Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024

[julian]

I see plenty of conservative estimations with Kincaid, I’ll go out on that limb I guess 

 

100+ rec

1250 yards 

8 TDs

Edited June 25 by julian

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, julian said:

I see plenty of conservative estimations with Kincaid, I’ll go out on that limb I guess 

 

100+ rec

1250 yards 

8 TDs

He has to be the focus of the passing game. He's a first round pick. If he has the same amount of receptions as last year and third in yards, I'm disappointed.

[without a drought]

11 hours ago, Gugny said:

If he’s allowed to play, certainly. 
 

Shakir had 20 targets in his entire rookie regular season. 
 

That’s pathetic. 
 

 

So you're saying there's a chance

[Gugny]

8 minutes ago, without a drought said:

So you're saying there's a chance

As long as Father Sean can get out of his own way, yes. 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I wanna say Kincaid had a similar statistical trend. I expect one of these guys to go over 1000, which isn't that hard to do in today's NFL.

 

He did actually...first 6 games he had 17 catches for 118 yards and the last 11 he had 56 catches for 555 yards. If you project his last 11 games over a full season it comes out to 86 catches for 935 yards.

Edited June 25 by Big Turk

[JP51]

10 hours ago, julian said:

I see plenty of conservative estimations with Kincaid, I’ll go out on that limb I guess 

 

100+ rec

1250 yards 

8 TDs

I agree here... I cant contemplate everyone else at this point.... but Kincaids production I see on a pretty steep increase... So I do think 90-100 receptions and 1000 yards for him. I think he beats out Shakir in receptions and yardage as well... 

[eball]

17 hours ago, Lost said:

Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage.   I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season.   All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group.  I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way.  

 

17 x 250 = 4250.  I think that is the floor for Josh's passing yards this season.  I'm guessing he'll wind up around 4600.

 

Unlike others, I don't see the Bills trying to run more.  They want to be able to run when they need to, but everyone knows you score through the passing game.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 hours ago, Lost said:

Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage.   I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season.   All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group.  I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way.  

 

I think thats part of it, but i also think we were a largely soft team in the dorsey/daboll offenses.  Coleman, Kincaid/knox, even Shakir gives you some guys who will fight for YAC and just generally hit back.  Brady really likes those 3x1 swing pass looks as well, and it just gives you a multitude of options on how to approach it.  

[PBF81]

17 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I hope you're right about Shakir breaking out and maybe he does.  

 

But so far in two seasons, he has 772 yards receiving.  I'm already guessing that he'll surpass his two year total in just one season.  I just couldn't convince myself he'd have such a huge breakout that he'll surpass 1,000. 

 

But I really want to be wrong.

 

Keep in mind though that he's had Allen favorites Diggs & Davis ahead of him. 

 

Now he's the favorite. 

 

It's going to be a very interesting season from the offensive perspective to be sure.  

 

 

Edited June 25 by PBF81

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Keep in mind though that he's had Allen favorites Diggs & Davis ahead of him. 

 

Now he's the favorite. 

 

It's going to be a very interesting season from the offensive perspective to be sure.  

 

 

 

I'm not sure how its all going to shake out tbh.  Shakir always projected as a primarily slot player due to his size, but so has Samuel - so i think they'll probably mix and match them at flanker opposite likely Coleman/MVS.  If one of them takes the job and runs with it i think that player has potential for 1000+ yards, since the slot targets are likely to be split with Kincaid.  

[BADOLBILZ]

33 minutes ago, eball said:

 

17 x 250 = 4250.  I think that is the floor for Josh's passing yards this season.  I'm guessing he'll wind up around 4600.

 

Unlike others, I don't see the Bills trying to run more.  They want to be able to run when they need to, but everyone knows you score through the passing game.

 

 

Are you expecting Ken Dorsey to return so Allen can throw for 250+ yards 60% of the time? 

 

Under Joe Brady.......Allen had 250 yards passing just 3 times in 9 games(7 regular 2 post).

