I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Einstein]

58 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Davis was also out.

 

I forgot about that. Half our defense + Davis.

 

We really did field our B team against KC that day. And still could have won.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

One aspect that has been overlooked when discussing the OL is that the offense has been geared toward getting the ball out of Allen’s hand quickly (in general). That has helped the OL’s pass blocking greatly. With this group of WRs and TEs I have to think that continues. 

 

Has it?  It's never seemed that way to me.  But I think that's how they're going now.

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

One aspect that has been overlooked when discussing the OL is that the offense has been geared toward getting the ball out of Allen’s hand quickly (in general). That has helped the OL’s pass blocking greatly. With this group of WRs and TEs I have to think that continues. 

Geared this season or in general?

 

not sure I agree with the second if so.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

If we don’t win the Super Bowl…… everybody should be fired. That seems to be the sentiment from some. 

 

The counter to this is, of course, that some others seem to think that the McDermott Bills never need to win a SB. That fans should be thrilled with them being a very good team even if they can’t get it done in the playoffs against another good team. That that is the gold standard we should all be ecstatic with. 

 

Both, of course, are utterly ridiculous. They’re just underhanded tactics used by people trying to frame someone else’s opinion as unreasonable. Most reasonable fans realize that with one of the top QBs in the league that a team should win at least one SB, but that winning in any single year is not a given.

 

Then it becomes a “body of work” discussion. My issue with McDermott - beyond his horrific 13 second gaffes - is his playoff record against quality teams. He’s 5-0 against 4-7 seeds and 0-6 against 1-4 seeds. I’m not sure how that is acceptable with Josh Allen at QB. (Note that he is 0-5 against 1-4 seeds with Allen.) Other than blind luck, I’m not sure why anyone expects an improvement over that. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

 

The counter to this is, of course, that some others seem to think that the McDermott Bills never need to win a SB. That fans should be thrilled with them being a very good team even if they can’t get it done in the playoffs against another good team. That that is the gold standard we should all be ecstatic with. 

 

Both, of course, are utterly ridiculous. They’re just underhanded tactics used by people trying to frame someone else’s opinion as unreasonable. Most reasonable fans realize that with one of the top QBs in the league that a team should win at least one SB, but that winning in any single year is not a given.

 

Then it becomes a “body of work” discussion. My issue with McDermott - beyond his horrific 13 second gaffes - is his playoff record against quality teams. He’s 5-0 against 4-7 seeds and 0-6 against 1-4 seeds. I’m not sure how that is acceptable with Josh Allen at QB. (Note that he is 0-5 against 1-4 seeds with Allen.) Other than blind luck, I’m not sure why anyone expects an improvement over that. 

 

Gotta get better on the road, especially defensively.  It's not necessarily crowd noise, its the lack of crowd noise if anything.  

 

The old group had 5 seasons - 3 were ended by KC, one by Cincy, one by Houston (though that halftime officiating blunder probably cost them that one) - 3 of those were road games.  It's not just beating KC though, this season especially - they are just likely going to have to win on the road. 

 

They also have just struggled against teams with premier QBs, so i see why they've tried to adjust what they do defensively and how they play those types of teams.  The soft zone concepts worked during the season, but burrow and mahomes make you pay - and both those teams are effective at running and stopping the run.   

 

Also if someone could bounce KC that would be nice.  Big Ben never won a playoff game against Brady, and yet won 2 super bowls.  

[BarleyNY]

36 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Geared this season or in general?

 

not sure I agree with the second if so.

Allen had a Pocket time of 2.3 seconds, which ties him for 5th in the league. Tua had the shortest at 2.1 sec. The Bills primarily collected slot WRs for this season. Seems to fit. 

Sort by Pocket Time under Pressure stats

[FireChans]

37 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Allen had a Pocket time of 2.3 seconds, which ties him for 5th in the league. Tua had the shortest at 2.1 sec. The Bills primarily collected slot WRs for this season. Seems to fit. 

Sort by Pocket Time under Pressure stats

Sorry, do you mean this season or in general?

 

If you look at Allen's air yards, in particular his IAY/A, he had the second highest of his career in 2022, when Dorsey the EPA merchant went for bigger plays and they had basically no slot threat.

 

2023 for IAY/A was still higher than 2020 and 2021, which again tracks with a great slot threat eating targets with Beasley whereas Shakir was basically not used for the first half of 2023.

 

The bread and butter for the 2020/2021 teams was killing defenses with Diggs/Beasley. Diggs lived in the intermediate and occasional deep stuff and Beasley made teams pay short to intermediate while Davis/Brown/Sanders ran deeps and comebacks when Allen scrambled.

 

I think the IAY/A will be low this season because of the talent, not vice versa, imo.

