Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

271 yards is not context it's just an uneducated guess.

 

Hence, make believe.

 

2020 is not coming back, hondo.

 

Wake up.   Offensive production is way down around the league the past 2 seasons.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/

 

Last year Allen passed for just 253 yards per game despite having 2 boundary WR averaging 8.5 and 9 yards per target over their careers and his slot receiver having incredible efficiency leading the league in catch %.

 

That passing yardage number is only likely to come DOWN being replaced by journeymen in Samuel, MVS and Claypool who've averaged around 7 to 7.5 for their careers.

 

And you are predicting almost 20 MORE passing yards per game and trying to defend that with context without using any.

 

 

The 271 yards/game is admittedly just a swag.  It's the offseason and we don't even know what offense Brady wants to run or who the starting WRs are.  A swag is all any of us can offer right now.  

 

The context was that Josh has already passed for more yards/game than what I'm guessing.   Despite playing with some injuries, Josh has average 265 yards/game over the past 4 years.  So it's not crazily optimistic.   

 

Josh passed for less than 271 last season because (1) his arm was sore, and (2) the OC position was screwed up, (3) the playbook wasn't built on the optimal concepts with the optimal plays (4) Josh was often throwing into tight windows (Diggs and Davis were ranked 71st and 72nd in yards of separation).     

 

 

Here's more context: when looking at the history of these players, other than Shakir, I'm not projecting big career-high totals.  In most cases, I'm projecting roughly their average in catches, yards, and yards/catch.  I'm not expecting any of them to do anything that's out of the ordinary in the context of their careers (except Shakir).  

 

Our starting WRs this year will probably be Shakir (13.6 yards/target), Coleman (na), and Samuel (7.0).  MVS, probably the next guy up, is 8.53 for his career.  So I'm not sure why you're saying MVS is a 7.0 to 7.5 guy and we're replacing Diggs and Davis with guys in that range when Samuel is the only top replacement below 8.0.  And Samuel was asked to run short  routes in an inefficient offense so of course his yards/target were low.   We don't know what his yards/target will be in a Josh-led Bills offense.  

 

 

 

 

 

[eball]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think your contention that the WR are going to produce like that while the TE room is going to set Bills all-time single season records is what's lacking context.   So, incredibly unlikely.

 

I am glad you started this thread because it gives us the chance to be real about the numbers.

  

And yeah I heard the "Josh Allen tide raises all ships" argument last spring about Sherfield and Harty.

 

Beane was going to show me and the doubters.

 

How'd that work out?

 

As I accurately predicted using simple statistical analysis.........they produced like they had normally produced in their careers.

 

Their single outlier seasons remained outliers.

 

This is because in most cases receivers play to their typical statistics.    Curtis is likely to fall around 1.5 YPRR.   He's been in the high 1's as a low mileage guy early in his career and also sub-1 a couple times.   1.38 in 2022 and 1.5 in 2023......sounds about right.      

 

Not every modest producer is just limited by the ball distributor.

 

One of the reasons the people who make money on statistical analysis like YPRR is because context is overrated with regard to that stat.

 

There are extremes, sure.  

 

Josh Gordon produced a top 5 All-time WR season with one of the worst QB'd teams in recent NFL history.    Then he disappeared from sight even with Brady and Mahomes throwing to him.   

 

It can go either way but that's not the norm.

 

If you want to cling to the hope that Chase Claypool will choose violence for one season(in hopes of scoring a new deal) that's a very long shot with some Josh-Gordonesque merit.

 

But expecting a lot from these receivers while also expecting record production from Bills TE's?  C'mon bro.   Where's the context?   How are you getting these guys all these snaps?   It's make believe.

 

I'm too lazy to do the research, but can you name for me any "star" WRs who put up consistent all-pro quality stats with sub-par (bottom half of the league) QBs?

 

Maybe Calvin Johnson, from 2007-2011 until Stafford was established?

