PrimeTime101 Posted June 25 Posted June 25 20 hours ago, KingBoots8 said: I did pretty dang good at predicting catches/yards for Kincaid last year, so I’ll probably be wayyyy off this year. Not only that, but I get to predict who we keep on the team as well, which is hard enough without training camp. All that being said, here’s my future bad take: Coleman: 77 Catches, 688 yards, 6 TDs Samuel: 82 Catches, 761 yards, 6 TDs Kincaid: 69 catches (nice), 702 yards, 4 TDs Shakir: 52 catches, 562 yards, 4 TDs Knox: 37 catches, 414 yards, 4 TDs Claypool: 33 catches, 303 yards, 3 TDs MVS: 24 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs Cook: 36 catches, 347 yards, 3 TDs Davis: 14 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD Hollins: 8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD Totals yardage: 4,354 Total Passing TDs: 34 Again, this is the “way-too-early thoughts of a guy kinda working while missing football” predictions. Hopefully they are even better but time will tell. There are a few things wrong with this. #1. Samuel had 62 rec. for 613 yards with not the best of QB's throwing at him. If he catches the ball 82 times.. Expect closer to a 900 yard season. #2. James cook is going to get better not worse. 625 last year... near 700 yards this year. #3 Shakir.. 39 catches for 611 yards last year... If he catches 52 times... expect a 675-700 year at least. #4 Kincaid hes likely going to get more and not less receptions this year.. 73 receptions for 650+ yards last year, Makes no sense that Kincaid's catches go down not up... your numbers do not add up. Quote
Charles Romes Posted June 25 Posted June 25 23 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: I expect to be so wrong by the end of the year that I'll be embarrassed by this post. But here goes anyway... My guess for the statistical performances of our top 10 pass catchers this upcoming season: Shakir will be a bigger part of the O this year, so I project a sizeable improvement in his stats. Samuel will be a starter and enjoy one of his better years with Josh throwing to him but not his very best. Kincaid will enjoy a modest improvement over his rookie campaign. A healthy Knox will get some of the TE targets. Coleman will need to learn how to separate against NFL DBs and will be replaced in some packages by Claypool or MVS. Claypool and MVS will both get significant playing time, often at Coleman's expense. Knox won't enjoy a banner year, losing targets to Kincaid, but will produce better than his injury-diminished 2023 season. Cook will get a few less targets than last year simply because there are so many other options. His drops don't help. Davis will contribute more in the passing game than Murray's 119 yards. Hollins makes the 53 but is the forgotten man in the WR room. Josh's 4603 yards will be, by a small margin, his most yards in a season yet (in what will be his 3rd 17-game season). Interested in how other folks project this breaking down. that’s the sweet spot of performance. No 35M receivers there. Very affordable long-term. 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 25 Posted June 25 1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said: I think these are very fair points. I will say, though, that if you dig a little deeper into the regular season games, the disparity in passing opportunities is not as different during the Dorsey-called games (the first 11 weeks) versus the Brady-called games (after week 11). Josh averaged 34.7 passing attempts in the games in which Dorsey was the OC. He averaged 32.8 pass attempts in Brady's games. I don't think that 2 pass attempts per game is overly significant, especially when you consider the extremity of the Dallas game when he only attempted 15 passes because the Bills were running at will against the Cowboys. If you take that game out, then Josh averaged 36.4 passing attempts in the other Brady games. So, I don't believe that the team necessarily went run-crazy after Brady took over. That said, Josh's passing production certainly declined, as his completion percentage dropped from 69.63% (261 yards per game and 7.52 yards per attempt) under Dorsey to 60.41% (238.5 yards per game and 7.26 yards per attempt) under Brady. There could be many reasons for that: Josh's injury, Diggs' decline, bad weather late in the season, etc. It is worth noting that Josh's average completion was actually HIGHER under Brady at 12.025 yards per completion versus the 10.808 he had under Dorsey last season. So the notion that the offense was more dink-and-dunk under Brady is also a myth. While I must acknowledge that the team does not have anyone on the team that is currently capable of replacing Diggs' overall production -- it may not be so hard