PBF81 Posted June 27 Posted June 27 Good luck with the Under. 8 of his 15 rushing TDs were in his last 6 games under Brady. It was one of the hallmarks of the Brady offense. At least we're getting warmer on what's going on under Brady. Anyway, if he produces rushing TDs at the same rate under Brady as he did this past season, then he'll have around 20. It was worse under Brady in the playoffs where he averaged 10 carries for 73 yards & 1.5 TDs/game. Quote
Special K Posted June 27 Author Posted June 27 6 hours ago, Buckets said: .5 ??? 18 hours ago, Special K said: I added the .5 to prevent the dreaded "push"..........no pushes allowed, you've got to pick a side! 👍 Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted June 27 Posted June 27 On 6/26/2024 at 12:52 AM, Freddie's Dead said: Let Josh be Josh. Dude is a weapon. Telling him not to run is like driving a Lambo below the speed limit. All Josh's injuries have occurred in the pocket, but the hand-wringing over him running continues. I'll never understand it. It’s called wear & tear. I can’t count how many times I’ve cringed when Josh’s head gets violently slammed onto the turf. I love the hurdles and beast mode type runs as much as the next guy, but most of this fan base is getting sick and tired of the constant punishment. It’s something that should be saved for the playoffs and not the regular season. It’ a cool stat for fantasy football nerds, but I want my franchise QB playing well into his 30s and not suffering CTE issues later down the road. Brady is heading the right direction w/ Cook eclipsing 1000 yards, but Josh is still running the ball entirely too much for my liking. We know he can throw it and throw it damn well, use that size & strength for maneuvering and breaking arm tackles in the pocket. Cam Newton should be a cautionary tale for everyone. Nobody is invincible. Quote
GoBills808 Posted June 27 Posted June 27 Shade -110 under and +105 over Still taking the under but close But I think the over is bad for Bills in general personally Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted June 27 Posted June 27 6 hours ago, PBF81 said: Good luck with the Under. 8 of his 15 rushing TDs were in his last 6 games under Brady. It was one of the hallmarks of the Brady offense. At least we're getting warmer on what's going on under Brady. Anyway, if he produces rushing TDs at the same rate under Brady as he did this past season, then he'll have around 20. It was worse under Brady in the playoffs where he averaged 10 carries for 73 yards & 1.5 TDs/game. I think Brady and the coaching staff knew that the playoffs were slipping out of their grasp so I think they pretty much told Josh to get the job done by all means necessary. I don’t even think he goes over 10 for the year. Ray Davis is a huge indicator of the direction they want to head. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 6 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: I think Brady and the coaching staff knew that the playoffs were slipping out of their grasp so I think they pretty much told Josh to get the job done by all means necessary. Of course, but that's not much of an offensive plan though, is it. It's simply stepping out of the way and letting a QB that you're lucky to have that's getting little support from you do it all. That's the point of a lot of people, if all we're going to do is step aside and let Josh play whatever version of streetball that he wants to during the playoffs, it's pretty unlikely we'll win a Super Bowl much less get our offense humming on all cylinders. 6 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: I don’t even think he goes over 10 for the year. Ray Davis is a huge indicator of the direction they want to head. Davis is no different than Moss. He brings an even lighter draft profile and potential to the NFL than either Singletary or Moss. They couldn't use Sing/Moss effectively, don't expect the to be able to use Davis effectively. And what happened to Cook, all we heard about last season is how Cook was playing at a pro-bowl level, now the hype has receded somewhat without any further games having been played. Over 10 on Allen rushing TDs would seem to be a no-brainer. We'll find out soon. 1 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 Ray Davis will get probably 8 of his TDs last year Under is an easy bet IMHO Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Ray Davis will get probably 8 of his TDs last year Under is an easy bet IMHO Another charity wager? 10 O/U? Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 3 hours ago, PBF81 said: Another charity wager? 10 O/U? I’m not that confident haha. But I am down for a charity wager, but I’m not betting against Josh Allen ha 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: I’m not that confident haha. But I am down for a charity wager, but I’m not betting against Josh Allen ha LOL Fair. Friendly then. 🙂 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 28 Posted June 28 On 6/27/2024 at 9:04 AM, PBF81 said: Good luck with the Under. 8 of his 15 rushing TDs were in his last 6 games under Brady. It was one of the hallmarks of the Brady offense. At least we're getting warmer on what's going on under Brady. Anyway, if he produces rushing TDs at the same rate under Brady as he did this past season, then he'll have around 20. It was worse under Brady in the playoffs where he averaged 10 carries for 73 yards & 1.5 TDs/game. I think you're being a little overdramatic. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/josh-allen-rushing-touchdown-distance-average-2023 You can look at the average distance per TD. It's about 3.5 ypc which means almost all of them are near or at the goaline. That doesn't mean we are going in the direction of being a running team. It means Josh Allen is a weapon at the goal line because he can run, pass or sneak it in. If you're at the 1, it's like a 97% success rate he's going to sneak it in so that's why you do it. I don't want to take away Allen's true dual threat. I 100% agree with Leslie Frazier saying defenses can play back more when you don't have the threat of Allen running. Allen loves to throw down field, him running prevents them just sitting back. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: I think you're being a little overdramatic. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/josh-allen-rushing-touchdown-distance-average-2023 You can look at the average distance per TD. It's about 3.5 ypc which means almost all of them are near or at the goaline. That doesn't mean we are going in the direction of being a running team. It means Josh Allen is a weapon at the goal line because he can run, pass or sneak it in. If you're at the 1, it's like a 97% success rate he's going to sneak it in so that's why you do it. I don't want to take away Allen's true dual threat. I 100% agree with Leslie Frazier saying defenses can play back more when you don't have the threat of Allen running. Allen loves to throw down field, him running prevents them just sitting back. No, it's not overdramatic at all. I just made a lengthy post in an exchange with hondo on page 4 of the biggest lingering questionmarks thread, you can see some of the other evidence there. But to tackle your data here, to start, we have to look at the difference in rushing from years prior, which again, some of that was addressed in the aforementioned post. But he had on/about twice the number of rushing TDs this season than in prior seasons. But part of it also is why does he even have to do the goal line carries? Part of it is because Cook is useless down there. Now we drafted Davis, is he really going to be much different than Singletary or Moss. Murray had 17 carries down near the goal line, 4 for TDs. Will Davis be better than that? He's similarly sized as Moss and Singletary. Why would they use him at the goal line? Murray was bigger and far more experienced. Either way, Josh had 15 rushing TDs this past season. Five from 16, 13, 11, 10 and 9. Two from 6. The other 8 were one from 3 out, two from 2 out, and five from 1 out. That's 15 carries for 83 yards if my quick math is correct. But under Brady in those 7 games, Allen had 8, over half of those rushing TDs, from 16, 9, 6, 2, and 1 four times. That's 8 carries for 37 yards. Even with those subtracted and then, after that, extrapolated for a full season, Allen would still post 134 carries on the season which is 10 more than his max rushing attempt season. But the question is why would they not run Josh at the goal line? Davis isn't much different than Singletary or Moss. But you also said it doesn't mean that we're going in the direction of being a running team, but McD has plainly stated that they want to get the rushing game going more. There was even a ridiculous discussion here in defense of that about a year ago talking about how the league is going back to ball-control football with more teams rushing again. But if that's true and McD believes it, then why has he continually, and still has, crafted his D to defend the pass. Cook's carries also jumped about 40% greater per game under Brady & complimentary football, by nearly 5 carries/game more. Murray's carries jumped by about the same percentage under Brady in the four games that he was used. Johnson was unused as a rusher under Dorsey, he came in under Brady and provided about 5 carries more per game. So yeah, we were statistically running the ball more and throwing less. Allen's attempts decreased marginally. On Brady's watch our average carries per game increased from 25.4 to 36.9, a 45% increase in running the ball. The balance of Run to Pass went from 25.4/35.0 or 43%, to 36.9/32.7 or 53%. We ran more than we threw. That doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense when you have Allen. Since we like to compare ourselves to KC, KC ran just under 40% of the time. Mahomes had 635 attempts to Allen's 579, and Mahomes had worse receivers generally speaking. It worked OK in the early going, as things often do with changes, but as teams caught on and adjusted, as they always do, not so much. The last three games were all nail-biters and our rushing production from our RBs plummeted as Brady's tenure proceeded. Edited June 28 by PBF81 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 28 Posted June 28 11 minutes ago, PBF81 said: No, it's not overdramatic at all. I just made a lengthy post in an exchange with hondo on page 4 of the biggest lingering questionmarks thread, you can see some of the other evidence there. But to tackle your data here, to start, we have to look at the difference in rushing from years prior, which again, some of that was addressed in the aforementioned post. But he had on/about twice the number of rushing TDs this season than in prior seasons. But part of it also is why does he even have to do the goal line carries? Part of it is because Cook is useless down there. Now we drafted Davis, is he really going to be much different than Singletary or Moss. Murray had 17 carries down near the goal line, 4 for TDs. Will Davis be better than that? He's similarly sized as Moss and Singletary. Why would they use him at the goal line? Murray was bigger and far more