Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Understand.  I see this model used in Carolina as something they need to overhaul to meet with league trends and because they have a franchise QB.  

 

Never in Carolina did they have a QB, not even Newton, who was near as good as Josh.  Yet, they've gone from working to or actually putting WRs around him (2019-20) to then going the route of ignoring/under-resourcing the position in (2021-22) to deciding they'd be more complementary in 2023-24.  

 

I'd even argue their approach with WR's is always a step-behind in that they went with bigger catch-radius types when the league was going away from it in 2017-18, to returning to it as the league transitions back to the shifty guys.  

 

They come off as without an appropriate offensive strategy or being ahead of the personnel game.  

 

The move to shifty guys in the middle of 2018 was Daboll driven. Who knows what the shift the other way has been driven by this time. Does Brady have that influence? Is it Beane and McDermott? Or is there a scheme / talent mismatch which you know, seems odd give how close the GM and HC are, but then Kaiir Elam was a classic mismatch for this scheme and they did that sooooo...

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol, what are you talking about, I’ve already said I was wrong about Diggs getting traded this year.  I fully admit I didn’t think it would happen because of the cap hits being too much if it was this year and that next year I expected he would be gone, and clearly that wasn’t the case.  Just like many people thought as well.  
 

But I also said it wasn’t impossible, I just thought for Beane to take the hit things would have to get worse behind the scenes.  And once he was traded a lot more came out that things did.  
 

 

Can we just agree to drop it

 

because in all honesty I don't particularly care about being right, I care about the bills being good

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Understand.  I see this model used in Carolina as something they need to overhaul to meet with league trends and because they have a franchise QB.  

 

Never in Carolina did they have a QB, not even Newton, who was near as good as Josh.  Yet, they've gone from working to or actually putting WRs around him (2019-20) to then going the route of ignoring/under-resourcing the position in (2021-22) to deciding they'd be more complementary in 2023-24.  

 

I'd even argue their approach with WR's is always a step-behind in that they went with bigger catch-radius types when the league was going away from it in 2017-18, to returning to it as the league transitions back to the shifty guys.  

 

They come off as without an appropriate offensive strategy or being ahead of the personnel game.  

I think what people are also missing is that we have $31m in dead cap tied up in the WRs from trading Diggs.  Next year, they have a ton of cap space especially with them being able to get out of Vons deal next year as well.  
 

They took a WR who has WR1 potential in the draft.  If this season proves we have a deficiency at receiver to the point he need to go trade for or sign a top tier WR Beane will both have the ammo and draft capital to do so as we have all our picks plus an extra 2nd and 2 extra 4ths next draft.

 

And if he is not seeing the value there for a vet, he has that same capital to be aggressive to trade up to get another WR in the draft.

 

I think people have this mindset that what they are doing this year is set in stone for the future, but Beane has never ever taken that approach and always been aggressive to address weaknesses the season has proven the next offseason.  
 

 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They don't really have a choice, right? The personnel is going to dictate a low-risk low-reward style of offense. Explosive plays will have to come after the catch, not in air yards. We're going to attempt to resemble the 2023 Chiefs offense (which finished 9th in yards and 15th in points), but without a generational talent at TE and without a generational offensive coach. We will have to string together a lot of 10 play drives, and hope that our defense can execute well on the relatively low number of drives they get on the field because our offense is not remotely built for shootouts. 

 

For reasons that I don't understand that is the philosophy that this regime has intentionally chosen to move forward with.

There are two arguments.

 

#1 McD/Beane want ball-control type offense with less TO's and less drives per game and this offense as it looks is intentional.

 

#2 McD/Beane cobbled together a group for 2024 to get by with eyes on 2025. I don't have as much of a problem with this as trading Diggs away with his huge cap hit puts a huge black mark on the season already, with the large corollary that I would have liked more rookies or youngish talent in the WR room if they are viewing this as a stepping stone year.

 

There is a case for #2 imo. I am down on Beane prioritizing WR because it felt increasingly obvious over the last 3 seasons to do so, but he did have that stretch across 19 and 20 where he built the room to be quite good over the course of two seasons.

