I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Kirby Jackson]

Don’t we have this thread on the 1st page already?

 

Yes, they’re inexperienced. That’s a nice way of saying “underwhelming.” 

[PBF81]

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I agree on the target issue.   I think it's possible Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards - but not likely.  I don't think it's "likely" that Shakir or anyone else does either.  I certainly wouldn't put money on it.  

 

If we didn't have Brady and had either an offensively versed head coach or a Ben Johnson type at OC, I would put good money on Shakir logging 1,000+, easily, and barring injury of course.  But we don't.  

 

People hearken to that 2020 season w/ Brady in Carolina, but they overlook the fact that Brady's offense was horrible there, but more relevantly, that many WRs in Samuel's shoes would have put up his numbers given the utter garbage they had at 4/5 WRs and absolutely no receiving TE worth a turd on their roster.  It was a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

 

 

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

With a bunch of new receivers, and Brady adding new concepts to our scheme, it's really hard to guess.  I suppose someone will emerge as Josh's favorite and/or the guy best suited to Brady's scheme and playcalling.  That person could get 1,000+ yards because we will pass a bunch.  But it's hard to say who that'll be.  

 

Strong odds are that it will be Shakir or Kincaid.  Otherwise there are far too many unkown variables to wager an educated guess; 

 

How will Brady be?  
If he's actually good, to what extent will what McD insists that he do influence his attack?  

How good is Coleman?  

Is Shakir ready and capable of performing without Diggs & Davis drawing coverage?  

Is Cook finished every season in rushing at/about 180 carries?  

Will Davis, whose credentials are lesser than either Singletary's or Moss' coming into the league, be any kind of a factor?  
How will Allen manage this new role with a cast of short-yardage slot type WRs?   

Is Allen's elbow back to 100%, or is he still going to have difficulties with the projected shorter higher-percentage passing game?  

 

... to start.  

 

 

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I wouldn't be shocked if Coleman proves to be better than you think and leads the team in receptions and yards.  Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Claypool resuscitates his career and takes targets & receptions away from the slow-of-foot rookie.  

 

I would place the odds of Claypool resuscitating his career as notably more likely than Coleman being much more than a JAG WR.  Coleman's performances in college, particularly in M2M, were poor when he was covered by DB talent that's headed to the NFL.  

 

That was starting to come out in the "every receiving play" video that @MasterStrategist and I were going through.  Not sure what happened there.  

 

 

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Brady has said something to the effect that everyone needs to eat.  Arguably, we have as many as 6 receivers that need to be fed, 2 TEs, and 2 RBs.  Someone's going to go hungry.  Brady and Josh will favor someone else and feed them seconds.  I won't pretend to know who's going to end up skinny and who's getting fat.  This position group excites my curiosity more than any other.  And I'm really anxious to see what changes Brady's making to the offense.  

 

It's kind of stating the obvious that all of the skill position players on offense want the ball, particularly with no one like Diggs on the team anymore.  

 

A good OC would take charge of this offense and if necessary get Josh to do what they want him to do.  That's why as stated before, we need a "see the forest for the trees" type of OC, someone we haven't had on Josh's watch.  

Yes, it's Josh's offense, but, it still needs to be directed by someone with a grand scheme big picture view.   QBs do not have that nor does Josh.  

 

Josh's big issue this season is going to be the extent to which it'll befall him to become a game manager.  

 

It's going to be interesting to be sure, as stated, I wouldn't bet on a thing re: this O as long as McD's our HC.  It should be prolific, and even now has the ability to be top-3 anyway.  It's the offensive coaching that's been the primary lacking element on Josh's watch, that forest for the trees element that is.  

 

The success of this team is going to directly hinge upon how consistently good our offense is.  If it's inconsistent, trouble lies ahead.  

 

 

58 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

No, not really. He played 3 seasons, and the first two were pretty much strictly at RB. He played a tiny bit of slot as a junior, but mostly flexed. Definitely not a WR.

 

Right, and  he morphed into more of a WR in his last season there.  Multiple position players are incredibly common at the collegiate level.  You know that.  

 

I'm not sure you define "flexed," but in the video I linked, it was beyond clear that on 6 of his 7 receiving TDs he was playing WR, five of those six wide out WR.  To me that's playing WR semantics aside.  

 

BTW, if your argument is that you thought I said that he played WR, that's not what I said.  I was diminishing the notion that he had no WR skills coming into the NFL because, as stated, he often lined up as a WR.  Which is true.  IOW, he had the skills coming to the NFL, at least what Coleman does.  