 

 

[2003Contenders]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Agree about Brady.   They didn't turn to ground and pound.   They were throwing more underneath and gaining some more YAC.   But they had already begun that process with Dorsey in the Tampa game.   Brady didn't re-invent anything.   He continued the adaptation Dorsey had started.    What changed was that McDermott took the reigns off of the OC by allowing Brady to use Allen with reckless abandon in the run game.  Prior to hiring Brady they were trying HARD to avoid those hard miles.

 

But what you are projecting would be the most efficient passing season in NFL history.......78%.....obliterating Drew Brees single season record of 74%. completions.

 

Josh Allen is a 63% career passer,  fwiw.

 

The point I've been trying to make is that the current cast of receivers the Bills have are traditionally much less snap/route production efficient compared to their predecessors.

 

Curtis Samuel produced 1.5 yards per route run last season.    Stef Diggs produced 2 yards per route run(which was down from 2.87 in 2022)

 

You can find these and other enlightening efficiency numbers at:  https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/stefon-diggs/

 

Even going from 2 to 1.5 is a huge difference in bulk production over the course of a season worth of targets.   If Samuel could even hold up to or maintain his productivity at that volume, which is unknown.

 

Assuming more work won't be less efficient........in order for the Bills to match last year's bulk production in the passing game they would likely have to run A LOT more plays.

 

So start off with 383 completions.    At 63% complete that would require 608 targets.......not 535.

 

Now factor in that these guys are likely to be 20% to 40% less efficient per route run..........and the amount of targets needed gets insane.  

 

Hence, the simple conclusion is that we should expect a big drop in bulk passing game numbers.    The alternative would look like throwing 50 times per game to try to put up what Allen could do with Diggs/Brown/Beasley in 35 pass attempts.    That won't work.   Obviously.

 

Expect a greater emphasis on running the ball.......burning the clock.......and shortening games.

 

The numbers tell us to expect Allen to have his least impressive passing season since either 2019 or maybe even since 2018.

 

 

I should have double-checked my target conversion rates because you are right that there is no way that Josh (as much as I love him) is going to complete 78% of his passes. I was suggesting something close to a 70% -- but even with unaccounted for throwaways, etc. the individual converted-target numbers that I cited are well beyond optimistic. 🙂

 

While it is true that Josh's career completion percentage is around 63% -- it is considerably higher after his first two formative years. In fact, he was very CLOSE to 70% back in 2020:

 

2023 - 66.49%
2022 - 63.32
2021 - 63.41
2020 - 69.23

 

Even if the 66% he completed last year is perhaps more likely, I think we are somewhat in agreement that the offense for 2024 will include more of a short passing game than we saw under Dorsey, with Kincaid/Knox and the RBs being heavily incorporated along with short routes to Samuel, etc.  Shorter/safer routes would also lead to higher completion percentage, so I do feel like 66%+ is a reasonable expectation. Obviously, early chemistry with a number of new cast members will be vitally important as well. It would also help if that the YAC numbers (which have been abysmal for the Bills in recent years) would start to see a spike.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The 271 yards/game is admittedly just a swag.  It's the offseason and we don't even know what offense Brady wants to run or who the starting WRs are.  A swag is all any of us can offer right now.  

 

The context was that Josh has already passed for more yards/game than what I'm guessing.   Despite playing with some injuries, Josh has average 265 yards/game over the past 4 years.  So it's not crazily optimistic.   

 

Josh passed for less than 271 last season because (1) his arm was sore, and (2) the OC position was screwed up, (3) the playbook wasn't built on the optimal concepts with the optimal plays (4) Josh was often throwing into tight windows (Diggs and Davis were ranked 71st and 72nd in yards of separation).     

 

 

Here's more context: when looking at the history of these players, other than Shakir, I'm not projecting big career-high totals.  In most cases, I'm projecting roughly their average in catches, yards, and yards/catch.  I'm not expecting any of them to do anything that's out of the ordinary in the context of their careers (except Shakir).  