[Avisan]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brady went ball control when he took over

How are we defining "ball control"?

 

The Bills passed about the same amount, they just happened to be running ~9 more plays per game than they did under Dorsey because their drives weren't constantly sputtering.  YPA was unchanged, too.  Turns out running the ball a little more when it's beneficial to do so can improve your offensive consistency.

 

If the Bills continue to win games at a 6:1 ratio in the 2024 season I can promise I will not be complaining about how they do it.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Avisan said:

How are we defining "ball control"?

 

The Bills passed about the same amount, they just happened to be running ~9 more plays per game than they did under Dorsey because their drives weren't constantly sputtering.  YPA was unchanged, too.  Turns out running the ball a little more when it's beneficial to do so can improve your offensive consistency.

 

If the Bills continue to win games at a 6:1 ratio in the 2024 season I can promise I will not be complaining about how they do it.

 

Nor will I if it proves sustainable against the better teams in the NFL. That is where my concern is. 

 

[Avisan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nor will I if it proves sustainable against the better teams in the NFL. That is where my concern is. 

 

The Bills under Brady scored 27 per game against pretty good competition last season, despite Diggs falling off a cliff.  Genuine question, what is the sustainability concern and where does it stem from?  What do we think will be worse as compared to the back seven games of the season?

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Okay, so you think he did a good coaching job. Agree to disagree.

 

Honestly I've never felt under any of our three OCs in the Allen era that the Bills offense has ever over-performed relative to its talent on the field. The closest we got was under the playoff run with Daboll coming out of the 2021 season but it's hard to separate that playoff run from the QB performance and that's the same season we put up 3 points against the worst team in the league and our offense was disgustingly bad all through December, so 🤷 

 

FWIW I thought Brady made some good changes when he took over, most notably redirecting targets away from low efficiency players to higher efficiency players. But there is some selective memory going on. The best offensive game of the year came under Dorsey against Miami at home. Brady was in control for an almost disastrous loss to the lame duck Chargers. Diggs completely fell off a cliff halfway through the season and the defense statistically was the worst defense in the league for a stretch in the middle there. Those factors are what led to a mid-season slump. The offense had its typical ups and downs throughout the year regardless of who the OC was, the only difference is that under Brady the highs were lower and the  lows were higher.

 

I also never cared for the Dorsey hiring to begin with. I figured with Allen and Diggs in their prime, why hire a first time play caller? But I don't feel much better about Brady because we didn't actively try to do better. He got the job pretty much handed to him. At least he has some play calling experience unlike his predecessor but I don't expect him to overcome the personnel issues. He will have to be an elite OC for our offense to be ranked better than 10th IMO.

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

#2 McD/Beane cobbled together a group for 2024 to get by with eyes on 2025. I don't have as much of a problem with this as trading Diggs away with his huge cap hit puts a huge black mark on the season already, with the large corollary that I would have liked more rookies or youngish talent in the WR room if they are viewing this as a stepping stone year.

 

I actually would have been fine with this decision if they had double dipped at WR in the draft. If the goal is to rebuild the team for a run in 2025, great, get two young studs on the field with Allen and get their chemistry going. I just don't understand drafting one WR, then only signing a gadget/slot player, and calling it a day. Their personnel decisions on offense tell me they have a ton of unearned confidence in Brady to be an offensive genius. Hopefully a mid-season trade for a WR is the plan because I think it will very quickly become clear that the offense as it's constructed does not have the juice to make a deep playoff run.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Avisan said:

The Bills under Brady scored 27 per game against pretty good competition last season, despite Diggs falling off a cliff.  Genuine question, what is the sustainability concern and where does it stem from?  What do we think will be worse as compared to the back seven games of the season?

 

I am not sure I agree on the competition point firstly. Secondly it stems from teams were still playing the Bills last year to try and take away the explosives. In 2022 under Dorsey we were top 2 in explosive plays. So to an extent at the end of the season when we decided we wanted to play small ball it was there for us because that is what teams wanted us to do. Not taking all credit from Brady or Shakir and Kincaid who stepped up at all but the Bills were playing with a favourable hand.

