I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better

[Mikey152]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think contract/market or draft position is probably as close to objective as we can get as observers.

 

Like we don’t argue that Coleman is better than MHJ, right? He might be, sure but we know that MHJ was WR1 in the draft and Coleman was not. 
 

So ultimately while contract isn’t perfect, and nothing is, what we do know is that Mooney commanded $5M more than Samuel despite worst numbers. Which would point to me that he had a higher market, which would also point to that he is thought of as more valuable. 
 

I like Samuel a lot. Him and Mooney were actually both my wishlist targets prior to the off-season. I thought Mooney was going to be completely undervalued by the league because he was held back by arguably the worst passer in the league. I was wrong, clearly the league saw what I saw, which is a guy who was held back by his garbage QB.

 

So yes, I think Mooney would walk in as WR1 in this room. His 1k yard season with Fields was more impressive than Samuel’s 800 yard season. Imo.

How so? 
 

Fields>Brdigewater, plus Mooney needed 140 targets to get those yards. Curtis put up his numbers with a lot less targets (97). He was fighting with guys like DJ Moore and Robbie Chosen for targets (and CMC, but he got hurt early), while Mooney was up against the shadow of Allen Robinson and the TE room.

 

In the two healthy seasons following their breakouts, Samuel put up considerably better numbers across the board with just as bad a QB and more WR competition. He was also drafted significantly higher and is much bigger.

 

again, I think the contract is more about things like fit, Second contract vs third contract, etc. For example, Curtis Samuels contract with Washington was 3 years for 34 mil...He was either a top 10 paid receiver or close to it last season before all the wild deals

 

But, and even though I don’t believe this…let’s call it a wash. Pitts and Kincaid cancel out and Samuel and Mooney cancel out. So it’s down to London and a bunch of scrubs vs. Coleman, Shakir, MVS, Hollins,  Knox and whoever is 6.

 

is that really a 12 spot difference?

Edited July 25 by Mikey152

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think contract/market or draft position is probably as close to objective as we can get as observers.

 

Like we don’t argue that Coleman is better than MHJ, right? He might be, sure but we know that MHJ was WR1 in the draft and Coleman was not. 
 

So ultimately while contract isn’t perfect, and nothing is, what we do know is that Mooney commanded $5M more than Samuel despite worst numbers. Which would point to me that he had a higher market, which would also point to that he is thought of as more valuable. 
 

I like Samuel a lot. Him and Mooney were actually both my wishlist targets prior to the off-season. I thought Mooney was going to be completely undervalued by the league because he was held back by arguably the worst passer in the league. I was wrong, clearly the league saw what I saw, which is a guy who was held back by his garbage QB.

 

So yes, I think Mooney would walk in as WR1 in this room. His 1k yard season with Fields was more impressive than Samuel’s 800 yard season. Imo.

 

My offseason realistic WR target list was also:

 

1. Mooney

2. Samuel

 

I think they are closer as players than you do. It is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other talent wise IMO. But Mooney is a proper outside receiver and Samuel is a move receiver. Outside was our need and is generally the more valuable spot which might also be reflected in the contracts they each got.

[Mikey152]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My offseason realistic WR target list was also:

 

1. Mooney

2. Samuel

 

I think they are closer as players than you do. It is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other talent wise IMO. But Mooney is a proper outside receiver and Samuel is a move receiver. Outside was our need and is generally the more valuable spot which might also be reflected in the contracts they each got.

Are we talking about the same Mooney? Dude is a stick. Flanker/slot.

 

While we are talking about wr:

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm

 

Curious about thoughts on this...

Edited July 25 by Mikey152

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Are we talking about the same Mooney? Dude is a stick. Flanker/slot.

 

While we are talking about wr:

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm

 

Curious about thoughts on this...

 

Okay he played in the slot more last year than I realised. His 1,000 yard season he played 70% outside. 

 

On the ESPN analytics don't they counter your point that Samuel is a good separator? He is valued at 36/99 and 136th best in the NFL at being open. I admit I don't fully follow what the metrics are alleging to show.

[Mikey152]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Okay he played in the slot more last year than I realised. His 1,000 yard season he played 70% outside. 

 

On the ESPN analytics don't they counter your point that Samuel is a good separator? He is valued at 36/99 and 136th best in the NFL at being open. I admit I don't fully follow what the metrics are alleging to show.

Yeah, it surprised me...Harmon has different metrics on reception perception. It was an honest question on the ESPN analytics...just stumbled upon it today. If I had to guess, I think it is a man vs. zone thing. This one doesn't seem to distinguish.

Edited July 25 by Mikey152

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

How so? 
 

Fields>Brdigewater, plus Mooney needed 140 targets to get those yards. Curtis put up his numbers with a lot less targets (97). He was fighting with guys like DJ Moore and Robbie Chosen for targets (and CMC, but he got hurt early), while Mooney was up against the shadow of Allen Robinson and the TE room.

 

In the two healthy seasons following their breakouts, Samuel put up considerably better numbers across the board with just as bad a QB and more WR competition. He was also drafted significantly higher and is much bigger.

