What is your biggest lingering question mark or concern heading into camp?

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

1. Brady was part of the reason. The numbers don't jump off the page, agreed. But the numbers the last 4 or 5 games of Dorsey were even worse AND his offense was so darn predictable I could almost call out the plays from my couch in London. No wonder defenses seemed to know what was coming. But the MAIN reason for 6-1 down the stretch was the defense really rounded into form before the injury bug hit again at the end of the year. 

 

That's funny, I thought that Brady's offense was as predictable as it could have been by season's end.  

 

... oh, that's right, it wasn't Brady's offense at that point, it was still Dorsey's.  Brady's offense was in the Dallas game in which Dallas came in flat and any QB in the league would have won that game, Philly, and of course Brady's inaugural Jets game.  

 

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

2. The change had to come. Dorsey was lost. The offense was turning it over at a crazy rate (13 in his last 6 games as OC) and he was just coming out and running the same stuff over and over. You might say "the DC in the same period was struggling" and you'd be right. I was actually advocating for McDermott to give up playcalling at the same time. He didn't and he found his groove. Maybe the same would have happened to Dorsey? Possible. But he was part of the problem. As for other options... well in-season you are really restricted to guys on your own staff. The Colts tried the "wildcard from outside" approach to a mid-season coaching change in 2022. It was a disaster. Joe was the best option on the staff. After the season they interviewed Joe and Thad Lewis. People at the time were sure Thad was some sort of token interview but his work with Baker Mayfield last year was impressive and he interviewed for four OC openings in this hiring cycle. His star is definitely rising and while Brady was always likely to get this job Thad was a credible candidate and will be an NFL OC soon enough.

 

Dorsey should never have gotten the job to begin with.  Neither should Brady have.  

 

You and I disagree on the extent to which McD, the head coach, controls the rest of the team, so that will be the difference in each of our angles.  Common sense there.  More will clear up over time however.  A pattern has definitely come into view.  

 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

3. As for the bonus... He hired Rick Dennison who was a very experienced, Superbowl winning OC. I hated it as a hire. And it predictably sucked. He hired Daboll a very well respected NFL position coach who hadn't had success at two previous NFL OC stops but with bad talent both times and had just OC'd a National Championship team. I thought that was a good hire and so it turned out. Then he promoted Dorsey, a first time OC, from within (after strong urgings from Josh to do so). I thought that was the right move but his limitations soon showed. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up having success as an NFL OC at some point but he will need better skill position talent because he was running a very simple, very vanilla, scheme that essentially says "my guy is gonna beat your guy with talent." And the Bills skill position talent wasn't up to that. Then he hired Joe. 

 

As for candidates they have interviewed / tried to interview previously:

 

In 2017 they interviewed Mike McCoy (experienced OC, had been a Head Coach) who was their first choice and tried to interview Brad Childress (experienced OC, had been a Head Coach) before landing on Dennison (experienced OC who was a non-playcalling OC on a Superbowl winner). 

 

In 2018 as far as I am aware Daboll (experienced NFL and college National Championship winning OC) was the only interview. 

 

In 2022 they interviewed Tee Martin (former college OC NFL position coach with Ravens) and Ken Dorsey (former NFL QB, first time OC, experienced NFL position coach).

 

In 2024 they interviewed Thad Lewis (former NFL QB, current position coach, no OC experience) and Joe Brady (limited NFL OC experience but won National Chanpionship as college OC).

 

Pretty wide range. Clear experience mattered more at the start when McDermott was a new Head Coach. Though I actually dislike the three names in the 2017 search more than anyone we have interviewed since. Which is kind of the point on hiring an NFL OC - if they are experienced and still an OC they probably haven't had much success or they'd be a Head Coach. Otherwise you are looking at younger, inexperienced but hopefully innovative. 

 

Half the league - 16 NFL teams - changed OC this offseason. The breakdown of replacements was:

 

6 first time NFL OC: Zac Robinson (Falcons), Brad Idzik (Panthers), Dan Pitcher (Bengals), Klint Kubiak (Saints), Nick Holz (Titans), Ryan Grubb (Seahawks).

