Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[BillsVet]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I agree with your (2). It just isn't what we have seen with McDermott here. Everyone wails on about him being a defensive guy but he has let his OCs run some of the most pass heavy offenses in football. If he really believed philosophically in small ball the last 6/7 years would have looked very different. My concern is I am not sure I agree with your (1). Stretching the field isn't just about team speed. It isn't a 100m race. You have to have guys who can win and separate 1v1 down the field consistently. That is about release, it's about speed, it's about footwork, body control, route running... that is a bit my worry. 

 

Question isn't how much that they were a passing offense or how much room McD gave the OC.  It's that he deep-down was opposed to it.  

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/

 

"McDermott in 2021 on the pass-heavy offense: “That has not been my message from Day 1, I can promise you that.  If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want. That identity needs to embody toughness.”

 

It is extremely odd that a HC would say this having just seen the best offensive season from a Bills QB in team history and being in the AFC CG.  A season they averaged more than 31 points, went 7-1 to finish the season and scored 303 points in those 8 games.  

 

It is extremely odd that running it more would be a prime goal the following season when, were it not for a defensive melt-down the following season, Buffalo would have returned to the AFC CG.  

 

Or, that following that 2020 season, they wouldn't add any significant offensive weapons in 2021 or 2022 aside from a RB who didn't play that much as a rookie. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

Okay, fair enough. IYO, Dorsey did a good job as OC. 

 

 

Yeah I think having the second ranked offense in the NFL saddled with Lil' Dummy McKenzie as WR3 for much of the season is a job well done.    It sounds stupid to suggest it wasn't.    I don't see leaning into how Allen SHOULD be used if you want to get 15 great years out of him as "EPA chasing".   He was a QB doing what was right for his QB.

 

Dorsey suffered from misty, water-colored memories that fans like yourself had of Brian Daboll......it was as if Daboll had died and people forgot what a piece of sh!t his offense could look like when he got outsmarted.    And it didn't have to be a fellow genius to outsmart him.   He started his Bills career with the worst 8 game offensive stretch in team history(lowest scoring NFL team thru half a season since the merger which is why he'd been fired 3 times at prior OC gigs) and was providing diminishing returns in his final season........worse than the stretch of modest play that got Dorsey FIRED.    

 

Dorsey was scapegoated.   But like I said,  it's not like he was a generational play caller he just put the focus where it should have been while Daboll put it on himself.

 

  

Edited August 9 by BADOLBILZ

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I think having the second ranked offense in the NFL saddled with Lil' Dummy McKenzie as WR3 for much of the season is a job well done.    It's sound stupid to suggest it wasn't.    I don't see leaning into how Allen SHOULD be used if you want to get 15 great years out of him as "EPA chasing".   He was a QB doing what was right for his QB.

 

Dorsey suffered from misty, water-colored memories that fans like yourself had of Brian Daboll......it was as if Daboll had died and people forgot what a piece of sh!t his offense could look like when he got outsmarted.    And it didn't have to be a fellow genius to outsmart him.   He started his Bills career with the worst 8 game offensive stretch in team history(lowest scoring NFL team thru half a season since the merger which is why he'd been fired 3 times at prior OC gigs) and was providing diminishing returns in his final season........worse than the stretch of modest play that got Dorsey FIRED.    

 

Dorsey was scapegoated.   But like I said,  it's not like he was a generational play caller he just put the focus where it should have been while Daboll put it on himself.

 

  

Lmao Dorsey was “saddled” with Diggs, Davis, Knox and McKenzie with a generational QB. Daboll oversaw a bad offense with Zay Jones as WR1 and Bob Foster as WR2 with a rookie QB. 
 

Certainly an apples to apples comparison. Yup!

[BADOLBILZ]

19 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Honestly I've never felt under any of our three OCs in the Allen era that the Bills offense has ever over-performed relative to its talent on the field. The closest we got was under the playoff run with Daboll coming out of the 2021 season but it's hard to separate that playoff run from the QB performance and that's the same season we put up 3 points against the worst team in the league and our offense was disgustingly bad all through December, so 🤷 

 

FWIW I thought Brady made some good changes when he took over, most notably redirecting targets away from low efficiency players to higher efficiency players. But there is some selective memory going on. The best offensive game of the year came under Dorsey against Miami at home. Brady was in control for an almost disastrous loss to the lame duck Chargers. Diggs completely fell off a cliff halfway through the season and the defense statistically was the worst defense in the league for a stretch in the middle there. Those factors are what led to a mid-season slump. The offense had its typical ups and downs throughout the year regardless of who the OC was, the only difference is that under Brady the highs were lower and the  lows were higher.

