Close your eyes McDermott haters…he’s a top 10 HC

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Once again this discussion becomes less about McDermott and more about tearing down other coaches to ostensibly raise up McDermott. That's a losing argument. It has exactly zero relevance to McDermott's own success and failure.

 

Allen is the only QB that consistently plays at or above Mahomes' level in their matchups, most notably he has done it twice in the playoffs. Only two other times I have seen a QB play at Mahomes' level in a playoff matchup - Burrow in the 2022 AFCCG and Brady in the Super Bowl. Fill in the blanks.

 

If Burrow had played as well as playoff Josh Allen in the 2023 AFCCG, the Bengals would have gone to the Super Bowl last year. Ditto for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens this year. The 49ers would have won two Super Bowls by now if Garappalo and Purdy played at even an above average level in their games, let alone at Allen's level.

 

Other teams are losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs because their QBs aren't quite good enough. We're losing because our coaches aren't quite good enough. That's the difference.

 

If you're not factoring Josh Allen into your analysis, it's a bad argument. If you're pointing to the failings of other coaches, it's a bad argument. McDermott and his coaching staff have not been good enough to take an elite QB who raises his play in the playoffs past the divisional round more than once in five attempts. That one time they got semi-close it was a blowout loss. That's the simple reality and nothing that anybody points to can hand wave it away.

 

 

 

HappyDays, do you believe that when we've faced KC in the playoffs we trotted out better players?  

 

No matter how either of us answer that question, and I suspect we'd answer differently, I do think KC has better coaches.  I think they have the best coaches in the league.  Both their offense and defense are very coached well.

 

But as excellent as their roster and coaching staff is, we tend to outplay them in the regular season.  McD is  3-1 against Reid - despite Reid's excellent staff and players - in the regular season since 2020.   McD must have some talent as a coach.  

 

KC tends to barely beat us in the playoffs.  Two years ago, the playoff game went to OT.  Last season we lost because of a missed Bassomatic FG.   Both games could have gone either way.  

 

These two teams are pretty evenly matched.  It's not an utter failure to be very nearly on par with the best team in the league.  If we were an NFC team, we'd be losing to them in the SB rather than the AFC playoffs.  

 

So how do we get over the hump?  We could fire McD.  We could fire Beane.  We could fire both.  Or we could give them time to make the Bills just a little bit better - enough to raise up a trophy.   

[Rampant Buffalo]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The defense has unquestionably played poorly in the playoff losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. But I don't think it has primarily been because of scheme or coaching. That isn't to say there isn't an element there that ultimately falls to coaching. But they have been shorn of key players in each of the playoff losses since the AFCCG of 2020. And there have been other contributory factors too (the Bengals game I put a total line through not a single Bill turned up ready to play that day, whether through locker room disputes or the mental exhaustion of the Hamlin situation or whatever). 

 

The prevent defense thing gets thrown around but on tape it isn't really true. They play zone, sure. They are a zone team. 

 

Look at the AFC Championship game between the Chiefs and Bengals. In the first half, the Chiefs offense was eating the Bengals defense alive. In fact, that Bengals defense was looking a lot like McDermott's playoff defense against the Chiefs.

 

But then in the second half something changed. The Bengals began playing tighter coverage with their CBs. That's when they generated the vast majority of their six defensive stops. McDermott and Frazier relentlessly used soft zone/prevent in their playoff games against the Chiefs, with complete disregard for whether that tactic was or wasn't working. Unlike the Bengals defensive coordinator, they weren't willing to go to tight CB coverage, even after soft zone had failed again and again. There's a reason Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott as a defensive coordinator.

 

Unlike you, I do not give McDermott a mulligan for the defensive collapse in the Bengals playoff game. It's worth looking at that season as a whole. In the season opener, the Bills looked very good against the Rams. I liked the coaching effort on both sides of the ball. But as the season went on things changed. The Bills were barely squeaking by teams they should have been dominating. The coaching staff had gotten away from the things they had done well against the Rams. The Bills did not look remotely like a team which deserved to be in any kind of Super Bowl conversation. That pattern of disappointing performances began long before the Hamlin injury.

