Mahomes with a distant 151.  3rd place is even further back at 125 (Herbert).  
• Allen has an NFL record 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ TD's and counting.  He puts up 40 again and he extends that record to 5 consecutive seasons.  
• And Allen has done that with 3 OC's in 4 seasons, and an inferior set of weapons compared to many other top QB's

 

Some were saying 2023 was a down year for Allen, like he regressed and took a step back.  But did he really?  

• He led the NFL in TD's
• He led the NFL in TD's vs top 10 defenses with 20
• He is first in points added per game vs top 10 defenses wtih 3.8
• He again finished in top 5 voting for MVP and only person not named Lamar to get a vote and the only player to finish in the top 5 the past 2 seasons...and that was with Dorsey clown show for 75% of those games.
• And this was with tension with Diggs and an OC switch week 11.

 

Then there is the argument that Allens turnovers are why he has not won a Super Bowl and why some lower is QB ranking below guys like Burrow who also has not won a SB, but had his defense help him reach one.  

• Allen has the lowest Interception % of all QB's with at least 350 career playoff passing attempts at just 1.1%.  Mahomes is 2nd at 1.2%
• He only has 2 lost fumbles in his playoff career too.  

 

There are a lot more stats you can review, I picked some of the more interesting ones from a couple different articles I came across, I will add the links below.

 

So...who really is the best QB in the NFL if all things were equal?  On one hand, Allen has statistically produced more with less advantages than Mahomes, but Mahomes has the rings ...but he also had the supporting cast make the plays when it matters, especially on defense because SB rings are a team accomplishment and too much credit/blame is assigned to the QB in regard to winning a SB or not.

 

Josh Allen stats that will irritate non-Bills fans

 

20 Unbelievable stats for his 28th birthday

 

 

 

 

 

[90sBills]

No other fanbases outside of Bills even think this is a real debate. Mahomes is the best then everybody else end of story.

 

Allen is #2 imo and there’s a lot to be proud about that in a league with many young talented quarterbacks. 

[Alphadawg7]

For my opinion on my own question...

 

Mahomes and Allen can do things no other QB in the NFL can do, they are clearly the top 2 guys.  However, there are a couple more things Allen can do that Mahomes can't, and I think you see that reflected in the TD total gap and it comes down to what they can do with their legs.  Both are excellent at using their legs to extend plays or make a huge play running with the ball.  However, Allens power and size just afford him a slightly bigger arsenal than Mahomes.  

 

So for me...I think if you swap Allen into KC instead of Mahomes, Allen has the rings and Mahomes doesn't and Allen would be building a GOAT resume while people would be debating if Mahomes is QB2 or outside the top 5 in the media like they do with Allen.

 

Bottom line...both these guys are special...and its a fun to watch them both play and picking who is better is always going to come down to rings, so hopefully Allen gets his so he can be on more equal footing in this question.

Edited Monday at 04:45 PM by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

No other fanbases outside of Bills even think this is a real debate. Mahomes is the best then everybody else end of story.

 

Allen is #2 imo and there’s a lot to be proud about that in a league with many young talented quarterbacks. 

 

I agree, its going to be Mahomes...but that is because of the SB rings...and Mahomes has also had the people around him make the plays needed to win in the postseason, especially on defense, where Allen has not. 

 

Meanwhile Allen has had 3 OC's in last 4 seasons, and a defense that never made the big play in the postseason.  Especially in 2021 and 2023, Bills should have beaten the Chiefs twice...but KC had guys make the plays, while Allens teammates didn't. 

 

Diggs dropping passes, defense giving up leads with 13 seconds and coming up lame in OT.  Meanwhile, guys like Chris Jones is out there wrecking offenses to seal games for Mahomes.  

 

So I think the question is a lot close than people think.

Edited Monday at 04:50 PM by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For my opinion on my own question...

 

Mahomes and Allen can do things no other QB in the NFL can do, they are clearly the top 2 guys.  However, there are a couple more things Allen can do that Mahomes can't, and I think you see that reflected in the TD total gap and it comes down to what they can do with their legs.  Both are excellent at using their legs to extend plays or make a huge play running with the ball.  However, Allens power and size just afford him a slightly bigger arsenal than Mahomes.  