 

Teams watch film. And if they don't think the Bills are the same explosive threat you better believe they will come up and play closer to the line. They will stack the box on Cook, they will flood the intermediate zones for Shakir and they will come up on Coleman and ask him to make every catch as a contested catch. That is the sustainability concern. And that style has a lower ceiling. It has less room for error. I don't think it will cause the Bills to fall of a cliff or anything but if they want to contend for a championship? Yea I doubt it is a sustainable way for them to play offense.

[hondo in seattle]

On 6/24/2024 at 12:45 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

...
Hollins makes the 53 but is the forgotten man in the WR room.

 

...

 

 

 

 

When I started this thread, I knew I'd make some mistakes.   One that's standing our right now is what I said about Hollins.  The BIlls released their first depth chart of the season and have Mack listed as a starter. 

 

I guess the Barefoot Wideout is not forgotten.  

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Okay, so you think he did a good coaching job. Agree to disagree.

 

@BADOLBILZ probably won’t agree he did a good job but will also nitpick a take he doesn’t even disagree with.

 

 

Dorsey absolutely did a good job.  

 

He had less to work with than Daboll in 2021 and yet the offense was better under Dorsey in 2022.

 

I said it at the time and I don't think people appreciate how bad Daboll was thru much of 2021.   Even when they were winning at the end of the season they labored against mailed-in performance teams like Carolina and Atlanta and  just couldn't function without using Allen like a running back.   They were lucky the Jets had the bus warming up in the finale when Allen completed 1 of 13 pass attempts to Gabe Davis.    It was UGLY.  All was forgotten because Allen went off in the 2 playoff games.

 

It wasn't Dorsey's fault that the quality of weapons around Allen got decidedly worse in 2022 and 2023.   If they had personnel to push the ball down the field they would have.   If Dorsey was guilty of anything it was not pulling the plug on having Josh Allen play QB like he SHOULD.   From the pocket, pushing the ball downfield backed by an offensive line that can pound the rock.   

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, Avisan said:

The Bills under Brady scored 27 per game against pretty good competition last season, despite Diggs falling off a cliff.  Genuine question, what is the sustainability concern and where does it stem from?  What do we think will be worse as compared to the back seven games of the season?

I think the sustainability concern comes from the over usage of Josh running the ball.  Come December/january, I’m good with it.  Not in the first 3/4 of the season

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

what are we even arguing about tho

 

the results speak for themselves. you literally cant say he didnt do a good job in 2022

He did a helluva job vs Cinci in the playoffs with an entirely healthy offense…..

 

yet you crucify mcdermott for his season ending losses on D, while playing with a handful of  backups year in year out.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

lol what on earth are you talking about

 

YOU are the one who is consistently wrong and refuse to acknowledge it. you are probably more unapologetically wrong than almost anyone ive ever read on here. please dont make me bring up the diggs thread

 

i will have no problem saying i was wrong about Brady and the offense if they look great this year. unlike you i am capable of changing my opinion w out gaslighting

I can’t agree with this.  I’ve been told that I read this board more than anyone-  I certainly remember @Alphadawg7owning his wrongdoings.  There’s one person that I can’t remember owning any wrong doings-  and everyone knows exactly who that is….because he’s never been wrong apparently.  You can’t be serious in saying that Alpha is more unapologetically wrong than that dude

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think the sustainability concern comes from the over usage of Josh running the ball.  Come December/january, I’m good with it.  Not in the first 3/4 of the season

He did a helluva job vs Cinci in the playoffs with an entirely healthy offense…..

 

yet you crucify mcdermott for his season ending losses on D, while playing with a handful of  backups year in year out.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

You certainly won't find me saying they played well vs the Bengals 

 

And w no qualifiers either

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Dorsey absolutely did a good job.  

 

He had less to work with than Daboll in 2021 and yet the offense was better under Dorsey in 2022.

