How close is Allen to Mahomes if all things were equal?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think it's safe to say that if you polled the coaches, GM's, and players that Allen would be QB2 behind Mahomes by the end of that poll.  And I think the vote would be pretty decisively Mahomes 1 and Allen 2.  In the media, amongst fans, social media, etc he would probably still finish QB2 but likely by a narrower margin as he has a larger group of detractors there then the people who play against him.  

 

But what do the numbers say?  Well I think they may surprise some...

 

The QB's job is to score points, and right off the bat we know he has the most TD's in NFL history for a players first 6 seasons.  Now the detractors will come back and say that is only because Mahomes sat his first year...well that isn't accurate, Mahomes played 1 game and Allen missed 6 games.  So Allen only played 9 games more his rookie year and did so throwing to Benjamin as his lead WR without the luxury of sitting a year behind a quality vet.  But...lets remove this argument all together and just focus on since 2020 when Allen arrived as a top tier QB.

 

• Since 2020, Allen has the most TD's in the NFL with 174.  In 2nd place is Mahomes with a distant 151.  3rd place is even further back at 125 (Herbert).  
• Allen has an NFL record 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ TD's and counting.  He puts up 40 again and he extends that record to 5 consecutive seasons.  
• And Allen has done that with 3 OC's in 4 seasons, and an inferior set of weapons compared to many other top QB's

 

Some were saying 2023 was a down year for Allen, like he regressed and took a step back.  But did he really?  

• He led the NFL in TD's
• He led the NFL in TD's vs top 10 defenses with 20
• He is first in points added per game vs top 10 defenses wtih 3.8
• He again finished in top 5 voting for MVP and only person not named Lamar to get a vote and the only player to finish in the top 5 the past 2 seasons...and that was with Dorsey clown show for 75% of those games.
• And this was with tension with Diggs and an OC switch week 11.

 

Then there is the argument that Allens turnovers are why he has not won a Super Bowl and why some lower is QB ranking below guys like Burrow who also has not won a SB, but had his defense help him reach one.  

• Allen has the lowest Interception % of all QB's with at least 350 career playoff passing attempts at just 1.1%.  Mahomes is 2nd at 1.2%
• He only has 2 lost fumbles in his playoff career too.  

 

There are a lot more stats you can review, I picked some of the more interesting ones from a couple different articles I came across, I will add the links below.

 

So...who really is the best QB in the NFL if all things were equal?  On one hand, Allen has statistically produced more with less advantages than Mahomes, but Mahomes has the rings ...but he also had the supporting cast make the plays when it matters, especially on defense because SB rings are a team accomplishment and too much credit/blame is assigned to the QB in regard to winning a SB or not.

 

Josh Allen stats that will irritate non-Bills fans

 

20 Unbelievable stats for his 28th birthday

 

 

 

 

 

Mahomes by a slim margin. Allen can still change the narrative being not even halfway thru their careers yet. I think 17 will age a lot more gracefully as his physical tools will take a lot longer to deteriorate. Mahomes has had much more to work including better coaching so it’s really hard to tell. The benefit of having an elite TE (which are MUCH harder to find than elite WRs) cannot be understated. I’m really hoping Kincaid can be that guy. It would really transform the dimensions of the Bills offense. 

[Tuco]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’ve never heard anyone call Allen a choker lol. 
 

Bills fans out here fighting the voices in their heads.

You will notice in my post I said "outside of Bills Nation"  - as in, people who aren't Bills fans or maybe don't watch them as much as we do. And the photos I shared were my tongue-in-cheek, somewhat sarcastic response to those people who only see end results and then place it all on one player's shoulders. Maybe that all went over your head.

 

And maybe you've never heard anyone call Allen a choker. But to deny the fact there are plenty of people OUTSIDE OF BILLS NATION who think of him as such is seems a little short-sigted to me. I found the following posts in other teams' message boards in about 2 minutes. These are statemenmts made by people outside Bills Nation. They are not voices in my head.

 

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

8 hours ago, julian said:

Allen… has more tools in his bag than any QB in history, he can just do more than every other QB

This is key to this OP convo imho—Allen is blessed with a virtually limitless ceiling of football talent, which if unleashed the right way makes him in the words of Thanos…inevitable. He can simply do more than anyone else, Mahomes included. Tell me something Mahomes can physically do that Allen can’t—whereas Allen can do some things Mahomes cannot (or at least we haven’t seen). 

