Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/25/2024 at 7:50 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's pretty easy to see that this is what McDermott has in mind.   You aren't going to add together two lesser players to share a position and have them match the efficiency of Diggs.  It's not like a left/right platoon in baseball.   Just look at Mahomes last season.......his passing yardage dropped by 1,000 yards from 2022 due to early season uncertainty and down years from Kelce and MVS.  

 

McDermott wants "complementary" football.   An offense that burns clock and scores 20+ and keeps his defense fresh so it can allow less than 20.

 

 

 

Match the efficiency of Diggs?  A big reason why people thought he lost a step was because his efficiency had been on the decline for 2 years and in both years it worse in the second half of the season and even worse in the postseason.  

 

And Shakir, was nearly twice as efficient as Diggs last year where he averaged 13.6 YPT to Diggs 7.39 YPT.  It is why Shakir led the team in receiving the final 10 games despite having less than half the targets Diggs got.  

 

And no that is not the offense McD wants, that is your opinion and it is contradictory to everything McD has stated and done.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Match the efficiency of Diggs?  A big reason why people thought he lost a step was because his efficiency had been on the decline for 2 years and in both years it worse in the second half of the season and even worse in the postseason.  

 

And Shakir, was nearly twice as efficient as Diggs last year where he averaged 13.6 YPT to Diggs 7.39 YPT.  It is why Shakir led the team in receiving the final 10 games despite having less than half the targets Diggs got.  

 

And no that is not the offense McD wants, that is your opinion and it is contradictory to everything McD has stated and done.  

it is absolutely the offense McDermott wants

 

direct quote after the Bengals game- "You have to [establish the run] in order to move the chains and keep a good offense off the field. And I think that's all part of being a good offense is being two-dimensional"

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/25/2024 at 12:46 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Which is what they did in the second half of last season.   Which resulted in a much less effective Josh Allen as a passer.   But they won more.   This is why McDermott is going that route.   I think they have come to a bad conclusion and that the REAL reason they won was because they used Allen like Cam Newton in the mid-2010's.    

 

This is not the case though.  You have this obsession with projecting a must win situation for the final 7 games in order for Bills to get back into the playoff race as if everything they did will be replicated and built upon further this year.  

 

Everyone from Allen, McD, Beane, and Brady have all stated they don't want Allen running so much and its why they got younger and tougher at RB to compliment Cook as well.  Its why they have gone out and prioritized having guys who have reliable hands who can win their routes and make the plays and move the chains.  Its why the diversified his weapons to give Allen a bigger tool box vs inefficient guys like Diggs and Davis.  

 

We will see if it work or not once the season begins, but this idea you have that they plan to use Allen like Cam Newton is not remotely close to their planned primary offensive strategy heading into this season.  Its the polar opposite.

[pi2000]

Where's Aiyuk?

 

IMO Claypool doesn't make the 53.

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Everyone from Allen, McD, Beane, and Brady have all stated they don't want Allen running so much

How many years in a row have they said that, though?  Ideal or not, it’s such a huge part of his game that limiting him is a serious impediment to the offense.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it is absolutely the offense McDermott wants

 

direct quote after the Bengals game- "You have to [establish the run] in order to move the chains and keep a good offense off the field. And I think that's all part of being a good offense is being two-dimensional"

 

 

 

No its not, that is the incorrect interpretation some of you come up with when anything is said that doesn't equate to Josh Allen slinging the ball every play.  What he wants is to be able to also run the ball, but that does NOT mean he wants a slow low scoring offense that just plays ball control every single game. 

 

Having a run game opens up the pass game, it does not mean he is planning to go run focused football and create low scoring games.  That is the McD bias because he comes from a defensive background that many of you make up that is completely contradictory to how he coaches the team, how aggressive he has been as a HC, and how he has spoken about the offense.  Even in this quote he talks about being TWO dimensional while you are twisting to imply he wants to be this one dimensional run heavy ball control offense.  