 

again, I think the contract is more about things like fit, Second contract vs third contract, etc. For example, Curtis Samuels contract with Washington was 3 years for 34 mil...He was either a top 10 paid receiver or close to it last season before all the wild deals

 

But, and even though I don’t believe this…let’s call it a wash. Pitts and Kincaid cancel out and Samuel and Mooney cancel out. So it’s down to London and a bunch of scrubs vs. Coleman, Shakir, MVS, Hollins,  Knox and whoever is 6.

 

is that really a 12 spot difference?

Samuel’s 800 yard season came on a season where his team was 18th in the NFL in passing yards. He was behind 2 other 1k yard receivers in Chosen and Moore. It was also in 2020.

 

Mooney’s 1000 yard season, he was on a team that was 30th in passing yards and 29th in attempts. He was the only WR to break 500 yards. And it was in 2021.
 

Field > Bridgewater as a passer is such a bad take, it’s shocking. Teddy had a 10 year career after a terrible knee injury that almost ended his career. Fields is 3 years removed from being a first round pick and was traded for a 6th, after starting all of 22 and getting his team the first overall pick.

 

Come on bro.

Edited July 25 by FireChans

[Mikey152]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Samuel’s 800 yard season came on a season where his team was 18th in the NFL in passing yards. He was behind 2 other 1k yard receivers in Chosen and Moore. It was also in 2020.

 

Mooney’s 1000 yard season, he was on a team that was 30th in passing yards and 29th in attempts. He was the only WR to break 500 yards. And it was in 2021.
 

Field > Bridgewater as a passer is such a bad take, it’s shocking. Teddy had a 10 year career after a terrible knee injury that almost ended his career. Fields is 3 years removed from being a first round pick and was traded for a 6th, after starting all of 22 and getting his team the first overall pick.

 

Just terrible opinions lol

You're exhausting.

 

JF was the QB for 10 games, and Andy Dalton was the QB for 6 in 2021. And Teddy Bridgewater was not good in 2020...I don't care how you try and spin it.

 

Mooney put up 200 more yards on 43 more targets...in other words his YPT was way lower. Only had like 20 more scrimmage yards when you factor in carries.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

Are we talking about the same Mooney? Dude is a stick. Flanker/slot.

 

While we are talking about wr:

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm

 

Curious about thoughts on this...

That list makes NFL's "next gen stats" seem very sus. When you have players with historic seasons like Hill and Nakua down in the 20s, Amon Ra, Adams, Cooper and in the 40s, and Deebo, Diggs, Waddle in the 60s, it doesn't pass the smell test.

[Alphadawg7]

It’s pointless to argue talent between two players based on yardage totals when targets are drastically different.  
 

Both Mooney and Samuel had been saddled most of their career with poor QB situations.  Debating whose was worse is a pointless exercise like arguing over whose dogs poop smells worse.  
 

Samuel IMO was the better signing for our team both in fit, history (Brady connection), and contract (based on our cap issues this year).

 

Arguing which player is the “better” player before seeing either play with a credible QB is going to accomplish nothing until we see them play with real QBs.  

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You're exhausting.

 

JF was the QB for 10 games, and Andy Dalton was the QB for 6 in 2021. And Teddy Bridgewater was not good in 2020...I don't care how you try and spin it.

 

Mooney put up 200 more yards on 43 more targets...in other words his YPT was way lower. Only had like 20 more scrimmage yards when you factor in carries.

Fields averages 166 yards passing per game.

 

Bridgewater was terrible “just trust me bro.”

 

Come on bro.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Mooney would be the best WR on the Bills and our instant WR1.

 

That is just your opinion, and one I definitely do not share.  
 

If I am an NFL GM and I have to choose between Mooney and Kincaid, I’m taking Kincaid.  Shakir and Mooney…I am taking Shakir.  Keon and Mooney…I am taking the upside of Keon.  
 

I get you don’t believe in those 3 players to the same degree, but I would bet money that Beane wouldnt swap any of those 3 for Mooney.  And I’m not even saying Mooney is a bad player, just saying to say he would be our “best” and “our instant WR1” over all 3 of those guys is over the top and quite exaggerative given Keon hasn’t even started a game, Kincaid is just entering his 2nd year, and Shakir is coming off a year 2 breakout as he gets ready to start his 3rd as a major part of the offense.  
 

 

Edited July 25 by Alphadawg7

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

That is just your opinion, and one I definitely do not share.  
 

If I am an NFL GM and I have to choose between Mooney and Kincaid, I’m taking Kincaid.  Shakir and Mooney…I am taking Shakir.  Keon and Mooney…I am taking the upside of Keon.  
 

I get you don’t believe in those 3 players to the same degree, but I would bet money that Beane wouldnt swap any of those 3 for Mooney.  And I’m not even saying Mooney is a bad player, just saying to say he would be our “best” and “our instant WR1” over all 3 of those guys is over the top and quite exaggerative given Keon hasn’t even started a game, Kincaid is just entering his 2nd year, and Shakir is coming off a year 2 breakout as he gets ready to start his 3rd as a major part of the offense.  
 