 

So for me...I think if you swap Allen into KC instead of Mahomes, Allen has the rings and Mahomes doesn't and Allen would be building a GOAT resume while people would be debating if Mahomes is QB2 or outside the top 5 in the media like they do with Allen.

 

Bottom line...both these guys are special...and its a fun to watch them both play and picking who is better is always going to come down to rings, so hopefully Allen gets his so he can be on more equal footing in this question.

Not just for you but a lot of Bills fans think this. Like I said, no other fanbases are even having this conversation. Just my opinion…it gets tiring the mental hoops we come up with to put Allen as the best in the league. 

[GoBills808]

from a resume and narrative perspective it isn't close

 

but put them on the same field in the playoffs and allen tends to shine

[transient]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

For my opinion on my own question...

 

Mahomes and Allen can do things no other QB in the NFL can do, they are clearly the top 2 guys.  However, there are a couple more things Allen can do that Mahomes can't, and I think you see that reflected in the TD total gap and it comes down to what they can do with their legs.  Both are excellent at using their legs to extend plays or make a huge play running with the ball.  However, Allens power and size just afford him a slightly bigger arsenal than Mahomes.  

 

So for me...I think if you swap Allen into KC instead of Mahomes, Allen has the rings and Mahomes doesn't and Allen would be building a GOAT resume while people would be debating if Mahomes is QB2 or outside the top 5 in the media like they do with Allen.

 

Bottom line...both these guys are special...and its a fun to watch them both play and picking who is better is always going to come down to rings, so hopefully Allen gets his so he can be on more equal footing in this question.

The premise of your thread is all things being equal... flip flopping teams is not equal. Posit, instead, if you have a KC team coached by Reid in an alternate universe where the only change in makeup of the team is Allen at QB instead of Mahomes OR one in which there is a Bills team coached by McDermott and the only difference is the QB is Mahomes instead of Allen, which parallel team has more success? Tough one, IMO. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

Not just for you but a lot of Bills fans think this. Like I said, no other fanbases are even having this conversation. Just my opinion…it gets tiring the mental hoops we come up with to put Allen as the best in the league. 

 

Rings will always win every argument...I get that, and its fair.  But ultimately, having watched the players around Allen squander Allens own greatness in the post season gets held against Allen way too much and I think it creates this huge gap between how people see Mahomes and Allen respectively.  But I think they are a lot closer than Allen gets credit for personally, and if Allen gets say 2 rings he will have his own case for best in the NFL.

 

 

[QB Bills]

The difference between Allen and Mahomes is the same difference between Manning and Brady: Coaching.

 

Allen is a better qb than Mahomes just as Manning was better than Brady. It's the oldest and laziest argument in sports to assign team accomplishments to individual players.

 

Josh Allen has almost no margin for error with his idiot choke artist coach whereas Mahomes can miss wide open TDs (as he did on the first two drives this past playoff game against the Bills) and he will get bailed out by Andy Reid or Chris Jones or, unfortunately for us, Sean McDermott.

Edited Monday at 05:01 PM by QB Bills

[thenorthremembers]

Allen has 38 more turnovers in just two less career games.     They are pretty much neck in neck when it comes to touchdowns and overall yards, but the turnovers, to me, are the equalizer.   Allen is the 2nd best quarterback in the league but Pat is #1.

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Rings will always win every argument...I get that, and its fair.  But ultimately, having watched the players around Allen squander Allens own greatness in the post season gets held against Allen way too much and I think it creates this huge gap between how people see Mahomes and Allen respectively.  But I think they are a lot closer than Allen gets credit for personally, and if Allen gets say 2 rings he will have his own case for best in the NFL.

 

 

It’s not just rings. One guy has 2 regular season MVP trophies. One guy started with 50 passing touchdowns in his first year starting. If you think it’s just rings that put Mahomes above the rest you haven’t been paying attention. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

13 seconds would have never happened under Andy Reid 

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

13 seconds would have never happened under Andy Reid 

Probably not. But blowing 38-10 2nd half playoffs lead is right in his wheelhouse. What a clutch coach. 