to replace the minimal production he provided in Brady's tenure at OC. I am hopeful that Shakir and Kincaid will continue to improve -- and that Coleman, Samuel, and some combination of Claypool/MVS/Hollins/Knox/Cook (even R. Davis) will collectively pick up that slack. I believe (or hope) that a healthy Josh with a full off-season in Brady's desired offense with better complimentary receivers will result in more consistent results. If Josh can get the completion percentage back up to close to 70%, then even with the slightly fewer passing attempts we saw under Brady last year, we would be looking at something like 390/558 attempts for 4648 yards. Bottom line: those 500+ attempts have to go somewhere. Here's my stab at guessing the distribution... Kincaid 100 targets, 82 receptions, 750 yards Shakir 85 targets, 70 receptions, 900 yards Samuel 75 targets, 65 receptions, 600 yards Cook 65 targets, 52 receptions, 500 yards Coleman 60 targets, 45 receptions, 585 yards Knox 40 targets, 28 receptions, 225 yards MVS 40 targets, 25 receptions, 370 yards Claypool 30 targets, 21 receptions, 294 yards R. Davis 20 targets, 15 receptions, 100 yards Hollins 20 targets, 13 receptions, 180 yards That gives us a total of 383 completions for 4504 yards-- with the other 7 going to non-regular receivers (Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris and possibly a tackle-eligible lineman). I would love for Shakir to elevate to a 1000+ receiver, but I am just not ready to predict that yet. Most of his quality production late last year was a product of a ridiculously high percentage of converted targets, which I don't think is sustainable over the course of a full season, especially with no Diggs to draw coverage away. I am not even going to guess at the TD numbers, but I expect Josh to pass for about 30 again with possibly a few of those redzone TD runs of his becoming passes this year instead, given the surplus of big-bodied receivers. Bold prediction: despite the relatively low reception and yardage totals, Coleman will lead the team with 9 TD receptions. Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 🙂 Agree about Brady. They didn't turn to ground and pound. They were throwing more underneath and gaining some more YAC. But they had already begun that process with Dorsey in the Tampa game. Brady didn't re-invent anything. He continued the adaptation Dorsey had started. What changed was that McDermott took the reigns off of the OC by allowing Brady to use Allen with reckless abandon in the run game. Prior to hiring Brady they were trying HARD to avoid those hard miles. But what you are projecting would be the most efficient passing season in NFL history.......78%.....obliterating Drew Brees single season record of 74%. completions. Josh Allen is a 63% career passer, fwiw. The point I've been trying to make is that the current cast of receivers the Bills have are traditionally much less snap/route production efficient compared to their predecessors. Curtis Samuel produced 1.5 yards per route run last season. Stef Diggs produced 2 yards per route run(which was down from 2.87 in 2022) You can find these and other enlightening efficiency numbers at: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/stefon-diggs/ Even going from 2 to 1.5 is a huge difference in bulk production over the course of a season worth of targets. If Samuel could even hold up to or maintain his productivity at that volume, which is unknown. Assuming more work won't be less efficient........in order for the Bills to match last year's bulk production in the passing game they would likely have to run A LOT more plays. So start off with 383 completions. At 63% complete that would require 608 targets.......not 535. Now factor in that these guys are likely to be 20% to 40% less efficient per route run..........and the amount of targets needed gets insane. Hence, the simple conclusion is that we should expect a big drop in bulk passing game numbers. The alternative would look like throwing 50 times per game to try to put up what Allen could do with Diggs/Brown/Beasley in 35 pass attempts. That won't work. Obviously. Expect a greater emphasis on running the ball.......burning the clock.......and shortening games. The numbers tell us to expect Allen to have his least impressive passing season since either 2019 or maybe even since 2018. 1 Quote