 

Our starting WRs this year will probably be Shakir (13.6 yards/target), Coleman (na), and Samuel (7.0).  MVS, probably the next guy up, is 8.53 for his career.  So I'm not sure why you're saying MVS is a 7.0 to 7.5 guy and we're replacing Diggs and Davis with guys in that range when Samuel is the only top replacement below 8.0.  And Samuel was asked to run short  routes in an inefficient offense so of course his yards/target were low.   We don't know what his yards/target will be in a Josh-led Bills offense.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again.........the issue you aren't addressing is how do all of these low per-play producing receivers put up all of this yardage?

 

It doesn't matter that you aren't projecting their "career" highs.   Those were attained when they had more opportunity.  

 

What matters is that you are anticipating guys who produce significantly less YPRR or yards per target than their predecessors to produce GREATER numbers in aggregate.   

 

That likely requires A LOT more snaps offensively than guys like Diggs and Davis needed.

 

At the same time the TE's are setting team records.   So presumably a lot more 12 personnel and less WR snaps to go around.

 

Do you follow me?   Because you haven't addressed the issue of how they are pulling this off.   

 

And that's having not even addressed whether MVS, Claypool and Mack Hollins are finished as players..........which is on the table given their performances last season.   That's why they were available for so little.   Dumpster dives.

 

So yeah, we don't know who the starters are..........but we apparently know who all of the candidates are.   Other than Coleman,  who has a modest track record of production even in college,  we have a lot of NFL data on these players.   As @Kirby Jackson has said and I agree.......on paper it's a bottom 3 WR group in the NFL.   

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

I'm too lazy to do the research, but can you name for me any "star" WRs who put up consistent all-pro quality stats with sub-par (bottom half of the league) QBs?

 

Maybe Calvin Johnson, from 2007-2011 until Stafford was established?

 

 

 

 

DeAndre Hopkins before Watson arrived was a prime recent example.  

 

Really good WR's will get their numbers.

 

It's why the hand wringing about what Eric Moulds or Lee Evans would have done with a better QB has always been an eye roller.  

[eball]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

DeAndre Hopkins before Watson arrived was a prime recent example.  

 

Really good WR's will get their numbers.

 

It's why the hand wringing about what Eric Moulds or Lee Evans would have done with a better QB has always been an eye roller.  

 

Yeah, but you gave me one name.  What other stud receivers have "risen above" their bad QBs?

 

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yeah, but you gave me one name.  What other stud receivers have "risen above" their bad QBs?

 

 

Garrett Wilson

DJ Moore

Michael Pittman

Davante Adams

Ja'Marr Chase (for most of last year)

 

What is the point of this question anyways? You know not a single WR on our team is a "stud" WR, right?

[eball]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Garrett Wilson

DJ Moore

Michael Pittman

Davante Adams

Ja'Marr Chase (for most of last year)

 

What is the point of this question anyways? You know not a single WR on our team is a "stud" WR, right?

 

It's a question that gets to the issue of how much QB play impacts WR play.  It has nothing to do with the players on Buffalo's roster.  I'm just curious about how many good-to-very-good WRs are able to put up big numbers with crappy QBs.

 

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, eball said:

I'm just curious about how many good-to-very-good WRs are able to put up big numbers with crappy QBs.

 

All of them do. Tyreek Hill went from Mahomes to Tua and actually saw his production increase by a significant amount. 

[eball]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

All of them do. Tyreek Hill went from Mahomes to Tua and actually saw his production increase by a significant amount. 

 

Say what you want about Tua but he's not a bottom half of the league QB.  Poor example.

 

[FireChans]

43 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It's a question that gets to the issue of how much QB play impacts WR play.  It has nothing to do with the players on Buffalo's roster.  I'm just curious about how many good-to-very-good WRs are able to put up big numbers with crappy QBs.