 

And for the record...I bet any amount of money that there is not a single coach in the NFL that will disagree with McD's quote you just posted.  Not even the back to back SB champion HC Andy Reid would disagree with that.  

 

[GoBills808]

another direct quote- "If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want and what style of defense I want. What style of football team I want. That identity is shaped in training camp and that identity needs to embody toughness.”

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Billl said:

How many years in a row have they said that, though?  Ideal or not, it’s such a huge part of his game that limiting him is a serious impediment to the offense.

 

I definitely agree with you that limiting him is a serious impediment to the offense and I think we saw that under Dorsey.  But there is a difference between limiting him and reducing the need to run.  Josh needs to play free, but even Josh said just recently he doesn't like to run or want to run.  He talked about how good his body felt the next day after the Cowboys game like he could play another game the next day vs the usual pain he is in after a game with how much he puts his body through.

 

So its more about not having to need Allen to run so much rather than flat out preventing him from running so much.  And that is why they draft a guy like Ray Davis to help take some of the short yardage runs.  Its why they are looking to be more efficient in the passing game with guys who can win routes and have reliable hands to help move the chains.  Its why they brought in size and variety into his weapon set and drafted guys like Kincaid and Keon.  

 

Whether it works or not is yet to be seen.  But I think the intent is to let Josh be Josh but just create an offense that results in Josh not having to run as often versus just trying to limit him.  

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No its not, that is the incorrect interpretation some of you come up with when anything is said that doesn't equate to Josh Allen slinging the ball every play.  What he wants is to be able to also run the ball, but that does NOT mean he wants a slow low scoring offense that just plays ball control every single game. 

 

Having a run game opens up the pass game, it does not mean he is planning to go run focused football and create low scoring games.  That is the McD bias because he comes from a defensive background that many of you make up that is completely contradictory to how he coaches the team, how aggressive he has been as a HC, and how he has spoken about the offense.  Even in this quote he talks about being TWO dimensional while you are twisting to imply he wants to be this one dimensional run heavy ball control offense.  

 

And for the record...I bet any amount of money that there is not a single coach in the NFL that will disagree with McD's quote you just posted.  Not even the back to back SB champion HC Andy Reid would disagree with that.  

 

😂😂we literally just saw McDermott shitcan the guy who was trying to implement a modern NFL offense and replace him w a guy who went full ball control

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂we literally just saw McDermott shitcan the guy who was trying to implement a modern NFL offense and replace him w a guy who went full ball control

 

There was nothing modern about Dorsey's offense. It passed a lot (though at about the same rate as before he took the reigns) but other than that what do you think made it modern? It had predictable route combinations and formations, conventional play action and almost a total absence of pre-snap shifts and motion. 

 

Not disputing the second half of your point - Brady went ball control when he took over and if that persists into this season it is a concern - but I don't see the modernity in Ken Dorsey at all. It was a mid 00s passing attack just with more volume.

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There was nothing modern about Dorsey's offense. It passed a lot (though at about the same rate as before he took the reigns) but other than that what do you think made it modern? It had predictable route combinations and formations, conventional play action and almost a total absence of pre-snap shifts and motion. 

 

Not disputing the second half of your point - Brady went ball control when he took over and if that persists into this season it is a concern - but I don't see the modernity in Ken Dorsey at all. It was a mid 00s passing attack just with more volume.

Embracing variance in the pass attack

Leveraging his QBs unique ability to attack all parts of the field

Understanding that the modern requirement of QB mobility should be deployed as a trait and not a feature

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Embracing variance in the pass attack

Leveraging his QBs unique ability to attack all parts of the field

Understanding that the modern requirement of QB mobility should be deployed as a trait and not a feature

 

Embarcing variance? As in accepting the chuck and duck, boom or bust nature of his offense? That isn't modern. The Oilers were doing that in the 80s. Just asking Josh to go deep all the time was putting even more of the offense on his shoulders. And he ran him more in his one full season than anyone else. 

