Don Otreply Posted June 24 Posted June 24 2 hours ago, NewEra said: Mmhmmm- pretty much useless in the playoffs Close to it, Sheffield esq type numbers sadly, 1 Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 43 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Zero Super Bowl winners or losers have not had a clear top tier pass catcher in the last 6 Super Bowls at least. I don't know why this statement keeps getting repeated? It flat out isn't true. I feel like this is disingenuous. Everyone likes to move the goalposts...lets take the Chiefs the last two years, for example. The will say "yeah, their WR suck, but Kelce..." but barely even mention Kincaid and Knox as factors. I would bet that as soon as this year Kincaid will surpass Kelce in production. As for Rice...he was a second round rookie and pretty much a non-factor to start the year. You could easily argue he isn't even as good a prospect as Coleman. So you are using confirmation bias based on results, not how they built their team. Quote
PBF81 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 19 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Here's a post I had from another thread...I feel like this is pretty realistic. Feel free to tell me why you don't think this works.. Ok, let's try something here... Lets assume the Bills throw the ball ~550 times this year, and the target breakdown is something like: Cook - 50 Shakir - 80 Samuel - 80 Coleman - 70 Knox - 50 Kincaid - 120 MVS - 50 Everyone else - 50 And everyone is around the same ypt as last season Cook - 8.2 (410) Shakir - 13.6 (led NFL among qualifiers) (1088) Samuel - 6.7 (536) Coleman - 9.2 (this was Gabe's) (644) Knox - 5.2 (260) Kincaid - 7.4 (888) MVS - 7.5 (375) Everyone else - 7 (350) That puts Josh at 4,551 yards passing (8.2 ypa), which would be a career high on what is also his lowest attempts since 2019. Even if you see regression from Shakir and Coleman, that would likely be propped up by some positive regression from MVS (8.5 in 2022) Knox (8.0 in 2022) and Samuel (7.1 in 2022 and 8.8 in 2020 under Joe Brady) I think a lot of you are underrating just how inefficient Diggs was last season with his targets. He was in line with a TE, not a #1 WR. Well, two things here, for me all bets are off on our offense. There are far too many uncertainties and questionmarks about every single aspect of it besides Allen to even wager a guess. That includes what Brady's going to do, which is even contradicted here. Otherwise this gets into an analysis and discussion about Diggs. What I will say is that Diggs' catch% plummeted by 13% points going from Dorsey to Brady. Again, I don't care for either coordinator, just sayin'. Your distribution looks possible although I wouldn't bet on it. I will say that need a WR to step up. This notion that Allen's going to spread the ball around perfectly to lead us to much of anything significant, when that's been a weakness of his, and for whatever reasons and not necessarily laying all of it at his feet, seems unlikely. It would also indicate that we've failed to have a Go-To WR step up, and unless Kincaid is that receiver, ala Kelce, it would likely mean that there are related issues on offense. To me, a good OC would see to it that both Shakir and Kincaid get 120+ targets. But maybe Shakir isn't as good as some of us think he is. IDK yet. It's difficult to envision any other WRs getting more than 80 targets and if I had to guess, I'd guess 60 for Coleman and 70 for Samuel. If Shakir were to get 150 say, by chance, then I'd revise those downward a little bit. The only way that I envision either Samuel or Coleman logging more than 700 or so yards this season is if either Shakir or Kincaid goes down with injury. At some point we really need to start seeing some of our offensive skill position players stepping up to their draft statuses or Beane needs to be held into account. I'm really looking Kincaid's way here for a monster leap in productivity, same with Shakir, and given that those are the two that Allen's the most familiar with, if it doesn't occur, IMO anyway we're in a world heap of trouble. Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted June 24 Posted June 24 1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: There are a few teams in similar spots - KC - Rice was their strongest but is also a 2nd year player with some off field challenges, and a rookie Buffalo passed on. Hollywood Brown is a nice upgrade for MVS, but I'm not sure he's much stronger of a player than Samuel. LAC - Palmer, Johnston, McConkey Den - Sutton, Reynolds, Mims and rookies. Meh. Pitt - Pickens, jefferson, Rookie. Meh. NE - Bourne and Douglas plus rookies. NYG - Rookie #1 and scrubs. GB - Reed was a pleasant surprise, doubs and Watson are 3rd year players looking for a jump. I don't put this group ahead of buffalo by much at all. KC - Rice was a 2nd and productive, Toney former 1st, Hollywood former 1st, Worthy 1st, Moore former 2nd, etc… the investment is different. Chargers - McConkey & Coleman is a wash at this point (I preferred McConkey). Johnston had a rough rookie year but they expect big things. They are also in the bottom 3 but with higher upside. Den - Better Pitt - Pickens is so much better than everyone else that we have. The rest is a wash. NE - Bourne and Douglas is better but they are also near the bottom. NYG - Nabers is a stud. We talked about giving up an additional 1 plus to try to get that guy. He’s way better than anyone we have. Similar to Pickens. GB- we don’t belong in that conversation. That’s who we are hoping to be. They went committee but were right with all of their guys. We are in wait and see to hope that we can be a lesser version of them. Again, there are some others that aren’t good. The Bills are absolutely in the bottom 3 as of today. 