 

8 with NFL OC experience but not been NFL Head Coach: Joe Brady (Bills), Shane Waldron (Bears), Ken Dorsey (Browns), Luke Getsy (Raiders), Greg Roman (Chargers), Alex Van Pelt (Patriots), Kellen Moore (Eagles), Liam Coen (Buccaneers), 

 

2 with NFL OC and HC experience: Arthur Smith (Steelers), Kliff Kingsbury (Commanders).

 

I think of those experienced names, other than Brady, Waldron and Moore were the two most interesting as potential Bills candidates. They both fall in the sweet spot for me as having had some success despite not having had a Head Coach shot. Arthur Smith and Greg Roman are both very good OCs but only if you are playing hide the Quarterback and running the hell out of the football. Moore's scheme has some similarity with what we have traditionally run as well so there would have been a bit of carry over. Waldron probably less so.

 

None of which is to say I think Brady is a slam dunk of a hire. He'd have been in my top 3 of everyone on that list personally. I am more optimistic than you are based on what he was able to do in adding some wrinkles towards the end of last year using motion, leverage and more innovative route combinations. But it is cautious optimism and he still has to prove it. His Carolina spell does give pause. 

 

It is an argument that the "you must have an offensive Head Coach" crowd have used. The small window in which to find a good OC... and then lose them and start again. Personally I think as long as you find good ones that isn't an issue. The latest change in OC came because they hired the wrong guy more than anything else. If Brady proves it and at some point lands a Head Coaching job, good. It means in the meantime the Bills have has success.

 

I would have at least been interested to see how Dennison could do here now with Allen.  He obviously predated Allen, but in Denver, with four different QBs in five years, including Manning at his DFL bottom-dwelling worst, and average talent otherwise at best, managed to produce average offenses with stiff QBs.  (Simien, Manning in his last season who was horrific, Cutler, and Plummer)  

 

In four seasons in Houston he produced three top-10 offenses with Schaub at QB.  Matt Schaub.  That's notably better than what any of our OCs have done outside of their body of work with Allen.  It's a pissing into the wind argument to suggest that he couldn't have gotten more out of this offense than our OCs to date.  He was marginally better than Daboll in Daboll's first two seasons here.  

 

As to Daboll, you know, or should, that collegiate performance is all but irrelevant to NFL performance in terms of coaching.  

 

You are definitely more optimistic than I am, but we'll see how it shakes out.  Bickering and arguing doesn't change a thing.  LOL   

 

As to Brady, given that this was McD's 3rd choice, if he doesn't answer the mail, at some point the top dog needs to start being held accountable.  That season should be this one.  Brady had half a season to get his feet firmly planted and a full offseason to make whatever changes he wanted.  They obviously really wanted Coleman, which IMO is again going to go down as a Watkins/Jones/Hardy type of blunder, so we'll see.  

 

As I've stated before, this is what they wanted apparently.   So let's see if their vision works, or not.  It's not as if we have a choice.  LOL   

 

The fulcrum around which the pro v. anti McD debate takes place appears to be the extent to which McD's success hinges upon Allen.  As you hinted with Brady above, we will find out more that it was truly Allen that carried the water in that arrangement once McD is no longer here and another head coach has done at least equally as well.  

 

Either way, for anyone to suggest that we've gotten the most out of this offense that could have been gotten, is incredibly weak.  

 

As to McD, he can't even get average out of his defenses come playoff time, which in and of itself should be enough to answer the Allen or McD question above.  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

1. Brady was part of the reason. The numbers don't jump off the page, agreed. But the numbers the last 4 or 5 games of Dorsey were even worse AND his offense was so darn predictable I could almost call out the plays from my couch in London. No wonder defenses seemed to know what was coming. But the MAIN reason for 6-1 down the stretch was the defense really rounded into form before the injury bug hit again at the end of the year. 