experienced. Either way, Josh had 15 rushing TDs this past season. Five from 16, 13, 11, 10 and 9. Two from 6. The other 8 were one from 3 out, two from 2 out, and five from 1 out. That's 15 carries for 83 yards if my quick math is correct. But under Brady in those 7 games, Allen had 8, over half of those rushing TDs, from 16, 9, 6, 2, and 1 four times. That's 8 carries for 37 yards. Even with those subtracted and then, after that, extrapolated for a full season, Allen would still post 134 carries on the season which is 10 more than his max rushing attempt season. But the question is why would they not run Josh at the goal line? Davis isn't much different than Singletary or Moss. But you also said it doesn't mean that we're going in the direction of being a running team, but McD has plainly stated that they want to get the rushing game going more. There was even a ridiculous discussion here in defense of that about a year ago talking about how the league is going back to ball-control football with more teams rushing again. But if that's true and McD believes it, then why has he continually, and still has, crafted his D to defend the pass. Cook's carries also jumped about 40% greater per game under Brady & complimentary football, by nearly 5 carries/game more. Murray's carries jumped by about the same percentage under Brady in the four games that he was used. Johnson was unused as a rusher under Dorsey, he came in under Brady and provided about 5 carries more per game. So yeah, we were statistically running the ball more and throwing less. Allen's attempts decreased marginally. On Brady's watch our average carries per game increased from 25.4 to 36.9, a 45% increase in running the ball. The balance of Run to Pass went from 25.4/35.0 or 43%, to 36.9/32.7 or 53%. We ran more than we threw. That doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense when you have Allen. Since we like to compare ourselves to KC, KC ran just under 40% of the time. Mahomes had 635 attempts to Allen's 579, and Mahomes had worse receivers generally speaking. It worked OK in the early going, as things often do with changes, but as teams caught on and adjusted, as they always do, not so much. The last three games were all nail-biters and our rushing production from our RBs plummeted as Brady's tenure proceeded. Yes, that particular stat you are being overdramatic. If I am the coach and I have Josh Allen inside the 5...I'm putting the ball in his hands. He has the run/pass option from there. And you are being overdramatic about Brady's offense last year. It wasn't his offense, he took over from an offense that was painful in about a 5 game stretch. After the Dolphins blowout, we went 20, 14, 25, 24, 18 and 22 with zero signs of improvement. Dorsey's offense had life in 3 games all season. We weren't getting production out of both are #1 and #2 WR's. There was a clear issue with Allen and Diggs. Davis has never been consistent. Since we weren't getting production there, James Cook started emerging and you're criticizing Brady? Why don't you wait and see what he does with a full offseason where he can run his playbook? Instead, your just jumping to this conclusion we are going to be a this run first team. We're not. The last time you were this adamant about an opinion was Terrell Bernard and don't you think that was something you jumped the gun early on too? That turned out to be the complete opposite of what you were projecting. I guarantee you were are going to be league leaders in passing and passing attempts again. We are not going to be a run heavy offense. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Yes, that particular stat you are being overdramatic. If I am the coach and I have Josh Allen inside the 5...I'm putting the ball in his hands. He has the run/pass option from there. And you are being overdramatic about Brady's offense last year. It wasn't his offense, he took over from an offense that was painful in about a 5 game stretch. After the Dolphins blowout, we went 20, 14, 25, 24, 18 and 22 with zero signs of improvement. Dorsey's offense had life in 3 games all season. We weren't getting production out of both are #1 and #2 WR's. There was a clear issue with Allen and Diggs. Davis has never been consistent. Since we weren't getting production there, James Cook started emerging and you're criticizing Brady? Why don't you wait and see what he does with a full offseason where he can run his playbook? Instead, your just jumping to this conclusion we are going to be a this run first team. We're not. The last time you were this adamant about an opinion was Terrell Bernard and don't you think that was something you jumped the gun early on too? That turned out to be the complete opposite of what you were projecting. I guarantee you were are going to be league leaders in passing and passing attempts again. We are not going to be a run heavy offense. A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. 