Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[machine gun kelly]

17 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

1) You were willing to put yourself out there by predicting numbers

2) You held yourself accountable

 

High marks to you, Hondo.

 

I was just going to write the same.  Hondo, I appreciate the exercise.  You always have thoughtful posts.

[Big Turk]

Brock Bowers is what we thought Dalton Kincaid would be...

[FireChans]

On 6/25/2024 at 3:14 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

Assuming more work won't be less efficient........in order for the Bills to match last year's bulk production in the passing game they would likely have to run A LOT more plays.

 

So start off with 383 completions.    At 63% complete that would require 608 targets.......not 535.

 

Now factor in that these guys are likely to be 20% to 40% less efficient per route run..........and the amount of targets needed gets insane.  

 

Hence, the simple conclusion is that we should expect a big drop in bulk passing game numbers.    The alternative would look like throwing 50 times per game to try to put up what Allen could do with Diggs/Brown/Beasley in 35 pass attempts.    That won't work.   Obviously.

 

Expect a greater emphasis on running the ball.......burning the clock.......and shortening games.

 

The numbers tell us to expect Allen to have his least impressive passing season since either 2019 or maybe even since 2018.

If we are going to grade predictions, this one was pretty spot on lol. 
 

Bills had their run/pass ratio closest to 50-50 since 2019. Their lowest plays per drive since 2019. Josh’s lowest passing total since 2019.

[Shaw66]

On 8/8/2024 at 1:27 PM, HappyDays said:

 

They don't really have a choice, right? The personnel is going to dictate a low-risk low-reward style of offense. Explosive plays will have to come after the catch, not in air yards. We're going to attempt to resemble the 2023 Chiefs offense (which finished 9th in yards and 15th in points), but without a generational talent at TE and without a generational offensive coach. We will have to string together a lot of 10 play drives, and hope that our defense can execute well on the relatively low number of drives they get on the field because our offense is not remotely built for shootouts. 

 

For reasons that I don't understand that is the philosophy that this regime has intentionally chosen to move forward with.

Hap - This is a really interest post you put up in August about the offense and the passing attack. You were absolutely right about low-risk, low reward. Someone posted that the touchdown to Cooper was Allen's longest TD pass this season. 

 

The Bills are, in fact, putting together a lot of 10 play drives.

 

But they've shown very well that they're built for blowouts.  Everything you said in August was correct, except this.  Few of us, if any, foresaw the devastating effect that offense can have when you have creative schemes, play designs, game plans, and a Josh Allen to execute them.  We got a powerful, high scoring offense that doesn't drop bombs all over the field, and still scores - a lot. The OP in the Brady thread told us that the Bills are second all-time in points per drive.  They're doing that without a 1000-yard receiver and without a 1000-yard rusher.   It hardly seems possible, but that's what they're doing. 

 

I was one who said one or two receivers would go over 1000 yards, it just was tough to say who it would be.  

Kudos to Hondo and to Alphadawg.  They both had a lot to say that was pretty much on point, although pretty much everyone overpredicted. 

 

I remember thinking in August that the negative nellies were wrong in saying that no one would go over 1000.  Well, they were right, but in terms of big picture, they were completely wrong. For some interesting reasons, no one over 1000 has been a blessing, not a curse.  Amazing year. 

[HappyDays]

35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But they've shown very well that they're built for blowouts.  Everything you said in August was correct, except this.  Few of us, if any, foresaw the devastating effect that offense can have when you have creative schemes, play designs, game plans, and a Josh Allen to execute them.

 

They've managed to play very efficient football. I mainly credit Allen for taking his game to another level. It's a low margin for error style of offense and to his credit he has by and large removed errors from his game. It's a level that we've seen from him before but never so consistently and over such a long stretch of games.

 

So basically what we needed for that style to work was for our QB to have an all-time great season and Allen delivered.

 

Also the supporting cast has its faults but they aren't mistake prone like Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie to name a couple former culprits. They don't drop passes, they don't run option routes in the wrong direction, they don't fumble the ball.

