I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Then why were the Chiefs #15 in scoring and we were #4 when every single thing they have is better?

Teams like the Colts, Saints and the Browns were ahead of the Chiefs.

 

Until Allen wins it all, he can't be put ahead of Mahomes.

 

Mahomes has 3 Super Bowl wins and 6 AFCCG's before the age of 29.  

Better regular season or better playoffs and when it counts? 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes is not better than Allen. 

Allen may have a higher ceiling and be more athletic. But Mahomes is better. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

Can I ask a somewhat simple question? What is your definition of addressing the position well? I ask because I feel like we go round and round on this and the goalposts keep moving to fit a narrative. Coleman isn't the first pick in the second round, he's the 8th receiver drafted (Tee Higgins was 7th and Michael Pittman was 8th at the top of the 2nd in 2020). Shakir isn't the most efficient receiver in the league last year, he's a 5th round pick (but so was Diggs). Samuel is a gadget guy and Hollins is a special teamer, but Darnell Mooney and Gabe Davis are difference makers because they signed a bigger contract. 

 

So what is it?  Draft slot, production, RAS score, contract?  Because as far as I can tell, it's whatever makes them look bad. It feels like confirmation bias.

Fair question

 

The Bills absolutely had to either trade for a vet at the top of the depth chart (Ayiuk, Adams, Lamb, etc..), trade up for a top 3 guy (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze) or take 2 of the next 7 (I wouldn’t have had Coleman in that group). Those were the options and in that order for me. Samuel/Shakir/Worthy/Baker or something like that would have been acceptable. 
 

My issue is, and has been, that they didn’t address the top of the depth chart. The rest of the group is okay for their roles. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Shakir/Samuel/Coleman are top 75 WRs. The problem is, they might not have a guy that’s top 50. That’s a problem. 
 

In terms of moving the goal posts, Coleman was the 8th WR drafted. They traded down twice. That’s not moving anything; that’s what happened. FWIW, he wasn’t in my top 10.
 

This isn’t altering a narrative. Shakir was really efficient. He had the 136th most targets in football last year!! There are 32 teams. 136/32=4.25. He would have been somewhere between the 4th & 5th most targeted player on every team. We are now asking him to be a number 1(ish). Will it translate? Maybe? Should you count on that? Of course not.
 

Samuel is a gadget guy because that’s who he’s always been!! That’s not a knock. Deebo is a gadget guy. Samuel will catch screens, run routes, take handoffs and maybe return some kicks. He’s a great guy to have on your team. He’s not a tradtional boundary WR. 
 

Hope that clears up your confusion…

Edited August 14 by Kirby Jackson

[Royale with Cheese]

29 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Better regular season or better playoffs and when it counts? 

The Bills averaged 27.5 ppg in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs 23.3

[Mikey152]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair question

 

The Bills absolutely had to either trade for a vet at the top of the depth chart (Ayiuk, Adams, Lamb, etc..), trade up for a top 3 guy (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze) or take 2 of the next 7 (I wouldn’t have had Coleman in that group). Those were the options and in that order for me. Samuel/Shakir/Worthy/Baker or something like that would have been acceptable. 
 

My issue is, and has been, that they didn’t address the top of the depth chart. The rest of the group is okay for their roles. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Shakir/Samuel/Coleman are top 75 WRs. The problem is, they might not have a guy that’s top 50. That’s a problem. 
 

In terms of moving the goal posts, Coleman was the 8th WR drafted. That’s not moving anything. FWIW, he wasn’t in my top 10. That isn’t altering a narrative. Shakir was really efficient. He had the 136th most targets on football last year!! There are 32 teams. 136/32=4.25. He would have been somewhere between the 4th & 5th most targeted player on every team. We are now asking him to be a number 1(ish). Will it translate? Maybe? Should you count on that? Of course not. Samuel is a gadget guy because that’s who he’s always been!! That’s not a knock. Deebo is a gadget guy. Samuel will catch screens, run routes, take handoffs and maybe return some kicks. He’s a great guy to have on your team. He’s not a tradtional boundary WR. 
 

Hope that clears up your confusion…

Thanks for answering...you kind of confirmed what I figured.