 

That under-performance continued into the Bengals game, for which McDermott deserves no mulligan. It was the usual soft zone, prevent defense. The usual two defensive stops. The usual defensive collapse in the playoffs. Everything about that game was completely normal for McDermott and Frazier, at least in postseason games against elite QBs.

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Kicks a FG down 8 from the opponents 8 yard line with 2 minutes left, playing against another HoF QB. A truly horrific and indefensible coaching decision.

 

Two win probability models slightly favored going for it over kicking a FG, and one win probability model slightly favored kicking the FG.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/matt-lafleur-aaron-rodgers-nfc-championship-fourth-down-field-goal/

 

Not exactly "horrific and indefensible."

 

Be honest - you have no clue how Matt LaFleur does in the minutiae of coaching decisions because you don't pay that close of attention to the Packers.

 

Either way, bringing him or any other head coach into the conversation is entirely irrelevant. It's a distraction. My argument isn't that McDermott should be replaced with Matt LaFleur. It's that we should give somebody else a try with Josh Allen because the very worst case scenario is that we continue to not win Super Bowls, which I believe will be the case under McDermott regardless based on past results.

 

Edited June 28 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Two win probability models slightly favored going for it over kicking a FG, and one win probability model slightly favored kicking the FG.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/matt-lafleur-aaron-rodgers-nfc-championship-fourth-down-field-goal/

 

Be honest - you have no clue how Matt LaFleur does in the minutiae of coaching decisions because you don't pay that close of attention to the Packers.

 

Either way, bringing him or any other head coach into the conversation is entirely irrelevant. It's a distraction. My argument isn't that McDermott should be replaced with Matt LaFleur. It's that we should give somebody else a try with Josh Allen because the very worst case scenario is that we continue to not win Super Bowls, which I believe will be the case under McDermott regardless based on past results.

 

Oh sure.

 

If you go for it and don’t get it, you have to make a stop and score a TD.

 

If you kick a FG, you have to make a stop and score a TD.

 

Come on bro.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Two win probability models slightly favored going for it over kicking a FG, and one win probability model slightly favored kicking the FG.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/matt-lafleur-aaron-rodgers-nfc-championship-fourth-down-field-goal/

 

Not exactly "horrific and indefensible."

 

Be honest - you have no clue how Matt LaFleur does in the minutiae of coaching decisions because you don't pay that close of attention to the Packers.

 

Either way, bringing him or any other head coach into the conversation is entirely irrelevant. It's a distraction. My argument isn't that McDermott should be replaced with Matt LaFleur. It's that we should give somebody else a try with Josh Allen because the very worst case scenario is that we continue to not win Super Bowls, which I believe will be the case under McDermott regardless based on past results.

 

It's not going to happen w these guys you are arguing against

 

They think Reid not winning SBs in Philly w McNabb is the functional equivalent of McDermott not winning SBs w Allen. They think he just needs more time. I've seen this very argument presented a hundred different ways

[Gregg]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

It's not going to happen w these guys you are arguing against

 

They think Reid not winning SBs in Philly w McNabb is the functional equivalent of McDermott not winning SBs w Allen. They think he just needs more time. I've seen this very argument presented a hundred different ways

 

The only opinion that counts is Terry's, and he likes McDermott as his coach. Who knows if the Bills take a step back this year with all of the new faces on the roster. If they do take a step back this year, I would still say McDermott is safe for 2025. But after that who knows. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

But then in the second half something changed. The Bengals began playing tighter coverage with their CBs. That's when they generated the vast majority of their six defensive stops. McDermott and Frazier relentlessly used soft zone/prevent in their playoff games against the Chiefs, with complete disregard for whether that tactic was or wasn't working. Unlike the Bengals defensive coordinator, they weren't willing to go to tight CB coverage, even after soft zone had failed again and again. There's a reason Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott as a defensive coordinator.