39 minutes ago, msw2112 said: Despite trading back, this season's top draft pick was a WR (weapon). Last season's top draft pick was a pass catching TE (weapon) and last season's second draft pick was a guard (protection). This season's biggest free agent signing was a WR, who can also line up in the backfield (weapon) and last season's biggest free agent signing was a G, who is now switching to C (protection). I realize that none of these moves were big splashes, but they do demonstrate a focus on weapons and protection. Also, the increased focus on the running game under Brady reflects protection, as (i) Allen is not going to get hit and banged up on running plays and (ii) an effective running game, or even the threat of one, will draw more defenders into the box, opening things up downfield and also forcing teams to be less aggressive on the pass rush. I believe that the NFL was catching up to the Bills over-reliance on the Allen-to-Diggs as the focus of the offense and spreading the ball around was more effective and will continue to be more effective, even if Allen's statistics are not as good. Finally, the Bills were 6-1 in their last 7 (7-2 in their last 9, including playoffs), so whatever philosophy they were using seemed to be working. I said that I didn’t want to dig up the WR data but alas… (prior to this draft): Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. 2 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Clearly you don't know much about Curtis Samuel... He was a RB in college, not a WR. He was "converted" in the NFL. So judging how he played as a WR in his rookie season on a trash team is a really crappy way to judge him. He was drafted high because he is extremely fast and magic with the ball in his hands. If he was a polished WR, he would have been a first rounder. He was a heavy-duty receiving RB at OSU. Hardly a stranger to receiving, and at OSU he often lined up as a WR. 39 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: All that said, his physical measurables are identical to Diggs. He was one of the best in the NFL separating against man last year. He is a quality player who arguably has never met his potential. This year, we will see if that is a CS thing, or a situation thing. Most great WR (and great players for that matter) are generally a byproduct of opportunity. Well, he had plenty of opportunity last season. Washington threw more passes than any other team. Of Samuel's 5 TDs, three were late in games in blowout losses, hardly game-changing per above. His four biggest games were in serious blowout losses, favoring passing for him. After that his gamelogs were pedestrian, averaging 3 catches for 27 yards, quite often against very crappy defenses. So yeah, not seeing it here. He ranked 95th in catch% league-wide, quite average, actually pretty poor for a short-yardage high-percentage play WR. ... ... BTW, I just looked, and of 20 receivers having logged between 9.0 and 11.0 YPR (Samuel at 9.9), all WRs & TEs, he ranked 15th in Catch%. Behind him, rookie Smith-Njigba, TE Dalton Schultz, TE David Njoku, Samuel's teammate Jahan Dotson, and Elijah Moore. BTW, who was pushing Samuel for targets last season? What, washout second year WR Jahan Dotson? Dyami Brown? Byron Pringle? LOL We'll see how it shakes out this year, but much as with Harty and Sherfield, the hype here on Samuel isn't making much sense. He'll be better than either of those two, but expecting him to move the needle is unreasonable. If the needle's going to move, it's going to be because of our system, in which I have almost no hope given McBrady and their dogmatic adherence to "complimentary football," or Shakir and Kincaid otherwise. You'll see. Edited June 24 by PBF81 1 1 Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 Just now, PBF81 said: He was a heavy-duty receiving RB at OSU. Hardly a stranger to receiving, and at OSU he often lined up as a WR. No, not really. He played 3 seasons, and the first two were pretty much strictly at RB. He played a tiny bit of slot as a junior, but mostly flexed. Definitely not a WR. Quote