 

I said it at the time and I don't think people appreciate how bad Daboll was thru much of 2021.   Even when they were winning at the end of the season they labored against mailed-in performance teams like Carolina and Atlanta and  just couldn't function without using Allen like a running back.   They were lucky the Jets had the bus warming up in the finale when Allen completed 1 of 13 pass attempts to Gabe Davis.    It was UGLY.  All was forgotten because Allen went off in the 2 playoff games.

 

It wasn't Dorsey's fault that the quality of weapons around Allen got decidedly worse in 2022 and 2023.   If they had personnel to push the ball down the field they would have.   If Dorsey was guilty of anything it was not pulling the plug on having Josh Allen play QB like he SHOULD.   From the pocket, pushing the ball downfield backed by an offensive line that can pound the rock.   

Okay, fair enough. IYO, Dorsey did a good job as OC. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

 

He did a helluva job vs Cinci in the playoffs with an entirely healthy offense…..

 

yet you crucify mcdermott for his season ending losses on D, while playing with a handful of  backups year in year out.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

The 2022 playoff loss game in the snow? I don't think anyone did a good job for the bills

[hondo in seattle]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure I agree on the competition point firstly. Secondly it stems from teams were still playing the Bills last year to try and take away the explosives. In 2022 under Dorsey we were top 2 in explosive plays. So to an extent at the end of the season when we decided we wanted to play small ball it was there for us because that is what teams wanted us to do. Not taking all credit from Brady or Shakir and Kincaid who stepped up at all but the Bills were playing with a favourable hand.

 

Teams watch film. And if they don't think the Bills are the same explosive threat you better believe they will come up and play closer to the line. They will stack the box on Cook, they will flood the intermediate zones for Shakir and they will come up on Coleman and ask him to make every catch as a contested catch. That is the sustainability concern. And that style has a lower ceiling. It has less room for error. I don't think it will cause the Bills to fall of a cliff or anything but if they want to contend for a championship? Yea I doubt it is a sustainable way for them to play offense.

 

GB, do you truly expect the Bills to play small ball this year?

 

There would be two reasons to transition to small ball.  (1)  We no longer have  the personnel to stretch the field vertically, or (2) McD and Brady prefer small ball philosophically.

 

I don't think either are true.  Our team speed isn't bad.  And I think McD and Brady are smart enough not to ask Josh to be Ryan Tannehill.  When you have a big gun, you shoot it.

 

I think they want to play opportunistic, situational football.  To oversimplify, if they see two high, they'll throw underneath.  If the OL is struggling, they'll call quick-hitting passes.  If they see light  boxes, they'll run.  And if they 'stack the box on Cook,' Allen's going to fire an artillery round downfield.  

 

When Brady says that everyone's gonna eat, I don't think he means curls, flats, and bubble screens.  

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

GB, do you truly expect the Bills to play small ball this year?

 

There would be two reasons to transition to small ball.  (1)  We no longer have  the personnel to stretch the field vertically, or (2) McD and Brady prefer small ball philosophically.

 

I don't think either are true.  Our team speed isn't bad.  And I think McD and Brady are smart enough not to ask Josh to be Ryan Tannehill.  When you have a big gun, you shoot it.

 

I think they want to play opportunistic, situational football.  To oversimplify, if they see two high, they'll throw underneath.  If the OL is struggling, they'll call quick-hitting passes.  If they see light  boxes, they'll run.  And if they 'stack the box on Cook,' Allen's going to fire an artillery round downfield.  

 

When Brady says that everyone's gonna eat, I don't think he means curls, flats, and bubble screens.  

 

I agree with your (2). It just isn't what we have seen with McDermott here. Everyone wails on about him being a defensive guy but he has let his OCs run some of the most pass heavy offenses in football. If he really believed philosophically in small ball the last 6/7 years would have looked very different. My concern is I am not sure I agree with your (1). Stretching the field isn't just about team speed. It isn't a 100m race. You have to have guys who can win and separate 1v1 down the field consistently. That is about release, it's about speed, it's about footwork, body control, route running... that is a bit my worry. 

[DJB]

Josh 17634 yards 

Kincaid - 6590

Keon - 160 (because he’s slow and can’t run that far)