 

None of the Bills WR are proven in the NFL as anything more than a #3 or low end/gadget #2. I don't think there is really any arguing that point.

 

All the difference comes down to projection:  Is that their ceiling, or their floor? What is clear from this thread is it depends on who you ask. Negative or "realistic" posters tend to favor what has already happened. Low target share, poor cumulative stats, draft position, contract, etc. Positive posters tend to favor things like context (ie depth chart and QB), efficiency stats, measurables, etc.

 

Both of these statements are true...the Bills WR are both less productive (ie worse) AND bigger/stronger/faster and higher drafted than last years roster. 

[Mikie2times]

This thread over time

 

 

[ngbills]

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The Bills averaged 27.5 ppg in the playoffs last year.  The Chiefs 23.3

Thats one way to look at it. Reality though is we beat Pitt, likely the worst AFC team in the playoffs, and scored 31 points with two drives starting near the Pitt 30 yard line. Was not the cleanest win as it should have been a blowout. KC played MIA and only scored 26 in a game that was never really in question. KC then beat the Bills. KC went on to play BAL and SF which drive the numbers down. So its a bit of reading too much in the numbers to say the Bills O was better in the playoffs.

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Thats one way to look at it. Reality though is we beat Pitt, likely the worst AFC team in the playoffs, and scored 31 points with two drives starting near the Pitt 30 yard line. Was not the cleanest win as it should have been a blowout. KC played MIA and only scored 26 in a game that was never really in question. KC then beat the Bills. KC went on to play BAL and SF which drive the numbers down. So its a bit of reading too much in the numbers to say the Bills O was better in the playoffs.

If we are going to do this then I will bring up the Dolphins are 0-10 in their last 10 games under 40 degrees.  They lose by am average of 17 points each time.  So an argument can made that the Steelers were a better playoff team.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-playoffs-dolphins-have-lost-10-straight-in-this-cold-weather-situation-theyll-face-in-kansas-city/amp/

Edited August 14 by Royale with Cheese

[Turk71]

3 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

kind of sounds like KC last year??

Except KC has a great offensive line that gives more time for Mahomes in the pocket and their wrs to get open.

A really good offensive line makes every qb rb and wr better. A fact McBeane duo do not seem to understand

[Kirby Jackson]

24 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Thanks for answering...you kind of confirmed what I figured.

 

None of the Bills WR are proven in the NFL as anything more than a #3 or low end/gadget #2. I don't think there is really any arguing that point.

 

All the difference comes down to projection:  Is that their ceiling, or their floor? What is clear from this thread is it depends on who you ask. Negative or "realistic" posters tend to favor what has already happened. Low target share, poor cumulative stats, draft position, contract, etc. Positive posters tend to favor things like context (ie depth chart and QB), efficiency stats, measurables, etc.

 

Both of these statements are true...the Bills WR are both less productive (ie worse) AND bigger/stronger/faster and higher drafted than last years roster. 

That’s all fair

 

I don’t think a reasonable argument can be made that they’re better. Regardless of how we feel about Diggs, he was with the Bills for 4 seasons. He had the 4 highest catch totals, the two highest yardage seasons (4 of the top 12), and 2 of the top 3 TD seasons. No one that they have is coming closer to replicating even the worst of those seasons.
 

It’s reasonable to think that Shakir takes a step forward. What does that look like? If you’re optimistic you can say, Coleman will replace Gabe (45/746/7). Samuel is an upgrade on Harty.
 

They are worse for sure. They are bottom 3 now. They COULD maybe move up to like 22 if things go well. That’s about the ceiling for this group. They could be 32. One move though, and that ceiling is in the top 10. That’s the beauty of it. They have enough bodies and varied skill sets. As a total hypothetical, if the Bills traded the Vikings 2 & their own 3 to Dallas for Lamb (would still probably have a 1,2,4,4,4) they would be dangerous. That pushes everyone into a role that they are more suited for. I obviously know that’s a long shot but that’s the glaring hole right now. 