Buffalo Boy Posted June 25 Posted June 25 Accepting Josh “ We are always in it with him as our QB” Allen being on a team without a 1000!yard receiver??? 💩 💩 💩 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 25 Posted June 25 4 hours ago, eball said: I understand your points. I guess I just see them using the short passing game as an extension of the run game, rather than actually running it more. Which is what they did in the second half of last season. Which resulted in a much less effective Josh Allen as a passer. But they won more. This is why McDermott is going that route. I think they have come to a bad conclusion and that the REAL reason they won was because they used Allen like Cam Newton in the mid-2010's. 1 Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted June 25 Posted June 25 23 hours ago, Lost said: Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage. I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season. All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group. I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way. OP said this explicitly.....your range of 3900-4200 would make it his lowest season since he broke out, so same thing just one is pessimistic vs optimistic....and I will say your is more pessimistic than the OP was optimistic based on previous years totals. 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted June 25 Author Posted June 25 50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: ... Curtis Samuel produced 1.5 yards per route run last season. Stef Diggs produced 2 yards per route run(which was down from 2.87 in 2022) You can find these and other enlightening efficiency numbers at: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/stefon-diggs/ ... Yards per Route Run is a stat that needs a lot of context. For example, a talented & accurate QB is going to get a lot more balls into the receiver's hands than a crap QB. That helps YPRR. Scheme can help - or hurt - too. For example, if the OC is good at scheming receivers open downfield, that'll help their YPRR. Offensive Lines come into play, too. If the OL sucks and gives up a lot of pressure and sacks, the QB won't complete a lot of passes and the OC will be reluctant to call downfield passes. Both would hurt YPRR. The fact that Diggs' YPRR was 33% better than Samuels' doesn't tell us that Diggs is 33% better. It only tells us that Diggs was 33% more productive with his routes last season. But the two WRs were in very different situations. Quote
BillsVet Posted June 25 Posted June 25 23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Which is what they did in the second half of last season. Which resulted in a much less effective Josh Allen as a passer. But they won more. This is why McDermott is going that route. I think they have come to a bad conclusion and that the REAL reason they won was because they used Allen like Cam Newton in the mid-2010's. They're caught in this vortex of believing the running game is more central to a successful offense and the passing game should focus on backs and shorter WR/TE routes. Difference this season is, this OC is aligned to carrying out that scheme and some of that is because the skill personnel offer little flexibility to do anything else. Will be interesting to see what happens when their offensive skilled talent limitations show up what the HC/OC do. Keep running Josh 8-10x/game? 2 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 25 Posted June 25 4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Yards per Route Run is a stat that needs a lot of context. For example, a talented & accurate QB is going to get a lot more balls into the receiver's hands than a crap QB. That helps YPRR. Scheme can help - or hurt - too. For example, if the OC is good at scheming receivers open downfield, that'll help their YPRR. Offensive Lines come into play, too. If the OL sucks and gives up a lot of pressure and sacks, the QB won't complete a lot of passes and the OC will be reluctant to call downfield passes. Both would hurt YPRR. The fact that Diggs' YPRR was 33% better than Samuels' doesn't tell us that Diggs is 33% better. It only tells us that Diggs was 33% more productive with his routes last season. But the two WRs were in very different situations. I think your contention that the WR are going to produce like that while the TE room is going to set Bills all-time single season records is what's lacking context. So, incredibly unlikely. I am glad you started this thread because it gives us the chance to be real about the numbers. And yeah I heard the "Josh Allen tide raises all ships" argument last spring about Sherfield and Harty. Beane was going to show me and the doubters. How'd that work out? As I accurately predicted using simple statistical analysis.........they produced like they had normally produced in their careers. Their single outlier seasons remained outliers. This is because in most cases receivers play to their typical statistics. Curtis is likely to fall around 1.5 YPRR. He's been in the high 1's as a low mileage guy early in his career and also sub-1 a couple times. 