16 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Yes, that particular stat you are being overdramatic. If I am the coach and I have Josh Allen inside the 5...I'm putting the ball in his hands. He has the run/pass option from there. And you are being overdramatic about Brady's offense last year. It wasn't his offense, he took over from an offense that was painful in about a 5 game stretch. After the Dolphins blowout, we went 20, 14, 25, 24, 18 and 22 with zero signs of improvement. Dorsey's offense had life in 3 games all season. We weren't getting production out of both are #1 and #2 WR's. There was a clear issue with Allen and Diggs. Davis has never been consistent. Since we weren't getting production there, James Cook started emerging and you're criticizing Brady? Why don't you wait and see what he does with a full offseason where he can run his playbook? Instead, your just jumping to this conclusion we are going to be a this run first team. We're not. The last time you were this adamant about an opinion was Terrell Bernard and don't you think that was something you jumped the gun early on too? That turned out to be the complete opposite of what you were projecting. I guarantee you were are going to be league leaders in passing and passing attempts again. We are not going to be a run heavy offense. A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. And you obviously completely ignored all that data. Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 28 Posted June 28 2 hours ago, PBF81 said: A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. A lot of narrative driven superficiality there. I highly doubt that we even approach leading the league in paying yards or attempts. But allow me to ask, what was the difference then between Brady's O and Dorsey's, and why does Brady get credit for us going 6-1 to finish the season? You cannot have it both ways. And you obviously completely ignored all that data. My entire argument is that we can't judge Brady's offense last year on what he's going to do this year. We didn't get production out of our #1 and #2 and we have replaced them. I don't know what the difference is because we haven't seen a full offseason Brady offense. I didn't ignore the data, I've explained it. I say wait and see what we got with a full offseason of him building and constructing his offense. You don't want to do that and arguing that your 8 game sample size last year is undeniable evidence we are not going to pass a lot this year. Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted June 28 Posted June 28 15 hours ago, PBF81 said: Of course, but that's not much of an offensive plan though, is it. It's simply stepping out of the way and letting a QB that you're lucky to have that's getting little support from you do it all. That's the point of a lot of people, if all we're going to do is step aside and let Josh play whatever version of streetball that he wants to during the playoffs, it's pretty unlikely we'll win a Super Bowl much less get our offense humming on all cylinders. Davis is no different than Moss. He brings an even lighter draft profile and potential to the NFL than either Singletary or Moss. They couldn't use Sing/Moss effectively, don't expect the to be able to use Davis effectively. And what happened to Cook, all we heard about last season is how Cook was playing at a pro-bowl level, now the hype has receded somewhat without any further games having been played. Over 10 on Allen rushing TDs would seem to be a no-brainer. We'll find out soon. I’ve seen tape of both Moss and Davis. Davis is the far superior back by a mile. He’s much better catching the ball (7 rec TDs last year.) Better speed, acceleration, and elusiveness. The only things Moss has him on is power. Moss instincts are crap. I’ve never seen a less natural looking runner in all my life. Basically a poor man’s Trent Richardson. The only reason he was able to have some moderate success in Indy was because of their dominant line. My dead grandmother could average 1000 yards behind that unit. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 28 Posted June 28 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: My entire argument is that we can't judge Brady's offense last year on what he's going to do this year. We didn't get production out of our #1 and #2 and we have replaced them. I don't know what the difference is because we haven't seen a full offseason Brady offense. I didn't ignore the data, I've explained it. I say wait and see what we got with a full offseason of him building and constructing his offense. You don't want to do that and arguing that your 8 game sample size last year is undeniable evidence we are not going to pass a lot this year. No, what I'm doing is stating that any changes post-Dorsey were obviously driven by Brady and which unmistakeably resulted in a fast greater emphasis on the running game. That should be more than clear by now. The team, local, national media all pointed out out, proudly. The extent to which that was made clear to Brady by McD is unknown, but we'd have to be folks to think that Brady did that all by himself for several reasons. As to the contrived #1/#2 thing, as you'll find out this season, that was a self-fulfilling prophecy without going into the details, ... again. Doesn't it raise questions to you that Davis "lost a step" too and that Kincaid & Shakir both "gained a step" as soon as Brady took over? This staff starting at the top hasn't been open or honest with us regarding Dogs for well over a year now. That seems to be McD's MO, the utmost of secrecy. That way no one can hold him accountable. 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: My entire argument is that we can't judge Brady's offense last year on what he's going to do this year. We didn't get production out of our #1 and #2 and we have replaced them. I don't know what the difference is because we haven't seen a full offseason Brady offense. I didn't ignore the data, I've explained it. I say wait and see what we got with a full offseason of him building and constructing his offense. You don't want to do that and arguing that your 8 game sample size last year is undeniable evidence we are not going to pass a lot this year. If you really think that Allen's going to achieve record highs with this receiving cadre I'm not even sure what to say at that point. 