 

Including only once in the last 7 games.

 

And it wasn't just for a lack of attempts.........he threw the ball 42 times in KC for just 233 yards and then finished the season with 39 attempts for just 186 yards against KC.

 

Unless a true All Pro WR emerges from their group they will almost certainly HAVE TO run the ball more than they did overall last season to achieve similar results.  

 

This means more clock control.......less possessions.......less yards per play........less yards passing.........and less yards per game and probably less points per game.

 

It's pretty easy to see that this is what McDermott has in mind.   You aren't going to add together two lesser players to share a position and have them match the efficiency of Diggs.  It's not like a left/right platoon in baseball.   Just look at Mahomes last season.......his passing yardage dropped by 1,000 yards from 2022 due to early season uncertainty and down years from Kelce and MVS.  

 

McDermott wants "complementary" football.   An offense that burns clock and scores 20+ and keeps his defense fresh so it can allow less than 20.

 

 

[Rigotz]

Thanks for putting this together. I think it's a really interesting conversation.

 

Only one big area I disagree on.

 

9 receptions is waaaaay too low for Hollins. Yes, he's the forgotten man, but I think he's only forgotten by this message board and most of Bills Mafia.

 

I think he's going to start many 21 Personnel sets as the Heavy X receiver. 

 

In other words, if it's a running down (any short yardage down), I can imagine Brady wanting Hollins as the boundary receiver. He's a great blocker and has sure hands. Imagine what they can do with 2 TE on the field AND Hollins potentially motioning inside as an extra blocker. Play action passes to the X out of this formation is good for 10-15 receptions alone.

 

Who would I take from? Curtis Samuel. 70 would be his second highest reception total in 7 years and there are more mouths to feed in this offense than Carolina and Washington.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

17 x 250 = 4250.  I think that is the floor for Josh's passing yards this season.  I'm guessing he'll wind up around 4600.

 

Unlike others, I don't see the Bills trying to run more.  They want to be able to run when they need to, but everyone knows you score through the passing game.

 

 

I think the Bills want to be able to exploit whatever matchup advantages they have and in the games where they feel it's in the run game(like against the Cowboys last year), they will likely look to be more run heavy.  But agree, in general, the Bills know they go as Allen goes.

[eball]

42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Are you expecting Ken Dorsey to return so Allen can throw for 250+ yards 60% of the time? 

 

Under Joe Brady.......Allen had 250 yards passing just 3 times in 9 games(7 regular 2 post).

 

Including only once in the last 7 games.

 

And it wasn't just for a lack of attempts.........he threw the ball 42 times in KC for just 233 yards and then finished the season with 39 attempts for just 186 yards against KC.

 

Unless a true All Pro WR emerges from their group they will almost certainly HAVE TO run the ball more than they did overall last season to achieve similar results.  

 

This means more clock control.......less possessions.......less yards per play........less yards passing.........and less yards per game and probably less points per game.

 

It's pretty easy to see that this is what McDermott has in mind.   You aren't going to add together two lesser players to share a position and have them match the efficiency of Diggs.  It's not like a left/right platoon in baseball.   Just look at Mahomes last season.......his passing yardage dropped by 1,000 yards from 2022 due to early season uncertainty and down years from Kelce and MVS.  

 

McDermott wants "complementary" football.   An offense that burns clock and scores 20+ and keeps his defense fresh so it can allow less than 20.

 

 

 

I understand your points.  I guess I just see them using the short passing game as an extension of the run game, rather than actually running it more.

 

[Bookie Man]

It's crazy to think that any one of 4 guys could lead the team in receiving. Can you think of another time that you could say this for any other team? 2 is common, 3 is rare. But I feel like 4 is unheard of. Normally that wouldn't be a good thing. But I definitely think it's a positive in this case. DC's might be confused on who to put their #1 cover guy on lol. 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Are you expecting Ken Dorsey to return so Allen can throw for 250+ yards 60% of the time? 