[90sBills]

55 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

This is key to this OP convo imho—Allen is blessed with a virtually limitless ceiling of football talent, which if unleashed the right way makes him in the words of Thanos…inevitable. He can simply do more than anyone else, Mahomes included. Tell me something Mahomes can physically do that Allen can’t—whereas Allen can do some things Mahomes cannot (or at least we haven’t seen). 

You know it is often said that what separates elite athletes in similar positions are the 6 inches between the ears. I’ve seen Mahomes brought his team back in divisional playoff games after being down 21-0 in the first quarter. I’ve also seen Allen completely forgot how to be an elite qb after his team went down 14-0 in the first quarter. Say what you will about physical abilities (I think Allen is the better athlete btw) but it requires more than that to have sustained success at the highest level. I don’t watch Marvel movies but didn’t Thanos lose at the end?

[MDH]

The two are closer than most football fans want to admit. They're equals almost everywhere but Mahommes is the much better screen/short passing game QB. Allen frequently misses in this area and he's one of the reasons the Bills' screen game has been subpar - his ball placement doesn't allow for YAC.

[LABILLBACKER]

You give Josh...

Reid

Spagnuolo

Kelce

Hill

Jones

.....he's winning at least 2 SB's in that 7 year span.

[billsbackto81]

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

Show me. Should be easy. 
 

Im not talking about a tweet with 3 likes. 
 

If Mahomes and Allen swapped spots, Mahomes would be more successful. Because he’s the better QB.

So you're saying if Josh had Reid in KC with that personnel and Mahomes had a Defensive HC in McDermott with his personnel, Mahomes would still be better and have 3 rings? 

[Rampant Buffalo]

Before talking about Mahomes or Allen, it's necessary to talk about Alex Smith. Smith was the 49ers QB for a number of years. He was considered reasonably good, but nothing special. The kind of guy a team wouldn't mind having as a bridge QB, but not a long-term answer. Now that Alex Smith is retired, his career average is 6.9 yards per attempt. That puts him above Trent Edwards (6.5) or JP Losman (6.6), but below a guy like Tom Brady (7.4).

 

In his last year with the 49ers, Alex Smith was benched in favor of Colin Kaepernick. The next year, he found his way to the Kansas City Chiefs. In his last year with the Chiefs (with Mahomes sitting on the bench), Alex Smith averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt, with a QB rating of 104.7, and over 4,000 passing yards. That's better than Tom Brady (7.4), Aaron Rodgers (7.7) or Drew Brees (7.6). Did Alex Smith suddenly start playing at a higher level than those other three QBs? No, he didn't. He was a fairly average QB. But Andy Reid's offensive system, and the Chiefs' supporting cast, allowed this Joe Average QB to put up offensive numbers that would make a Hall of Fame QB envious.  

 

Next season, Pat Mahomes became the beneficiary of Andy Reid's offensive system, and the Chiefs' supporting cast. Those things boosted his numbers, just as they had boosted Alex Smith's numbers.

 

Has Josh Allen received a similar boost in numbers from his own supporting cast? In this most recent playoff loss to the Chiefs, Bills receivers had 160 yards of drops. That's not the kind of boost which makes people say, "Oh wow! I can't believe Allen got a boost that big! I'm so astonished my jaw is about to fall off!"

 

Any comparison between Allen's stats and Mahomes' is going to be apples to oranges. The Chiefs' supporting cast, and their offensive system, really has been that much better than the Bills'.

[SaulGoodman]

These teams have had similar talent the last four years (I'd even give the Bills the edge in a few of those). I don't see any reason to think Allen would have accomplished the same or more. Especially if he had to deal with the same circumstances, such as the high ankle sprain, no WRs in the AFCC vs Cincy, a decimated OL in the 2020 playoffs, last year's drops/turnovers, and mediocre/poor defense most years. 

 

Bills fans believe that Allen's better because he has a hell of an arm, scored more TDs last year, and he's thrown more flashy bombs the past couple seasons. He might have the stronger arm, but he falls short in the mental aspect of the game. 

 

12 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

Any comparison between Allen's stats and Mahomes' is going to be apples to oranges. The Chiefs' supporting cast, and their offensive system, really has been that much better than the Bills'.

 

Mahomes' receivers were a joke last year. It was comical how often they screwed up. Allen's had better offensive talent the past two years, and better defenses every year but one. How has Mahomes' supporting cast been "that" much better? It's very debatable that it's been better at all the last few seasons. 

Edited Tuesday at 06:02 AM by SaulGoodman

[PBF81]

16 hours ago, QB Bills said:

The difference between Allen and Mahomes is the same difference between Manning and Brady: Coaching.