 

 

Edited June 24 by PBF81

[LeGOATski]

It's a mix, but the guys projected to get most of the targets (Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman) are definitely inexperienced.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I live in Columbus and saw a lot of those games live...what I am telling you is he was not a WR at OSU, but a RB that took snaps in the slot. He basically played the Percy Harvin role.  

 

I think therein lies our issue.  You assume that because I said that he often lined up as a WR, and in defense of a notion that he did in fact have WR-ing skills coming into the NFL, otherwise no sane GM would have drafted him as such early in round 2, that I meant that he was a WR.  He was in fact a flex player, obviously, but most of his receptions were while he was lined up as a WR and for sure his biggest receiving plays were from the wideout spot.  

 

If you observed something different, not sure what to tell you.  From PFF ... 

 

Stats to know: Ranked second in the RB draft class with 2.76 receiving yards per route run. Lined up in the slot on 425 snaps in 2016 compared to 220 snaps in the backfield, including 11 direct snaps.   

 

That's about 70% of the time lined up as a WR.  As you can see in the video, five of his 7 TDs were not from slot, but from outside.  

 

He was also billed as a WR both technically as well as fit in that draft.  

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On the other hand if that's the teams biggest need, think we're in pretty good shape then overall!

[Mikey152]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If we didn't have Brady and had either an offensively versed head coach or a Ben Johnson type at OC, I would put good money on Shakir logging 1,000+, easily, and barring injury of course.  But we don't.  

 

People hearken to that 2020 season w/ Brady in Carolina, but they overlook the fact that Brady's offense was horrible there, but more relevantly, that many WRs in Samuel's shoes would have put up his numbers given the utter garbage they had at 4/5 WRs and absolutely no receiving TE worth a turd on their roster.  It was a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

 

 

 

Strong odds are that it will be Shakir or Kincaid.  Otherwise there are far too many unkown variables to wager an educated guess; 

 

How will Brady be?  
If he's actually good, to what extent will what McD insists that he do influence his attack?  

How good is Coleman?  

Is Shakir ready and capable of performing without Diggs & Davis drawing coverage?  

Is Cook finished every season in rushing at/about 180 carries?  

Will Davis, whose credentials are lesser than either Singletary's or Moss' coming into the league, be any kind of a factor?  
How will Allen manage this new role with a cast of short-yardage slot type WRs?   

Is Allen's elbow back to 100%, or is he still going to have difficulties with the projected shorter higher-percentage passing game?  

 

... to start.  

 

 

 

I would place the odds of Claypool resuscitating his career as notably more likely than Coleman being much more than a JAG WR.  Coleman's performances in college, particularly in M2M, were poor when he was covered by DB talent that's headed to the NFL.  

 

That was starting to come out in the "every receiving play" video that @MasterStrategist and I were going through.  Not sure what happened there.  

 

 

 

It's kind of stating the obvious that all of the skill position players on offense want the ball, particularly with no one like Diggs on the team anymore.  

 

A good OC would take charge of this offense and if necessary get Josh to do what they want him to do.  That's why as stated before, we need a "see the forest for the trees" type of OC, someone we haven't had on Josh's watch.  

Yes, it's Josh's offense, but, it still needs to be directed by someone with a grand scheme big picture view.   QBs do not have that nor does Josh.  

 

Josh's big issue this season is going to be the extent to which it'll befall him to become a game manager.  

 

It's going to be interesting to be sure, as stated, I wouldn't bet on a thing re: this O as long as McD's our HC.  It should be prolific, and even now has the ability to be top-3 anyway.  It's the offensive coaching that's been the primary lacking element on Josh's watch, that forest for the trees element that is.  

 

The success of this team is going to directly hinge upon how consistently good our offense is.  If it's inconsistent, trouble lies ahead.  

 

 

 

Right, and  he morphed into more of a WR in his last season there.  Multiple position players are incredibly common at the collegiate level.  You know that.  

 

I'm not sure you define "flexed," but in the video I linked, it was beyond clear that on 6 of his 7 receiving TDs he was playing WR, five of those six wide out WR.  To me that's playing WR semantics aside.  

 

BTW, if your argument is that you thought I said that he played WR, that's not what I said.  I was diminishing the notion that he had no WR skills coming into the NFL because, as stated, he often lined up as a WR.  Which is true.  IOW, he had the skills coming to the NFL, at least what Coleman does.  