 

We essentially excised mistakes from the offense and asked Allen to deliver 5 superstar plays per game, and that combination was enough to lead a middling offensive personnel to historic production. I both perfectly predicted it and completely missed the mark. It's been fun to watch it all develop.

[hondo in seattle]

Coleman, Knox, and Shakir about where I thought they'd be. 

 

But, wow, I was way off on Kincaid and - especially - Samuel!  

 

It's been an interesting year.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Brock Bowers is what we thought Dalton Kincaid would be...

well, if we face a team in the playoffs that isn't good against TE's .... perhaps he ends up with a 9 for 105 and a TD type stat line 

In fact, increasing Kincaid's usage significantly might be something we have intentionally been holding off on until the post season

Edited December 31, 2024 by Warriorspikes51

[Shaw66]

53 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They've managed to play very efficient football. I mainly credit Allen for taking his game to another level. It's a low margin for error style of offense and to his credit he has by and large removed errors from his game. It's a level that we've seen from him before but never so consistently and over such a long stretch of games.

 

So basically what we needed for that style to work was for our QB to have an all-time great season and Allen delivered.

 

Also the supporting cast has its faults but they aren't mistake prone like Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie to name a couple former culprits. They don't drop passes, they don't run option routes in the wrong direction, they don't fumble the ball.

 

We essentially excised mistakes from the offense and asked Allen to deliver 5 superstar plays per game, and that combination was enough to lead a middling offensive personnel to historic production. I both perfectly predicted it and completely missed the mark. It's been fun to watch it all develop.

Interesting discussion.

 

I don't think the offensive production happened because of a superstar performance by Allen.  I think we're now seeing the Allen that has been developing over the past several years, the Allen who's taken the desperation bomb out of his arsenal and replaced it with the high percentage completion.  The example I've given before is that I'd rather have Allen thrown a ten yard pass with an 80% completion likelihood than a 40 yarder that has a 50% completion likelihood.   In the current NFL, positive plays are more important than explosive plays.  

 

And I think you're ignoring or undervaluing what Brady has meant to all of this.  I think it's amazing how often Allen, more or less in rhythm, delivers a pass to a guy who's wide open.  This offensive has an answer for every defense, the players (particularly Allen) recognize the defense and run their routes, and Allen knows where the open guy is going to be.  All of that allows Allen to throw balanced, with a quality arm motion, and deliver an easily catchable ball. 

 

They made the game easier for Allen.  We see it when he's standing at the LOS, looking around, changing blocking assignments or plays. Then, when the play starts we see it because he rarely is surprised - everything is as he thought it was, and then his receivers come open exactly where they're supposed to come open.  But they didn't make it easier by dumbing down the offense.  The offense is as complicated as ever, but it's easier for Allen to run it.

 

I think we're seeing, for the first time his career, executing the game plan and the plays as called.  He's doing it because it all works, and it works because of what Brady has done.  Brady's given him an offense where guys get open consistently and that Allen can execute consistently. 

 

Then, as you say, on top of that, Allen makes his share plays that are unique to him. I mean, Mahomes makes his plays, too, and some other guys from time to time, but I don't think anyone makes so many of those plays.  Lamar may make a run or two that Allen can't, but Allen makes ten throws that Lamar can't.  Mahomes has some effective runs, but not Allen runs.  Not many guys make that throw to Coleman - not the one this week, which was great in its own right, but the one last week, when Allen waved Coleman downfield so Josh could throw it 60+ yards.  

 

Bottom line, you seem to think that we're seeing an accident that isn't likely to be repeated.  I don't think it's that at all.  McDermott doesn't run the team to win by accident.  What we're seeing has been created by design.  

 

Not to make this a LAMP, but last summer I kept saying that the receiver room was put together by design. It was receiver by committee for sure; all that was necessary was to pick the committee.  The Bills had all the guys they have now (minus Cooper), and they also had MSV and Claypool.  And Shorter and Shaver. And probably one or two I'm forgetting. It was very clear that the Bills were going away from the number one stud receiver, that they were taking a different approach to passing offense, an approach that was more like what the Rams, 49ers, and Lions all had been doing - attacking all over the field, creating stress points in the defense and sending a receiver to those points for easy completions.  I could see that it was being done by design, and we now can see that they knew what they were doing.  It's not an accident, and it's not because Allen had some superstar season. 