 

 

[Mikey152]

I was curious

 

Top 5 WR from last season:

 

Diggs - 5th - 6' - 191 - 4.46

Davis - 4th - 6'2" - 225 - 4.54 

Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42

Sherfield - NA - 6'1 - 205 - 4.45*

Harty - NA - 5'6" - 170 - 4.48*

 

*pro day

 

Top 5 WR for 2024:

 

Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42

Samuel - 2nd - 5'11" - 195 - 4.31

Coleman - 2nd - 6'3" - 213 - 4.61

MVS - 5th - 6'4" - 206 - 4.38

Hollins - 4th - 6'4" - 221 - 4.53

 

 

So, compared to last season this years receivers are younger, significantly higher drafted, taller, heavier, and (outside of Coleman) faster. They are also WAY cheaper.

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

Lamar, I agree with you but in the case of Mahomes he is considered the best QB because he produces in the biggest moments. 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years and winning 3 of them. If there was a poll for best QB in the NFL, then Mahomes wins easily and winning is a big reason for that.

I agree if there was a poll Mahomes would easily win. Doesn’t change my opinion. I don’t think there is a player in football that is asked to do more for his team then Josh. As far as I can remember I also haven’t seen a QB that has been let down in crucial moments by team and staff more then Josh.

 

I think Mahomes is a great player, I just think Andy Reids impact on QBs is under looked when people judge Mahomes. 

[Mikey152]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s all fair

 

I don’t think a reasonable argument can be made that they’re better. Regardless of how we feel about Diggs, he was with the Bills for 4 seasons. He had the 4 highest catch totals, the two highest yardage seasons (4 of the top 12), and 2 of the top 3 TD seasons. No one that they have is coming closer to replicating even the worst of those seasons.
 

It’s reasonable to think that Shakir takes a step forward. What does that look like? If you’re optimistic you can say, Coleman will replace Gabe (45/746/7). Samuel is an upgrade on Harty.
 

They are worse for sure. They are bottom 3 now. They COULD maybe move up to like 22 if things go well. That’s about the ceiling for this group. They could be 32. One move though, and that ceiling is in the top 10. That’s the beauty of it. They have enough bodies and varied skill sets. As a total hypothetical, if the Bills traded the Vikings 2 & their own 3 to Dallas for Lamb (would still probably have a 1,2,4,4,4) they would be dangerous. That pushes everyone into a role that they are more suited for. I obviously know that’s a long shot but that’s the glaring hole right now. 

 

 

On Diggs...

 

You should really look at last season again. He had over 160 targets and didn't break 1200 yards. Compare him to the other guys that got 130+ targets and the only WRs who were less efficient were Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams...both of them had trash at QB all season. He was low in 20+ yard plays, 1st down %, yac, etc.

 

In other words, he was one of the worst #1 receivers in the NFL.

 

Do I think any of our current guys can do better with that many targets?  Not sure...maybe not. But I also don't think we are gonna see that. Do I think that Kincaid, Coleman, Samuel and Shakir will have better combined #s than Diggs, Davis, Shakir and Kincaid last year on a similar number of targets?...You bet.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 14 by Mikey152

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s all fair

 

I don’t think a reasonable argument can be made that they’re better. Regardless of how we feel about Diggs, he was with the Bills for 4 seasons. He had the 4 highest catch totals, the two highest yardage seasons (4 of the top 12), and 2 of the top 3 TD seasons. No one that they have is coming closer to replicating even the worst of those seasons.
 

It’s reasonable to think that Shakir takes a step forward. What does that look like? If you’re optimistic you can say, Coleman will replace Gabe (45/746/7). Samuel is an upgrade on Harty.
 

They are worse for sure. They are bottom 3 now. They COULD maybe move up to like 22 if things go well. That’s about the ceiling for this group. They could be 32. One move though, and that ceiling is in the top 10. That’s the beauty of it. They have enough bodies and varied skill sets. As a total hypothetical, if the Bills traded the Vikings 2 & their own 3 to Dallas for Lamb (would still probably have a 1,2,4,4,4) they would be dangerous. That pushes everyone into a role that they are more suited for. I obviously know that’s a long shot but that’s the glaring hole right now. 

 

 

Come on bro.

 

youre telling me you’re not excited for all the gaslighting by like week 6 that “nobody could have known this group wasn’t gonna be great before the season”?

[Gunsgoodtime]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Come on bro.

 

youre telling me you’re not excited for all the gaslighting by like week 6 that “nobody could have known this group wasn’t gonna be great before the season”?