 

 

He only took snaps from the slot and at RB at OSU...not sure where you saw he was lined up out wide. Feel free to show a time stamp, but the buckeyes had like 50 outside WR that year and barely threw to any of them.

 

I'm not saying he had no experience running routes, but when he got to the NFL he went from being a RB that played the slot to pretty much a full time WR. There was no way he was gonna put up massive numbers as a #1 year 1, regardless of the competition, because the NFL is way better at covering the slot than they are in college. 

Edited June 24 by Mikey152

[PBF81]

30 minutes ago, Augie said:

Sports Illustrated is still around? Who knew?  🤷‍♂️

 

 

You'll be reminded when the tranny swimsuit issue comes out.  

 

 

[boyst]

We are maybe a C- on paper and that's only because we have like 3-4 4th WR skill guys. We have maybe 2 who are #2 (Samuel and the rookie).

[PBF81]

33 minutes ago, ryguy101 said:

Sports illustrated article says that the Bills inexperienced WR group is their biggest concern entering training camp

 

Inexperienced as a unit for sure.  

 

After Shakir, Kincaid, and Knox, among the newcomers are a couple of journeymen including a headcase with a contract that screams this is your last chance before you go join Antonio Brown, MVS who was channeling Diggs in KC last season, two of which have not come close to matching their draft statuses, a rookie whose narrative doesn't match reality and whose play against DBs headed to the NFL was not good, Shorter and a few other hopefuls that have never proven a thing.  

 

As Kirby Jackson says, underwhelming.  

 

Having said that, it caters to McD's complimentary football MO.  

 

A bigger question is how's it going to look if all of a sudden and "out of the blue," Diggs regains that step and Davis plays well in Jax, if we were to struggle.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

A bigger question is how's it going to look if all of a sudden and "out of the blue," Diggs regains that step and Davis plays well in Jax, if we were to struggle.  

 

 

It will mean some questions for Josh if that happens.

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

He only took snaps from the slot and at RB at OSU...not sure where you saw he was lined up out wide. Feel free to show a time stamp, but the buckeyes had like 50 outside WR that year and barely threw to any of them.

 

2:21 in the video I linked above.  He's clearly wide out to the right, and in fact he's the only WR on that side.  That's the first I looked at.  There are others.  

 

Not sure where you got the info, but it's inaccurate.  

 

 

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

It will mean some questions for Josh if that happens.

 

He's part of it, but the one thing that is rarely if ever mentioned is that we have no coach that is capable of challenging Josh much less directing him to improve his game based on things that they see that he likely isn't seeing.  As I continue to iterate, a "forest for the trees" coach on the offensive side.  We have that on the defensive side, which is why our team is skewed toward the defensive.  

 

Instead, we have a QB that's so good, for sure better than the coaches coaching him, so there's an apprehension as I see it, for them to take charge and control of our offense, and of course when all else fails, as in the playoffs, coaching simply steps aside and says let Josh be Josh.  That works, sometimes, but it's not a strategy.  

 

If we had a Reid or Ben Johnson type, then I believe that they would guide and direct the offense in ways that optimize Allen's strengths but in ways that don't force him to do everything in order for us to win games.  

 

Again, imagine for a moment if Allen were to get hurt in the preseason, for the season.  What would be the expectation with Trubisky?  I wouldn't bet on us winning more than 4 games.  But if we had an offensive system that optimized our talent, then we should still be able to be on/about .500, like many of our coaches during the drought years.  And with the same system, this could easily be a 13 win team.  

 

Yes, I realize you'll disagree, that's simply my take.  I also believe that many things are going to clear up this season and there will be a shift in fan opinion in some ways.  

 

I'll still pose the question, if Allen had predated McD here, and our coach were fired a season after Allen got here, what are the odds that McD would have made the shortlist for a replacement much less gotten the job.  My position hasn't changed, for me it's zero on both.  

 

Again, Josh is part of it, but much of that has to do with coaching, or lack of proper coaching in our case.  Josh isn't incapable, he's simply not getting much support from coaching.  

 

 

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It will mean some questions for Josh if that happens.

 

And BTW, given our lack of ability to secure a Lombardi, the least reason for which that's the case is Allen.  

 

The leading causes are poor coaching and poor decision-making in the playoffs, a defense that folds in the playoffs, and the lack of any other player besides Allen to consistently step up in the playoffs are probably the top three.  