20 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

In fact, increasing Kincaid's usage significantly might be something we have intentionally been holding off on until the post season

I don't think Kincaid's usage is about holding him back.  I think it's about what the opponent's defense looks like, where they can be attacked, and with what routes.  Like everyone else, Kincaid eats when his are the routes that take advantage of what the defense is doing. 

 

It's all about every guy making plays when it's his turn.  

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They've managed to play very efficient football. I mainly credit Allen for taking his game to another level. It's a low margin for error style of offense and to his credit he has by and large removed errors from his game. It's a level that we've seen from him before but never so consistently and over such a long stretch of games.

 

So basically what we needed for that style to work was for our QB to have an all-time great season and Allen delivered.

 

Also the supporting cast has its faults but they aren't mistake prone like Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie to name a couple former culprits. They don't drop passes, they don't run option routes in the wrong direction, they don't fumble the ball.

 

We essentially excised mistakes from the offense and asked Allen to deliver 5 superstar plays per game, and that combination was enough to lead a middling offensive personnel to historic production. I both perfectly predicted it and completely missed the mark. It's been fun to watch it all develop.

correct

 

although i would clarify 'historic production' to say historic production as a function of points/yards gained. I'm pretty sure we are dramatically overproducing on points relative to our yardage. Some of this is definitely a credit to Brady and the players re: cutting down on turnovers (although many, many people rightfully pointed out last season was itself an outlier in terms of negative turnover variance and this season is a bit of an overcorrection ) but imo the vast majority of that discrepancy can be attributed to Allen and his frankly one-of-a-kind ability to avoid negative plays (notably sacks) while also generating TDs and first downs at a top of the league rate.

[HappyDays]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And I think you're ignoring or undervaluing what Brady has meant to all of this. 

 

I would say Brady is the OC equivalent of a very good game manager QB. Nothing overly special, but consistent and mostly mistake-free. I've discussed this with @GunnerBill a couple times. Brady's best strength is that he knows what his players do well and he doesn't ask them to do more than that. He knows Hollins is mostly a blocking WR who should only get sporadic targets. He knows Cook is the gamebreaker but Ty Johnson is the 3rd down do everything back. He knows Shakir can catch short/intermediate passes in space. Etc. He isn't, say, asking Gabe Davis to read option routes and separate consistently from #2 CBs. As soon as he took over last year we eliminated the mistake-prone plays and started feeding the ball to our highest efficiency players.

 

The bad side of his approach is that his offense is maybe too simple and maybe grabs from the same bag of plays too often. I don't see much creativity, I just see him finding what we do well and leaning on those plays to a fault. That approach has its merits but like I said back in August it's low risk, low reward. It requires a lot of consistent high level execution because any mistake disrupts the whole operation.

 

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's amazing how often Allen, more or less in rhythm, delivers a pass to a guy who's wide open.

 

This is perception more than reality:

 

 

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's not an accident, and it's not because Allen had some superstar season. 

 

I just strongly disagree with this. Allen having a superstar season is the only reason we're having this discussion. Superstar doesn't mean 20 passes a game off his back foot 30 yards down the field. Brady had non-stop superstar seasons while making none of those plays. Allen's efficiency, field vision, and understanding of defenses are just as valuable this season as those Superman plays. His consistency has been amazing. He had, what, one half of football all season where you could say he was below average? To go along with like a full 50% of his season where he's been otherworldly? That is absolutely a superstar season.

 

There are many games where I feel that he personally carried the team to victory - the first Jets game, Colts, 2nd Miami game, Chiefs, Lions, the Rams game we were only in it because of him. Every one of these games had drives and plays that required him to put the team on his back and he delivered in every big moment. I genuinely feel an average QB would have lost every one of those games and nobody would be sitting here today talking about Joe Brady the historic genius. Everyone around Allen has really just done enough to not get in his way as he's made the rest of the league look like junior varsity. Brady hasn't needed to do more than call simple concepts and lean on his players' strengths, because the QB has made it so difficult to fail.