 

Allen is a better qb than Mahomes just as Manning was better than Brady. It's the oldest and laziest argument in sports to assign team accomplishments to individual players.

 

Josh Allen has almost no margin for error with his idiot choke artist coach whereas Mahomes can miss wide open TDs (as he did on the first two drives this past playoff game against the Bills) and he will get bailed out by Andy Reid or Chris Jones or, unfortunately for us, Sean McDermott.

 

Mahomes and Allen have two different styles. 

 

But the difference between them is Reid vs. McD.  

 

Reid is arguably the best offensively oriented coach in the game today and a far better coach than McD is.  McD has no handle on offense and must rely on those beneath him, whom he controls, and which are not proven to any notable level with no significant accolades or achievements in the NFL.  

 

It's common sense for the objective.  

 

Hopefully this will clear up this season for the stragglers and we can shed this entirely irrational fear of being bad with Allen at QB, and move on to someone that actually understands offense and doesn't have to try to build an empire out of loosely knit nonsense like complimentary football to overcome his terminal weaknesses.

 

Them again, Pegula's the one that decides.  Not Beane.  Pegula doesn't seem to care about winning, only his wealth.  

 

 

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

Them again, Pegula's the one that decides.  Not Beane.  Pegula doesn't seem to care about winning, only his wealth.  

If that was the case he'd employ the ridiculous "cash to cap" philosophy that Ralph Wilson demanded.

[finn]

5 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

Any comparison between Allen's stats and Mahomes' is going to be apples to oranges. The Chiefs' supporting cast, and their offensive system, really has been that much better than the Bills'.

And you KNOW that if the reverse comes to pass--that Allen's team and coaches end up superior to Mahomes'--that the football world now confidently claiming Mahomes is better hands-down will suddenly see the importance of system, supporting cast, and coaching. 

[Einstein]

19 hours ago, 90sBills said:

No other fanbases outside of Bills even think this is a real debate. Mahomes is the best then everybody else end of story.

 

I really don’t care what other fanbases think.

 

Mahomes was drafted onto a team with:

 

- An established veteran QB to learn under

- The greatest offensive coach of all time

- Hall-of-fame WR

- Hall-of-fame TE

- An incredible front office

- Had made the playoffs 4 of the past 5 years

 

Allen was drafted onto a team with:

 

- A defensive head coach

- Kelvin Benjamin as his #1 WR

- Had missed the playoffs 17 of the past 18 years

 

Mahomes walked into the best possible scenario one could be given. Allen walked into a significantly less favorable scenario.

 

I do not care what the neanderthal mouth breathing fans of other teams who only watch Allen a few times per year think. I believe that if Allen & Mahomes switched situations, Allen would have Super Bowl rings right now and Mahomes trophy case would be empty. 

 

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think it's safe to say that if you polled the coaches, GM's, and players that Allen would be QB2 behind Mahomes by the end of that poll.  And I think the vote would be pretty decisively Mahomes 1 and Allen 2.  In the media, amongst fans, social media, etc he would probably still finish QB2 but likely by a narrower margin as he has a larger group of detractors there then the people who play against him.  

 

But what do the numbers say?  Well I think they may surprise some...

 

The QB's job is to score points, and right off the bat we know he has the most TD's in NFL history for a players first 6 seasons.  Now the detractors will come back and say that is only because Mahomes sat his first year...well that isn't accurate, Mahomes played 1 game and Allen missed 6 games.  So Allen only played 9 games more his rookie year and did so throwing to Benjamin as his lead WR without the luxury of sitting a year behind a quality vet.  But...lets remove this argument all together and just focus on since 2020 when Allen arrived as a top tier QB.

 

• Since 2020, Allen has the most TD's in the NFL with 174.  In 2nd place is Mahomes with a distant 151.  3rd place is even further back at 125 (Herbert).  
• Allen has an NFL record 4 consecutive seasons of 40+ TD's and counting.  He puts up 40 again and he extends that record to 5 consecutive seasons.  
• And Allen has done that with 3 OC's in 4 seasons, and an inferior set of weapons compared to many other top QB's

 

Some were saying 2023 was a down year for Allen, like he regressed and took a step back.  But did he really?  

• He led the NFL in TD's
• He led the NFL in TD's vs top 10 defenses with 20
• He is first in points added per game vs top 10 defenses wtih 3.8
• He again finished in top 5 voting for MVP and only person not named Lamar to get a vote and the only player to finish in the top 5 the past 2 seasons...and that was with Dorsey clown show for 75% of those games.
• And this was with tension with Diggs and an OC switch week 11.