 

Over our past three seasons in the playoffs Allen is 143 of 212 (67.5%) for 1, 642, 16 TDs, 3 INTs, a rating of 109.8, 49 carries for 326 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.  

 

That's a per-game average of 274 passing yards, 330 combined passing & rushing yards, and 3.3 TDs/game and fewer than 1 TO/game.  

 

I'll take that each and every playoff game.  Contrast that with the performances of our other players in the playoffs, McD's highly ranked defense, etc.  

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Maybe but keep in mind they’re a dime a dozen regardless of experience. 😁

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It will mean some questions for Josh if that happens.

Lol no

 

There are no more questions about Allen anymore. Zero. Even the people who hated him coming out of college have come around except apparently you. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

And BTW, given our lack of ability to secure a Lombardi, the least reason for which that's the case is Allen.  

 

 

Agreed. But some of the issues on offense last year, were on Josh.

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol no

 

There are no more questions about Allen anymore. Zero. Even the people who hated him coming out of college have come around except apparently you. 

 

I love Josh. He is phenomenal. But he didn't play close to his best in 2023. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed. But some of the issues on offense last year, were on Josh.

 

I love Josh. He is phenomenal. But he didn't play close to his best in 2023. 

1st in value over avg

1st in CPOE

3rd in success rate

3rd in EPA/dropback

2nd in win% added

 

it was his best season to date

[GunnerBill]

And btw I do think Diggs had lost a step and Gabe is just who Gabe is. My point isn't to suggest different. But the reasons for some of the inconsistency have, legitimately, been put at the door of the receivers. If they both shine (I don't expect they will) that assessment needs revisiting somewhat. 

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

KC - Rice was a 2nd and productive, Toney former 1st, Hollywood former 1st, Worthy 1st, Moore former 2nd, etc… the investment is different.

Chargers - McConkey & Coleman is a wash at this point (I preferred McConkey). Johnston had a rough rookie year but they expect big things. They are also in the bottom 3 but with higher upside.

Den - Better

Pitt - Pickens is so much better than everyone else that we have. The rest is a wash.

NE - Bourne and Douglas is better but they are also near the bottom. 
NYG - Nabers is a stud. We talked about giving up an additional 1 plus to try to get that guy. He’s way better than anyone we have. Similar to Pickens.

GB- we don’t belong in that conversation. That’s who we are hoping to be. They went committee but were right with all of their guys. We are in wait and see to hope that we can be a lesser version of them.

 

Again, there are some others that aren’t good. The Bills are absolutely in the bottom 3 as of today. 

I said that I didn’t want to dig up the WR data but alas…

 

(prior to this draft): 

Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense.

 

 

I didn't ask you to dig up WR data.  That said, your data makes sense, I have no issue with it and I don't question it.  Where I think your argument is falling short is where you say "The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to defense."  Based on the last 2 drafts and last 2 free agent classes, that's simply not true.  Perhaps they allocated too many resources to defense earlier in Allen's career, realized that it wasn't working, and have shifted their approach to resource allocation.  Their highest selection in the last 2 drafts were for pass catchers (a WR and TE), their 2nd round pick in 23 was for a guard and their biggest (in terms of dollars spent) Free Agent acquisitions (from other teams) in the last 2 seasons were on offensive players (Samuel, a WR this season and McGovern, a G/C last season).

 

I should add that we've been talking about "best resources" so I'm only looking at the 1st and 2nd rounds and most expensive FA acquisitions.

 

So you can argue that over the course of time, averaging out the numbers, the Bills have allocated more resources to defense than offense.  I agree with that argument.  But they do not "continue to" do that.  Based on the last 2 offseasons, their biggest investments (allocations of "best resources") have been on the offensive side of the ball.

 

I think we can agree on this - we'd like to see these investments pay off, regardless of which side of the ball they are on.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm not sure if you're refuting me but I actually agree with everything you say here. 

 

My point was that I don't think we can accurately predict Samuel's production with the Bills going forward because he had a low catch percentage in the past.  I don't think catch percentage is the most predictive stat.  And it neglects the "surrounding talent" which influences even something like this.    

 

Most people's first exposure to "statistics" in education is learning about "probabilities".

 

That's what we are talking about this time of season.

 

What's probable.

 

Could Samuel blow out a knee and produce zero yards?  Sure.

 

Could Samuel exceed his career averages?   Sure.

 

But he's MOST LIKELY to produce near his career norms.

 

This gets lost on people,  like the OP, who instead presume the unlikely outcome.