 

I also never cared for the Dorsey hiring to begin with. I figured with Allen and Diggs in their prime, why hire a first time play caller? But I don't feel much better about Brady because we didn't actively try to do better. He got the job pretty much handed to him. At least he has some play calling experience unlike his predecessor but I don't expect him to overcome the personnel issues. He will have to be an elite OC for our offense to be ranked better than 10th IMO.

 

 

Hilarius Toney lines up on side........Bills lose that game and miss the playoffs.......the post-season impression of Brady is he couldn't get the ball to their superstar receiver Diggs.    Failing grade.  

 

That is how close the narrative about Brady is from being VERY different.    I liked a lot of what he did but they were going there anyway.   McDermott just hadn't reached the "smash glass" state of emergency until after that Denver debacle.

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lmao Dorsey was “saddled” with Diggs, Davis, Knox and McKenzie with a generational QB. Daboll oversaw a bad offense with Zay Jones as WR1 and Bob Foster as WR2 with a rookie QB. 
 

Certainly an apples to apples comparison. Yup!

 

That's not what I said.   McKenzie was the worst WR3 they'd had since Allen broke out.   Daboll had the other guys too so don't be an idiot.   Daboll didn't oversee a "bad" offense.......he oversaw an epically bad offense.   Which was consistent with him being fired after just 1 season in each of his 3 prior NFL OC gigs.   

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Question isn't how much that they were a passing offense or how much room McD gave the OC.  It's that he deep-down was opposed to it.  

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/

 

"McDermott in 2021 on the pass-heavy offense: “That has not been my message from Day 1, I can promise you that.  If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want. That identity needs to embody toughness.”

 

It is extremely odd that a HC would say this having just seen the best offensive season from a Bills QB in team history and being in the AFC CG.  A season they averaged more than 31 points, went 7-1 to finish the season and scored 303 points in those 8 games.  

 

It is extremely odd that running it more would be a prime goal the following season when, were it not for a defensive melt-down the following season, Buffalo would have returned to the AFC CG.  

 

Or, that following that 2020 season, they wouldn't add any significant offensive weapons in 2021 or 2022 aside from a RB who didn't play that much as a rookie. 

 

Yea I don't think the proper analysis of what they have done supports that though. We know there were times with Daboll where there was friction because McDermott felt they couldn't/wouldn't run the ball even when they needed to but overall he has overseen offenses that have passed it and passed it deep under Daboll and then even more so under Dorsey and even under Brady tbh the issue at the backend of last season was the inability to complete the shot play more than a reluctance to call it. 

[JohnNord]

On 6/24/2024 at 3:45 PM, hondo in seattle said:

I expect to be so wrong by the end of the year that I'll be embarrassed by this post.  But here goes anyway...

My guess for the statistical performances of our top 10 pass catchers this upcoming season:

 

 

 

 

 

Shakir will be a bigger part of the O this year, so I project a sizeable improvement in his stats.

 

Samuel will be a starter and enjoy one of his better years with Josh throwing to him but not his very best.

 

Kincaid will enjoy a modest improvement over his rookie campaign.  A healthy Knox will get some of the TE targets.

 

Coleman will need to learn how to separate against NFL DBs and will be replaced in some packages by Claypool or MVS. 

 

Claypool and MVS will both get significant playing time, often at Coleman's expense.

 

Knox won't enjoy a banner year, losing targets to Kincaid, but will produce better than his injury-diminished 2023 season.

 

Cook will get a few less targets than last year simply because there are so many other options.  His drops don't help.  

 

Davis will contribute more in the passing game than Murray's 119 yards.

Hollins makes the 53 but is the forgotten man in the WR room.

 

Josh's 4603 yards will be, by a small margin, his most yards in a season yet (in what will be his 3rd 17-game season).  

 

Interested in how other folks project this breaking down.

 

 

Seems about right, I think you’ll see more yardage and receptions for Kincaid and less for Samuel and/or Shakir.  
 

Even if he makes the team, I don’t see Claypool getting that many receptions.  I’d probably flip your prediction for Hollins and whoever the WR6 will be.

[Don Otreply]

44 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Question isn't how much that they were a passing offense or how much room McD gave the OC.  It's that he deep-down was opposed to it.  

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/

 

"McDermott in 2021 on the pass-heavy offense: “That has not been my message from Day 1, I can promise you that.  If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want. That identity needs to embody toughness.”