 

 

 

I mean that is just inaccurate the adjustment the Bengals made in that game was to go 3 man rush drop 8 and flood the shallow zones. Was a great adjustment by Anarumo no doubt, but it was not a result of coming out of zone and playing more man. Indeed it was the opposite.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The only opinion that counts is Terry's, and he likes McDermott as his coach. Who knows if the Bills take a step back this year with all of the new faces on the roster. If they do take a step back this year, I would still say McDermott is safe for 2025. But after that who knows. 

yes also correct. i know mcdermott isn't getting fired anytime. that's irrelevant to my personal views on his tenure

[Rampant Buffalo]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean that is just inaccurate the adjustment the Bengals made in that game was to go 3 man rush drop 8 and flood the shallow zones. Was a great adjustment by Anarumo no doubt, but it was not a result of coming out of zone and playing more man. Indeed it was the opposite.

 

I did not say the Bengals had played "more man." I said they had played tighter coverage with their CBs. If you're dropping 8, your intention is typically not going to be, "Let 'em have the underneath stuff."

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Resort to Meme's when you've been outed, what is your handle at Finheaven?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Resort to Meme's when you've been outed, what is your handle at Finheaven?

McDermNOT

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

I did not say the Bengals had played "more man." I said they had played tighter coverage with their CBs. If you're dropping 8, your intention is typically not going to be, "Let 'em have the underneath stuff."

 

The plan wasn't about playing tighter it was about confusing Mahomes and making him hold the ball. Was a good adjustment, no question. 

 

But the Bills have had success against Mahomes too. Sadly not in the post season. Why that is, hard to say, lots of factors. But we are not that different schematically so I am reluctant to put it down to that. 

30 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

HappyDays, do you believe that when we've faced KC in the playoffs we trotted out better players?  

 

No matter how either of us answer that question, and I suspect we'd answer differently, I do think KC has better coaches.  I think they have the best coaches in the league.  Both their offense and defense are very coached well.

 

But as excellent as their roster and coaching staff is, we tend to outplay them in the regular season.  McD is  3-1 against Reid - despite Reid's excellent staff and players - in the regular season since 2020.   McD must have some talent as a coach.  

 

KC tends to barely beat us in the playoffs.  Two years ago, the playoff game went to OT.  Last season we lost because of a missed Bassomatic FG.   Both games could have gone either way.  

 

These two teams are pretty evenly matched.  It's not an utter failure to be very nearly on par with the best team in the league.  If we were an NFC team, we'd be losing to them in the SB rather than the AFC playoffs.  

 

So how do we get over the hump?  We could fire McD.  We could fire Beane.  We could fire both.  Or we could give them time to make the Bills just a little bit better - enough to raise up a trophy.   

 

Agree with all this. The margin in Bills - KC games the last 4 times has been razor thin. They have all basically come down to 1 or 2 plays. It has gone our way twice, their way twice. Unfortunately they have won the two big ones. That sucks. But I don't think it proves we can't beat them in a big one. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The plan wasn't about playing tighter it was about confusing Mahomes and making him hold the ball. Was a good adjustment, no question. 

 

But the Bills have had success against Mahomes too. Sadly not in the post season. Why that is, hard to say, lots of factors. But we are not that different schematically so I am reluctant to put it down to that. 

 

Agree with all this. The margin in Bills - KC games the last 4 times has been razor thin. They have all basically come down to 1 or 2 plays. It has gone our way twice, their way twice. Unfortunately they have won the two big ones. That sucks. But I don't think it proves we can't beat them in a big one. 

People only see the big plays that go against us and think- hey, we're just a play away

 

they always seem to forget about the big plays that go our way like the fumble out of the endzone that would have effectively sealed the game

[Einstein's Dog]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is the same kind of logic that has folks thinking the Bills WR group is gonna be sneaky excellent.

 

Speaking of the WR debacle, don't you have any blame for McD here?  The Brady/McD/Beane team has chosen this path.