It's as bad as the media In here 🤣

Edited August 14 by Gunsgoodtime

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

I was curious

 

Top 5 WR from last season:

 

Diggs - 5th - 6' - 191 - 4.46

Davis - 4th - 6'2" - 225 - 4.54 

Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42

Sherfield - NA - 6'1 - 205 - 4.45*

Harty - NA - 5'6" - 170 - 4.48*

 

*pro day

 

Top 5 WR for 2024:

 

Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42

Samuel - 2nd - 5'11" - 195 - 4.31

Coleman - 2nd - 6'3" - 213 - 4.61

MVS - 5th - 6'4" - 206 - 4.38

Hollins - 4th - 6'4" - 221 - 4.53

 

 

So, compared to last season this years receivers are younger, significantly higher drafted, taller, heavier, and (outside of Coleman) faster. They are also WAY cheaper.

 

This isn't a tale of the tape for a heavyweight boxing match.  

 

All these numbers, taken at the beginning of a player's career are less relevant that you think.  Think Curtis Samuel still runs a 4.3 after taking thousands of snaps?  Or MVS at sub-4.4?  

 

None of this measure whether a guy is appropriate for the role they envision.  Because someone has to line up at the X and Z positions.  Is Curtis Samuel appropriate for a boundary receiver role?  Probably not as described by @Kirby Jackson.  

 

Thing is, none of this reflects whether the player runs solid routes, or diagnoses different coverages, or can beat press coverage.  None of those measurables can account for whether the receiver has some chemistry with Josh.  That's relevant because the offense is changing and 4 of the 5 guys who are likely on the roster now are new to the QB.  

 

They've downgraded the position and we can debate why, but it'll show up and people here know it.  And, thinking Brady will scheme open guys...well, perhaps at the beginning of the season but eventually defenses will catch up.  Personnel limitations are what they are, and several of these guys are limited.  

 

And as for their cost...I'm not paying out the money nor is anyone here.  I want the best receivers for the QB this team has on the roster this year.  That is the best chance they have for winning a SB.   

[oldmanfan]

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollis are your top 4.  Kincaid and Knox when going 2TE.  Throw in Cook and Davis.

 

This group is better than the group at the end of last year.  

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollis are your top 4.  Kincaid and Knox when going 2TE.  Throw in Cook and Davis.

 

This group is better than the group at the end of last year.  

Lol, no it’s not. Hollins is a scrub. Coleman is a high ceiling, low floor guy. Samuel is a nice playmaker. Shakir should continue to improve. His ceiling is the question. 
 

The revisionist history here is wild. Last year’s group was okay. This year’s group is one of the worst in the NFL. The Bills know that. That’s why they continue buying lottery tickets. They’re in panic mode now. That’s why they signed Byrd, brought in Davis, etc.. 
 

It doesn’t make you any less of a fan to admit that the WRs aren’t good. Josh Allen covers lots of holes on this team. He will do his best to cover for them. At some point, the Bills owe it to Josh to prioritize talent around him. The allocation of assets around him has been crazy. The Bills ask him to cover holes instead of having him turbocharge elite players. Diggs was the exception. Kincaid has high end ability. Otherwise, it’s Allen and a bunch of guys.

[Buffalo Boy]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollis are your top 4.  Kincaid and Knox when going 2TE.  Throw in Cook and Davis.

 

This group is better than the group at the end of last year.  

That doesn’t make them good and it certainly isn’t what we should be surrounding Josh with.

[LeGOATski]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollis are your top 4.  Kincaid and Knox when going 2TE.  Throw in Cook and Davis.

 

This group is better than the group at the end of last year.  

No one can say they are better. They have potential.

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, ngbills said:

Thats one way to look at it. Reality though is we beat Pitt, likely the worst AFC team in the playoffs, and scored 31 points with two drives starting near the Pitt 30 yard line. Was not the cleanest win as it should have been a blowout. KC played MIA and only scored 26 in a game that was never really in question. KC then beat the Bills. KC went on to play BAL and SF which drive the numbers down. So its a bit of reading too much in the numbers to say the Bills O was better in the playoffs.

Its not reading too much into things, to conclude the Bills defense is good enough to win more playoff games than the team does.