 

Edited December 31, 2024 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would say Brady is the OC equivalent of a very good game manager QB. Nothing overly special, but consistent and mostly mistake-free. I've discussed this with @GunnerBill a couple times. Brady's best strength is that he knows what his players do well and he doesn't ask them to do more than that. He knows Hollins is mostly a blocking WR who should only get sporadic targets. He knows Cook is the gamebreaker but Ty Johnson is the 3rd down do everything back. He knows Shakir can catch short/intermediate passes in space. Etc. He isn't, say, asking Gabe Davis to read option routes and separate consistently from #2 CBs. As soon as he took over last year we eliminated the mistake-prone plays and started feeding the ball to our highest efficiency players.

 

The bad side of his approach is that his offense is maybe too simple and maybe grabs from the same bag of plays too often. I don't see much creativity, I just see him finding what we do well and leaning on those plays to a fault. That approach has its merits but like I said back in August it's low risk, low reward. It requires a lot of consistent high level execution because any mistake disrupts the whole operation.

 

 

I just strongly disagree with this. Allen having a superstar season is the only reason we're having this discussion. Superstar doesn't mean 20 passes a game off his back foot 30 yards down the field. Brady had non-stop superstar seasons while making none of those plays. Allen's efficiency, field vision, and understanding of defenses are just as valuable this season as those Superman plays. His consistency has been amazing. He had, what, one half of football all season where you could say he was below average? To go along with like a full 50% of his season where he's been otherworldly? That is absolutely a superstar season.

 

There are many games where I feel that he personally carried the team to victory - the first Jets game, Colts, 2nd Miami game, Chiefs, Lions, the Rams game we were only in it because of him. Every one of these games had drives and plays that required him to put the team on his back and he delivered in every big moment. I genuinely feel an average QB would have lost every one of those games and nobody would be sitting here today about Joe Brady the historic genius. Everyone around Allen has really just done enough to not get in his way as he's made the rest of the league look like junior varsity. Brady hasn't needed to do more than call simple concepts and lean on his players' strengths, because the QB has made it so difficult to fail.

Thanks. That's some of the best analysis I've seen here.  Good stuff.  

 

As to your first two paragraphs, I think you describe exactly what McDermott is trying to do.  He thinks that if he's loaded his team with guys who are superior talents (not stars, but superior), who are smart and who are willing to play a team game, he'll have a team that keeps getting better and better. McDermott believes that the team that executes better, over and over, will beat the team with some stars who execute well.  

 

Still, I hear you about Allen and of course you're right. Allen makes it all work. But we've always known that about football. Mahomes makes it all work. Brady makes it all work.  

 

I think McDermott would say that he can keep it working even when he loses players, other than Allen. McDermott has shown that he CAN keep it all working, even though he lost what seemed to be a lot of core players.  He HAD an answer for the interior offensive line, he HAD an answer for the receiver room, he HAD an answer an answer at safety.  Is the answer always better?  Well, maybe not better than what was replaced, but the object isn't to replace those players with other players like them; the object is to replace them with players who keep the system running. 

 

Frankly, my view of this team is that it's already out-performed in the win-loss column and had a successful season if it gets one playoff win. I know, that's not the goal and all of that, but to have done a substantial retooling and end up with a BETTER team, that's darn good.  This may not be a team that can win a Super Bowl, but it's pretty impressive even if it doesn't.  I think that 2025 is when McDermott's system will prove itself with a REALLY big year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KingBoots8]

On 6/24/2024 at 4:45 PM, KingBoots8 said:

I did pretty dang good at predicting catches/yards for Kincaid last year, so I’ll probably be wayyyy off this year. Not only that, but I get to predict who we keep on the team as well, which is hard enough without training camp. All that being said, here’s my future bad take:

 

 