 

It is extremely odd that a HC would say this having just seen the best offensive season from a Bills QB in team history and being in the AFC CG.  A season they averaged more than 31 points, went 7-1 to finish the season and scored 303 points in those 8 games.  

 

It is extremely odd that running it more would be a prime goal the following season when, were it not for a defensive melt-down the following season, Buffalo would have returned to the AFC CG.  

 

Or, that following that 2020 season, they wouldn't add any significant offensive weapons in 2021 or 2022 aside from a RB who didn't play that much as a rookie. 

Imo, fwiw, McDs post season defense ( for a multitude of reasons) has under performed, and he believes that longer sustained drives are what his “D” needs to perform well, especially in the playoffs, to me with all the rotation and endless tv time out( four hours to play a one hour game) these guys should be good to go. This says to me that there is an inherent flaw in how the defense is being deployed/schemed come the post season, I’m hoping for some changes to how the “D” operates in the playoffs, always hoping for the best 👍

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I don't think the proper analysis of what they have done supports that though. We know there were times with Daboll where there was friction because McDermott felt they couldn't/wouldn't run the ball even when they needed to but overall he has overseen offenses that have passed it and passed it deep under Daboll and then even more so under Dorsey and even under Brady tbh the issue at the backend of last season was the inability to complete the shot play more than a reluctance to call it. 

 

Did you read the article?  Among other things, a key question was why did they built a more pass-blocking oriented OL paired with average at best and journeymen caliber RBs?  Yet, the HC was out there lamenting the running game and increasingly blaming the OC (of which some was deserved).  

 

I'm not concluding that Daboll was this offensive savant play-caller, because he wasn't.  But the analysis always seems to be at field level when it's clear there's personnel and philosophy issues which are hindering them before they start.   

 

I don't expect the HC to do a mea culpa, but after Daboll was gone, as the writer notes, they signed veteran run-specific OLineman and their running game improved who were liabilities as pass blockers, but the goal was achieved...at the expense of the passing game.

 

The whole of this organization, however, is punctuated by a risk-averse coach who can't shake from his roots and won't trust anyone unless they are in lock-step with him. 

 

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, fwiw, McDs post season defense ( for a multitude of reasons) has under performed, and he believes that longer sustained drives are what his “D” needs to perform well, especially in the playoffs, to me with all the rotation and endless tv time out( four hours to play a one hour game) these guys should be good to go. This says to me that there is an inherent flaw in how the defense is being deployed/schemed come the post season, I’m hoping for some changes to how the “D” operates in the playoffs, always hoping for the best 👍

 

Why is it the responsibility of the offense to protect the defense to the degree we are ascribing to the HC?  It's completely misguided given who the QB is.  

 

And, is it a good plan to expect a defense that relies on 7-8 DL, 2-3 LBs, and 5-6 DBs to largely remain healthy for a 17 game schedule?  That requires a great deal of fortune, but comes at the cost over-restricting the offense.  I see people here complain loudly when defensive players are lost for the season as if it only happens in Buffalo.  If that's the plan, it ain't realistic.  

 

I can acknowledge last year's Divisional Round game-plan was necessitated by having multiple defenders out (Milano, Bernard, Hyde) but for a team that drafts so much defense, it's not optional to keep young players on the bench sometimes.  

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Did you read the article?  Among other things, a key question was why did they built a more pass-blocking oriented OL paired with average at best and journeymen caliber RBs?  Yet, the HC was out there lamenting the running game and increasingly blaming the OC (of which some was deserved).  

 

I'm not concluding that Daboll was this offensive savant play-caller, because he wasn't.  But the analysis always seems to be at field level when it's clear there's personnel and philosophy issues which are hindering them before they start.   

 

I don't expect the HC to do a mea culpa, but after Daboll was gone, as the writer notes, they signed veteran run-specific OLineman and their running game improved who were liabilities as pass blockers, but the goal was achieved...at the expense of the passing game.

 

The whole of this organization, however, is punctuated by a risk-averse coach who can't shake from his roots and won't trust anyone unless they are in lock-step with him. 

 

 

The Saffold decision was at the request of their (at the time) new OL coach who personally vouched for him. I think there is some truth to what you say about the philosophy being confused but I don't think it is confused as a result of being inherently risk averse. That is the bit I can't get myself to when I look at what the history of the eight years tells us. 

[Matt_In_NH]

7 receivers are not making the roster, with injuries that is possible obviously.  I think Kincaid and Hollins are underestimated.  Claypool, Cook and Davis are high

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

Did you read the article?  Among other things, a key question was why did they built a more pass-blocking oriented OL paired with average at best and journeymen caliber RBs?  Yet, the HC was out there lamenting the running game and increasingly blaming the OC (of which some was deserved).  