 

Still not seeing it.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Embracing variance in the pass attack

Leveraging his QBs unique ability to attack all parts of the field

Understanding that the modern requirement of QB mobility should be deployed as a trait and not a feature

 

Yep.

 

And when your QB can make throws to areas of the field that defense's aren't equipped to defend........and leads the league in completion % on throws over 10 yards and is kinda' shoddy on the short stuff...........what else would you do but surround him with 3 slot receivers and a washed-up MVS? 

 

Some of the crazy reverse logic people use here cracks me up.   @Alphadawg7 says they have "diversified" their weapons.  You can't make this sh!t up. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Embarcing variance? As in accepting the chuck and duck, boom or bust nature of his offense? That isn't modern. The Oilers were doing that in the 80s. Just asking Josh to go deep all the time was putting even more of the offense on his shoulders. And he ran him more in his one full season than anyone else. 

 

Still not seeing it.

😂😂Of course you're not seeing it

 

You believe Dorsey was fired for cause and that his top2 offense was 'predictable' and poorly designed

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yep.

 

And when your QB can make throws to areas of the field that defense's aren't equipped to defend........and leads the league in completion % on throws over 10 yards and is kinda' shoddy on the short stuff...........what else would you do but surround him with 3 slot receivers and a washed-up MVS? 

 

Some of the crazy reverse logic people use here cracks me up.   @Alphadawg7 says they have "diversified" their weapons.  You can't make this sh!t up. 

 said in another thread this season's offense is going to be a wake up call for a lot of folks but from the looks of it i'm probably giving them too much credit😂😂

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂Of course you're not seeing it

 

You believe Dorsey was fired for cause and that his top2 offense was 'predictable' and poorly designed

 😂

 

 

Yeah c'mon @GunnerBill.   You protest too much.   You said that when Diggs fell off Dorsey's offense fell off.........Diggs was on pace for almost 1500 yards when Dorsey got fired.

 

I get it,  you want more motion and more trickery.   That's your definition of modern but those things aren't "new".  

 

What's new is having QB's in the NFL who can hurl a 30 yard out pass.

 

And teams that barely practice together anymore.

 

Modern and "more complicated" aren't necessarily synonymous.   

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂Of course you're not seeing it

 

You believe Dorsey was fired for cause and that his top2 offense was 'predictable' and poorly designed

 

Again, his offense over his entire time here is not the relevant comparator. It is what happened in the six weeks before his firing where things majorly dropped off and he had zero answers. It isn't just me who makes those criticisms of his offense. Go look at what Dan Orlovsky and Kurt Warner and the likes of those guys were saying about it. It was predictable, simple (that is different to poorly designed btw that is you putting words in my mouth) and placed a high tariff on execution despite the fact he knew what he had talent wise. 

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah c'mon @GunnerBill.   You protest too much.   You said that when Diggs fell off Dorsey's offense fell off.........Diggs was on pace for almost 1500 yards when Dorsey got fired.

 

I get it,  you want more motion and more trickery.   That's your definition of modern but those things aren't "new".  

 

What's new is having QB's in the NFL who can hurl a 30 yard out pass.

 

And teams that barely practice together anymore.

 

Modern and "more complicated" aren't necessarily synonymous.   

 

To run Ken Dorsey's offense you need to have a different talent profile (and we are all agreed on the Bills have under invested in offensive playmakers). If you haven't got that you need more creativity and variety in your offense that schemes some easier opportunities and places less of a tariff on execution. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, his offense over his entire time here is not the relevant comparator. It is what happened in the six weeks before his firing where things majorly dropped off and he had zero answers. It isn't just me who makes those criticisms of his offense. Go look at what Dan Orlovsky and Kurt Warner and the likes of those guys were saying about it. It was predictable, simple (that is different to poorly designed btw that is you putting words in my mouth) and placed a high tariff on execution despite the fact he knew what he had talent wise. 