Coleman: 77 Catches, 688 yards, 6 TDs

Samuel: 82 Catches, 761 yards, 6 TDs

Kincaid: 69 catches (nice), 702 yards, 4 TDs

Shakir: 52 catches, 562 yards, 4 TDs

Knox: 37 catches, 414 yards, 4 TDs

Claypool: 33 catches, 303 yards, 3 TDs

MVS: 24 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs

Cook: 36 catches, 347 yards, 3 TDs

Davis: 14 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD

Hollins: 8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD

 

Totals yardage: 4,354

Total Passing TDs: 34
 

 

Again, this is the “way-too-early thoughts of a guy kinda working while missing football” predictions. Hopefully they are even better but time will tell.

Updated with actual results through week 17:
 

Coleman: 27 Catches, 525 yards, 4 TDs (12 games)

   - way over on catches, yardage was lower, TD’s close. Yardage and TD’s likely more accurate if he didn’t miss time

 

Samuel: 24 Catches, 201 yards, 1 TD (13 games)

   - lol.

 

Kincaid: 44 catches, 448 yards, 2 TDs (13 games)

   - I stand by my numbers if he had stayed healthy

 

Shakir: 76 catches, 821 yards, 4 TDs (15 games)

   - Dude is a beast. Got the TDs, way under on catches and yards. I thought Samuel would eat into his totals more than anyone else. He should be re-signed sooner rather than later: he’s prime Cole Beasley with no drama

 

Knox: 22 catches, 311  yards, 1 TD (16 games)

   - Kincaid really solidified his hold on the TE position, so Knox has had fewer opportunities this season. I thought he’d be a little more incorporated into the gameplans but the coaches know better than I do.

 

Cook: 32 catches, 258 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)

   - I was reasonably close here: the yardage was lower but the catches and TD’s are right where I expected. I knew Davis would eat into his catches just based on skillsets. 
 

Davis: 15 catches, 188 yards, 2 TDs (16 games)

   - probably my most accurate estimate overall. He’s a fantastic asset to the team and in hindsight I am very glad we got him. I don’t think he could “replace” Cook since their skills are not the same, but I think next year he will see more action for sure.

 

 

Hollins: 28 catches, 353 yards, 5 TDs (16 games)

   - Boy was I wrong. 20 more catches, 2x the yards, 5x the TDs. He really stepped up and has been a welcome addition this season. Now, I made my predictions before roster cuts had been made, so I thought he’d be the odd man out, but with MVS and Claypool not sticking he was the benefactor in a massive way. He has great blocking skills, can make catches when his number is called, and costs about 8x less than Gabe Davis did. Slam dunk signing, and helps forget the stink of the Samuel signing.

 

 

Josh numbers (16 games):

Passing yardage: 3,731

Rushing Yardage: 531

Total Yardage: 4,262

Total Passing TDs: 28

 

 

His passing TD’s are just about the same as they were last year, but pass yards are down. That is to be expected with James Cook turning a corner with his rushing abilities. Josh’s rush yards and TD’s are very close as well this season to where they were last year.

 

I should have assumed Josh would throw less with a more balanced offense, but I thought for sure he would be slinging it way more often. His INT numbers are incredibly low this season, proving that he (somehow) can be even better than we thought. He’s a freak, and hopefully a future MVP as well.

 

All in all, I did ok. I was surprised how many dudes missed a few games here and there looking back, but everyone seemed to cover for each other very well most games.
 

 

 

removed the following due to IR/releases:

 

Claypool: 33 catches, 303 yards, 3 TDs

- (had 0, was placed on IR at season start)

MVS: 24 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs

- (2 catches, 26 yards, 0 TDs. Released after getting Amari Cooper, who has 20 catches, 297 yards, 2 TDS)

 

[BearNorth]

I saw someone mention Gabe and McKenzie.  Can the case be made that their inability to finish the catch was contributing to Josh's historically high INT #'s prior to this season.  This year relatively Josh has thrown relatively the fewest INT's of his career, and wondering if it's because his targets are more reliable at catching the ball.