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted June 24 Posted June 24 Can we agree on one thing: This year, moreso than the last four years, will be reliant upon our OC (Brady in this case) to scheme mismatches. Even if we are bullish on our WR group there isn't one right now that opposing DCs sit down each week and go "We've got to throttle that guy" Maybe that guy is Shakir thriving when thrust into the spotlight or Coleman refines his game enough to be a physical matchup nightmare, or Curtis Samuel is able to fill the role Deebo has on the Niners, or one of our long shot acquisitions pans out. But right now, it's going to be on Brady to get these guys open I'm not saying it's impossible, but right now I am envisioning a lot of 2TE sets and a big focus on the run game to open the pass. 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: No, not really. He played 3 seasons, and the first two were pretty much strictly at RB. He played a tiny bit of slot as a junior, but mostly flexed. Definitely not a WR. Yeah really, he was factually lined up as a WR often as I said. Just check out his highlight reels from 2016. I don't care about anyone's first seasons in college. How he got to OSU doesn't concern us nor is it relevant at this point. Here's one video, some of his biggest plays are lined up as a WR. In 6 of his 7 receiving TDs he was clearly lined up as a WR, all but once on the outside. Either way, he's been unable to repeat his contributions at OSU here in the NFL. I suppose that we can hope that it changes this season, again, what, 8th season's the charm? Edited June 24 by PBF81 1 Quote
hondo in seattle Posted June 24 Posted June 24 52 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Possibly, sorry if so, but that's also been repetitively woven into the season-ending theme. But yeah, it's a great exercise. It's easy to say that WR A is going to get 1,400 yards, WR B will have 1,000, etc., but before you know it you're at 6,600 total passing yards and 54 TDs. LOL Doing the entire roster puts it all into perspective. The point is that one cannot discount stats but then apply the most superficial ones. You know that. Thanks. My point however is that Samuel in that season where he "played well" under Brady, had absolutely no one that was going to challenge him for playing time or targets. Moore, a 1st-round draft pick was their #1, clearly, and Anderson/Chosen as an undrafted FA has outplayed Samuel in their careers. Samuel as you recall was an early 2nd-round pick, much like Coleman, came into the league with similar fanfare. There was absolutely nobody on that team as a WR/TE, quite literally, that has done anything significant in the NFL otherwise. Here is the rest of the roster for that season; TE: Colin Thompson Chris Manhertz Ian Thompson WR: Keith Kirkwood Seth Roberts Pharoh Cooper Brandon Sylstra It is and was garbage otherwise. So what Samuel did that season should be considered a minimum expected given his 2nd-round draft status and the notion that Anderson/Chosen is what he is, a WR that's averaged south of 700 yards and 4 TDs a season. The same argument was made by myself about Sherfield last season, met with the same stuff. He too was on teams with limited receiving options, so yeah, of course he (or anyone in the same situation) will get more targets than they normally would. Either way, Samuel isn't contending with just Moore and Anderson/Chosen here. He's contending with Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman, Knox, and MVS. Last season our top-5 targeted receivers posted 160, 91, 81, 54, and 45 targets. We threw less under Brady as well. The season prior to that even less. The #2 target getter over the past four seasons here has logged 91, 93, 112, and 107. Let's unrealistically suppose that Samuel's second in targets and logs an average of those, ... 101. Let's say he matches his career high 79.4% catch% for 80 grabs and his career average of 10.7/catch, ... 856 yards. But think about what that would mean, it would mean that Kincaid, Coleman, et al. are all behind him. I hope that we didn't expend 1st-round draft pick last season on a receiving TE that's going to put up performances akin to TEs taken notably later in drafts. I agree on the target issue. I think it's possible Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards - but not likely. I don't think it's "likely" that Shakir or anyone else does either. I certainly wouldn't put money on it. With a bunch of new receivers, and Brady adding new concepts to our scheme, it's really hard to guess. I suppose someone will emerge as Josh's favorite and/or the guy best suited to Brady's scheme and playcalling. That person could get 1,000+ yards because we will pass a bunch. But it's hard to say who that'll be. I wouldn't be shocked if Coleman proves to be better than you think and leads the team in receptions and yards. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Claypool resuscitates his career and takes targets & receptions away from the slow-of-foot rookie. Brady has said something to the effect that everyone needs to eat. Arguably, we have as many as 6 receivers that need to be fed, 2 TEs, and 2 RBs. Someone's going to go hungry. Brady and Josh will favor someone else and feed them seconds. I won't pretend to know who's going to end up skinny and who's getting fat. This position group excites my curiosity more than any other. And I'm really anxious to see what changes Brady's making to the offense. Quote