 

2. The change had to come. Dorsey was lost. The offense was turning it over at a crazy rate (13 in his last 6 games as OC) and he was just coming out and running the same stuff over and over. You might say "the DC in the same period was struggling" and you'd be right. I was actually advocating for McDermott to give up playcalling at the same time. He didn't and he found his groove. Maybe the same would have happened to Dorsey? Possible. But he was part of the problem. As for other options... well in-season you are really restricted to guys on your own staff. The Colts tried the "wildcard from outside" approach to a mid-season coaching change in 2022. It was a disaster. Joe was the best option on the staff. After the season they interviewed Joe and Thad Lewis. People at the time were sure Thad was some sort of token interview but his work with Baker Mayfield last year was impressive and he interviewed for four OC openings in this hiring cycle. His star is definitely rising and while Brady was always likely to get this job Thad was a credible candidate and will be an NFL OC soon enough.

 

3. As for the bonus... He hired Rick Dennison who was a very experienced, Superbowl winning OC. I hated it as a hire. And it predictably sucked. He hired Daboll a very well respected NFL position coach who hadn't had success at two previous NFL OC stops but with bad talent both times and had just OC'd a National Championship team. I thought that was a good hire and so it turned out. Then he promoted Dorsey, a first time OC, from within (after strong urgings from Josh to do so). I thought that was the right move but his limitations soon showed. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up having success as an NFL OC at some point but he will need better skill position talent because he was running a very simple, very vanilla, scheme that essentially says "my guy is gonna beat your guy with talent." And the Bills skill position talent wasn't up to that. Then he hired Joe. 

 

As for candidates they have interviewed / tried to interview previously:

 

In 2017 they interviewed Mike McCoy (experienced OC, had been a Head Coach) who was their first choice and tried to interview Brad Childress (experienced OC, had been a Head Coach) before landing on Dennison (experienced OC who was a non-playcalling OC on a Superbowl winner). 

 

In 2018 as far as I am aware Daboll (experienced NFL and college National Championship winning OC) was the only interview. 

 

In 2022 they interviewed Tee Martin (former college OC NFL position coach with Ravens) and Ken Dorsey (former NFL QB, first time OC, experienced NFL position coach).

 

In 2024 they interviewed Thad Lewis (former NFL QB, current position coach, no OC experience) and Joe Brady (limited NFL OC experience but won National Chanpionship as college OC).

 

Pretty wide range. Clear experience mattered more at the start when McDermott was a new Head Coach. Though I actually dislike the three names in the 2017 search more than anyone we have interviewed since. Which is kind of the point on hiring an NFL OC - if they are experienced and still an OC they probably haven't had much success or they'd be a Head Coach. Otherwise you are looking at younger, inexperienced but hopefully innovative. 

 

Half the league - 16 NFL teams - changed OC this offseason. The breakdown of replacements was:

 

6 first time NFL OC: Zac Robinson (Falcons), Brad Idzik (Panthers), Dan Pitcher (Bengals), Klint Kubiak (Saints), Nick Holz (Titans), Ryan Grubb (Seahawks).

 

8 with NFL OC experience but not been NFL Head Coach: Joe Brady (Bills), Shane Waldron (Bears), Ken Dorsey (Browns), Luke Getsy (Raiders), Greg Roman (Chargers), Alex Van Pelt (Patriots), Kellen Moore (Eagles), Liam Coen (Buccaneers), 

 

2 with NFL OC and HC experience: Arthur Smith (Steelers), Kliff Kingsbury (Commanders).

 

I think of those experienced names, other than Brady, Waldron and Moore were the two most interesting as potential Bills candidates. They both fall in the sweet spot for me as having had some success despite not having had a Head Coach shot. Arthur Smith and Greg Roman are both very good OCs but only if you are playing hide the Quarterback and running the hell out of the football. Moore's scheme has some similarity with what we have traditionally run as well so there would have been a bit of carry over. Waldron probably less so.