 

Under Joe Brady.......Allen had 250 yards passing just 3 times in 9 games(7 regular 2 post).

 

...

 

 

 

When we witnessed this live last season, I was really worried.  And I was not pleased when the adjective, "interim," was removed from Brady's OC title.  

 

But I'm hanging on to some hope that Brady will achieve more aerial success this year with a playbook that he likes and believes in.  Supposedly, he's added in new concepts that Dorsey hadn't used.  

 

If Brady is no better in 2024 than he was in 2023, we're screwed.  But I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.  

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

Thanks for putting this together. I think it's a really interesting conversation.

 

Only one big area I disagree on.

 

9 receptions is waaaaay too low for Hollins. Yes, he's the forgotten man, but I think he's only forgotten by this message board and most of Bills Mafia.

 

I think he's going to start many 21 Personnel sets as the Heavy X receiver. 

 

In other words, if it's a running down (any short yardage down), I can imagine Brady wanting Hollins as the boundary receiver. He's a great blocker and has sure hands. Imagine what they can do with 2 TE on the field AND Hollins potentially motioning inside as an extra blocker. Play action passes to the X out of this formation is good for 10-15 receptions alone.

 

Who would I take from? Curtis Samuel. 70 would be his second highest reception total in 7 years and there are more mouths to feed in this offense than Carolina and Washington.

 

Good comments.

 

I'm not unaware of Hollins' talents.   But as I thought this through, I guessed six WRs would make the final 53.  It seemed unlikely, however, that all six would get appreciable playing time.  One of them was bound to get lost in the depth chart and I guessed it would be Hollins.  

But you may be right and Brady finds value in getting Hollins onto the field in certain packages/situations.  In fact, I think Brady is an even more interesting question mark heading into the season than his WR room.  

 

Of course, as soon as one of these guys gets hurt, all our projections turn to garbage.  

[Putin]

20 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

I did pretty dang good at predicting catches/yards for Kincaid last year, so I’ll probably be wayyyy off this year. Not only that, but I get to predict who we keep on the team as well, which is hard enough without training camp. All that being said, here’s my future bad take:

 

 

Coleman: 77 Catches, 688 yards, 6 TDs

Samuel: 82 Catches, 761 yards, 6 TDs

Kincaid: 69 catches (nice), 702 yards, 4 TDs

Shakir: 52 catches, 562 yards, 4 TDs

Knox: 37 catches, 414 yards, 4 TDs

Claypool: 33 catches, 303 yards, 3 TDs

MVS: 24 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs

Cook: 36 catches, 347 yards, 3 TDs

Davis: 14 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD

Hollins: 8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD

 

Totals yardage: 4,354

Total Passing TDs: 34
 

 

Again, this is the “way-too-early thoughts of a guy kinda working while missing football” predictions. Hopefully they are even better but time will tell.

I think Shakir will be Josh’s favorite go to  WR he’s one of the league’s top with YAC and got solid hands and most importantly Josh trusts him ,  Coleman will be a nightmare to defend in the red zone and could easily have 10 plus TD’s 

Edited June 25 by Putin

[2003Contenders]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Are you expecting Ken Dorsey to return so Allen can throw for 250+ yards 60% of the time? 

 

Under Joe Brady.......Allen had 250 yards passing just 3 times in 9 games(7 regular 2 post).

 

Including only once in the last 7 games.

 

And it wasn't just for a lack of attempts.........he threw the ball 42 times in KC for just 233 yards and then finished the season with 39 attempts for just 186 yards against KC.

 

Unless a true All Pro WR emerges from their group they will almost certainly HAVE TO run the ball more than they did overall last season to achieve similar results.  

 

This means more clock control.......less possessions.......less yards per play........less yards passing.........and less yards per game and probably less points per game.