HappyDays Posted June 24 Posted June 24 1 hour ago, Mikey152 said: Everyone likes to move the goalposts...lets take the Chiefs the last two years, for example. The will say "yeah, their WR suck, but Kelce..." but barely even mention Kincaid and Knox as factors. Kelce is arguably the greatest pass catching TE of all time. I love Kincaid but that is quite the lofty expectation to make up for a below average WR corps. If I thought our defense was suddenly going to become elite in the playoffs I would feel better about the pass catchers. As it stands though I think we will need our offense to be the best offense in football to make up for the defense, and I'm sorry but I just don't see that. I think it would be a pleasant surprise if we have even the 5th ranked offense this year. Several best case scenarios have to come true to end up ranking even at that level, let alone higher. Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 (edited) 32 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Yeah really, he was factually lined up as a WR often as I said. Just check out his highlight reels from 2016. I don't care about anyone's first seasons in college. How he got to OSU doesn't concern us nor is it relevant at this point. Here's one video, some of his biggest plays are lined up as a WR. In 6 of his 7 receiving TDs he was clearly lined up as a WR, all but once on the outside. Either way, he's been unable to repeat his contributions at OSU here in the NFL. I suppose that we can hope that it changes this season, again, what, 8th season's the charm? I live in Columbus and saw a lot of those games live...what I am telling you is he was not a WR at OSU, but a RB that took snaps in the slot. He basically played the Percy Harvin role. 17 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Kelce is arguably the greatest pass catching TE of all time. I love Kincaid but that is quite the lofty expectation to make up for a below average WR corps. If I thought our defense was suddenly going to become elite in the playoffs I would feel better about the pass catchers. As it stands though I think we will need our offense to be the best offense in football to make up for the defense, and I'm sorry but I just don't see that. I think it would be a pleasant surprise if we have even the 5th ranked offense this year. Several best case scenarios have to come true to end up ranking even at that level, let alone higher. He's also 34. His targets and receptions were both down last season. Even if you assume no additional regression from him this season, I think it is safe to assume Kincaid's targets will increase (from 90) closer to TKs 130 or more. If that happens, I see no reason DK can't equal TK's 2023 production. They were already pretty similar from a rate perspective and Kincaid was a rookie. Edited June 24 by Mikey152 Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 28 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: Can we agree on one thing: This year, moreso than the last four years, will be reliant upon our OC (Brady in this case) to scheme mismatches. Even if we are bullish on our WR group there isn't one right now that opposing DCs sit down each week and go "We've got to throttle that guy" Maybe that guy is Shakir thriving when thrust into the spotlight or Coleman refines his game enough to be a physical matchup nightmare, or Curtis Samuel is able to fill the role Deebo has on the Niners, or one of our long shot acquisitions pans out. But right now, it's going to be on Brady to get these guys open I'm not saying it's impossible, but right now I am envisioning a lot of 2TE sets and a big focus on the run game to open the pass. Yes and no. I would say that it DOES need to focus more on spreading the ball around initially, as nobody on the current roster is proven as a 150+ target guy. That said, I think this is easily the most physically talented WR core Josh has ever had, and it isn't really close. Top to bottom, Catch %, size, speed is all better than it has ever been. Quote
ryguy101 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 Sports illustrated article says that the Bills inexperienced WR group is their biggest concern entering training camp Quote
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted June 24 Posted June 24 8 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: I agree on the target issue. I think it's possible Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards - but not likely. I don't think it's "likely" that Shakir or anyone else does either. I certainly wouldn't put money on it. With a bunch of new receivers, and Brady adding new concepts to our scheme, it's really hard to guess. I suppose someone will emerge as Josh's favorite and/or the guy best suited to Brady's scheme and playcalling. That person could get 1,000+ yards because we will pass a bunch. But it's hard to say who that'll be. I wouldn't be shocked if Coleman proves to be better than you think and leads the team in receptions and yards. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Claypool resuscitates his career and takes targets & receptions away from the slow-of-foot rookie. Brady has said something to the effect that everyone needs to eat. Arguably, we have as many as 6 receivers that need to be fed, 2 TEs, and 2 RBs. Someone's going to go hungry. Brady and Josh will favor someone else and feed them seconds. I won't pretend to know who's going to end up skinny and who's getting fat. This position group excites my curiosity more than any other. And I'm really anxious to see what changes Brady's making to the offense. I think it's entirely possible that the Bills have no one player eclipse 1000 yards receiving but have 2-3 at 800+ and a couple more topping 400 Can that win? Let's ask the Chiefs. Kelce and Rice each were just short of 1K and then there was a LARGE drop off (close to 500 yards) to their #3 I don't think it's unreasonable to forecast slightly higher numbers for Shakir and Kincaid to hit the 800 mark up from around 650 and that Cook at least hitting close to 1k combined (which would be a slight down year from last) 1 minute ago, Mikey152 said: Yes and no. I would say that it DOES need to focus more on spreading the ball around initially, as nobody on the current roster is proven as a 150+ target guy. That said, I think this is easily the most physically talented WR core Josh has ever had, and it isn't really close. Top to bottom, Catch %, size, speed is all better than it has ever been. Similarly to my post just above I think a "both things can be true" is possible Quote
Mikey152 Posted June 24 Posted June 24 2 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: I think it's entirely possible that the Bills have no one player eclipse 1000 yards receiving but have 2-3 at 800+ and a couple more topping 400 Can that win? Let's ask the Chiefs. Kelce and Rice each were just short of 1K and then there was a LARGE drop off (close to 500 yards) to their #3 I don't think it's unreasonable to forecast slightly higher numbers for Shakir and Kincaid to hit the 800 mark up from around 650 and that Cook at least hitting close to 1k combined (which would be a slight down year from last) Similarly to my post just above I think a "both things can be true" is possible I am pretty sure that is exactly what will happen, unless somebody like Claypool or Coleman take the reigns and become dominant. See my post earlier in the thread...Shakir had elite YPT last year, so he can get close to 1k with similar production and 80-90 targets. Even if he regresses a little, I think guys like Samuel, Cook, Coleman and MVS can also provide YPT north of 8. I think, top to bottom, that the WR core is going to have a higher catch % AND better YAC than at least the last two seasons WR. Let's face it, it wouldn't be hard. Quote
Einstein's Dog Posted June 24 Posted June 24 2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: I just have a different philosophy than Beane. If I had Josh Allen, my focus would be on his weapons and protection. That’s where I’d spend and that’s where I’d invest my prime draft assets. They haven’t done that. I’ve posted the data on here before but don’t feel like looking it up. Their philosophy has been, “if I have Josh Allen he will cover holes.” My philosophy would be, “if I have Josh Allen, let’s turbocharge him and worry about everything else later.” You will win BECAUSE of Josh Allen. If you throw 97, don’t spend a lot of time working on your average curveball. Try to turn 97 into 102. For me the frustration has come in feeling the Bills have a lot of potential in many of the offensive playmakers - Kincaid/Shakir/Cook. They were going to replace/improve G Davis and that could be with the rookie/Samuel. That just left getting one top tier expenditure. So close, but they didn't pull the trigger. Now the fear is this philosophy might turn long term. If they can be a playoff team with no expensive WR, maybe they keep doing it. It'll kill me. Great QB with rocket arm will be schemed by OC/FO to distribute the ball. 1 Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted June 24 Posted June 24 3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said: For me the frustration has come in feeling the Bills have a lot of potential in many of the offensive playmakers - Kincaid/Shakir/Cook. They were going to replace/improve G Davis and that could be with the rookie/Samuel. That just left getting one top tier expenditure. So close, but they didn't pull the trigger. Now the fear is this philosophy might turn long term. If they can be a playoff team with no expensive WR, maybe they keep doing it. It'll kill me. Great QB with rocket arm will be schemed by OC/FO to distribute the ball. Well said!! If you inserted someone at the top of the depth chart (1 of the big 3 from the draft) or a trade (Aiyuk, Higgins) you’d be okay. That would be an average WR room. They missed at the top and now they’re forcing everyone to have more responsibility than their skill sets warrant (at least at this point). 1 Quote
Augie Posted June 24 Posted June 24 Just now, Buffalo Boy said: And, here I though that We quietly got better🤔 Only in about half the threads…… Quote
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