 

if you were drafting a guy long term, maybe you pick Keon. 
 

for a game this weekend probably less enthusiastic about that WR1 status for Keon 

Edited July 25 by NoSaint

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

That is just your opinion, and one I definitely do not share.  
 

If I am an NFL GM and I have to choose between Mooney and Kincaid, I’m taking Kincaid.  Shakir and Mooney…I am taking Shakir.  Keon and Mooney…I am taking the upside of Keon.  
 

I get you don’t believe in those 3 players to the same degree, but I would bet money that Beane wouldnt swap any of those 3 for Mooney.  And I’m not even saying Mooney is a bad player, just saying to say he would be our “best” and “our instant WR1” over all 3 of those guys is over the top and quite exaggerative given Keon hasn’t even started a game, Kincaid is just entering his 2nd year, and Shakir is coming off a year 2 breakout as he gets ready to start his 3rd as a major part of the offense.  
 

 

Put another way, if the Bills had signed Mooney this off-season, is he penciled in as the starter at the boundary on day 1 of camp?

 

I think he is, comfortably. 

[3rdand12]

9 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

I'm gonna get killed for this, I know it already...but I think they're gonna try and use him like the Dolphins use Tyreek. Probably not featured like Tyreek is, but similar from the perspective that he plays as a flanker and is moving a ton presnap. Lots of targets between the 20s as their primary man beater.

Not much for killing these days

What leads you to think that ?

Especially after day two of camp.

 Do you mean Under twenty yards at point of reception ?

That makes sense so far. 

 

not that camp stats mean anything 😉

[MarlinTheMagician]

The OP's post was too much for me to wade through in detail, but I agree with the headline.  I think that quietly, and contrary to conventional wisdom, we have not just a better group, but a materially better group than we had last year.  Kincaid and Shakir will not be the same players they were last year, and they were already pretty damn good.  Coleman and Samuel are solid adds.  And Diggs is little to no loss at this point IMHO.  Whether due to decline in talent or attitude, he was pretty useless to us in the second half.  Samuel and Coleman will not be useless.  Far from it.  We are materially better.

 

 

[3rdand12]

56 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

if you were drafting a guy long term, maybe you pick Keon. 
 

for a game this weekend probably less enthusiastic about that WR1 status for Keon 

its a fair cop.

No idea what this product will look like on the field. For so many reasons that do not include history even,

How do we project Brady's vision for all these guys under the "everyone eats Mantra"

Good discussions of course from folks. But just that.

 

 Goes back to the math equations that , if Bills have enough pass catchers worth a sht , and they do

Brady will help Allen find the open one

The open one will actually catch the ball for a gain . And then possibly run like heck after 

The odds are better when the team have quite a few able bodies , and Allen can see them and Brady schemes them open.

 Long equation but not complicated

 

No one need to take the reins just yet, And if properly executed ? It might change from game to game and then from half to half as Defenses adjust

my two pennies

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Put another way, if the Bills had signed Mooney this off-season, is he penciled in as the starter at the boundary on day 1 of camp?

 

I think he is, comfortably. 

 

Sure if the Bills had signed Mooney he would be pencilled in as a boundary starter.  I think that Brady wanted Samuel over anyone else because of his versatility. 

[Meatloaf63]

23 hours ago, Avisan said:

Shakir's production under Brady extrapolates out to 906 yards over 17 games, which would have been 34th highest among all pass catchers last season.  That wasn't particularly difficult, unless you think we'll be unable or unwilling to use Shakir in the same way we did under Brady last season.

Except you can’t extrapolate what his production will be or would have been without balls being forced to Diggs.

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

its a fair cop.

No idea what this product will look like on the field. For so many reasons that do not include history even,

How do we project Brady's vision for all these guys under the "everyone eats Mantra"

Good discussions of course from folks. But just that.

 

 Goes back to the math equations that , if Bills have enough pass catchers worth a sht , and they do

Brady will help Allen find the open one

The open one will actually catch the ball for a gain . And then possibly run like heck after 

The odds are better when the team have quite a few able bodies , and Allen can see them and Brady schemes them open.

 Long equation but not complicated

 

No one need to take the reins just yet, And if properly executed ? It might change from game to game and then from half to half as Defenses adjust

my two pennies

 

It’s the poor man’s 49ers at the skill positions.

 

not wild to see deebo-aiyuk as the premium Samuel-shakir, right?

Kittle/kincaid is probably the least “poor man” comparison 

 

While I like cook, no cmc but they’ve dabbled in that usage 

 

the flip side is we have Josh instead of purdy so we are the aged out of a rookie qb deal version of it. Does that work? Probably most weeks. Does it beat the jags-bengals-chiefs-49ers in consecutive weeks after new years? Not impossible but I’d sure feel better with one proven matchup problem at outside WR

Edited July 26 by NoSaint

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Put another way, if the Bills had signed Mooney this off-season, is he penciled in as the starter at the boundary on day 1 of camp?

 

I think he is, comfortably. 

No, I don’t think so at all…he isn’t going to be over Keon who has taken all snaps with the 1’s and I seriously doubt he is going to be ahead of Samuel coming into camp who Brady wanted and has experience with.  If they valued him over Samuel they would have signed him.