[Thurman#1]

36 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Then it becomes a “body of work” discussion. My issue with McDermott - beyond his horrific 13 second gaffes - is his playoff record against quality teams. He’s 5-0 against 4-7 seeds and 0-6 against 1-4 seeds. I’m not sure how that is acceptable with Josh Allen at QB. (Note that he is 0-5 against 1-4 seeds with Allen.) Other than blind luck, I’m not sure why anyone expects an improvement over that. 

 

 

 

Agreed with the first two paragraphs, which is why I left them out.

 

But I don't see anything much surprising or interesting there in that record.

 

5-0 against 4 - 7 teams? OK, so that means they beat the teams they obviously should beat.

 

0-6 against 1-4 seeds? This just looks like more of what we already knew ... they've got a Kansas City Chiefs problem.

 

The first two of those losses were the 2017 loss against the Jags and the 2019 loss against the Texans. The Jags were not a good team. But the Bills were clearly worse, still working their way through the early stages of a rebuild. The Texans also weren't a very good team but the 2019 Bills just weren't very good yet either. The Bills didn't lose that game in spite of having Josh Allen. Allen was a significant reason they lost that game. He just wasn't as good as he was going to be very soon. Some great plays. Then some bad ones. The D underperformed in that game, but the offense only put up 19 points. They had an awful lot to do with that loss. And we just weren't a team that was competitive for more than maybe winning a playoff game anyway that year.

 

After that, we had a Chiefs problem. Three of those four losses were to the Chiefs.

 

Those were the four years we were legitimately good enough to compete for a title. 

 

In '20 we lost to the #1 seed, the Chiefs. In '21 we lost to the #2 seed, the Chiefs. In '22 we lost to the #3 seed, the Bengals (who then lost to the Chiefs). In '23 we lost to the #3 seed, the Chiefs, who then won the Lombardi.

 

Legit, I think, to say we should have beaten the Bengals. But that team just looked like seeing Hamlin die on the field, seeing the permanent death of Knox's brother, the blizzard deaths, the mass shooter deaths and playing three home games in a row in 19 days including on that had been scheduled as a home game just took too much out of them overall. Fair enough if you still want to attack that, although IMO they just didn't seem to be have anything in the tank that game.

 

But again, you want to blame that on an inability to beat good teams in the playoffs, it's an argument that can be made. I won't believe it, but it can be argued.

 

But basically, it's a playing the Chiefs, and playing them early in the playoffs problem.

 

If we play the 2017 Jags (#3) or the 2019 Texans (#4) with any of the teams we had in the last four years, we blow them off the field. Same with most of the non-Chiefs top four seeds in the AFC the last four years.

[muppy]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

allow me

 

there are two answers, the very simple one first-

 

Beane, for all his missteps, managed to pluck Allen from out of the morass of Darnolds and Rosens. He's responsible for the single most important Bills draft pick ever and that's always going to trump whatever roster deficiencies may exist in a given year. McDermott has no such singular victory. In fact quite the opposite- he's directly accountable for one of the worst collapses in league history.

 

the more complex answer is that NFL roster construction is as we know a bicameral process executed by the GM and informed by the tendencies and preferences of the staff. there is very little doubt in my mind that Beane's drafts and pro personnel moves would differ significantly under a different HC. that, along w the obvious fact that despite incredibly disingenuous protestations to the contrary we very much did have Super Bowl caliber rosters in both 2021 and 2022, is why McDermott is correctly under more scrutiny than Beane

oh Snap . The easy explanation was a straight up facts blast.  You cannot make it any plainer than that.

 

The more complex answer led me to google the definition of bicameral which is a term meaning having two branches or chambers.

 

but I need to know why you believe the red I bolded.  It's an interesting thought. I'm not sure why you think this. I'm curious really. thanks 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sorry, do you mean this season or in general?

 

If you look at Allen's air yards, in particular his IAY/A, he had the second highest of his career in 2022, when Dorsey the EPA merchant went for bigger plays and they had basically no slot threat.

 

2023 for IAY/A was still higher than 2020 and 2021, which again tracks with a great slot threat eating targets with Beasley whereas Shakir was basically not used for the first half of 2023.

 

The bread and butter for the 2020/2021 teams was killing defenses with Diggs/Beasley. Diggs lived in the intermediate and occasional deep stuff and Beasley made teams pay short to intermediate while Davis/Brown/Sanders ran deeps and comebacks when Allen scrambled.

 

I think the IAY/A will be low this season because of the talent, not vice versa, imo.

 

 

You could be right that it'll be low. Or not. 