[HOUSE]

 Voting for Mahomes is certain death

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

If Allen and Mahomes swapped teams, everything else remaining the same, Allen would be the one with multiple SBs and MVPs while Mahomes had nothing. 

[FireChans]

Mahomes.

 

Mahomes playoff numbers:

 

15-3, 67.9 completion%, 46 TD’s (6.9 TD%), 8 INT’s (1.2 INT%), 315 YPG, 105.8 passer rating

 

Allen’s playoff numbers:

5-5, 64.6 completion%, 27 TD’s (5.6 TD%), 4 INT’s (1.1 INT%) 328 YPG, 100.0 passer rating

 

It’s not really a debate. Allen elevates in the playoffs and plays close to his level but there’s a definite gap imo.

 

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

It’s not just rings. One guy has 2 regular season MVP trophies. One guy started with 50 passing touchdowns in his first year starting. If you think it’s just rings that put Mahomes above the rest you haven’t been paying attention. 

 

Allen has More TD's than Mahomes over their first 6 years...Allen has more TD's since 2020 than Mahomes by a wide margin.  

 

Mahomes started his first season with a TE and WR that are amongst the best to ever play, a HC that is credited as being one of the best offensive minds in NFL history, and after sitting a year behind a pretty good QB in Alex Smith.  

 

Meanwhile...Allen started his career learning from Nathan Peterman, playing for a first time HC who was a defensive mind, on a roster being torn down to shed cap to start rebuilding the year after from the ground up, throwing to Fat Albert Benjamin, burrito hands Zay Jones, and hands made of Clay at TE.  

 

So if you want to just compare thier first full seasons then you haven't been paying attention.  

 

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Mahomes.

 

Mahomes playoff numbers:

 

15-3, 67.9 completion%, 46 TD’s (6.9 TD%), 8 INT’s (1.2 INT%), 315 YPG, 105.8 passer rating

 

Allen’s playoff numbers:

5-5, 64.6 completion%, 27 TD’s (5.6 TD%), 4 INT’s (1.1 INT%) 328 YPG, 100.0 passer rating

 

It’s not really a debate. Allen elevates in the playoffs and plays close to his level but there’s a definite gap imo.

 

 

And no one is denying that...but what if Allen was playing for KC in those same playoff games?  How much better would his numbers be under Reid and having guys like Kelce and Hill and having a defense not choke away games with players like Chris Jones making the plays to end them?

 

That is the real question...if all things were equal, would it really still be Mahomes or not?  I think the answer to that question is a lot closer than people think.

Edited Monday at 05:35 PM by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Allen has More TD's than Mahomes over their first 6 years...Allen has more TD's since 2020 than Mahomes by a wide margin.  

 

Yeah because Mahomes only started one game his rookie year. There are a lot of records that Mahomes holds that has never been done in the NFL.

 

Again, what we’re doing here is jumping through hoops to justify our guy is better when the collective football world thinks otherwise. It’s real little bro energy and completely unnecessary. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Yeah because Mahomes only started one game his rookie year. There are a lot of records that Mahomes holds that has never been done in the NFL.

 

Again, what we’re doing here is jumping through hoops to justify our guy is better when the collective football world thinks otherwise. It’s real little bro energy and completely unnecessary. 

 

You know Allen only played 9 more games than Mahomes as a rookie right?  Yet he is a sizeable lead on the TD's for first 6 years still, and again has nearly a 20 TD lead over Mahomes in the last 4 years playing for a defensive HC and 3 different OC's.  

 

And Allen started with trash on a team being torn down for 2 seasons before the rebuild really started.  Mahomes started on a playoff caliber team with a HOF HC and 2 all time greats to throw too.

Edited Monday at 05:48 PM by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You know Allen only played 9 more games than Mahomes as a rookie right?  Yet he is a sizeable lead on the TD's for first 6 years still, and again has nearly a 20 TD lead over Mahomes in the last 4 years playing for a defensive HC and 3 different OC's.  

Cool. Let’s talk passing TDs where most people focus on for quarterbacks.