 

To run Ken Dorsey's offense you need to have a different talent profile (and we are all agreed on the Bills have under invested in offensive playmakers). If you haven't got that you need more creativity and variety in your offense that schemes some easier opportunities and places less of a tariff on execution. 

 

Zero answers?   Dorsey made the adjustments in the Tampa game and was lauded for it.   The staff was already aware which direction they were going to have to go offensively to respond to how they were being defensed.  They tried to "load manage" Allen in the Denver game thinking it was an easy W and McDermott disastrously blew that game at the end.   So someone had to be sacrificed for McDermott's failures to get morale off the mat.   Were you disappointed with the offense under Brady?  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Zero answers?   Dorsey made the adjustments in the Tampa game and was lauded for it.   The staff was already aware which direction they were going to have to go offensively to respond to how they were being defensed.  They tried to "load manage" Allen in the Denver game thinking it was an easy W and McDermott disastrously blew that game at the end.   So someone had to be sacrificed for McDermott's failures to get morale off the mat.   Were you disappointed with the offense under Brady?  

 

McDermott did blow the end of the Denver game but the offense blew that game for 3 quarters at the same time. It was a disaster class. I was slightly surprised Dorsey was fired at the point he was but I didn't think there were any signs of him finding a way out of the trough the offense was in. I'll be honest I thought the season was done, the offense would continue to splutter along and they'd fire him after the season (possibly as part of a house clearing even). If you'd asked me the morning after the Denver game that was where I was. By the afternoon (UK time) Dorsey was fired. 

 

As for what happened next I think Brady did a reasonable job of finding a way to run a low risk offense with a spluttering passing game and move the ball. It was sustainable as a 6 or 7 game exercise to save a season I don't think is sustainable as a long term offense for the Bills if their goal, as it should be, is to be a championship football team. If they try and run that offense in 2024 I will be very critical of it. I have been totally against the "establish the run better" narrative for as long as we have had Josh Allen. Establish the pass. Run just enough and efficiently enough to keep the defense honest.

[blacklabel]

"Everyone eats" has been the offense's motto this season so I'm not sure if we'll see anyone top 1k since they're gonna be spreading the ball around so much. I'll give it a shot anyway:

 

Kincaid: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

Shakir: 70 receptions, 950 yards, 5 TDs

Samuel: 65 receptions, 800 yards, 5 TDs

Coleman: 60 receptions, 750 yards, 11 TDs

Knox: 40 receptions, 570 yards, 4 TDs

Hollins: 35 receptions, 500 yards, 3 TDs

Shavers: 30 receptions, 400 yards, 1 TD

 

I dunno. 

Edited August 8 by blacklabel

[Billl]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Again, his offense over his entire time here is not the relevant comparator. It is what happened in the six weeks before his firing where things majorly dropped off and he had zero answers. It isn't just me who makes those criticisms of his offense. Go look at what Dan Orlovsky and Kurt Warner and the likes of those guys were saying about it. It was predictable, simple (that is different to poorly designed btw that is you putting words in my mouth) and placed a high tariff on execution despite the fact he knew what he had talent wise. 

 

To run Ken Dorsey's offense you need to have a different talent profile (and we are all agreed on the Bills have under invested in offensive playmakers). If you haven't got that you need more creativity and variety in your offense that schemes some easier opportunities and places less of a tariff on execution. 

What’s the variety in Brady’s offense?  Josh had 48 rushing attempts (including kneel downs) in the 10 games under Dorsey.  He had  58 in the last 6 games under Brady and 20 more in the 2 playoff games.  It’s no revelation that running Josh more is a boost for the offense in the short term.  It’s just a matter of whether or not you want to expose him to the extra wear and tear that it entails.  I’m sure Dorsey’s offense would have looked better if he had run Josh twice as much, but he was constrained by the organizational philosophy that seemingly didn’t apply to Brady.