 

I'm not concluding that Daboll was this offensive savant play-caller, because he wasn't.  But the analysis always seems to be at field level when it's clear there's personnel and philosophy issues which are hindering them before they start.   

 

I don't expect the HC to do a mea culpa, but after Daboll was gone, as the writer notes, they signed veteran run-specific OLineman and their running game improved who were liabilities as pass blockers, but the goal was achieved...at the expense of the passing game.

 

The whole of this organization, however, is punctuated by a risk-averse coach who can't shake from his roots and won't trust anyone unless they are in lock-step with him. 

 

 

Why is it the responsibility of the offense to protect the defense to the degree we are ascribing to the HC?  It's completely misguided given who the QB is.  

 

And, is it a good plan to expect a defense that relies on 7-8 DL, 2-3 LBs, and 5-6 DBs to largely remain healthy for a 17 game schedule?  That requires a great deal of fortune, but comes at the cost over-restricting the offense.  I see people here complain loudly when defensive players are lost for the season as if it only happens in Buffalo.  If that's the plan, it ain't realistic.  

 

I can acknowledge last year's Divisional Round game-plan was necessitated by having multiple defenders out (Milano, Bernard, Hyde) but for a team that drafts so much defense, it's not optional to keep young players on the bench sometimes.  

I don’t disagree,  imo, it is incumbent upon McD to come up with a different way of doing business with the defense, because currently what he is doing is and has not worked in the post season, and his scheme failures are, frankly not the offense’s problem, it’s the defense that needs reworking. 
 

 I do understand that a “somewhat “ methodical march downfield will keep the opponent’s offense off the field longer and put more wear and tear on the opposing defense, but this should not come at the expense of scoring points when that option presents itself,

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with your (2). It just isn't what we have seen with McDermott here. Everyone wails on about him being a defensive guy but he has let his OCs run some of the most pass heavy offenses in football. If he really believed philosophically in small ball the last 6/7 years would have looked very different. My concern is I am not sure I agree with your (1). Stretching the field isn't just about team speed. It isn't a 100m race. You have to have guys who can win and separate 1v1 down the field consistently. That is about release, it's about speed, it's about footwork, body control, route running... that is a bit my worry. 

 

I can't say that's not a legitimate worry because it crossed my mind as I wrote my response.

MVS was seeminly brought here to be the guy who can separate deep.  But I think his talent for that is overrated by some.  In any case, I think he puts grease on his hands instead of stickum.  

 

But I also wonder a few things...

 

• Samuel has good burst and top end speed.  Although he hasn't been used extensively as a deep threat, he may have some potential there.
• Keon does haven't tremendous speed but not all deep threats do.  Gabe Davis was - supposedly - a deep threat and he only ran a 4.54 at the combine.  In a different era, Steve Largent was a 4.7 guy and became a viable deep threat and HOFer regardless.  Jordy Nelson ran a 4.51 and found ways to be productive deep.  Etc.  I probably haven't watched enough tape of Keon to see if he has this ability but I'm not sure how relevant college film is when his QB wasn't Josh.  The two might find a chemistry that Keon didn't have before.  
• Mack Hollins isn't a 'deep threat' per se but he's not just an underneath, safety-valve kind of dude either.  In 2022, the only year he was targeted a lot, Hollins' Targeted Air Yards of 12.7 yards ranked him 19th in the league for average depth of target.  

And there's this.  Allen only completed 31.6% of his deep balls last year, 24th in the league.  Our deep game wasn't very effective in 2023.   I don't think it's going to get worse.  It may get better - not because of better wideouts but because of better coordinating/scheming.  

 

As a fan, I hope.  

 

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Seems about right, I think you’ll see more yardage and receptions for Kincaid and less for Samuel and/or Shakir.  
 

Even if he makes the team, I don’t see Claypool getting that many receptions.  I’d probably flip your prediction for Hollins and whoever the WR6 will be.

 

 

Claypool's roster spot seems far less sure to me now than it did back then.  And Hollins will fill the role that I expected either MVS or Claypool to fill.  

 

With all the doom and gloom some fans felt, I've been okay with the Beane put together on a budget.  Shakir and Samuel are legit starters.  To field a decent, if not great, threesome of WRs we just needed one guy to step up between Coleman, Hollins, MVS, and Claypool.   It's always seemed likely at least one of them would.