 

None of which is to say I think Brady is a slam dunk of a hire. He'd have been in my top 3 of everyone on that list personally. I am more optimistic than you are based on what he was able to do in adding some wrinkles towards the end of last year using motion, leverage and more innovative route combinations. But it is cautious optimism and he still has to prove it. His Carolina spell does give pause. 

 

It is an argument that the "you must have an offensive Head Coach" crowd have used. The small window in which to find a good OC... and then lose them and start again. Personally I think as long as you find good ones that isn't an issue. The latest change in OC came because they hired the wrong guy more than anything else. If Brady proves it and at some point lands a Head Coaching job, good. It means in the meantime the Bills have has success.

 

Gunner, this is a great recap and analysis.  Thanks.

 

One of the things that makes KC special is the three-part marriage of Reid, Spags, and Mahomes.   A top offensive mind paired with a top defensive mind for the past 5 years.  They've been very fortunate that Spags hasn't found a HC gig.  On the field, the offense is led by one of the best QBs in history. 

 

The Bills have been one of the league's top teams for the past four years.  But I don't think McD is quite as good a defensive head coach as Reid is an offensive head coach.  I don't think our group of OCs have been as nearly as good as Reid's DC.  And Josh isn't quite as good as Mahomes.   Our Big Three just isn't as good as theirs.  Frustatingly, they have the best Big Three in the league.  

 

 

 

[T master]

Mine is - Will Millano come back to be his old self again this season or will his injury plague his play both mentally & Physically ? 

 

I sure hope not because with him & Bernard i think they could be the top 2 LBers in the league given how they play & can play off of each other this could be a Hyde/Poyer  match up but in the LB position for a long time coming ...

[Dillenger4]

Will Coleman be the "guy" we hope he is.

Also - will Milano, Von and Bernard be healthy and play at the level we need them to?

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??

[GunnerBill]

On 6/30/2024 at 3:44 PM, PBF81 said:

The fulcrum around which the pro v. anti McD debate takes place appears to be the extent to which McD's success hinges upon Allen.  As you hinted with Brady above, we will find out more that it was truly Allen that carried the water in that arrangement once McD is no longer here and another head coach has done at least equally as well.  

 

I don't think that is the fulcrum of the debate. I don't think anyone is arguing that McDermott is as important as Allen. It is blindingly obvious in the modern NFL that an elite QB matters more than anything else by several factors of magnitude. The argument is the extent to which McD is holding Allen back. I don't believe he is. You do. That is the fulcrum of the debate. I do not in any manner dispute that Allen matters more and does most of the heavy lifting. That would be the case whoever our coach was. It always is. 

[Royale with Cheese]

WR for sure.  Our #1 and #2 are gone.  This offense looks like it's a similar make up of 2019 but with a better tight end and better receiving back and better oline.

Edited July 2 by Royale with Cheese

[Logic]

The amount of change this team is undergoing makes it hard to pick just one thing.

The Bills have a new offensive coordinator (this is his first year without "interim" in the title and installing his own offense) and defensive coordinator. 

They have big question marks at defensive line (will Von Miller be back to form? Will Rousseau and Epenesa continue their upward trajectory?).

They have big question marks at offensive line (will McGovern be good at center? Who fills the leadership void left by Mitch Morse?)

They have massive questions at wide receiver.

They have questions in terms of the overall leadership void created by the departures of Hyde, Poyer, White, Morse, Diggs, et al.

When I look at the 2024 Buffalo Bills, I see a team of massive transition and change. Any one of the above listed things could be reasonably marked as "concerns" going into the season.

If I have to pick just one -- to the shock of absolutely no one who has read anything I've had to say since the draft -- my answer would be the WR corps. I have allowed cautious optimism to creep in, but it exists among a healthy heaping of doubt and worry. Can Coleman get acclimated quickly and hit the ground running? Can Samuel be the steady veteran presence on the outside? Can Shakir take another step forward? Can Claypool or MVS or Hamler or whomever step up and be an ancillary threat? Tons of questions in this position group. Easily my biggest "concern" on this team right now.