1.38 in 2022 and 1.5 in 2023......sounds about right. Not every modest producer is just limited by the ball distributor. One of the reasons the people who make money on statistical analysis like YPRR is because context is overrated with regard to that stat. There are extremes, sure. Josh Gordon produced a top 5 All-time WR season with one of the worst QB'd teams in recent NFL history. Then he disappeared from sight even with Brady and Mahomes throwing to him. It can go either way but that's not the norm. If you want to cling to the hope that Chase Claypool will choose violence for one season(in hopes of scoring a new deal) that's a very long shot with some Josh-Gordonesque merit. But expecting a lot from these receivers while also expecting record production from Bills TE's? C'mon bro. Where's the context? How are you getting these guys all these snaps? It's make believe. 1 Quote
Lost Posted June 25 Posted June 25 52 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said: OP said this explicitly.....your range of 3900-4200 would make it his lowest season since he broke out, so same thing just one is pessimistic vs optimistic....and I will say your is more pessimistic than the OP was optimistic based on previous years totals. Fair point. But this is also the first year since Josh's breakout where he hasn't had an elite receiver. Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted June 25 Posted June 25 1 minute ago, Lost said: Fair point. But this is also the first year since Josh's breakout where he hasn't had an elite receiver. Not going to argue with that, I would add that the team philosophy wants to push running the ball more than most fans care to accept also. His numbers could come down but they don't have to. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 25 Posted June 25 20 minutes ago, BillsVet said: Will be interesting to see what happens when their offensive skilled talent limitations show up what the HC/OC do. Keep running Josh 8-10x/game? I'd say that Beane will be on the horn trying to swing a trade for WR help in that not-so-unlikely scenario. Won't be the first time he's over-estimated his WR talent and been left wanting at mid-season. 2 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted June 25 Author Posted June 25 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think your contention that the WR are going to produce like that while the TE room is going to set Bills all-time single season records is what's lacking context. So, incredibly unlikely. I am glad you started this thread because it gives us the chance to be real about the numbers. And yeah I heard the "Josh Allen tide raises all ships" argument last spring about Sherfield and Harty. Beane was going to show me and the doubters. How'd that work out? As I accurately predicted using simple statistical analysis.........they produced like they had normally produced in their careers. Their single outlier seasons remained outliers. This is because in most cases receivers play to their typical statistics. Curtis is likely to fall around 1.5 YPRR. He's been in the high 1's as a low mileage guy early in his career and also sub-1 a couple times. 1.38 in 2022 and 1.5 in 2023......sounds about right. Not every modest producer is just limited by the ball distributor. One of the reasons the people who make money on statistical analysis like YPRR is because context is overrated with regard to that stat. There are extremes, sure. Josh Gordon produced a top 5 All-time WR season with one of the worst QB'd teams in recent NFL history. Then he disappeared from sight even with Brady and Mahomes throwing to him. It can go either way but that's not the norm. If you want to cling to the hope that Chase Claypool will choose violence for one season(in hopes of scoring a new deal) that's a very long shot with some Josh-Gordonesque merit. But expecting a lot from these receivers while also expecting record production from Bills TE's? C'mon bro. Where's the context? How are you getting these guys all these snaps? It's make believe. Here's my context, as I've stated previously... In 2020, Josh passed for 284 yards per game. In 2024, I project Josh to pass for 271 yards per game. Who gets those yards is debatable - which is why I started the thread. But, as a homer, I choose to assume two things (1) Josh will be healthy this year without any nagging elbow or other injuries, and (2) Brady will turn out to be a decent OC - better than what we saw from him last season. To get the yards, I projected both Shakir and Kincaid (by a small amount) to have their best seasons yet. Both improved during the course of the 2023 season, and with Diggs and Davis gone, it seems likely that Shakir and Kincaid will get more targets this year, hence more yards. I did not project career years for MVS, Claypool, Samuel, Cook, or Knox. In fact, I projected Knox to have the worst full-season total of his career. Optimistic? Maybe. Make-believe? Nope. Quote