 

Then there is the argument that Allens turnovers are why he has not won a Super Bowl and why some lower is QB ranking below guys like Burrow who also has not won a SB, but had his defense help him reach one.  

• Allen has the lowest Interception % of all QB's with at least 350 career playoff passing attempts at just 1.1%.  Mahomes is 2nd at 1.2%
• He only has 2 lost fumbles in his playoff career too.  

 

There are a lot more stats you can review, I picked some of the more interesting ones from a couple different articles I came across, I will add the links below.

 

So...who really is the best QB in the NFL if all things were equal?  On one hand, Allen has statistically produced more with less advantages than Mahomes, but Mahomes has the rings ...but he also had the supporting cast make the plays when it matters, especially on defense because SB rings are a team accomplishment and too much credit/blame is assigned to the QB in regard to winning a SB or not.

 

Josh Allen stats that will irritate non-Bills fans

 

20 Unbelievable stats for his 28th birthday

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why did you ask one question in the title, but a different one in the poll?

[Buffalo Boy]

   Allen can do everything that Mahomes can do equally as well or better. The inverse is not true.

   This is why myself and others keep assigning blame elsewhere. Some on circumstances, some on coaching.

    It has never been Allen’s fault. He is the only thing that has kept us going often. He has been the margin of error that has gotten over some humps.

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

So you're saying if Josh had Reid in KC with that personnel and Mahomes had a Defensive HC in McDermott with his personnel, Mahomes would still be better and have 3 rings? 

Mahomes would be better. Not sure about 3 rings. More rings than Allen tho.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If that was the case he'd employ the ridiculous "cash to cap" philosophy that Ralph Wilson demanded.

 

Think long term

 

... or at least medium term.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 01:28 PM by PBF81

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   Allen can do everything that Mahomes can do equally as well or better. The inverse is not true.

   This is why myself and others keep assigning blame elsewhere. Some on circumstances, some on coaching.

    It has never been Allen’s fault. He is the only thing that has kept us going often. He has been the margin of error that has gotten over some humps.

Allen can’t do the underhand short flip crazy stuff Mahomes does.  Mahomes, although he can be elusive, is not as good at cleverly or physically fighting off defenders and doesn’t throw nearly.as deep while off balance.  I prefer Allen’s arsenal but it doesn’t mean Mahomes isn’t unique.

 

On talent, both are in a very high echelon even when considered across generations.  The difference lies in the preparedness of Mahomes vs. seat of the pants I’ll figure it out when I get there of Allen and the willingness to accept losing.  Both are millennials but Mahomes has a more old school mentality while Allen prefers constant fun and if it brings wins then great.  
 

The “nothing is ever Allen’s fault” stuff is bunk. I agree 100000000% that he is the reason we have won as much as we have but that does not mean he has realized his full potential.  He hasn’t.

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I do not care what the neanderthal mouth breathing fans of other teams who only watch Allen a few times per year think. I believe that if Allen & Mahomes switched situations, Allen would have Super Bowl rings right now and Mahomes trophy case would be empty. 

 

This is the kind of irrational stance that gets BillsMafia laughed at among NFL fans. With each passing year of not winning a superbowl the laughs will only get louder if this opinion remains prevalent among our fanbase. 

[Buffalo Boy]

16 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Allen can’t do the underhand short flip crazy stuff Mahomes does.  Mahomes, although he can be elusive, is not as good at cleverly or physically fighting off defenders and doesn’t throw nearly.as deep while off balance.  I prefer Allen’s arsenal but it doesn’t mean Mahomes isn’t unique.

 

On talent, both are in a very high echelon even when considered across generations.  The difference lies in the preparedness of Mahomes vs. seat of the pants I’ll figure it out when I get there of Allen and the willingness to accept losing.  Both are millennials but Mahomes has a more old school mentality while Allen prefers constant fun and if it brings wins then great.  
 

The “nothing is ever Allen’s fault” stuff is bunk. I agree 100000000% that he is the reason we have won as much as we have but that does not mean he has realized his full potential.  He hasn’t.

Knox called about having the ball flipped to him by Allen in the ez for a TD as he was being tackled and said, 🤷‍♂️

……among other times we’ve seen it happen. 
    When Allen try’s a desperate lateral he’s called reckless. 
    When Mahomes tries an illegal lateral he’s called “ a fierce competitor “ when actually he’s just a petulant child.

    I stand by my statement. Nothing Mahomes does can’t be done by Allen also. I am not gigging JA for being saddled with pedestrian OCs