 

Based on the past I like McD, but looking ahead I am not pleased.  When the times get tough and the resources are limited the offensive weapons are down on the list.

 

Look at what someone like B Callahan is doing at Tennessee - C Ridley/DHop/Boyd + Burks.  I wonder what that guy would have surrounded Josh with.

 

I think priorities would be different with a Ben Johnson regime. 

I bet B Belichick would love the opportunity to clobber NE a few times and get a ring here.

[Rampant Buffalo]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The plan wasn't about playing tighter it was about confusing Mahomes and making him hold the ball. Was a good adjustment, no question. 

 

But the Bills have had success against Mahomes too. Sadly not in the post season. Why that is, hard to say, lots of factors. But we are not that different schematically so I am reluctant to put it down to that. 

 

In our postseason games against them, our defensive strategy has been, "Take away the big play. Let them have the short to intermediate stuff." That strategy has failed nearly completely, at least in the postseason.

 

Why have we had some regular season success against the Chiefs? I remember one year when the Chiefs went through a period of offensive disorganization. Biemeny and Reid were not on the same page. The Bills benefited from that, in our regular season game against them. They got their act together by the time the postseason came around.

 

There were times when Patrick Mahomes hadn't yet learned to take the underneath stuff, even when that's what we were giving him. If he's looking for the big play, even when that's the one thing our defense is actually taking away, that's going to make our defensive strategy look maybe better than it deserves to.

 

Let's say we continue using the same defensive strategy we've used in the past. Our future postseason results are likely to resemble our previous postseason results, rather than anything that's happened in the regular season.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

In our postseason games against them, our defensive strategy has been, "Take away the big play. Let them have the short to intermediate stuff." That strategy has failed nearly completely, at least in the postseason.

 

Why have we had some regular season success against the Chiefs? I remember one year when the Chiefs went through a period of offensive disorganization. Biemeny and Reid were not on the same page. The Bills benefited from that, in our regular season game against them. They got their act together by the time the postseason came around.

 

There were times when Patrick Mahomes hadn't yet learned to take the underneath stuff, even when that's what we were giving him. If he's looking for the big play, even when that's the one thing our defense is actually taking away, that's going to make our defensive strategy look maybe better than it deserves to.

 

Let's say we continue using the same defensive strategy we've used in the past. Our future postseason results are likely to resemble our previous postseason results, rather than anything that's happened in the regular season.

I’ll regret asking this but how do you stop the 3x Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs? The entire league is awaiting your answer!

Edited June 28 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’ll regret asking this but how do you stop the 3x Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs? The entire league is awaiting your answer!

 

Look at the Bucs Super Bowl win over the Chiefs a few years ago or the Giants beating the Pats in the Super Bowl twice. Strong pass rushes with their front four that made both Mahomes and Brady uncomfortable in the pocket in those games. It has to start there. Unfortunately, our pass rush with our front four isn't that great.

[nedboy7]

What is the point of debating all this anymore?  People dont budge on their opinions.  I dont give a ***** what most people's opinion on anything is on here. 

[Rampant Buffalo]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’ll regret asking this but how do you stop the 3x Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs? The entire league is awaiting your answer!

 

As I pointed out a few posts ago, under McDermott the Bills defense has never generated more than two stops in a postseason game against the Chiefs or Bengals. That type of defensive collapse is atypical of other defenses the Chiefs face in the postseason. In the year of 13 seconds, the Steelers defense got six stops in their postseason game against the Chiefs. Ditto the Bengals defense. This past Super Bowl, the 49ers defense got seven stops. That's 3.5 times better than anything McDermott has ever done in a postseason game against the Chiefs.

 

When your defense gets six or even seven defensive stops, that gives your team a good chance to win the game. When your defense gets just two stops, the outcome of the game has pretty much been determined.

 

 

 

Edited June 28 by Rampant Buffalo

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

McDermNOT

I've seen that account, it's the guy who says things that have happened are impossible.