 

Here's what history shows about Josh's IAY/A, though:

 

2017 -- can't find it

2018 -- 1st 11.0

2019 -- 6th 9.3

2020 -- 9th 8.5

2021  -- 7th 8.2

2022 -- 3rd 9.2

2023 -- 4th 8.7 

 

The words "Josh Allen," "low" and "IAY/A" should probably not be used in a sentence together, or at least without the word "not."

 

Josh loves to hold the ball and go long. His IAY/A is likely to yet again be in the top quarter of the league. That appears to be who he is and it's questionable whether his small variation in this stat is more due to receivers or other factors.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You could be right that it'll be low. Or not. 

 

Here's what history shows about Josh's IAY/A, though:

 

2017 -- can't find it

2018 -- 1st 11.0

2019 -- 6th 9.3

2020 -- 9th 8.5

2021  -- 7th 8.2

2022 -- 3rd 9.2

2023 -- 4th 8.7 

 

The words "Josh Allen," "low" and "IAY/A" should probably not be used in a sentence together, or at least without the word "not."

 

Josh loves to hold the ball and go long. His IAY/A is likely to yet again be in the top quarter of the league. That appears to be who he is and it's questionable whether his small variation in this stat is more due to receivers or other factors.

keep looking for that 2017 stat

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

keep looking for that 2017 stat

 

 

Yeah, by all means, you go, boy. 

[Billl]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, by all means, you go, boy. 

ICYMI, Josh’s rookie year was 2018. 

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Billl said:

ICYMI, Josh’s rookie year was 2018. 

 

 

Ah, I'm a absolute eejit. The problem was that the Advanced NFL QB stats thing posted above suddenly stopped working for any QBs in 2017, and I looked around, tried to figure out why it wasn't working and spent zero brain power on thinking about Allen's 2017. My bad.

 

808, fair enough, ya got me.

 

Thanks, Billl.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Ah, I'm a absolute eejit. The problem was that the Advanced NFL QB stats thing posted above suddenly stopped working for any QBs in 2017, and I looked around, tried to figure out why it wasn't working and spent zero brain power on thinking about Allen's 2017. My bad.

 

808, fair enough, ya got me.

 

Thanks, Billl.

 

 

No the problem is that you didn't know that Josh Allen wasn't in the NFL in 2017.   Which is just weird considering the semi-involved depth of the argument you've chose to jump into.  This is a running theme with you.   You LOVE to bicker but you lack a basic understanding of the subject matter and it inevitably ends up like this.   Usually when you've reached this point you disappear so kudos for at least blaming the internet instead. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You could be right that it'll be low. Or not. 

 

Here's what history shows about Josh's IAY/A, though:

 

2017 -- can't find it

2018 -- 1st 11.0

2019 -- 6th 9.3

2020 -- 9th 8.5

2021  -- 7th 8.2

2022 -- 3rd 9.2

2023 -- 4th 8.7 

 

The words "Josh Allen," "low" and "IAY/A" should probably not be used in a sentence together, or at least without the word "not."

 

Josh loves to hold the ball and go long. His IAY/A is likely to yet again be in the top quarter of the league. That appears to be who he is and it's questionable whether his small variation in this stat is more due to receivers or other factors.

I guess my point is that Josh being 9th in 2020 and 3rd in 2022 matches up quite well with the complete loss of a slot receiving threat.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Gotta get better on the road, especially defensively.  It's not necessarily crowd noise, its the lack of crowd noise if anything.  

 

The old group had 5 seasons - 3 were ended by KC, one by Cincy, one by Houston (though that halftime officiating blunder probably cost them that one) - 3 of those were road games.  It's not just beating KC though, this season especially - they are just likely going to have to win on the road. 

 

They also have just struggled against teams with premier QBs, so i see why they've tried to adjust what they do defensively and how they play those types of teams.  The soft zone concepts worked during the season, but burrow and mahomes make you pay - and both those teams are effective at running and stopping the run.   

 

Also if someone could bounce KC that would be nice.  Big Ben never won a playoff game against Brady, and yet won 2 super bowls.  

 

I largely agree with this. The one point I disagree with is that it’s a KC problem. They just happened to be the high quality team we played 3 times. As you said, we falter against elite teams with premier QBs. 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Sorry, do you mean this season or in general?

 

If you look at Allen's air yards, in particular his IAY/A, he had the second highest of his career in 2022, when Dorsey the EPA merchant went for bigger plays and they had basically no slot threat.

 

2023 for IAY/A was still higher than 2020 and 2021, which again tracks with a great slot threat eating targets with Beasley whereas Shakir was basically not used for the first half of 2023.

 

The bread and butter for the 2020/2021 teams was killing defenses with Diggs/Beasley. Diggs lived in the intermediate and occasional deep stuff and Beasley made teams pay short to intermediate while Davis/Brown/Sanders ran deeps and comebacks when Allen scrambled.