KingBoots8 Posted June 25 Posted June 25 (edited) 4 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: There are a few things wrong with this. #1. Samuel had 62 rec. for 613 yards with not the best of QB's throwing at him. If he catches the ball 82 times.. Expect closer to a 900 yard season. #2. James cook is going to get better not worse. 625 last year... near 700 yards this year. #3 Shakir.. 39 catches for 611 yards last year... If he catches 52 times... expect a 675-700 year at least. #4 Kincaid hes likely going to get more and not less receptions this year.. 73 receptions for 650+ yards last year, Makes no sense that Kincaid's catches go down not up... your numbers do not add up. I think there’s more mouths to feed now, thus why my numbers were what they were. I also think we run a bit more the entire year (versus only when Brady took over). To me, I expect Josh’s completions to go up, yards and turnovers to go down. 1. Samuel was one of only 2 decent receivers on a bad Washington team. I expect him to play all over the field (he was a slot in Washington) but I see him still playing like a WR2 and also being a safety net, running shorter routes and the potential to break out with his speed and do more YAC work. 2. My thought process on Cook is he will run more and catch less, with Davis eating into a few of his targets as he is reported to have very good hands. He could certainly do better, but I expect receivers to be able to get open and avoid him being targeted as frequently. 3. I had Shakir pencilled in for more yards initially, but scaled it back a bit as the wr4 and wr5 will be a bit more dependable when they do get looked at. I think he could absolutely outperform my projection, but I also don’t believe Josh is gonna be hitting 4500+ yards this season. 4300 is a bit closer to my expectation with Diggs gone and getting mostly new WRs up to Josh’s speed. 4. I also think DK could outperform my projections, but again, I was considering the other additions and playing more to the style we saw in GB last year with many good-great receivers but not one tried and true WR1 My numbers may not add up in your eyes, and again I thought this up while working and just throwing darts on my projections. I hope they outperform by every metric but someone is gonna do better and someone is gonna do worse. It’s just offseason daydreams at this point prior to training camp. Edited June 25 by KingBoots8 1 Quote
ryguy101 Posted June 25 Posted June 25 On 6/24/2024 at 4:07 PM, PBF81 said: Agree with you on the yardage figure. My guess would lie between last season and Allen's 2019 numbers, closer to last season. You got that nail. Having said that, it shouldn't be surprising if he were to post a career best rushing total yards. I wouldn't even guess on numbers until we know what the offensive scheme is. Order of yards ... Shakir Kincaid Samuel Cook Coleman Knox agree with the number's figures with you as well. I think Allen will be closer to last season. My order is... Kincaid Shakir Samuel Coleman Cook Knox 1 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted June 25 Posted June 25 I predict Allen is the first QB to throw for 6000 yards and STILL isn't chosen as MVP 1 Quote
Buffalo Boy Posted June 25 Posted June 25 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: I'd say that Beane will be on the horn trying to swing a trade for WR help in that not-so-unlikely scenario. Won't be the first time he's over-estimated his WR talent and been left wanting at mid-season. This is the only place I differ. I think they know this is a rebuild and they know it. This is a “ take your lumps” year and try not to get Josh killed. This is a cobbled together WR group and Josh is going to have to make do. I would be really surprised if Beane brings someone during the season except for a rash of injuries dictating it. Quote