 

It's pretty easy to see that this is what McDermott has in mind.   You aren't going to add together two lesser players to share a position and have them match the efficiency of Diggs.  It's not like a left/right platoon in baseball.   Just look at Mahomes last season.......his passing yardage dropped by 1,000 yards from 2022 due to early season uncertainty and down years from Kelce and MVS.  

 

McDermott wants "complementary" football.   An offense that burns clock and scores 20+ and keeps his defense fresh so it can allow less than 20.

 

 

I think these are very fair points.

 

I will say, though, that if you dig a little deeper into the regular season games, the disparity in passing opportunities is not as different during the Dorsey-called games (the first 11 weeks) versus the Brady-called games (after week 11).

 

Josh averaged 34.7 passing attempts in the games in which Dorsey was the OC. He averaged 32.8 pass attempts in Brady's games. I don't think that 2 pass attempts per game is overly significant, especially when you consider the extremity of the Dallas game when he only attempted 15 passes because the Bills were running at will against the Cowboys. If you take that game out, then Josh averaged 36.4 passing attempts in the other Brady games. So, I don't believe that the team necessarily went run-crazy after Brady took over.

 

That said, Josh's passing production certainly declined, as his completion percentage dropped from 69.63% (261 yards per game and 7.52 yards per attempt) under Dorsey to 60.41%  (238.5 yards per game and 7.26 yards per attempt) under Brady. There could be many reasons for that: Josh's injury, Diggs' decline, bad weather late in the season, etc.  It is worth noting that Josh's average completion was actually HIGHER under Brady at 12.025 yards per completion versus the 10.808 he had under Dorsey last season. So the notion that the offense was more dink-and-dunk under Brady is also a myth.

 

While I must acknowledge that the team does not have anyone on the team that is currently capable of replacing Diggs' overall production -- it may not be so hard to replace the minimal production he provided in Brady's tenure at OC. I am hopeful that Shakir and Kincaid will continue to improve -- and that Coleman, Samuel, and some combination of Claypool/MVS/Hollins/Knox/Cook (even R. Davis) will collectively pick up that slack.

 

I believe (or hope) that a healthy Josh with a full off-season in Brady's desired offense with better complimentary receivers will result in more consistent results. If Josh can get the completion percentage back up to close to 70%, then even with the slightly fewer passing attempts we saw under Brady last year, we would be looking at something like 390/558 attempts for 4648 yards.

 

Bottom line: those 500+ attempts have to go somewhere. Here's my stab at guessing the distribution...

 

Kincaid   100 targets, 82 receptions,  750 yards

Shakir    85 targets, 70 receptions,  900 yards

Samuel  75 targets, 65 receptions, 600 yards

Cook     65 targets,  52 receptions,  500 yards

Coleman  60 targets,  45 receptions, 585 yards

Knox       40 targets,  28 receptions,  225 yards

MVS       40 targets,  25 receptions,  370 yards

Claypool   30 targets,  21 receptions, 294 yards

R. Davis  20 targets, 15 receptions, 100 yards

Hollins    20 targets, 13 receptions,  180 yards

 

That gives us a total of 383 completions for 4504 yards-- with the other 7 going to non-regular receivers (Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris and possibly a tackle-eligible lineman).

 

I would love for Shakir to elevate to a 1000+ receiver, but I am just not ready to predict that yet. Most of his quality production late last year was a product of a ridiculously high percentage of converted targets, which I don't think is sustainable over the course of a full season, especially with no Diggs to draw coverage away.  I am not even going to guess at the TD numbers, but I expect Josh to pass for about 30 again with possibly a few of those redzone TD runs of his becoming passes this year instead, given the surplus of big-bodied receivers.

 

Bold prediction: despite the relatively low reception and yardage totals, Coleman will lead the team with 9 TD receptions.

 

Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 🙂

 

[bigK14094]

I think Coleman and Kincaid will hold each other back, unless Coleman has moves we haven't seen.  I don't see the big deep threat on the roster.  Hence, no true Diggs replacement this year.