 

 

Terry McLaurin

DK Metcalf

Chris Olave

Amari Cooper

Michael Pittman

Justin Jefferson last year

 

Not beating the “I don’t pay attention to the NFL allegations” anytime soon

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Say what you want about Tua but he's not a bottom half of the league QB.  Poor example.

 

 

That wasn't my point. My point is that WR production is less influenced by QB play than people think.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That wasn't my point. My point is that WR production is less influenced by QB play than people think.

yup people trying to talk themselves into Claypool while Pickens is still sitting there in Pitt as example A 😂😂

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

That wasn't my point. My point is that WR production is less influenced by QB play than people think.

 

I don't know what 'people think' so I can't comment on that.  But WRs for a crap QB who throws for only 3,000 yards are going to have, on average, less production than WRs playing for a QB who throws for 5,000 yards.  That's just math.

But the bigger context matters, too.  Miami made Tyreek the focus of their offense - and Tua did a good job of getting him the ball.  So scheme, playcalling, OL play, other recievers... all that stuff matters. 

 

Imagine you're a talented wideout and your forte is speed and the deep ball.  But your OL sucks and your QB has a noodle arm so the OC doesn't call long passes.  That'll impact your total yards, yards per route run, and a bunch of other metrics.  Your numbers won't reflect your talent.  

 

But then you're traded to a team with a genius OC, an OL great at passpro, and a QB that excels at deep throws.  Suddenly all your metrics become better and you get a Pro Bowl nod. 

 

We already have a great QB.  I'm hoping, because I'm a fan, that Brady turns out to be the kind of OC that can maximize production in the passing game.   

[Dillenger4]

I love the optimism in this thread! Go Bills baby! And I love Shakir. But no way in cold Buffalo is Shakir sniffing 1000 yards receiving this season. He's a good slot receiver. Beane has built a room full of good WR's on the cheap. It's actually a smart way to build the team. But what it means is we will be spreading the ball and the wealth of catches to all of them. My list is as follows:

 

Kincaid - 800

Samuel - 650

Coleman - 600/650

Shakir - 600

Knox - 450

Cook - 350

Ty Johnson - 300

Davis - 200

MVS - 350/400

 

The best part is this: Our RB's will have a record season in rushing! All three of them. Pound it baby! Get up early and pound the rock is what Brady is famous for. Bank it. GO BILLS!

[Maine-iac]

Somehow production always gets attributed to yardage.  300 yard passing games, 100 yard receiving games ect ect.  If we run the ball more all season, pass for a few less yards, still score the same amount of TD's I could care less if we don't have a 1,200 or 1,300 yard receiver.  I'd also like to see a back (or our offense in general) gain the ability to run for short yardage and score on the goal line.  You want Josh to run less?  Get us someone who can gain those 1st downs and TD's so Josh isn't QB and FB.  I don't think we need huge passing yardage numbers to still have a productive offense.  Can we score points and get 1st downs?  That what I care about.  For the sake of addressing the original topic.  All complete guessing.

 

Name              Catches   Yards   TDs

Kincaid            85             950      8

Shakir              64             990      6

Samuel            53             630      4

Knox                35             380      6

Cook                45             450      2

Coleman          45             560      4

 

I think MVS, Hollin, and possibly Claypool all muddle up the numbers.  One of them will get a few catches.  I think MVS is the veteran, Hollins is the special teamer, and Claypool is the flyer on the chance he shows something.  I don't know if any of them see the field much.  I have to turn off the part of my brain that hopes Claypool makes something of himself because while it would be nice you don't build around that.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, eball said:

 

It's a question that gets to the issue of how much QB play impacts WR play.  It has nothing to do with the players on Buffalo's roster.  I'm just curious about how many good-to-very-good WRs are able to put up big numbers with crappy QBs.

 

 

 

 

You pretend to be curious if there are "any other".......... but then the fact that A LOT of WR put up excellent numbers with bad QB play leaves you unconvinced. 

 

As @FireChans says,  not knowing this fact really illustrates that you don't follow the league.   It's common knowledge.