 

I think the IAY/A will be low this season because of the talent, not vice versa, imo.

Collection of slots is for 2024. The pocket time stat shows that Allen and the offense is getting the ball out fast. my point was that this helps the OL’s pass blocking. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I largely agree with this. The one point I disagree with is that it’s a KC problem. They just happened to be the high quality team we played 3 times. As you said, we falter against elite teams with premier QBs. 

Collection of slots is for 2024. The pocket time stat shows that Allen and the offense is getting the ball out fast. my point was that this helps the OL’s pass blocking. 

It's clearly not just a Chiefs problem. that's just spin imo

 

The defensive numbers vs other top teams that have played the Chiefs in the playoffs (Bengals, Ravens, Niners specifically) compared to ours are staggering

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Agreed with the first two paragraphs, which is why I left them out.

 

But I don't see anything much surprising or interesting there in that record.

 

5-0 against 4 - 7 teams? OK, so that means they beat the teams they obviously should beat.

 

0-6 against 1-4 seeds? This just looks like more of what we already knew ... they've got a Kansas City Chiefs problem.

 

The first two of those losses were the 2017 loss against the Jags and the 2019 loss against the Texans. The Jags were not a good team. But the Bills were clearly worse, still working their way through the early stages of a rebuild. The Texans also weren't a very good team but the 2019 Bills just weren't very good yet either. The Bills didn't lose that game in spite of having Josh Allen. Allen was a significant reason they lost that game. He just wasn't as good as he was going to be very soon. Some great plays. Then some bad ones. The D underperformed in that game, but the offense only put up 19 points. They had an awful lot to do with that loss. And we just weren't a team that was competitive for more than maybe winning a playoff game anyway that year.

 

After that, we had a Chiefs problem. Three of those four losses were to the Chiefs.

 

Those were the four years we were legitimately good enough to compete for a title. 

 

In '20 we lost to the #1 seed, the Chiefs. In '21 we lost to the #2 seed, the Chiefs. In '22 we lost to the #3 seed, the Bengals (who then lost to the Chiefs). In '23 we lost to the #3 seed, the Chiefs, who then won the Lombardi.

 

Legit, I think, to say we should have beaten the Bengals. But that team just looked like seeing Hamlin die on the field, seeing the permanent death of Knox's brother, the blizzard deaths, the mass shooter deaths and playing three home games in a row in 19 days including on that had been scheduled as a home game just took too much out of them overall. Fair enough if you still want to attack that, although IMO they just didn't seem to be have anything in the tank that game.

 

But again, you want to blame that on an inability to beat good teams in the playoffs, it's an argument that can be made. I won't believe it, but it can be argued.

 

But basically, it's a playing the Chiefs, and playing them early in the playoffs problem.

 

If we play the 2017 Jags (#3) or the 2019 Texans (#4) with any of the teams we had in the last four years, we blow them off the field. Same with most of the non-Chiefs top four seeds in the AFC the last four years.

 

Save the woulda coulda stuff.  I give credit for what got accomplished, not what people believe (or wish) could’ve been accomplished. As for the Cincy game, the team had been through a lot, but things were mismanaged too. Cincy was not happy that the Bills used Damar as motivation. They were there too and they also supported him and the decision to end the game. The tactic backfired on the Bills and that falls at the feet of McDermott. 

 

The Bills blew an 18 point second half lead against the Texans so I’m not buying that we weren’t in their class. Sorry. 

Edited August 5 by BarleyNY

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The counter to this is, of course, that some others seem to think that the McDermott Bills never need to win a SB. That fans should be thrilled with them being a very good team even if they can’t get it done in the playoffs against another good team. That that is the gold standard we should all be ecstatic with. 

 

Then it becomes a “body of work” discussion. My issue with McDermott - beyond his horrific 13 second gaffes - is his playoff record against quality teams. He’s 5-0 against 4-7 seeds and 0-6 against 1-4 seeds. I’m not sure how that is acceptable with Josh Allen at QB. (Note that he is 0-5 against 1-4 seeds with Allen.) Other than blind luck, I’m not sure why anyone expects an improvement over that. 

There is another angle and that is philosophy.  There are those that want an explosive offense, to see Josh surrounded with weapons.  Seems hard to let either Beane or McD off the hook for the lack of prioritization in the WR room.

 

Your last paragraph seems to indicate you think McDermott is responsible for the "Other than blind luck, I'm not sure why anyone expects an improvement over that".  But why would anyone expect differently when Beane is doing what looks like a cap reset.  It's up to Josh and the coaches to punch above their weights if the Bills are to make any noise this season.