Edited July 2 by Logic

[eball]

The Bills' offense is going to be just fine.  There is one glaring concern on this team, and it is replacing both starting safeties.  That's going to go a long way towards determining what the team does this year.

 

I'll throw a healthy Milano in there as my distant second "concern" but at least this year we appear to have some LB depth.

 

[BillMafia716ix]

I have concerns at safety, the health of Matt Milano, will Von bounce back to his old self, McGovern playing center and how Josh Allen will perform without Diggs

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think that is the fulcrum of the debate. I don't think anyone is arguing that McDermott is as important as Allen. It is blindingly obvious in the modern NFL that an elite QB matters more than anything else by several factors of magnitude. The argument is the extent to which McD is holding Allen back. I don't believe he is. You do. That is the fulcrum of the debate. I do not in any manner dispute that Allen matters more and does most of the heavy lifting. That would be the case whoever our coach was. It always is. 

 

Semantics there.  That's what I mean by the the extent to which McD's success hinges upon Allen.

 

Right now McD has been given quite a bit of credit for how good the team is.  You and I have argued with you disagreeing when I've said that several of our coaches prior to McD during the drought years would have gotten what our offense has gotten here and more in some cases.  

 

That's the extent to which the perception of McD's success hinges upon Allen, not himself.  

 

As to holding Allen back, I've never used those words.  The offense on McD's watch has never approached being all that it can be.  Point being, I wouldn't put it in terms of "holding Allen back," rather not knowing how to get the most out of not only him, but the offensive roster in general as well.  

 

Make sense?  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Semantics there.  That's what I mean by the the extent to which McD's success hinges upon Allen.

 

Right now McD has been given quite a bit of credit for how good the team is.  You and I have argued with you disagreeing when I've said that several of our coaches prior to McD during the drought years would have gotten what our offense has gotten here and more in some cases.  

 

That's the extent to which the perception of McD's success hinges upon Allen, not himself.  

 

As to holding Allen back, I've never used those words.  The offense on McD's watch has never approached being all that it can be.  Point being, I wouldn't put it in terms of "holding Allen back," rather not knowing how to get the most out of not only him, but the offensive roster in general as well.  

 

Make sense?  

 

 

 

I disagree with you on the drought coaches. That is plain wrong IMO. I think the last bit is sematics. I think what is holding the team back on offense is the talent around Allen. Not the Head Coach.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree with you on the drought coaches. That is plain wrong IMO. I think the last bit is sematics. I think what is holding the team back on offense is the talent around Allen. Not the Head Coach.

 

The talent has something to do with it as well, of course.  As you and I have discussed, and compared to other teams that draft QBs highly, they build around the QB where we haven't done that to similar extents.  Our addressing the OL via our drafts has been weak, our addressing WRs until this season has been all but nonexistent, starting in round 4 and mid-late day-3 otherwise.  

 

But at least some of that has been due to McD's infatuation with the defense, as something that he actually knows about, thereby with an emphasis there, not the O.  We can disagree on that as well, but McD's choice of OCs has also held Allen back as has his current complimentary football MO.  

 

Again, we'll learn more this season, but if you listen to his pressers, you'll note that he considers that we play our best offensively when the running game is working.  

 

 

[ghostwriter]

There’s so many question marks at this point. How will Coleman fare? Will Kincaid take a step forward? How will McGovern do at center? Will Von rebound? Will Shakir take a step forward? Will Knox rebound? How will our running game do?

 

The Bills have lots of young talent, we’ll see which players step up.

[sullim4]

Safety and offensive line are my two biggest question marks.  If the later does not gel with the new talent... we know that Allen will try to play hero ball and he cannot do that every week during a 17 game season.

 

I have more confidence in McD's ability to coach up the secondary though I have greater concerns about the talent at that position.

 

My darkhorse concern is kicker if Bass cannot overcome the yips he developed last season.

[Evansfan322]

1a-is Elam ready to really contribute 

1b-will the screen game materialize 

[Fleezoid]