hondo in seattle Posted June 25 Author Posted June 25 About Yards Per Route Run (YPPR)... Some feel that we shouldn't have high expectations of Samuel because, despite his speed, he was mostly used in the short passing game and thus had a low YPPR. In comparison, here's how Diggs has performed in YPPR... In 2020, when Brady was Samuel's OC, Samuel's YPPG was 1.93. This was better than what Diggs attained last season. Samuel's YPPG was lower after Brady left. But how many yards a receiver gets per passing play (or per route run) depends mightily on the efficiency of the passing offense. A good QB operating behind a good OL getting good playcalls from a good OC is going to produce receivers with good YPPGs. If you're a good receiver on a bad team that misuses your talent and you have a poor QB operating behind a porous OL, your YPPG is going to suffer. The bigger point is no advance metric can tell us what's going to happen in 2024. We've all seen Samuel play. We all know, more or less, how talented he is. But we don't know how Brady will use him in his offense. In fact, we don't even know what that offense is. Both Brady and Allen say there are big changes coming but because loose-lips-sink-ships, they're silent on details. Maybe Brady will find a way to make optimal use of Samuel's talents. Or maybe Samuel will prove a misfit for what Brady wants to do. No one knows. We just have to wait and see. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 26 Posted June 26 2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: Here's my context, as I've stated previously... In 2020, Josh passed for 284 yards per game. In 2024, I project Josh to pass for 271 yards per game. Who gets those yards is debatable - which is why I started the thread. But, as a homer, I choose to assume two things (1) Josh will be healthy this year without any nagging elbow or other injuries, and (2) Brady will turn out to be a decent OC - better than what we saw from him last season. To get the yards, I projected both Shakir and Kincaid (by a small amount) to have their best seasons yet. Both improved during the course of the 2023 season, and with Diggs and Davis gone, it seems likely that Shakir and Kincaid will get more targets this year, hence more yards. I did not project career years for MVS, Claypool, Samuel, Cook, or Knox. In fact, I projected Knox to have the worst full-season total of his career. Optimistic? Maybe. Make-believe? Nope. 271 yards is not context it's just an uneducated guess. Hence, make believe. 2020 is not coming back, hondo. Wake up. Offensive production is way down around the league the past 2 seasons. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/ Last year Allen passed for just 253 yards per game despite having 2 boundary WR averaging 8.5 and 9 yards per target over their careers and his slot receiver having incredible efficiency leading the league in catch %. That passing yardage number is only likely to come DOWN being replaced by journeymen in Samuel, MVS and Claypool who've averaged around 7 to 7.5 for their careers. And you are predicting almost 20 MORE passing yards per game and trying to defend that with context without using any. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted June 26 Posted June 26 2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: About Yards Per Route Run (YPPR)... Some feel that we shouldn't have high expectations of Samuel because, despite his speed, he was mostly used in the short passing game and thus had a low YPPR. In comparison, here's how Diggs has performed in YPPR... In 2020, when Brady was Samuel's OC, Samuel's YPPG was 1.93. This was better than what Diggs attained last season. Samuel's YPPG was lower after Brady left. But how many yards a receiver gets per passing play (or per route run) depends mightily on the efficiency of the passing offense. A good QB operating behind a good OL getting good playcalls from a good OC is going to produce receivers with good YPPGs. If you're a good receiver on a bad team that misuses your talent and you have a poor QB operating behind a porous OL, your YPPG is going to suffer. The bigger point is no advance metric can tell us what's going to happen in 2024. We've all seen Samuel play. We all know, more or less, how talented he is. But we don't know how Brady will use him in his offense. In fact, we don't even know what that offense is. Both Brady and Allen say there are big changes coming but because loose-lips-sink-ships, they're silent on details. Maybe Brady will find a way to make optimal use of Samuel's talents. Or maybe Samuel will prove a misfit for what Brady wants to do. No one knows. We just have to wait and see. Again, 2020 offensive football isn't coming back. And also like I said, you can expect Samuel to produce about 1/2 yard per route run less than Diggs and that was the case in 2020 as well. So you aren't making any point trying to play mix and match with different seasons. And 2020 is the only season in 7 where Samuel has produced more than 656 yards receiving. His career average is like 480 and if you remove his top and bottom seasons it's still only 500. He's a good, journeyman WR. I like Samuel as a role player. As a clear cut WR3 behind two other stud WR's. But he enters this season as boundary WR1 for the Bills. Not what you want. Quote
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