 

I gave you a literal All Pro example like you asked for.

 

How bad was Houston's QB situation in 2015?   Hopkins put up 1521 yards receiving with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden splitting the QB duties.    

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I don't know what 'people think' so I can't comment on that.  But WRs for a crap QB who throws for only 3,000 yards are going to have, on average, less production than WRs playing for a QB who throws for 5,000 yards.  That's just math.

But the bigger context matters, too.  Miami made Tyreek the focus of their offense - and Tua did a good job of getting him the ball.  So scheme, playcalling, OL play, other recievers... all that stuff matters. 

 

Imagine you're a talented wideout and your forte is speed and the deep ball.  But your OL sucks and your QB has a noodle arm so the OC doesn't call long passes.  That'll impact your total yards, yards per route run, and a bunch of other metrics.  Your numbers won't reflect your talent.  

 

But then you're traded to a team with a genius OC, an OL great at passpro, and a QB that excels at deep throws.  Suddenly all your metrics become better and you get a Pro Bowl nod. 

 

We already have a great QB.  I'm hoping, because I'm a fan, that Brady turns out to be the kind of OC that can maximize production in the passing game.   

 

 

If the answer for your impossible math in your projections is "I'm hoping, because I'm a fan" then why are you aiming so low?

 

How about hoping for 7,000 yards passing and 75 TD passes for Allen?   

 

If you are going to be unrealistic go big or go home.

 

What's your annual salary in this fantasy?

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

On 6/25/2024 at 6:47 PM, KingBoots8 said:

I think there’s more mouths to feed now, thus why my numbers were what they were. I also think we run a bit more the entire year (versus only when Brady took over). To me, I expect Josh’s completions to go up, yards and turnovers to go down.

 

1. Samuel was one of only 2 decent receivers on a bad Washington team. I expect him to play all over the field (he was a slot in Washington) but I see him still playing like a WR2 and also being a safety net, running shorter routes and the potential to break out with his speed and do more YAC work.

 

2. My thought process on Cook is he will run more and catch less, with Davis eating into a few of his targets as he is reported to have very good hands. He could certainly do better, but I expect receivers to be able to get open and avoid him being targeted as frequently.

 

3. I had Shakir pencilled in for more yards initially, but scaled it back a bit as the wr4 and wr5 will be a bit more dependable when they do get looked at. I think he could absolutely outperform my projection, but I also don’t believe Josh is gonna be hitting 4500+ yards this season. 4300 is a bit closer to my expectation with Diggs gone and getting mostly new WRs up to Josh’s speed.

 

4. I also think DK could outperform my projections, but again, I was considering the other additions and playing more to the style we saw in GB last year with many good-great receivers but not one tried and true WR1

 

My numbers may not add up in your eyes, and again I thought this up while working and just throwing darts on my projections. I hope they outperform by every metric but someone is gonna do better and someone is gonna do worse. It’s just offseason daydreams at this point prior to training camp.

still your target > AVG > Yards Ratio was not adding up at all... Is there more targets sure...  But that really means nothing cause Diggs took out a ton of targets last year. We are a Pass first team so thinking Cook will run more with the Depth at HB we have now does not make sense.  i get where your going but noting adds up right.

[eball]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You pretend to be curious if there are "any other".......... but then the fact that A LOT of WR put up excellent numbers with bad QB play leaves you unconvinced. 

 

As @FireChans says,  not knowing this fact really illustrates that you don't follow the league.   It's common knowledge.

 

I gave you a literal All Pro example like you asked for.

 

How bad was Houston's QB situation in 2015?   Hopkins put up 1521 yards receiving with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden splitting the QB duties.    

 

 

More belittling, condescending nonsense instead of just having a discussion.  There are a couple of good examples of WRs who “rise above” but those guys are few and far between.  I’ll just stop asking any questions because guys like you and @FireChans are incapable of understanding any perspective but your own.

 

Good day.