33 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: I’ve seen tape of both Moss and Davis. Davis is the far superior back by a mile. He’s much better catching the ball (7 rec TDs last year.) Better speed, acceleration, and elusiveness. The only things Moss has him on is power. Moss instincts are crap. I’ve never seen a less natural looking runner in all my life. Basically a poor man’s Trent Richardson. The only reason he was able to have some moderate success in Indy was because of their dominant line. My dead grandmother could average 1000 yards behind that unit. Until he gets to the NFL. Read what all the "experts" said on both or-Draft. Also, depends upon how he's used. Singletary has already proven that he was capable of more than we got out of him. 1 Quote
Royale with Cheese Posted June 28 Posted June 28 2 hours ago, PBF81 said: No, what I'm doing is stating that any changes post-Dorsey were obviously driven by Brady and which unmistakeably resulted in a fast greater emphasis on the running game. That should be more than clear by now. The team, local, national media all pointed out out, proudly. The extent to which that was made clear to Brady by McD is unknown, but we'd have to be folks to think that Brady did that all by himself for several reasons. As to the contrived #1/#2 thing, as you'll find out this season, that was a self-fulfilling prophecy without going into the details, ... again. Doesn't it raise questions to you that Davis "lost a step" too and that Kincaid & Shakir both "gained a step" as soon as Brady took over? This staff starting at the top hasn't been open or honest with us regarding Dogs for well over a year now. That seems to be McD's MO, the utmost of secrecy. That way no one can hold him accountable. If you really think that Allen's going to achieve record highs with this receiving cadre I'm not even sure what to say at that point. Until he gets to the NFL. Read what all the "experts" said on both or-Draft. Also, depends upon how he's used. Singletary has already proven that he was capable of more than we got out of him. To the bolded 1st part. Geezus dude really? McDermott didn't tell the public everything that was happening behind closed doors because he didn't want to be held accountable? Accountable to who lol? You want a coach in which if there is a locker room dispute to air out that news to us? Why? Im not believing that you're serious...no way. To the bolded part 2. Not in any way did I say Allen is going to break record highs. I have stated very clearly I am in a wait and see and that I don't know what to expect from Brady's offense except that we will throw the ball. Where did you come up with that? Is this how far you're willing to reach to completely make up something? 1 Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted June 28 Posted June 28 2 hours ago, PBF81 said: No, what I'm doing is stating that any changes post-Dorsey were obviously driven by Brady and which unmistakeably resulted in a fast greater emphasis on the running game. That should be more than clear by now. The team, local, national media all pointed out out, proudly. The extent to which that was made clear to Brady by McD is unknown, but we'd have to be folks to think that Brady did that all by himself for several reasons. As to the contrived #1/#2 thing, as you'll find out this season, that was a self-fulfilling prophecy without going into the details, ... again. Doesn't it raise questions to you that Davis "lost a step" too and that Kincaid & Shakir both "gained a step" as soon as Brady took over? This staff starting at the top hasn't been open or honest with us regarding Dogs for well over a year now. That seems to be McD's MO, the utmost of secrecy. That way no one can hold him accountable. If you really think that Allen's going to achieve record highs with this receiving cadre I'm not even sure what to say at that point. Until he gets to the NFL. Read what all the "experts" said on both or-Draft. Also, depends upon how he's used. Singletary has already proven that he was capable of more than we got out of him. Singletary looked just like Singletary. 800 or so yards and a handful of TDs. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 29 Posted June 29 5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said: To the bolded 1st part. Geezus dude really? McDermott didn't tell the public everything that was happening behind closed doors because he didn't want to be held accountable? Accountable to who lol? You want a coach in which if there is a locker room dispute to air out that news to us? Why? Im not believing that you're serious...no way. To the bolded part 2. Not in any way did I say Allen is going to break record highs. I have stated very clearly I am in a wait and see and that I don't know what to expect from Brady's offense except that we will throw the ball. Where did you come up with that? Is this how far you're willing to reach to completely make up something? I think I confused you on that with someone else. That's one of the issues with these mixed threads. Either way, we've beaten this to death, we'll see what happens this season. But majority fan opinion means nothing otherwise in that context. It's not an analysis, it's emotion. 5 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: Singletary looked just like Singletary. 800 or so yards and a handful of TDs. Well yeah, if that's the extent of your analysis. Then it is. LOL Nice work! Quote
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